PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF EXTREME WIND SPEEDS IN SUDAN Abu Baker A.Wahab* Yahia E.A Mohamedzein** and Asim El,Sanosi * Abstract: xtreme value analysis of wind data for 23 stations in the Sudan is described, Methods of order statistic ss well as metho The probabilistic distribution that b. moments are used for the analysis of win odel is verified by the plot correlation coefficient test to decide upon the type of fits the data. The analysis revealed that the largest winds for all stations are best y Type distribution. Basie design wind speeds are calculated at each station and isotach speeds distribution for the 23 stations, naps for Sudan for 2 50 and 100 years recurrence intervals are presented as specified in ANSI A 58.1. introduction: wind is caused by atmospheric pressure fferentials which rises over the surface of the earth. The acceleration produced by these pressure differentials is accompanied by geostrophic acceleration due to curvature and tation of the earth. The resultant of these tations produces a motion of free air parallel to the lines of equal barometric pressure (isobars), The velocity of the free air is known as the gradient velocity. This velocity is only attained at very high levels above ground. Closer to the ground, the wind is retarded by frictional forces and obstructions and vertical stress produces vertical exchange of momentum by turbulence. Turbulence also causes rapid fluctuation in the velocity with a wide range of frequencies and amplitudes . The velocity at lower levels, therefore, is expressed in terms of mean speed{1]. Horizontal air motion is caused by variation of air density which, in general is due to unequal heating of the earth surface. Consequently wind speed is proportional to the magnitude of density gradient ot temperature differences. In the semi arid belt of Central Africa latitudinal temperature gradient is stronger during winter season than in summer. Accordingly the mean wind speed is higher in winter. Nevertheless the highest maximum gusts occur in summer and are caused by thunderstorms down draft, a downrush of rain cooled air from thunder clouds spreading radially at the surface{2]. The downdraft travel with the parent clouds which generally move from east to west and cover relatively small area. ‘Thunderstorms develop within the humid southerly airstream which affects the southem part of the semi-arid belt in March and conventionally spreads northwards to a mean northerly boundary positioned around latitude 20°N in August. The boundary of the humid air, called the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), varies in position now and then, but the tropic of Cancer (23° 30/N) may be taken as the ITCZ envelope all the area in Sudan south of ITCZ envelope, is liable to be subjected to thunderstorms and the associated wind gusts. Wind loads are important for the design of structures such as tall buildings, towers, warehouses ete... This paper studies the distribution of the extreme annual wind speeds over the Sudan to be able to assess the induced loads on structures.’ Salih [1] made a preliminary contribution in 1978 in the analysis of wind speed meking use of 15 stations in the Sudan. Hago[3] in 1987 was able to collect additional data and he followed similar technique adopted by Salih. In this study the number of stations is extended to 23, the original data is verified and augmented by as much as 20 years record in some stations, The data is well scrutinized — and more rigorous analysis is adopted to estimate the wind * Faculty of Engineering and Arch. Khartoum University. ** Building & Road Research Institute, U. of K. o—speed. Isotach maps for 25, 50 and 100 year mean recurrence intervals, as recommended by the American National Structural Institute ANSI # 58.1-82[4], are drawn on. the geographical map of the Sudan to be available for engineers to implement. 2. MEASURMENTS OF WIND VELOCITIES ing the basic wind speeds for the ign of structures, the following basic fundamentals must be considered in determining the interval for measurements of wind velocities: a) The interval should coincide as far as possible with some natural periodicity of the wind. In b). The interval should be long compared to the natural frequency of the structure and the response time of the ‘instrument. ©) The interval should be adequate enough to record the peaks of sever storms. d) The interval should correspond to a body of air of sufficient size to envelope a structure The “mile wind’ or the ‘minute wind’ both ‘present suitable intervals for measuring high velocities for the purpose of structural analysis. Data everaged over short intervals like highest gust, 5 second average can, in certain, cases, be affected by strong turbulence Which results in unrealistic picture of the mean winds. The mile of wind has been recommended for use in the United ited Kingdom, In the Sudan all instruments in all stations are calibrated for 5 minute interval. 