ECUACION LINEAL H (m)

n: CANTIDAD DE VALORES DE X o Y 4 n X
1 250
y= mX + b 2 300
3 550
(𝑛∗∑▒ 〖�∗� 〗−m=
∑▒〖� ∗ ∑▒�〗 )/(𝑛∗∑▒ 〖 = 〖
〖�2 −(∑▒ 〖�)0.0216
〗〗 2) 4 800

b= ӯ-m.ẍ = 10.260

AJUSTE DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS = Y = 0.0216 X +10.260

Ʃ 1900
COEFICIENTE DE Prom 475
R2= 0.9999
DETERMINACION
Y
30
25 f(x) = 0.0215584416x + 10.2597402597
20
15
10
5
0
200 300 400 500 600
 T (°C)
Y XY X2 Y2 Y calc. e e2 (Y-ӯ)2
15 3750 62500 225 15.649 -0.649 0.422 4489
17 5100 90000 289 16.727 0.273 0.074 4225
23 12650 302500 529 22.117 0.883 0.780 3481
27 21600 640000 729 27.506 -0.506 0.257 3025
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
82 43100 1095000 1772 1.532 15220.00
20.5 5387.5 136875 221.5

= 0.0215584416x + 10.2597402597

0 400 500 600 700 800 900

ITEM DESCRIPCION MONTO M1 M2 M3
1 ESTRUCTURAS 28,220,000.00 2,822,000.00 5,644,000.00 4,233,000.00
2 ARQUITECTURA 21,150,000.00 2,115,000.00 4,230,000.00
3 INS. SANITARIAS 7,050,000.00 352,500.00 1,410,000.00
4 INST. ELECTRICAS 10,575,000.00 528,750.00 1,586,250.00
5 EQUIP. MECANICO 3,525,000.00
COSTO DIRECTO 70,520,000.00 2,822,000.00 8,640,250.00 11,459,250.00
70,520,000.00 2,822,000.00 11,462,250.00 22,921,500.00

ITEM DESCRIPCION MONTO M1 M2 M3

1.1 ESTRUCTURAS 28,220,000.00 2,822,000.00 3,668,600.00 3,668,600.00
1.2 ARQUITECTURA 21,150,000.00 1,057,500.00 2,749,500.00
1.3 INS. SANITARIAS 7,050,000.00 211,500.00 493,500.00
1.4 INST. ELECTRICAS 10,575,000.00 211,500.00 740,250.00
1.5 EQUIP. MECANICO 3,525,000.00
COSTO DIRECTO 70,520,000.00 2,822,000.00 5,149,100.00 7,651,850.00
2,822,000.00 7,971,100.00 15,622,950.00

DESCRIPCION MONTO % Valorizacion Actual.

1.10 ESTRUCTURAS 28,220,000.00 40% 1,411,000.00
1.20 ARQUITECTURA 21,150,000.00 30% 1,057,500.00
1.30 INS. SANITARIAS 7,050,000.00 10% 352,500.00
1.40 INST. ELECTRICAS 10,575,000.00 15% 528,750.00
1.50 EQUIP. MECANICO 3,525,000.00 5% 176,250.00
100%
COSTO DIRECTO 70,520,000.00 100% 3,526,000.00
V1 3,561,260.00
 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9
4,233,000.00 4,233,000.00 2,822,000.00 2,822,000.00 1,411,000.00
3,172,500.00 3,172,500.00 2,115,000.00 2,115,000.00 2,115,000.00 2,115,000.00
1,057,500.00 1,057,500.00 705,000.00 705,000.00 705,000.00 705,000.00
1,586,250.00 1,586,250.00 1,586,250.00 1,057,500.00 1,057,500.00 1,057,500.00
1,175,000.00 1,175,000.00
10,049,250.00 10,049,250.00 7,228,250.00 6,699,500.00 6,463,500.00 5,052,500.00
32,970,750.00 43,020,000.00 50,248,250.00 56,947,750.00 63,411,250.00 68,463,750.00

