Implementation of a Multiple System Estimation: The case of missing persons in the state of

Veracruz.

Miguel Angel Lopez Parra1*,, Ruth Elizabeth Aldama Rosas1, Julia Aurora Montano Rivas1.
1
Facultad de Estadística de la Universidad Veracruzana

*Corresponding Author

E-mail: miguel.parra0204@gmail.com

Problem

In the Mexican state of Veracruz, statistic data in matter about missing people coming from official
sources are deficient at present, preventing dimensioning the magnitude of the actual given
situation, since the statistics only show the optimistic scene possible.

Background

Since the beginning, Multiple System Estimations (MSE) have been widely used in Biology to
estimate wild populations’ sizes, and in Astronomy for stars’ estimations. However, in the past
years, MSEs have been utilized to estimate the total number of Human Rights violations starting
from the surveillance institutional records in charge of its fulfillment.

Objective

To estimate a total value of missing mexicans men and women in the state of Veraruz, between
2006 to 2018.

Methods

We utilized data from two main state institutions, General Prosecutor's Office of the State of
Veracruz (Fiscalía General del Estado de Veracruz) and Veracruz State Search Commission
(Comisión Estatal de Búsqueda de Veracruz) and from a federal source, the National Registry of
Missing People (Registro Nacional de Personas Desaparecidas). From a Bayesian approach, we look
for an estimation of the missing people distribution, starting with the inclusion and exclusion
patterns from the given information, using MSE techniques.

Results

The total counting of identified missing people from the three data records, sum up to 3154 persons
which, until 2018 were still in a missing status. Nevertheless, it’s obtained that, with a 95%
confidence interval, the total amount of missing persons in the state of Veracruz counts up to 4520
and 23176, with a 17020 median. Also, it was identified that a differentiated structure within the
differentiated structure given with the possible pattern between women and men.

Conclusion and Recommendation

The adjusted model is a first-degree approach for a real and quite accurate number of Mexican
men and women missing within the state of Veracruz. With the public statistics records given, it
has not been possible to proceed a bounded estimation, since, a fairly wide interval is observed in
the distribution.