From: David Thompson <davet@atmos.colostate.

edu>
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: Your ENSO series
Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2008 14:07:14 +0000

Phil,

If it works, let's plan on me visiting for the day April 30 (I'll come out April
29; leave
May 1). I'll put the date on my calendar and assume it works unless I hear
otherwise. If
there is a better day that week, please let me know.

Thanks,

Dave

Dave,
Will send on your details to the seminar organizer here. The week
of April 28 - May 2 is OK for me. I hope this is what you meant by
last week.
A few thoughts on the plots.
1. There isn't a drop off in land data around 1945 - nor during WW2.
So this is different from the ocean data. Most series are complete
or have been slightly infilled during the period in Europe. Berlin
for example only missed one day's T obs in April 45.
2. Fuego could be underestimated.
3. It could also be that sulphate emissions were very high at this time
- late 60s, early 70s.
I'll await the text !
Cheers
Phil
At 16:18 19/02/2008, you wrote:

Hi Phil,
I'd enjoy visiting.... how does the first or last week of April look
to you?
As for some new results:
I've attached two figures. Both focus on the land data.
The first figure includes 4 time series. From top to bottom: the
global-mean land data (CRUTEM 3); the ENSO fit; the COWL fit; the
residual global-mean time series. There is nothing here you haven't
seen before - the residual land time series is identical to the one
in the Nature paper.
As we've discussed, the residual land time series highlights the
signature of the volcanos. And as far as low frequency variability
goes: the residual land time series supports the IPCC contention that
the global warmed from ~1900-1940; did not warm from ~1940-1980; and
warmed substantially from 1980 to present.
OK.... so now I'm going to play with removing the volcanic signal.
There are a lot of ways to do this, and I haven't settled on the best
method. For now, I am driving the simple climate model I've been
using for ENSO with the Ammann et al. volcanic forcing time series. I
get identical results using Crowley's estimate and Sato's estimate.
The figure on page 2 shows the effect of removing the volcanic
signal. From top to bottom: the the global-mean residual land time
series (repeated from the previous figure); the volcanic fit; the
'ENSO/COWL/Volcano' residual land time series.
Some key points:
1. the volcanic fit isn't perfect, but captures most of the volcanic
signal.
2. the residual time series (bottom of Fig 2) is interesting. If you
look closely, it suggests the globe has warmed continuously since
1900 with two exceptions: a 'bite' in the 1970s, and a downwards
'step' in 1945. The step in 1945 is not as dramatic as the step in
the ocean data. But it's there. (I'm guessing the corresponding
change in variance is due to a sudden increase in data coverage).
3. the volcanic fit highlights the fact that the lack of warming in
the middle part of the century comes from only two features: the step
in 45 and Agung. When Agung is removed, land temperatures march
upwards from 1945-1970 (Fig 2 bottom).
4. the bite in the 1970s could be due to an underestimate of the
impact of Fuego (the bite is also evident in the SST data).
What do you think? The step in 1945 is not as dramatic as the step in
the SST data. But it's certainly there. It's evident in the COWL/ENSO
residual time series (top of Fig 2): removing Agung simply clarifies
that without the step temperatures marched steadily upwards from
1900-1970.
-Dave

On Feb 19, 2008, at 1:28 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

Dave,
Thanks.
Before seeing what you send, I think I'll find it harder to believe
something is wrong with the land data. I can be convinced though....
So you're in Reading now. Do you still want to come up to
distant Norwich
at some point and also give a talk?
Cheers
Phil
At 16:55 18/02/2008, you wrote:

Phil,
I'm really sorry for the delay; my family and I have been in transit
from the US to the UK this past week, and it's taken a bit for us to
get settled.
I've attached the ENSO index I've been using. The first month is Jan
1850; the last is Dec 2006. The time series has a silly number of sig
figures - that's just how Matlab wanted to save it.
The data are in K and are scaled as per the fit to the global-mean
(as in the paper).
I've got some new results regarding the land data... I'll think
you'll find them interesting. I'll pass them along in the next day or
so... the main point is that I suspect the land data might also have
some spurious cooling in the middle part of the century. More to
come....
-Dave

On Feb 14, 2008, at 12:35 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

David,
For a presentation I'm due to make in a few months, can you
send me the ENSO and the COWL series that are in Figure 1 in the
paper.
I'm not sure what I will do with COWL, but I want to compare your
ENSO
with some of the ENSO-type indices I have.
 These seem monthly from about the 1860s or maybe earlier.
Cheers
Phil
At 16:49 07/02/2008, you wrote:

So it made it past the first hurdle, which is good. My hunch is

that the paper will fare OK in review, but you never know with
Nature. And it's possible a reviewer will insist on our providing
a correction... anyway, we'll see...
-Dave
Begin forwarded message:

From: [1]j.thorpe@nature.com
Date: February 7, 2008 3:44:07 AM PST
To: [2]davet@atmos.colostate.edu
Subject: Nature 2008-01-00939 out to review
Dear Professor Thompson,
Thank you for submitting your manuscript entitled "A
discontinuity in the time series of global-mean surface
temperature" to Nature. I am pleased to tell you that we are
sending your paper out for review.
We will be in touch again as soon as we have received comments
from our reviewers.
Yours sincerely
Nichola O'Brien
Staff
Nature
For Dr. Joanna Thorpe
Associate Editor, Nature
Nature Publishing Group -- [3]http://www.nature.com/nature
The Macmillan Building, 4 Crinan Street, London N1 9XW, UK
Tel +44 20 7833 4000; Fax +44 20 7843 4596; [4]nature@nature.com
968 National Press Building, Washington DC 20045-1938, USA
Tel +1 202 737 2355; Fax +1 202 628 1609; [5]nature@naturedc.com
* Please see NPG's author and referees' website
( [6]www.nature.com/ authors) for information about and links to
policies, services
and author benefits. See also [7]http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus,
our blog for authors, and [8]http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer,
our blog about peer-review.
This email has been sent through the NPG Manuscript Tracking
System NY-610A-NPG&MTS

------------------------------------------------------------------- -
------------------------------------------------------------------- -
David W. J. Thompson
[9]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-3338
Fax: 970-491-8449

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [10]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
-------------------------------------------------------------------- -- ------

--------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------
David W. J. Thompson
[11]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-3338
Fax: 970-491-8449
Phil,
I'm really sorry for the delay; my family and I have been in
transit from the US to the UK this past week, and it's taken a bit
for us to get settled.
I've attached the ENSO index I've been using. The first month is
Jan 1850; the last is Dec 2006. The time series has a silly number
of sig figures - that's just how Matlab wanted to save it.
The data are in K and are scaled as per the fit to the global-mean
(as in the paper).
I've got some new results regarding the land data... I'll think
you'll find them interesting. I'll pass them along in the next day
or so... the main point is that I suspect the land data might also
have some spurious cooling in the middle part of the century. More
to come....
-Dave
On Feb 14, 2008, at 12:35 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

David,
For a presentation I'm due to make in a few months, can you
send me the ENSO and the COWL series that are in Figure 1 in the
paper.
I'm not sure what I will do with COWL, but I want to compare
your ENSO
with some of the ENSO-type indices I have.
These seem monthly from about the 1860s or maybe earlier.
Cheers
Phil
At 16:49 07/02/2008, you wrote:

So it made it past the first hurdle, which is good. My hunch is

that the paper will fare OK in review, but you never know with
Nature. And it's possible a reviewer will insist on our
providing a correction... anyway, we'll see...
-Dave
Begin forwarded message:

From: [12]j.thorpe@nature.com
Date: February 7, 2008 3:44:07 AM PST
To: [13]davet@atmos.colostate.edu
Subject: Nature 2008-01-00939 out to review
Dear Professor Thompson,
Thank you for submitting your manuscript entitled "A
discontinuity in the time series of global-mean surface
temperature" to Nature. I am pleased to tell you that we are
sending your paper out for review.
 We will be in touch again as soon as we have received comments
from our reviewers.
Yours sincerely
Nichola O'Brien
Staff
Nature
For Dr. Joanna Thorpe
Associate Editor, Nature
Nature Publishing Group -- [14]http://www.nature.com/nature
The Macmillan Building, 4 Crinan Street, London N1 9XW, UK
Tel +44 20 7833 4000; Fax +44 20 7843 4596; [15]nature@nature.com
968 National Press Building, Washington DC 20045-1938, USA
Tel +1 202 737 2355; Fax +1 202 628 1609; [16]nature@naturedc.com
* Please see NPG's author and referees' website
( [17]www.nature.com/authors) for information about and links to
policies, services and author benefits. See also [18]http://
blogs.nature.com/nautilus,
our blog for authors, and [19]http:// blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer, our blog
about
peer-review.
This email has been sent through the NPG Manuscript Tracking
System NY-610A-NPG&MTS

------------------------------------------------------------------- -
------------------------------------------------------------------- -
David W. J. Thompson
[20]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-3338
Fax: 970-491-8449

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [21]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK

-------------------------------------------------------------------- --------

--------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------
David W. J. Thompson
[22]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-3338
Fax: 970-491-8449

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
 Norwich Email [23]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK

---------------------------------------------------------------------- ------

--------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------
David W. J. Thompson
[24]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-3338
Fax: 970-491-8449
Hi Phil,
I'd enjoy visiting.... how does the first or last week of April look to you?
As for some new results:
I've attached two figures. Both focus on the land data.
The first figure includes 4 time series. From top to bottom: the global-mean
land data
(CRUTEM 3); the ENSO fit; the COWL fit; the residual global-mean time series.
There is
nothing here you haven't seen before - the residual land time series is
identical to the
one in the Nature paper.
As we've discussed, the residual land time series highlights the signature of
the
volcanos. And as far as low frequency variability goes: the residual land time
series
supports the IPCC contention that the global warmed from ~1900-1940; did not
warm from
~1940-1980; and warmed substantially from 1980 to present.
OK.... so now I'm going to play with removing the volcanic signal. There are a
lot of
ways to do this, and I haven't settled on the best method. For now, I am
driving the
simple climate model I've been using for ENSO with the Ammann et al. volcanic
forcing
time series. I get identical results using Crowley's estimate and Sato's
estimate.
The figure on page 2 shows the effect of removing the volcanic signal. From
top to
bottom: the the global-mean residual land time series (repeated from the
previous
figure); the volcanic fit; the 'ENSO/COWL/Volcano' residual land time series.
Some key points:
1. the volcanic fit isn't perfect, but captures most of the volcanic signal.
2. the residual time series (bottom of Fig 2) is interesting. If you look
closely, it
suggests the globe has warmed continuously since 1900 with two exceptions: a
'bite' in
the 1970s, and a downwards 'step' in 1945. The step in 1945 is not as dramatic
as the
step in the ocean data. But it's there. (I'm guessing the corresponding change
in
variance is due to a sudden increase in data coverage).
3. the volcanic fit highlights the fact that the lack of warming in the middle
part of
the century comes from only two features: the step in 45 and Agung. When Agung
is
removed, land temperatures march upwards from 1945-1970 (Fig 2 bottom).
4. the bite in the 1970s could be due to an underestimate of the impact of
Fuego (the
bite is also evident in the SST data).
What do you think? The step in 1945 is not as dramatic as the step in the SST
data. But
it's certainly there. It's evident in the COWL/ENSO residual time series (top
of Fig 2):
removing Agung simply clarifies that without the step temperatures marched
steadily
upwards from 1900-1970.
-Dave

On Feb 19, 2008, at 1:28 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

Dave,
Thanks.
Before seeing what you send, I think I'll find it harder to believe
something is wrong with the land data. I can be convinced though....
So you're in Reading now. Do you still want to come up to distant Norwich
at some point and also give a talk?
Cheers
Phil
At 16:55 18/02/2008, you wrote:

Phil,
I'm really sorry for the delay; my family and I have been in transit
from the US to the UK this past week, and it's taken a bit for us to
get settled.
I've attached the ENSO index I've been using. The first month is Jan
1850; the last is Dec 2006. The time series has a silly number of sig
figures - that's just how Matlab wanted to save it.
The data are in K and are scaled as per the fit to the global-mean
(as in the paper).
I've got some new results regarding the land data... I'll think
you'll find them interesting. I'll pass them along in the next day or
so... the main point is that I suspect the land data might also have
some spurious cooling in the middle part of the century. More to
come....
-Dave

On Feb 14, 2008, at 12:35 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

David,
For a presentation I'm due to make in a few months, can you
send me the ENSO and the COWL series that are in Figure 1 in the
paper.
I'm not sure what I will do with COWL, but I want to compare your
ENSO
with some of the ENSO-type indices I have.
These seem monthly from about the 1860s or maybe earlier.
Cheers
Phil
At 16:49 07/02/2008, you wrote:

So it made it past the first hurdle, which is good. My hunch is

 that the paper will fare OK in review, but you never know with
Nature. And it's possible a reviewer will insist on our providing
a correction... anyway, we'll see...
-Dave
Begin forwarded message:

From: [25]j.thorpe@nature.com
Date: February 7, 2008 3:44:07 AM PST
To: [26]davet@atmos.colostate.edu
Subject: Nature 2008-01-00939 out to review
Dear Professor Thompson,
Thank you for submitting your manuscript entitled "A
discontinuity in the time series of global-mean surface
temperature" to Nature. I am pleased to tell you that we are
sending your paper out for review.
We will be in touch again as soon as we have received comments
from our reviewers.
Yours sincerely
Nichola O'Brien
Staff
Nature
For Dr. Joanna Thorpe
Associate Editor, Nature
Nature Publishing Group -- [27]http://www.nature.com/nature
The Macmillan Building, 4 Crinan Street, London N1 9XW, UK
Tel +44 20 7833 4000; Fax +44 20 7843 4596; [28]nature@nature.com
968 National Press Building, Washington DC 20045-1938, USA
Tel +1 202 737 2355; Fax +1 202 628 1609; [29]nature@naturedc.com
* Please see NPG's author and referees' website ( [30]www.nature.com/ authors)
for
information about and links to policies, services
and author benefits. See also [31]http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus,
our blog for authors, and [32]http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer,
our blog about peer-review.
This email has been sent through the NPG Manuscript Tracking
System NY-610A-NPG&MTS