M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9
3,668,600.00 3,386,400.00 3,386,400.00 3,386,400.00 2,822,000.00 1,411,000.00
2,749,500.00 2,749,500.00 2,538,000.00 2,538,000.00 2,538,000.00 2,115,000.00
705,000.00 705,000.00 846,000.00 846,000.00 846,000.00 846,000.00
1,057,500.00 1,057,500.00 1,057,500.00 1,057,500.00 1,269,000.00 1,269,000.00
352,500.00 528,750.00
8,180,600.00 7,898,400.00 7,827,900.00 7,827,900.00 7,827,500.00 6,169,750.00
23,803,550.00 31,701,950.00 39,529,850.00 47,357,750.00 55,185,250.00 61,355,000.00

Valorizacion restante CURVA "S"

26,809,000.00
80,000,000.00
20,092,500.00 70,000,000.00
6,697,500.00 60,000,000.00
50,000,000.00
10,046,250.00
40,000,000.00
3,348,750.00 30,000,000.00
5.0% 20,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
66,994,000.00 95.00% -
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Row 9 Row 18
 M10

352,500.00
528,750.00
1,175,000.00
2,056,250.00
70,520,000.00

M10
28,220,000.00
2,115,000.00 21,150,000.00
846,000.00 6,345,000.00
1,269,000.00 8,988,750.00
528,750.00 1,410,000.00
4,758,750.00 66,113,750.00
66,113,750.00

CURVA "S"

4 5 6 7 8 9 10
ow 9 Row 18
 427066193.xlsx

A B C D E F
1 CÁLCULO DE INTERVALOS DE CONFIANZA PARA LA MEDIA
2 Estadístico z
3 (para N grandes)
4 media = 1877.75 80% 2 colas 1.2816 90% 1 cola
5 desviación estándar = 1,667 90% 2 colas 1.6448 95% 1 cola
6 tamaño muestral (N) 50 95% 2 cola 1.96 97,5% 1 cola
7 99% 2 colas 2.58 995% 1 cola
8
9 valor límites = media +- (d*z/(N)^0,5)
10
11 Nivel de confianza 90% (2 colas) 95% (dos colas) 99% (dos colas)
12 límite inferior 1490 1416 1270
13 media 1878 1878 1878
14 límite superior 2265 2340 2486

Page 6
CÁLCULO DE INTERVALOS PARA PROPORCIONES
Estadístico z
(para N grandes)
p proporción= 0.8 80% 2 colas 1.2816 90% 1 cola
(1-p)= 0.2 90% 2 colas 1.6448 95% 1 cola
N= 600 95% 2 cola 1.96 97,5% 1 cola
99% 2 colas 2.58 995% 1 cola

z= 1.96
e=z ([p (1-p) / N]^0,5)

margen de error = más menos 0.032 3.20%

lower bound 0.76799333
higher 0.83200667
media muestral 0.8

90% (2 colas) 95% (dos colas) 99% (dos colas)

lower bound 77.31% 76.80% 75.79%
Mean 80.00% 80.00% 80.00%
higher bound 82.69% 83.20% 75.79%
 Parámetros Estadísticos
n: 0.00 Número de datos
X: 69.00 Promedio
Md: Mediana
s: 2.00 Desviación Estándar
s^2: Err:504 Varianza

Estimar la probabilidad mayores a: 72 m3/s en un año

P ( z > 72 )

→ log 72 = 1.857

Z = 1.50 → Por tabla: 0.9332 0.0668

Rpta 93.32%

Si un cierto cultivo experimental requiere entre 110 y 25

de módulo de descarga media anual para su simulación; indicar las probabilidades estimadas.

P ( 25 < X < 110

Log 25 = 1.398
Log 110 = 2.041

P ( -33.80 < Z < -33.48

→ p ( Z < -33.479 )
─ P ( Z < -33.801 )

Por tabla: 0.0000 ─ 0.0000 = 0.0000

P= 0.00% >>>>>>>> Tr = ###

Estimar la descarga media anual de diseño para 5 años de periodo de retorno con sus respectivos valores d
P = 0.80 → Por tabla Z =
Log X = 70.68
Q= ### m3/s

Rieso de falla siendo la vida esperada del proyecto 5 años

J = 0.9997 ≈ 1.0

Tr  1
P J  1  (1  p) n
Tr
3/s en un año

m3/seg

de retorno con sus respectivos valores de probabilidad

0.8416
 Prueba de Hipotesis para media:
Datos del problema muestra grande

X-Barra 54.5 Media Hipotetica 56

S^2 25
n 49
alpha 90%

Tipo p-value
H0: mu = 56 0.0357 rechazo
Valor de z y probabilidad de que su valor sea excedido

Probabilidad (una cola) P

Una cola Inverso Distribucion Normal Estandar Acumulativa

Segundo decimal de p
p 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08
0.0 #VALUE!
¥ -2.3263 -2.0537 -1.8808 -1.7507 -1.6449 -1.5548 -1.4758 -1.4051
0.1 -1.2816 -1.2265 -1.1750 -1.1264 -1.0803 -1.0364 -0.9945 -0.9542 -0.9154
0.2 -0.8416 -0.8064 -0.7722 -0.7388 -0.7063 -0.6745 -0.6433 -0.6128 -0.5828
0.3 -0.5244 -0.4959 -0.4677 -0.4399 -0.4125 -0.3853 -0.3585 -0.3319 -0.3055
0.4 -0.2533 -0.2275 -0.2019 -0.1764 -0.1510 -0.1257 -0.1004 -0.0753 -0.0502
0.5 0.0000 0.0251 0.0502 0.0753 0.1004 0.1257 0.1510 0.1764 0.2019
0.6 0.2533 0.2793 0.3055 0.3319 0.3585 0.3853 0.4125 0.4399 0.4677
0.7 0.5244 0.5534 0.5828 0.6128 0.6433 0.6745 0.7063 0.7388 0.7722
0.8 0.8416 0.8779 0.9154 0.9542 0.9945 1.0364 1.0803 1.1264 1.1750
0.9 1.2816 1.3408 1.4051 1.4758 1.5548 1.6449 1.7507 1.8808 2.0537

p 0.0020 0.0010 0.0001 0.00001 0.000001 1.0E-20

z -2.8782 -3.0902 -3.7190 -4.2649 -4.7534 -9.2623

Probabilidad (dos colas) P

Dos colas Inverso Distribucion Normal Estandar Acumulativa

Segundo decimal de p
p 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08
0.0 #VALUE!
¥ 2.5758 2.3263 2.1701 2.0537 1.9600 1.8808 1.8119 1.7507
0.1 1.6449 1.5982 1.5548 1.5141 1.4758 1.4395 1.4051 1.3722 1.3408
0.2 1.2816 1.2536 1.2265 1.2004 1.1750 1.1503 1.1264 1.1031 1.0803
0.3 1.0364 1.0152 0.9945 0.9741 0.9542 0.9346 0.9154 0.8965 0.8779
0.4 0.8416 0.8239 0.8064 0.7892 0.7722 0.7554 0.7388 0.7225 0.7063
0.5 0.6745 0.6588 0.6433 0.6280 0.6128 0.5978 0.5828 0.5681 0.5534
0.6 0.5244 0.5101 0.4959 0.4817 0.4677 0.4538 0.4399 0.4261 0.4125
0.7 0.3853 0.3719 0.3585 0.3451 0.3319 0.3186 0.3055 0.2924 0.2793
0.8 0.2533 0.2404 0.2275 0.2147 0.2019 0.1891 0.1764 0.1637 0.1510
0.9 0.1257 0.1130 0.1004 0.0878 0.0753 0.0627 0.0502 0.0376 0.0251

p 0.0020 0.0010 0.0001 0.00001 0.000001 1.0E-20

z 3.0902 3.2905 3.8906 4.4172 4.8916 9.3360
0.035729
-1.80

0.09
-1.3408
-0.8779
-0.5534
-0.2793
-0.0251
0.2275
0.4959
0.8064
1.2265
2.3263

0.035729
2.10 DIFIERE ENTONCES ES NEGATIVO

0.09
1.6954
1.3106
1.0581
0.8596
0.6903
0.5388
0.3989
0.2663
0.1383
0.0125