Lupin Limited

Net Sales (in Rs. Cr.) Consumption of Raw Purchase of Traded

Financial Year Quarter Materials (in Rs. Cr.) Goods (in Rs. Cr.)
2013-14 Jun '13 2,420.66 574.43 434.21
2013-14 Sep '13 2,631.46 619.74 363.41
2013-14 Dec '13 2,982.97 609.32 375.00
2013-14 Mar '14 3,051.55 617.87 423.81
2014-15 Jun '14 3,283.95 616.54 438.78
2014-15 Sep '14 3,116.81 650.21 440.47
2014-15 Dec '14 3,144.91 625.39 461.58
2014-15 Mar '15 3,054.04 627.28 442.48
2015-16 Jun '15 3,080.87 689.40 495.00
2015-16 Sep '15 3,192.61 714.94 535.22
2015-16 Dec '15 3,350.33 684.74 495.67
2015-16 Mar '16 4,108.98 669.59 493.93
2016-17 Jun '16 4,313.56 772.70 544.37
2016-17 Sep '16 4,211.18 699.07 560.78
2016-17 Dec '16 4,404.94 745.58 662.20
2016-17 Mar '17 4,161.88 731.31 623.30
2017-18 Jun '17 3,806.83 692.74 423.95
2017-18 Sep '17 3,874.16 646.60 535.28
2017-18 Dec '17 3,900.36 740.70 637.35
2017-18 Mar '18 3,978.49 875.39 559.61
2018-19 Jun '18 3,774.57 862.75 625.53
2018-19 Sep '18 3,890.93 873.50 628.09
2018-19 Dec '18 - - -
2018-19 Mar '19 - - -
Financial Year Quarter Net Sales (in Rs. Cr.)
1 2,420.66
2 2,631.46
2013-14
3 2,982.97
4 3,051.55
1 3,283.95
2 3,116.81
2014-15
3 3,144.91
4 3,054.04
1 3,080.87
2 3,192.61
2015-16
3 3,350.33
4 4,108.98
1 4,313.56
2 4,211.18
2016-17
3 4,404.94
4 4,161.88
1 3,806.83
2 3,874.16
2017-18
3 3,900.36
4 3,978.49
 Lupin Limited

5,000.00
4,500.00
4,000.00
3,500.00
Net Sales (in Rs. Cr.)

3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Quarter
Financial Year
 3 4 1 2 3 4
-17 2017-18
 t Net Sales (In Rs. Cr.) (Yt ) t*Yt t²
1 2,420.660 2,420.660 1
2 2,631.460 5,262.920 4
3 2,982.970 8,948.910 9
4 3,051.550 12,206.200 16
5 3,283.950 16,419.750 25
6 3,116.810 18,700.860 36
7 3,144.910 22,014.370 49
8 3,054.040 24,432.320 64
9 3,080.870 27,727.830 81
10 3,192.610 31,926.100 100
11 3,350.330 36,853.630 121
12 4,108.980 49,307.760 144
13 4,313.560 56,076.280 169
14 4,211.180 58,956.520 196
15 4,404.940 66,074.100 225
16 4,161.880 66,590.080 256
17 3,806.830 64,716.110 289
18 3,874.160 69,734.880 324
19 3,900.360 74,106.840 361
20 3,978.490 79,569.800 400
Total 210 70,070.540 792,045.920 2870

4392.5572631579
For a linear trend, the estimated sales volume rxpressed as a fnction of Time is,
T t = b 0 + b 1t
where
Tt = trend value forsales in period t
b0 = intercept ofthe trend line
b1 = slope of the trend line

The equations for computing b1 and b0 are

b1 = [∑tYt - (∑t ∑Yt )/n] / [ ∑t² - (∑t²)/n]

b0 = Ȳ - b1ṫ

where
Yt = actual value of the time series in period t
n = number of period
Ȳ = average value of the time series
ṫ = average value of t
Tt = 2641.492 + 84.67t
me is,
 Centerered
Four-Quarter
Financial Year Quarter Net Sales (in Rs. Cr.) (Yt) Moving Moving
Average Average
1 2,420.66
2 2,631.46 2771.660
2013-14
3 2,982.97 2987.483 2879.571
4 3,051.55 3108.820 3048.151
1 3,283.95 3149.305 3129.063
2 3,116.81 3149.928 3149.616
2014-15
3 3,144.91 3099.158 3124.543
4 3,054.04 3118.108 3108.633
1 3,080.87 3169.463 3143.785
2 3,192.61 3433.198 3301.330
2015-16
3 3,350.33 3741.370 3587.284
4 4,108.98 3996.013 3868.691
1 4,313.56 4259.665 4127.839
2 4,211.18 4272.890 4266.278
2016-17
3 4,404.94 4146.208 4209.549
4 4,161.88 4061.953 4104.080
1 3,806.83 3935.808 3998.880
2 3,874.16 3889.960 3912.884
2017-18
3 3,900.36
4 3,978.49
 Deseasonalised Sales
Seasonal-Irregular Seasonal (In Rs. Cr.) (Yt Seasonal-Irregular
Index (St) Quarter Component Values (S I )
Value /St=TtIt) t t

1.007 2405.027 1 1.049,0.980,1.045,0.952

0.984 2675.608 2 0.990,0.967,0.987,0.990
1.036 1.006 2965.916 3 1.036,1.007,0.934,1.046
1.001 1.015 3007.194 4 1.001,0.982,1.062,1.014
1.049 1.007 3262.742
0.990 0.984 3169.100
1.007 1.006 3126.930
0.982 1.015 3009.648
0.980 1.007 3060.974
0.967 0.984 3246.172
0.934 1.006 3331.176
1.062 1.015 4049.254
1.045 1.007 4285.703
0.987 0.984 4281.830
1.046 1.006 4379.756
1.014 1.015 4101.385
0.952 1.007 3782.245
0.990 0.984 3939.156
1.006 3878.061
1.015 3920.660
 Seasonal
Index (St)

1.007
0.984
1.006
1.015
 Deseasonalised
t Sales (In Rs. Cr.) t*Yt t²
(Yt )

1 2405.027 2405.027 1 For a linear tren

2 2675.608 5351.215 4 Tt = b0 + b1t
3 2965.916 8897.748 9 where
Tt = trend value
4 3007.194 12028.776 16
b0 = intercept oft
5 3262.742 16313.711 25
b1 = slope of the
6 3169.100 19014.601 36
7 3126.930 21888.511 49 The equations fo
8 3009.648 24077.182 64
9 3060.974 27548.763 81 b1 = [∑tYt - (∑t ∑Y
10 3246.172 32461.718 100
b0 = Ȳ - b1ṫ
11 3331.176 36642.933 121
12 4049.254 48591.042 144 where
13 4285.703 55714.138 169 Yt = actual value
14 4281.830 59945.623 196 n = number of p
15 4379.756 65696.346 225 Ȳ = average valu
ṫ = average value
16 4101.385 65622.153 256 Tt = 2613.295 + 83
17 3782.245 64298.172 289
18 3939.156 70904.809 324
19 3878.061 73683.162 361
20 3920.660 78413.205 400
Total 210 69878.537 789498.835 2870

4374.5721043
For a linear trend, the estimated sales volume rxpressed as a fnction of Time is,
Tt = b0 + b1t
where
Tt = trend value forsales in period t
b0 = intercept ofthe trend line
b1 = slope of the trend line

The equations for computing b1 and b0 are

b1 = [∑tYt - (∑t ∑Yt )/n] / [ ∑t² - (∑t)²/n]

b0 = Ȳ - b1ṫ

where
Yt = actual value of the time series in period t
n = number of period
Ȳ = average value of the time series
ṫ = average value of t
Tt = 2613.295 + 83.87t
 Deseasonalized Sales
Financial Year Quarter (in Rs. Cr.)
1 2,405.03
2 2,675.61 5,000.00
2013-14
3 2,965.92 4,500.00
4 3,007.19
4,000.00

Deseasonalized Sales (in Rs. Cr.)

1 3,262.74
2 3,169.10 3,500.00
2014-15
3 3,126.93 3,000.00
4 3,009.65
2,500.00
1 3,060.97
2 3,246.17 2,000.00
2015-16
3 3,331.18 1,500.00
4 4,049.25
1 4,285.70 1,000.00
2 4,281.83 500.00
2016-17
3 4,379.76
0.00
4 4,101.38 1 2 3 4 1 2
1 3,782.25 2013-14 2014-
2 3,939.16
2017-18
3 3,878.06
4 3,920.66
 Lupin Limited

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Quarter
Financial Year
 Financial Year Quarter
2013-14 Jun '13
2013-14 Sep '13
2013-14 Dec '13
2013-14 Mar '14
2014-15 Jun '14
2014-15 Sep '14
2014-15 Dec '14
2014-15 Mar '15
2015-16 Jun '15
2015-16 Sep '15
2015-16 Dec '15
2015-16 Mar '16
2016-17 Jun '16
2016-17 Sep '16
2016-17 Dec '16
2016-17 Mar '17
2017-18 Jun '17
2017-18 Sep '17
2017-18 Dec '17
2017-18 Mar '18

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8111410645
R Square 0.6579498265
Adjusted R Square 0.6177086297
Standard Error 364.8932779
Observations 20

ANOVA
df
Regression 2
Residual 17
Total 19

Coefficients
Intercept -261.1337477
Consumption of Raw Materials (in Rs. Cr.) 2.7550789553
Purchase of Traded Goods (in Rs. Cr.) 3.8018165551
Consumption of Raw Materials (in Rs. Cr.) Purchase of Traded Goods (in Rs. Cr.)
574.43 434.21
619.74 363.41
609.32 375.00
617.87 423.81
616.54 438.78
650.21 440.47
625.39 461.58
627.28 442.48
689.40 495.00
714.94 535.22
684.74 495.67
669.59 493.93
772.70 544.37
699.07 560.78
745.58 662.20
731.31 623.30
692.74 423.95
646.60 535.28
740.70 637.35
875.39 559.61

Coefficients
Intercept -261.1337477421
Consumption of Raw Materials (in Rs. Cr.) 2.7550789553
Purchase of Traded Goods (in Rs. Cr.) 3.8018165551

SS MS
4353951.71848354 2176975.85924177
2263500.77233646 133147.104255086
6617452.49082

Standard Error t Stat

818.889793124 -0.3188875352
1.6992847778 1.6213167983
1.4275697786 2.6631388617
Net Sales (in Rs. Cr.)
2,420.66
2,631.46
2,982.97
3,051.55
3,283.95
3,116.81
3,144.91
3,054.04
3,080.87
3,192.61
3,350.33
4,108.98
4,313.56
4,211.18
4,404.94
4,161.88
3,806.83
3,874.16
3,900.36
3,978.49

F Significance F
16.3501555022 0.0001095881

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

0.7536965378 -1988.8401898 1466.573 -1988.84 1466.5726943
0.1233484314 -0.8300985401 6.340256 -0.8301 6.3402564507
0.0163867605 0.7899075978 6.813726 0.789908 6.8137255124