3. SURFACE ROUGHNESS The effect of surface roughness on the profile of wind storms is very important. Surface roughness is defined as the cumulative statistic drag effect of many obstructions in the wind flow. The surface roughness is characterized by the density, size and height of buildings, trees, vegetation, rocks ... etc., on the ground around and over which the wind blows. It will be a minimum over oceans and a maximum in large cities. Various empirical and semi-empirical formulas have been derived to represent the variation of wind velocity with height. The most familiar of those is the logarithmic and experimental profiles[5,6]. For structural purpose the experimental or power law profile has been used most widely, This can be stated as: a ae ly Where V, is the velocity at height z above ground and k and q@ are constants. The power law is applicable only on layers extending from the ground up to the height at which the gradient velocity is attained. Above this height the wind velocity is regarded as constant. The exponents L/a corresponding to accumulated experimental results as given in Ref[6]. Its value varies from 1/11.65 to 1/25 depending on the surface characteristics. WIND DATA IN SUDAN The data of the highest wind speeds available in the + Meteorological Department includes records at 23 stations well distributed over the Sudan. The period of continuous records for these stations range from 15 to 48 years which is desirable for parabolistic analysis. The type of recording instrument used in Sudan is the Dines Pressure Tube anermograph MK II with a response frequency ranging from one to 10 seconds. Seven of these instrument are situated at airports while the other sixteen are situated in towns with low rise buildings. The anemometer heights for the different stations are not the same. A profile of the monitoring stations indicating the years of records and anemometer height is given in Table (1). 5. RELIABILITY OF DATA In order-for the wind speed data-to give acceptable results they must be reliable and homogenous. Recording _ instruments —| [—Aar Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 No.39 )should be adequately maintained and properly situated away from calibrated, well nearby obstructions. | Measured data is considered homogenous when they are exposed to identical conditions averaging time, height above ground and roughness of the surrounding terrain. The Meteorological Department used to have very capable staff in the last decades monitoring the recording instruments. Same type of instrument has been in use for all stations with same averaging time. As the recommended standard instrument height is 10m above ground. the instrument height at each station is adjusted to the standard height by the power law. Appropriate values of the exponent in the power law equation are selected for different exposure of each station. A good effort has been done in collecting, verifying and adjusting the available data. However, if at any time in the future new information is obtained about the quality of measurement, it is possible to be evaluated and the data will be adjusted accordingly. 6. DESIGN WIND SPEED Formerly, it was a common practice to design structures to resist the highest wind ever recorded. Though this provided a yardstick to decide upon the load acting on the structure, it is not reliable as most meteorological records could be broken if the period of record is increased. The theory of extreme values has been successfully used in civil engineering applications. Floods, winds, earthquakes are all variables whose largest value in a sequence may be critical to civil engineering systems. Wind speeds with various mean recurrence intervals can generally be estimated by extreme value analysis of the largest yearly winds. At any given station at which wind records are available over a number of years, a random variable may be defined, which consists of the largest wind speed for every year on record. Using these records cumulative distribution function (C.DE.) of the random variable may be estimated to characterize the probabilistic behaviour of the year wind speeds. The basic design wind speed is defined as the speed corresponding to a specific value Fy of the CDF or equivalently in view of the relation N = M(l- F) in which N = mean recurrence interval. The American National Standard A.S8 specifics that a basic design wind speed corresponding to 50 years mean recurrence interval is to be used in designing all permanent structures,(i.e. to the value F, of the CDF equal to 0.98 or to the probability of exceedence of the basic wind speed in any one year equal to .02. For structures with high degree of hazard to life a 100 year mean recurrence interval (F, = 0.99) is to be used and for structures with small degree of risk to humen life a25 year mean recurrence (Fy = 0.96) may be used. 7. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF THE LARGEST YEARLY WIND SPEED Probabilistic considerations as well as available empirical evidence suggest that the asymptotic probability distributions of the largest values with unlimited upper tail are an appropriate model for the behavior of the largest yearly wind speed. There are two distributions known as Type I and Type Il distribution of the largest values. Type 1 (Gambel) cumulative distribution function; F\(v) is given as follows: F; = expl-exp((v-L/o)] Q) OKV0 == Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 $3418) — I —