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Estimation of Future Water Level Based On Rainfall Data Using ANN
Estimation of Future Water Level Based On Rainfall Data Using ANN
Abstract: A method for estimating water level at Sungai Bedup in Sarawak is presented here. The method makes use of Artificial
Neural Network (ANN) – a new tool that is capable of modeling various nonlinear hydrological processes. ANN was chosen based
on its ability to generalize patterns in imprecise or noisy and ambiguous input and output data sets. In this study, the networks were
developed to forecast daily water level for Sungai Bedup station. Specially designed networks were simulated using data obtained
from Drainage and Irrigation Department with MATLAB 6.5 computer software. Various training parameters were considered to
achieve the best result. ANN Recurrent Network using Backpropagation algorithm was adopted for this study.
Predicted
Output 3.METHODOLOGY
The neural networks (NN) models developed in this study Computer Modelling and New Technologies, vol. 14, no. 3,
were able to forecast the water levels of Sukhi Reservoir for pp. 48-62, 2010.
ten daily consecutive days beginning after a given day and [4] Golabi M, Radmanesh F,Akhondali A and Kashefipoor
given data for ten consecutive days prior to that day. Thus, M., “Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Using Artificial
NN provide an effective and timely method for forecasting Neural Networks (Case Study: Selected Stations of (Iran)
water levels in the reservoir. This can help in water-use Khozestan Province), ISSN 2090-4304, Journal of Basic and
formulation and scheduling for domestic, agricultural and Applied Scientific Research”, 2013.
municipal uses. Timely forecasting can also help in disaster [5] Jain S. K. and Chalisgaonkar , “Setting up stage-discharge
monitoring, response and control in areas prone to floods. For relations using ANN”, Journal of Hydrologic Engg., vol. 5,
power generation, effective and timely reservoir level no. 4, pp. 428-433.[6] Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M. and
forecasting can help in predicting power loads and Reinsel, G.C. Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control.
management of power generation for efficiency and McGraw-Hill Inc., USA, 1994.
optimisation. The number of feature groups and the number [6] Mahmood, Mustafa and Muhammed, “Application of
of elements in each feature group used as inputs Artificial Neural Networks to Forecast theRelease Water
greatlyinfluence the ability of NN to forecast reservoir levels from Haditha Dam”, Special Issue of Engineering and
accurately. The main conclusions obtained are as below: 1. Development Journal ISSN 1813-7822, 2012.
Soft computing technique like ANN is reliable and more
accurate than conventional methods. 2. On the basis of
performance evaluation of models, ANN model using Feed
Forward Back Propagation gave best results among three
developed ANN models. 3. This paper also demonstrates that
ANN technique give good results for more number of inputs.
Feed Forward Back propagation gives the best output having
RMSE; 0.92, Correlation Coefficient, R;0.97, Coefficient of
Determination, R 2; 0.95 and Discrepancy Ratio, D;1.00 in
comparison of Cascade which gives the output having
RMSE; 0.73, Correlation Coefficient, R; 0.98, Coefficient of
Determination, R 2; 0.96 and Discrepancy Ratio, D; 1.00 and
Elman which gives the output having RMSE;0.81,
Correlation Coefficient, R;0.98, Coefficient of
Determination, R 2 ; 0.95 and Discrepancy Ratio, D; 1.00.
Based on these results, it can be concluded that amongst the
three methods used for this study, ANN using Feed Forward
Backpropagation is an appropriate predictor for real-time
Water Level forecasting of Sukhi Reservoir Project.
6.REFERENCES