--------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------
David W. J. Thompson
[33]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-3338
Fax: 970-491-8449

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [34]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK

---------------------------------------------------------------------- ------

--------------------------------------------------------------------
 --------------------------------------------------------------------
David W. J. Thompson
[35]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-3338
Fax: 970-491-8449
Phil,
I'm really sorry for the delay; my family and I have been in transit from the
US to the
UK this past week, and it's taken a bit for us to get settled.
I've attached the ENSO index I've been using. The first month is Jan 1850; the
last is
Dec 2006. The time series has a silly number of sig figures - that's just how
Matlab
wanted to save it.
The data are in K and are scaled as per the fit to the global-mean (as in the
paper).
I've got some new results regarding the land data... I'll think you'll find
them
interesting. I'll pass them along in the next day or so... the main point is
that I
suspect the land data might also have some spurious cooling in the middle part
of the
century. More to come....
-Dave
On Feb 14, 2008, at 12:35 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

David,
For a presentation I'm due to make in a few months, can you
send me the ENSO and the COWL series that are in Figure 1 in the paper.
I'm not sure what I will do with COWL, but I want to compare your ENSO
with some of the ENSO-type indices I have.
These seem monthly from about the 1860s or maybe earlier.
Cheers
Phil

At 16:49 07/02/2008, you wrote:

So it made it past the first hurdle, which is good. My hunch is that the paper
will fare
OK in review, but you never know with Nature. And it's possible a reviewer
will insist
on our providing a correction... anyway, we'll see...
-Dave
Begin forwarded message:

From: [36]j.thorpe@nature.com
Date: February 7, 2008 3:44:07 AM PST
To: [37]davet@atmos.colostate.edu
Subject: Nature 2008-01-00939 out to review
Dear Professor Thompson,
Thank you for submitting your manuscript entitled "A discontinuity in the time
series of
global-mean surface temperature" to Nature. I am pleased to tell you that we
are sending
your paper out for review.
 We will be in touch again as soon as we have received comments from our
reviewers.
Yours sincerely
Nichola O'Brien
Staff
Nature
For Dr. Joanna Thorpe
Associate Editor, Nature
Nature Publishing Group -- [38]http://www.nature.com/nature
The Macmillan Building, 4 Crinan Street, London N1 9XW, UK
Tel +44 20 7833 4000; Fax +44 20 7843 4596; [39]nature@nature.com
968 National Press Building, Washington DC 20045-1938, USA
Tel +1 202 737 2355; Fax +1 202 628 1609; [40]nature@naturedc.com
* Please see NPG's author and referees' website ( [41]www.nature.com/authors)
for
information about and links to policies, services and author benefits. See
also
[42]http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus, our blog for authors, and
[43]http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer, our blog about peer-review.
This email has been sent through the NPG Manuscript Tracking System NY-610A-
NPG&MTS

--------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------
David W. J. Thompson
[44]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-3338
Fax: 970-491-8449

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [45]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------
David W. J. Thompson
[46]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-3338
Fax: 970-491-8449

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [47]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
 NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------
David W. J. Thompson
[48]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-3338
Fax: 970-491-8449

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [49]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------
David W. J. Thompson
www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-3338
Fax: 970-491-8449

References

1. mailto:j.thorpe@nature.com
2. mailto:davet@atmos.colostate.edu
3. http://www.nature.com/nature
4. mailto:nature@nature.com
5. mailto:nature@naturedc.com
6. http://www.nature.com/
7. http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus
8. http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer
9. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
10. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
11. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
12. mailto:j.thorpe@nature.com
13. mailto:davet@atmos.colostate.edu
14. http://www.nature.com/nature
15. mailto:nature@nature.com
16. mailto:nature@naturedc.com
17. http://www.nature.com/authors
18. http:///
19. http:///
20. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
21. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
22. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
23. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
24. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
25. mailto:j.thorpe@nature.com
26. mailto:davet@atmos.colostate.edu
27. http://www.nature.com/nature
28. mailto:nature@nature.com
29. mailto:nature@naturedc.com
30. http://www.nature.com/
31. http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus
32. http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer
33. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
34. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
35. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
36. mailto:j.thorpe@nature.com
37. mailto:davet@atmos.colostate.edu
38. http://www.nature.com/nature
39. mailto:nature@nature.com
40. mailto:nature@naturedc.com
41. http://www.nature.com/authors
42. http://blogs.nature.com/nautilus
43. http://blogs.nature.com/peer-to-peer
44. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
45. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
46. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
47. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
48. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
49. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk