The era of oil is coming to an end, with global oil production set to halve in the next five to six

years. To
avoid a global economic slump, the transition to 100% renewables worldwide needs to be accelerated. It
is feasible and cheaper than the current system, research shows.

2018 was a year of bold ambition and remarkable achievements for renewable energy, according to the
International Renewable Energy Agency. Indeed, the production costs of renewables fell to record lows,
undercutting the costs of existing coal-fired power plants. Investment in renewables kept rising, with
most investment coming from emerging and developing countries. And even in places where politicians
try to block the energy transition, for instance in the USA and Australia, numerous private actors,
companies, and entire communities increasingly committed to go 100% renewable.

Yet, one important piece of news on the global energy transformation went unnoticed, despite the fact
that it came from one of the most influential organizations, the International Energy Agency (IEA). The
dramatic message was hidden in a graph on page 159 of the 2018 World Energy Outlook (WEO), the
annual edition of the most significant report on global energy developments.

It shows that with no new investment, global oil production — including all unconventional sources —
will drop by 50% by 2025 (Figure 1). That means that the global oil supply crunch is likely to happen
already in the next five to six years and not in decades, as many fossil fuel companies hope. The global
annual oil production is set to decline by approximately six million barrels per day starting in 2020. That
means in the coming years the provision of energy related to oil will reduce annually by an amount
equal to the total energy demand of Germany in 2014.