Exploring The Service Management Standard ISO 20000.: September 2013

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30. Sandi Cots, Martí Casadesús Fa

Exploring the Service Management Standard ISO 20000 413
Exploring the Service Management

Standard ISO 20000
Santi Cots
Universitat de Girona, Servei Informàtic
C/ Maria Aurèlia Campmany 40, 17003 Girona (Spain)
santi.cots@udg.edu
Martí Casadesús Fa
Professor, Universitat de Girona, Departament d’Organització, Gestió Empresarial
i Desenvolupament de Producte, Av. Lluis Santaló, s/n, 17003 Girona (Spain)
marti.casadesus@udg.edu
Abstract
Purpose: ISO 20000 is the only international management system standard in the service man-
agement field. The study explores the standard, formerly oriented to the information technology
services management
Methodology/Approach: The current situation is analyzed trough a description of the stan-
dard and other related standards. This is followed by a diffusion analysis using worldwide
certification data analyzing geographical distribution by continents and countries and examin-
ing its evolution over time through comparison with other management-system standards. Our
analysis extends to relationships existing between countries, and a clear correlation is detected
between different countries regarding number of certifications and certification intensity. The
logistic curve method is used to detect the theoretical saturation point
Findings: As result of the analysis, the theoretical saturation point is found to be earlier than
previously thought. The standard is compared with updated forecasts for other parallel stan-
dards (viz: ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and ISO 27001), describing the current stage in the manage-
ment standards standardization.
Originality/Value: This is the first global study on the ISO 20000 standard. The methodology
adopted based on the study of other standards and the updated results to those standards, allows
to compare this standard’s situation to other standards. . ISO 20000 is expected to have an im-
portant role in the standardization of service management even beyond information technolo-
gies.
Keywords: ISO 20000; ITIL; IT Service Management; Management Standards; ISO 9000; ISO
27000; ISO 14000
NOTICE: Please, do not confuse this with: Cots, Santi, and Casadesús, Martí. 2015. “Exploring the
Service Management Standard ISO 20000.” Total Quality Management & Business Excellence 26 (5):
515–33. doi:10.1080/14783363.2013.856544.
Unfortunately, both share the title, but have significant differences. Sorry.
Papers Index < Back Next Page >

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Introduction
All of us living in modern societies are information technologies IT services consumers. Some
IT services are innovative while others are simply commodities. Some are for business, some
make our life easier or more productive and some are for fun. Even some machines use IT ser-
vices provided by other machines to accomplish their own goals. Nowadays, IT services are
everywhere.
Some of those services are simple enough to be provided by simple, and sometimes tiny, sys-
tems. But most part of them are made by complex and/or expensive systems. The time when IT
are new technologies are fading away and today IT are common and pervasive.
That’s why organizations providing IT services feel the increasing need of industrialize the
service provision, in order to achieve those quality level, value added and competitive services
that their clients are demanding.
As part of this industrialization process, arises the need to manage those services. As was done
before in other areas, the production of IT service must be managed correctly. That’s why ap-
peared the discipline known as ITSM, Information Technology Service Management.
Within ITSM area, different management standards have been designed, implemented and im-
proved, whether they be formal or de facto (Cater-Steel, 2009). This group of standards (Kum-
bakara, 2008) forms part of an arsenal at the disposal of those who dedicate themselves to
service management.
But most of these standards, although were conceived with the information technologies in
mind, have leveraged the knowledge added by years in other management areas. Moreover, and
as we will see, some of those standards are applicable not only in the IT field, but also in various
other areas of service management. That’s why we foresee that IT management standards will
have impact in service science present and future.
This paper focuses on one ISO 20000, one of these standards, which defines an IT service man-
agement system. Here we analyze its impact and diffusion, now and in the future by stating the
current certification level and comparing it with other Management Standards (MS). Moreover,
projection models previously utilized in the study of the most common standards and related to
ISO 20000, are also used; these models permit an analysis of their evolution over time and their
geographical impact. This all serves to obtain a clear vision of their current and, in particular, a
projection of their future impact.
Use of conventions
This study makes repeated reference to the management standards ISO/IEC 20000, in both its
2005 and 2011 versions, as well as ISO 9001 (2008), ISO 14001 (2004) and ISO/IEC 27001
(2005). For the purpose of simplicity, and following conventions that are widely used in pub-
lications, they are referred to here in a generic, simplified form as ISO 20000, ISO 9001, ISO
14001 and ISO 27001, respectively. The use of specific names or versions is reserved for those
cases that require an explicit reference or for the sake of clarity.

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Quality and Management Standards (MS)

In the past, the industrialization process highlighted the need to ensure the quality of goods
produced. The Second World War saw the expansion of the practice of final product inspection;
quality management was later extended to include the prevention of production defects. Nu-
merous valuable contributions were progressively made that, when put into practice, permitted
the implementation of quality-management techniques and systems which undoubtedly had an
effect on improving quality in production processes. It is worth highlighting the impact that
information technologies have had on the implementation of Total Quality Management (TQM)
(Au and Choi, 1999), and the importance that IT managers award these techniques (Pearson et
al., 1995).
In this field, it is important to mention how standardization has permitted the establishment of
common practices and references both within and between organizations and internationally.
It is for this reason that standardization is implemented in many areas, among which it is logi-
cal to find that of management, giving rise to what is known as Management Standards (MS).
There are already numerous studies in existence on the field of management standardization, its
benefits and impact, and the synergies produced by integrating or combining a number of MS
together (Casadesús et al., 2011).
On an international scale, the main standardization body is the International Organization for
Standardization, known by its initials ISO. Founded in 1947, it currently has a portfolio of over
19,400 standards, and comprises 164 countries (ISO, 2012). Another international organiza-
tion dedicated to standardization and relevant in this case is the International Electrotechnical
Commission, known by its initials IEC; as well as its own standards, it also frequently creates
standards in conjunction with ISO, giving rise to the combined ISO/IEC standards, such as ISO/
IEC 20000. This does not, however, prevent these standards from being known, and referred to
in publications, simply as ISO standards, as used in the present article.
Irrespective of their aims, management standards promoted by ISO share many common char-
acteristics, whether in their form or in the principles that inspire them. A common characteristic
of most ISO-promoted MS is that they are auditable. Auditability, therefore, gives these stan-
dards a value in itself, since it allows organizations to verify the implementation and use of MS.
When a third-party audit is carried out, the third party usually issues a “certificate” that recog-
nizes and demonstrates the audited party’s monitoring of, and compliance with, the standard. A
large part of the value of these certificates is down to the issuing body’s prestige. Those compa-
nies specialized in auditing and certification are, therefore, generally predisposed to guarantee
and demonstrate the quality and rigour of said certifications. For this reason, they usually sub-
mit themselves to control by other organizations that accredit them in accordance with what are
called “certification schemes”. Certified companies are normally disposed to, and interested in,
making it known that they have been certified.
Of the many standards that exist in the management field, only a few define an MS. By way of
example, and in order to present a general view, Table 1 shows some of these and includes the
year they were last revised.

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Table 1 Some MSS
MSS Area of application

ISO 9.001:2008 Quality-management Systems
ISO 14.001:2004 Environmental-management Systems
ISO/IEC 20000- Service-management System Requirements
1:2011
ISO 22000:2005 Food-safety Management Systems
ISO/IEC 27001:2005 Information-security Management Systems
ISO 50001:2011 Energy-management Systems
Standard ISO 9001, which defines the requirements of a quality-management system, stands
out above all other MS for its diffusion and impact. With 1,111,698 certificates issued world-
wide in 2011 (ISO, 2012), it is the oldest and most widely-diffused standard and that which
has been analyzed most in publications. It is also important to mention its influence in the de-
velopment of ISO 20000. The possibility of an integrated use of both standards should also be
highlighted, a use explicitly mentioned in the standard’s text, and one demonstrated by the fact
that, at the time of writing, ISO is developing ISO/IEC DTR 90006, entitled “Guidelines for
the application of ISO 9001:2008 to IT service management and its integration with ISO/IEC
20000-1:2011” (Draft Technical Report).
The second most-widely diffused MS is the ISO 14001 standard for environmental manage-
ment. Its relevance to this study derives from the fact that it has also been widely written about,
and that the current number of certifications stands at 267,457. Many of the studies analyzed
that do not limit themselves to ISO 9001 are based on ISO 14001, whether dealing with the
comparison between, or integrated use of, both standards.
Noteworthy in the specific IT field is the existence and diffusion of ISO 27001, with a global
total of 17,509 certificates in 2011. As in the case of ISO 20000, it is a standard management
system originally developed for the IT field (Gillies, 2011), but it can also be used in wider
fields, even though it is not oriented towards services, but rather towards information security.
As it is ISO that collects and annually publishes certification data for ISO 27001 in the ISO
Survey (ISO, 2012), this is a good reference point for the study of ISO 20000. Also noteworthy
is the existence of international standard ISO/IEC 27013:2012 entitled “Guidance on the inte-
grated implementation of ISO/IEC 27001 and ISO/IEC 20000-1”, which can be integrated with
ISO 9001 (Wang and Tsai, 2009), with ISO 9001 and 14001 simultaneously (Crowder, 2013)
or combined with other standards in the sector (Sahibudin et al., 2008), including ISO 20000
(Abu Talib et al., 2012).
Having considered the three standards relevant to the purposes of this study, it should also be
remembered that, when dealing with ISO 20000 - the most widely-recognised certification
scheme and the only one of worldwide reach and recognition – it is the standard that was, in its
day, promoted by itSMF (IT Service Management Forum), and has been managed by APMG
(the official accrediting agency of the Office of Government Commerce, a branch of the UK
government) since the start of 2011. If so desired, certifications emitted under this scheme are
collected and published by APMG itself (APMG, n.d.).
ISO 20000, a step beyond ITIL®
In the IT Service Management (ITSM) field, there is a wide range of standards and frame-
works, among which one finds: ITIL®, CMMI-SVC, COBIT, ISO 20000, ISO 27001, LEAN
IT, USMBOK, PMBOK, Six Sigma, PRINCE2, ISO9000, ValIT, ISO 38500. Many of these

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standards have overlapping implementation areas or are complementary.

Of all the standards in the ITSM field, the one that stands out for its importance, diffusion and
development is ITIL® (Information Technologies Infrastructure Library). ITIL® is called a
“Library” since it refers to a group of books, which have changed with each version of the
standard. ITIL®, intellectual property of the British government’s OGC (Office of Government
Commerce), developed the standard at the end of the 1980s.
ITIL defines itself as a group of good practices for the management of IT services. As its maxim
“adopt and adapt” suggests, it should not be mistaken for a standard. No organization can,
therefore, claim ITIL® compliance. This complicates knowledge of its true degree of imple-
mentation, even though it does have a great impact, as proved by the number of official personal
certifications. According to the official level scheme also run by the accrediting agency APMG,
the number of ITIL-certified professionals in the world currently stands at over 1,400,000 at
foundations level and over 16,000 at expert level (Tucker, 2012). Its widespread diffusion, great
impact and greater age mean that it has been the subject of numerous studies (Cater-Steel, 2006,
2005; McNaughton et al., 2010; Pedersen and Bjørn-Andersen, 2011; Potgieter et al., 2005;
Spremic et al., 2008).
While ITIL and ISO 20000 are, by their very nature, different, the first being a group of good
practices and the second a management-system standard, the numerous similarities (Dugmore
and Taylor, 2008) have caused many authors to study them as a whole or to consider ISO 20000
a derivative of ITIL or a means for companies to “certify themselves in ITIL”.
Another clear indicator of the similarity with ITIL is that ISO itself is developing a new section
of the standard, expected to be approved as ISO/IEC 20000-11 and entitled “Guidance on the
relationship between ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011 and related frameworks: ITIL®”.
If we return to its origins, the first version of the standard, ISO/IEC 20000-1:2005, was pre-
pared by the British Standards Institution (BSI) and approved and published at the end of 2005
as the successor to British standard BS 15000. Version 2 of ITIL was then in force. It is gener-
ally accepted that, when creating the standard, the authors, some of whom were the same, were
inspired by the knowledge collected, and model proposed, by ITIL. The two are so close in
nature that some authors refer to one or the other indistinctively.
In any case, since ITIL was later heavily revised and its books restructured and rewritten, with
version 3 published in 2007 and revised in 2011, the ITIL model has evolved. This has led to a
substantial increase in the number of processes, and it has been restructured around the concept
of the service life-cycle. While not in this article’s remit, Table 2 summarizes some of the dif-
ferences between ITIL and ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011.

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Table 2 Some differences between ITIL and ISO 20000
ITIL v2011 ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011

Latest version v3 2011 2011
Aim Group of good practices Defines a Management System
Property Private Public
Character Guide Certifiable and Auditable
Model 26 processes + 4 functions 14 processes + Requirements of Management
System
Volume 5 books, approx.1962 26 pages
pages
Area of certifica- Certifies people Certifies organizations
tion
ISO 20000 is currently in its second version, the first document of which was published in 2011,
and the full identification of this document is ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011. As a whole, the standard
is comprised of different documents, which we refer to as “parts”; these are detailed in Table 3.
Table 3 Published parts of ISO/IEC 20000
ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011 Service-management system requirements

ISO/IEC 20000-2:2012 Guidance on the application of service-management systems
ISO/IEC 20000-3:2012 Guidance on scope definition and applicability of ISO/IEC 20000-
1
ISO/IEC 20000-4:2010 Process-reference model
ISO/IEC 20000-5:2010 Exemplar implementation plan for ISO/IEC 20000-1
When considering the standard in its entirety, it is the first part which is most relevant; this
defines the management system requirements. It is the only part with enforceable requirements
for certification, the remainder being complementary advice or recommendations. References
to part 1 are often confused, or used indistinctively, with the standard as a whole.
Content of ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011
Excluding the introduction, the text of ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011 is divided into 9 sections with
their corresponding sub-sections. The prologue briefly describes who the standardizing organ-
isms are and how they are organized; it also highlights the new additions and changes in this
second version.
The central subject of the introduction is a reminder that the aim of a management system is
to define the design, transition, provision and improvement of services that comply with the
requirements and provide value, whether to clients or to the service provider itself.
As with the other ISO standardized management systems, this standard is characterized by the
definition of a set of processes that are specifically oriented towards the compliance of the spe-
cific standard - in this case service management -, some general requirements and a system of
continuous improvement based on the Plan-Do-Check-Act, or Deming, cycle (Deming, 2000).
The first section of the standard defines its scope; that is, who should use the standard and for
what. It is relevant here to note that, from this section on, the current 2011 version has omit-
ted the specific references to IT contained in the previous 2005 version. The standard’s aim is,
therefore, to define a service-management system that is applicable to the whole range of ser-

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vice management, extending beyond the original IT field. An example of this is its application
to Higher Education services (Lezcano et al., 2010). The standard’s second section contains
only normative references.
The third section, regarding terms and definitions, has lengthened considerably with respect to
the previous version. It is of great importance given that it helps clarify how some terms should
be interpreted within the context of the standard. While the terminology used generally coin-
cides with ITIL concepts, there may be slight nuances in the definitions, although probably of
little relevance.
The service-management system (SMS) is defined in points 4 to 9, being those that contain
requirements in accordance with the structure shown in Figure 1. These are not sole require-
ments, so listing them is not simple. Many have a number of implications that should also be
interpreted depending on the characteristics of the organization implementing the standard or
other variables.
Responsibilities
Documentation management
Risk management
Resource management
Plan
Act
New and Retired services

modified services
Processes
Do
Check
Figure 1: ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011 SMS model

From this point onwards, the ISO 20000 standard is structured on three levels. The first, de-
scribed in point 4, defines the service management system (SMS) including: policies, respon-
sibilities, documentation management, risk management, resource management, governance
of processes operated by other parties, system implementation and improvement (including
internal audits).
The intermediate level, defined in point 5, describes requirements regarding the design, transi-
tion (to start operations) and retirement of services, whether new or modified, for their correct
integration into the management system (SMS). These two levels create the framework within
which processes are integrated, as showed by Figure 1.

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Continuity &
Availability
Capacity
Budgeting &
Service accounting
level
Reporting
Information
Service delivery security
processes
Configuration
Control Incident
processes & service
Release
request
Change Problem
Resolution
processes
Business
Relationship
Relationship
processes
Supplier
Figure 2: ISO 20000 processes

Thus, on a third level, points 6 to 9 define the group of 13 processes that together structure
the activity necessary for service management, as shown in Figure 2. Although the standard is
structured by sections for each of these processes, it does not require the implemented system
to use precisely these 13 processes (there may be more, fewer or different ones), the system
only requires implementation of those processes necessary for all requirements included in the
model to be covered.
The processes of the model are, then, gathered into four groups: provision processes, listed
in point 6; relationship processes, listed in point 7; resolution processes, listed in point 8 and,
lastly, control processes, listed in point 9.
The aim of provision processes is to guarantee that services are delivered in accordance with
previously agreed levels of service, with the costs defined and with the due characteristics of
continuity, availability, capacity and safety. To achieve this, the corresponding processes are
defined: Service level management (6.1), Service reporting (6.2), Service continuity and avail-
ability management (6.3), Budgeting and accounting for services (6.4), Capacity management
(6.5) and finally Information security management (6.6).
Relationship processes facilitate management with other parties as long as these are not con-
sidered to be process-operating third parties (in this case, they must be managed according

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to the requirements imposed by the management system itself in point 4.2). Other parties are
considered to be clients, users and other interested parties in the services and suppliers, giving
rise to a need to define the processes of: Business relationship management (7.1) and Supplier
management (7.2).
Resolution processes are divided into Incident and service request management (8.1) and Prob-
lem management (8.2). The first focuses on prioritizing, and attending to, users who have dif-
ficulties with the services or those who have to channel their requests, as well as incidents that
can affect the delivered service. Problem management is dedicated to investigation and a defini-
tive resolution where possible of the root causes that can or do give rise to incidents.
Finally, control processes are designed to keep both infrastructure and services in order. A Con-
figuration management process (9.1) must take into account configuration elements or assets
(configurations items or CIs) that are used in the delivery of services, including their condition
and the relationships between them. A Change management process (9.2) focuses on taking
decisions regarding the possibility, viability and convenience of making changes to CIs. Fi-
nally, the Release and deployment management process (9.3) is responsible for the ordered and
planned implementation of those changes approved by change management.
Aims and methodology
The main aim of the present study is to determine the current impact of ISO 20000, and forecast
its impact over coming years. It should be pointed out that only one previous study has been
found on ISO 20000 (Disterer, 2012), of a much narrower scope and using methodology paral-
lel to that of previous studies. Although with a very preliminary focus, said study shows the
interest ISO 20000 may generate in the near future. Based on the registrations of certifications
issued by APMG, it carries out a basic analysis of geographical distribution by continent. Its
main contribution is the study of incentives and benefits provided by ISO 20000, based on a
survey of companies registered in German-speaking countries (Germany, Austria, Switzerland
and Liechtenstein).
Once it has achieved its established aim, this article will provide answers to two relevant ques-
tions. Firstly, whether ISO 20000 diffusion follows similar patterns to those of the other MS; in
other words, the degree to which the diffusion of said standards depends on their area of imple-
mentation. And secondly, our analysis will allow us to put the standard in context, serving as a
useful indicator of implementation trends for other IT standards or frameworks, the uncertified
nature of which make a quantitative analysis of their implementation and use problematic.
For the above reasons, the present article adapts methodologies used in previous MS studies
– and specifically on the most analyzed standards, ISO 9001 and ISO 14001- to ISO 20000.
It should be noted that many of these previous studies are qualitative, focusing their analysis
on the incentives, benefits and problems of MSS implementation and/or certification (Gotza-
mani and Tsiotras, 2002)addressing one main deficiency of the standards, which is the absence
of requirements related to real results in the organisations. Finally, factor analysis is applied
in both certification motives and benefits, revealing the main factors/categories of both, and
their in-between relationship.”, “author” : [ { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Gotzamani”,
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7466-4b18-a152-38035da6a234” ] } ], “mendeley” : { “previouslyFormattedCitation” :

“(Gotzamani and Tsiotras, 2002. That said, some quantitative studies have also been detected;
these generally use number of certifications for a specific MS, and focus on the study of their
historical diffusion or geographical distribution, and even on the correlation between the num-
ber of certificates and other indicators. Some authors also infer future diffusion of the various
standards (Casadesús et al., 2010).
Knowledge of the geographical distribution of certifications and their evolution over time is
vital to the present study with regards to the diffusion analysis. It is therefore possible to carry
out an initial comparative geographical study using the ISO Intensity Indicator suggested in
(Marimon et al., 2006). This uses GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as a measure of each coun-
try’s size, and allows us to calculate an indicator of which countries have a higher certification
intensity. In order to do this, the authors have taken the number of certifications of a country and
divided it by the country’s GDP, which is weighted according to the same relationship regarding
the total for the area, as reflected in the formula.
Regarding the study of diffusion over time, we propose the use of the logistic equation to model
the worldwide evolution of ISO 20000 certifications, as posited (Franceschini et al., 2004) for
ISO 9001. Application of the logistic curve was, in fact, first proposed by the Belgian math-
ematician Pierre François Verhulst in 1838 (Verhulst, 1838) to explain population evolution.
Its application to the field of standardization is based on the hypothesis that the increase in
a standard’s certification is proportional to the number of existing certifications, and that the
growth ratio is also a function of the number of certifications, but that, as long as conditions do
not change, there is also an upper limit to the number of certifications possible, called satura-
tion limit or point. According to this model, the number of certifications existing at any given
moment can be obtained by applying the logistic function defined by the following formula:
In this expression, N is the number of certificates at a given moment (time function). No is the
initial value for the number of certifications. K is the expected maximum, or certification satu-
ration point and ro the curve gradient. It is thus possible to interpolate historical certification
data, fitting a logistic curve and projecting the number of future certifications. This permits the
calculation of the expected value of N for any given time, whether past or future.
This methodology has been widely used and contrasted in diffusion analysis carried out for
other management standards, such as the case of ISO 14001 in (Marimon et al., 2006). There
are therefore studies that vouch for the reliability of this method of forecasting the future evolu-
tion of a management system standard. For example, Marimon et al in (Marimon et al., 2011)
use ISO 9001 certification data provided by ISO itself over the course of 16 years.
Following a description of the data gathering process, the following Results section is therefore
divided into two large blocks. The first is dedicated to analyzing the international impact of ISO
20000, taking into account its geographical and time distribution, while also analyzing said im-
pact with respect to other standards of reference. The second block focuses on a projection of
certifications based on the logistic curve, and also compares them with those of other standards.
Results
Data collection
All of the quantitative worldwide studies on other ISO standards reviewed are based on data
obtained from certificates issued, which ISO collects from the different certification bodies and
publishes annually in the ISO Survey of certificactions [10]. Said survey unfortunately contains
no data for ISO 20000, which prevents using the same source as that used in the referenced
studies. Therefore, for this study, the first step was to capture records of certifications available

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on the APMG website on an ongoing basis. This was done in October 2011, December 2011 and
May 2012. During this period, the records were extracted and some identified inconsistencies
reported to APMG, which led to some records being corrected. Thus, although at the time of
writing this article records are no longer published for certifications prior to 2009, the records
we have collected and analyzed started in 2006, the year after the first appearance of the stan-
dard.
From the set of records obtained, a total of 729 were considered valid for certifications issued
up until December 2011. Later records were discarded as there is no fixed deadline for pub-
lishing certificates and empirically it was noted that many take several months to be reflected.
Therefore, the time period elapsed between those certifications that are considered for the study
(31 December 2011) and the last capture (May 2012) allows us to assume that we had included
all certifications published for 2011.
The following information is available for each record: certified organization, certification date
and country. As the certification scheme awards certificates with a validity of three years, it is
possible to know which certificates are valid at any time. One limitation, though probably with
little impact on this study, is the fact that it is impossible to detect which certifications have not
remained valid over the 3 years due to their not meeting one or both of the two follow-up audits
required by the certification scheme.
Figure 2 shows the time distribution of the records obtained cumulatively over time and also
records for current certifications. For the discrete analysis, to be conducted subsequently, a
sample is obtained of the number of records with fewer than 3 years antiquity at the end of each
year, shown by means of a point on the graph.
Figure 3: ISO 20000 Certification records worldwide obtained from APMG records
The work focusing on obtained data obviously implies some limitations. Firstly, the entire
analysis implies that number of certificates is used as an indicator of a particular standard’s
development and diffusion, provided that external conditions do not change substantially (such
as legislative changes that make them mandatory or requirements for contracting). Moreover, it
should also be considered that not all organizations that use MS are certified, or are obliged to
be; this is a limitation of all studies of this type for any MS. And finally, while it may be con-
sidered a limitation to only use data from one management company of a certification scheme,
even if it is the most recognized and has the largest number of certifications, it is also true that
we believe we are working with the most consistent accessible data possible.
International impact of ISO 20000
In order to obtain an initial overview of the impact of ISO 20000 around the world, the first
analysis we undertook was of its current geographical distribution and evolution. To this end,
the certificates to be analyzed were classified by geographical area or continent, defined as ar-
eas, using the same criterion used by ISO in its surveys [10]. The same criterion is later used in
determining countries.
Table 4 and Table 5 show the certificates issued at the end of each year and those currently valid
by area. To determine which certificates are valid, those certificates with over three years’ antiq-
uity are eliminated, as they are considered to be past their validity date. For each year statistics
are given for absolute number of certificates (N), percentage of world total (%) and change
from previous year (∂%). All data are from the year 2006 onwards, when implementation of
this standard began.

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Table 4 Certificates issued
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

N % N % % N % % N % % N % % N % %
Africa and
0 0% 1 2% - 1 1% 0% 4 2% 300% 5 3% 25% 3 1% -40%
East Asia
Asia 5 83% 22 46% 340% 42 45% 91% 85 46% 102% 86 45% 1% 116 56% 35%
Oceania 0 0% 1 2% - 3 3% 200% 1 1% -67% 0 0% -100% 0 0% -
Central
and South 0 0% 1 2% - 1 1% 0% 4 2% 300% 8 4% 100% 4 2% -50%
America
North
0 0% 6 13% 5 5% -17% 12 7% 140% 13 7% 8% 18 9% 38%
America
Europe 1 17% 17 35% 1600% 41 44% 141% 77 42% 88% 80 42% 4% 66 32% -18%
World
6 48 700% 93 94% 183 97% 192 5% 207 8%
Total

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Table 5 Currently valid certificates
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

N % N % % N % % N % % N % % N % %
Africa and East Asia 0 0% 1 2% 2 1% 100% 6 2% 200% 10 2% 67% 12 2% 20%
Asia 5 83% 27 50% 440% 69 47% 156% 149 46% 116% 213 46% 43% 287 49% 35%
Oceania 0 0% 1 2% 4 3% 300% 5 2% 25% 4 1% -20% 1 0% -75%
Central and South
0 0% 1 2% 2 1% 100% 6 2% 200% 13 3% 117% 16 3% 23%
America
North America 0 0% 6 11% 11 7% 83% 23 7% 109% 30 6% 30% 43 7% 43%
Europe 1 17% 18 33% 1700% 59 40% 228% 135 42% 129% 198 42% 47% 223 38% 13%
World Total 6 54 800% 147 172% 324 120% 468 44% 582 24%
It is noticeable that until 2009 there is a sharp increase in certifications worldwide, as in those years certifications nearly double from the previous
year (97%), which had seen a similar increase (94%). By contrast, from 2010 onwards certificates issued worldwide stagnate, with almost marginal
increases of 5%.
With regard to the latest trends, the slowdown seems to be consolidated in 2011, with global growth of only 8%. By area, Europe stands out as
already being in a clear recessionary phase, with a contraction of -18%, while Asia and North America grow by over 35%.
We are therefore now in a phase of slow global growth, but with a clear geographical redistribution. Asia has taken over from Europe in the leader-
ship of ISO 20000 certifications, proof of which is that in the two years between 2009 and 2011 certificates issued in Asia rise from 46% to 56%
of the total.
On a greater level of detail than areas, a disaggregated analysis was performed by country. With this analysis it is hoped that differences or speci-
ficities of each national market come to the surface, behavior that possibly might be parallel to that of other standards in the same country. Thus,
Table 6 shows the top 15 countries in ISO 20000 certifications, including the number of current certificates and their share of the world total. This
is compared with the 15 countries with the most successful management standards certifications in the world, namely the ISO 9001, ISO 140001
and ISO 27001. The number of certificates is also shown for ISO 20000.
From the list of leading countries for ISO 20000, Japan stands out as the undisputed leader due to absolute number of certifications, almost doubling
China in second place. This Asian leadership is confirmed by the presence of four other Asian countries (South Korea, India, Taiwan and Hong
Kong) for a total of six of the top ten.

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Table 6 Top 15 countries for each standard
ISO 20000 APMG Registers year 2011 ISO Survey of certifications year 2011
Rank ISO 20000 Cert Share ISO 9001 ISO 14001 ISO 27001
1 Japan 85 15% China China Japan
2 China 47 8% Italy Japan India
3 United Kingdom 43 7% Japan Italy United Kingdom
4 USA 41 7% Spain Spain China
5 Korea, Republic 40 7% Germany United Kingdom Taipei, China
of
6 India 40 7% United Kingdom Korea, Republic Romania
of
7 Taipei, China 27 5% India Romania Spain
8 Germany 23 4% France France Italy
9 Hong Kong 19 3% Brazil Germany Germany
10 Czech Republic 18 3% Korea, Republic USA USA
of
11 Spain 16 3% USA Czech Republic Czech Republic
12 Switzerland 15 3% Romania India Poland
13 Italy 14 2% Czech Republic Sweden Korea, Republic
of
14 Brazil 11 2% Russian Federa- Brazil Hungary
tion
15 Austria 11 2% Netherlands Thailand Bulgaria
Comparing the number of ISO 20000 certifications with the three aforementioned standards,
we observe that most countries are leaders for all or several standards. In fact, what is impor-
tant is to observe how all countries situated in first place coincide at the top of other standards,
indicating that countries with a widespread diffusion of general management standards such
as ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 are also leaders in the more specific field, specifically technology
management, the scope of ISO 20000 and ISO 27001.
To this we should also add that thos countries only appearing in the ISO 20000 list are coun-
tries of a smaller size but with high technological development in services. Specifically, Taipei,
Hong Kong and Switzerland.
Moreover, it is worth noting the leading countries for the other standards which do not appear as
leaders in the case of ISO 20000: the Russian Federation and France for ISO 9001 and Romania
for ISO 27001. Although it would be hazardous to venture an explanation without going into a
more detailed study, it is worth noting that not all of the relevant certifying bodies in different
countries adhere to the itSMF / AMPG scheme, meaning they would not be included in this
article. This may cause some one-off distortions for a particular country, but they should not be
generalized.
This first exploratory analysis certainly indicates some trends, which might clearly be erroneous
if the size of the different countries is not taken into account. In order to improve the analysis,
and as detailed in the methodology section, certification intensity is used. This is calculated by
means of number of certificates and GDP and population size as indicators of country size. This
information was obtained from data published by the World Bank (The World Bank, n.d.) for

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2011, except for Taipei, for which the World Bank provides no data. Data from the International
Monetary Found were used for this country. Thus, Table 7 shows the GDP of the leading 15
countries in terms of ISO 20000 certifications, together with the absolute number of certifica-
tions in these countries for the other three MSS considered to be most relevant. ISO certification
intensities are included for these standards.
Table 7 Top 15 countries in ISO 20000 certificates
ISO ISO ISO ISO

ISO ISO ISO ISO 20000 9001 14001 27001
Country 20000 9001 14001 27001 Intensity Intensity Intensity Intensity
Japan 85 56.912 30.397 6914 1,46 0,51 1,14 3,73
China 47 328.213 81.993 1219 0,65 2,37 2,47 0,53
United Kingdom 43 43.564 15.231 1360 1,78 0,95 1,38 1,77
USA 41 25.811 4.957 313 0,27 0,09 0,07 0,07
Korea, Republic
40 27.284 10.925 190 3,62 1,29 2,16 0,54
of
India 40 29.574 4.147 1427 2,18 0,85 0,50 2,44
Taipei 27 8.335 2.059 791 5,67 0,92 0,95 5,21
Germany 23 49.540 6.253 424 0,65 0,73 0,39 0,38
Hong Kong 19 3.698 985 99 7,87 0,80 0,89 1,28
Czech republic 18 12.697 4.451 301 8,44 3,12 4,57 4,42
Spain 16 53.057 16.341 642 1,08 1,88 2,42 1,36
Switzerland 15 10.182 2.421 66 2,38 0,85 0,84 0,33
Italy 14 171.947 21.009 503 0,64 4,14 2,11 0,72
Brazil 11 28.325 3.517 50 0,45 0,60 0,31 0,06
Austria 11 9.659 963 59 2,65 1,22 0,51 0,45
The above Table confirms our previous analysis. In general, those countries that have had a
higher certification intensity for standards such as ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 also do so for ISO
20000. For example, the Czech Republic is the country with the highest intensity in three of the
four standards, whereas the United States has three of the lowest four. This parallelism is seen
even more clearly if we look at only the two standards relating to technology: ISO 20000 and
ISO 27000. To this end, it is sufficient to observe the behavior of countries like Taipei, Japan
and the UK. In short, this highlights the huge impact countries can have in the diffusion of these
standards when it comes to implementing laws and promotional activity. Together with this we
must also bear in mind the ease with which all actors (firms, consultants, certification agencies,
...) can implement a standard once they already have experience of previous standards.
In order to analyze this aspect, namely, the parallelism detected between implementations of the
different standards, the above data were correlated, obtaining the results shown in Table 8. This
confirms the previous results, by identifying first a clear correlation between the countries with
the most ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 certifications, but also a clear relationship in certification
intensity for both standards.
However, what is most novel is finding that there is a clear correlation between the countries
with most ISO 20000 and most ISO 27001 certifications, also confirming the first findings.
This high correlation also appears when analyzing countries’ certification intensity for both
standards, indicating that countries with an intensive implementation of ISO 20000 also have
the same for ISO 27001.

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This therefore confirms that if ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 are correlated together, so are ISO 20000 and ISO 27001. The appearance of these pairs
in correlations suggests the existence of countries which are clearly more “technically advanced” or more “service-oriented” than others, a finding
which should be analyzed in more detail.
Further analysis also shows a negative correlation between a country’s certification intensity and its GDP. This should be interpreted as the coun-
tries with the highest GDP being less intensive in terms of certification. Said finding coincides with the initial perception of the great impact these
regulations have in small-sized countries with great technological potential.
Table 8 Pearson Correlations
ISO ISO ISO ISO Int Int Int Int GDP GDP
9001 14001 20000 27001 ISO ISO ISO ISO per
9001 14001 20000 27001 capita
ISO Pearson’s 1 ,932** ,219 ,118 ,524* ,302 -,407 -,228 ,307 -,366
9001 Correlation
Sig. (bilat- ,000 ,433 ,676 ,045 ,273 ,132 ,413 ,266 ,180
eral)
ISO Pearson’s ,932** 1 ,463 ,343 ,342 ,330 -,350 -,097 ,345 -,354
14001 Correlation
Sig. (bilat- ,000 ,082 ,210 ,213 ,229 ,201 ,732 ,207 ,195
eral)
ISO Pearson’s ,219 ,463 1 ,856** -,300 -,048 -,209 ,296 ,478 -,073
20000 Correlation
Sig. (bilat- ,433 ,082 ,000 ,278 ,866 ,455 ,284 ,071 ,797
eral)
ISO Pearson’s ,118 ,343 ,856** 1 -,181 -,028 -,180 ,431 ,224 ,055
27001 Correlation
Sig. (bilat- ,676 ,210 ,000 ,518 ,922 ,521 ,109 ,421 ,845
eral)

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Int ISO Pearson’s ,524* ,342 -,300 -,181 1 ,764** ,127 ,093 -,269 -,269
9001 Correlation
Sig. (bilat- ,045 ,213 ,278 ,518 ,001 ,653 ,742 ,332 ,332
eral)
Int ISO Pearson’s ,302 ,330 -,048 -,028 ,764** 1 ,416 ,363 -,265 -,345
14001 Correlation
Sig. (bilat- ,273 ,229 ,866 ,922 ,001 ,123 ,184 ,340 ,208
eral)
Int ISO Pearson’s -,407 -,350 -,209 -,180 ,127 ,416 1 ,578* -,516* -,144
20000 Correlation
Sig. (bilat- ,132 ,201 ,455 ,521 ,653 ,123 ,024 ,049 ,609
eral)
Int ISO Pearson’s -,228 -,097 ,296 ,431 ,093 ,363 ,578* 1 -,275 -,260
27001 Correlation
Sig. (bilat- ,413 ,732 ,284 ,109 ,742 ,184 ,024 ,322 ,350
eral)
GDP Pearson’s ,307 ,345 ,478 ,224 -,269 -,265 -,516* -,275 1 ,062
Correlation
Sig. (bilat- ,266 ,207 ,071 ,421 ,332 ,340 ,049 ,322 ,826
eral)
GDP Pearson’s -,366 -,354 -,073 ,055 -,269 -,345 -,144 -,260 ,062 1
Per Correlation
capita Sig. (bilat- ,180 ,195 ,797 ,845 ,332 ,208 ,609 ,350 ,826
eral)
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (bilateral).
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (bilateral).

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Diffusion of ISO 20000 and future outlook

Having analyzed the current situation, the aim of this paper is to predict future behavior. In this respect, and as mentioned above, several previous
studies [29-31] support the use of the logistic curve to model the behavior in time of the number of certifications for a particular standard. Therefore,
we performed a non-linear regression to forecast the future status of ISO 20000 certifications, allowing us to determine the value of the dependent
variables and obtain the equation of the logistic curve that best fits existing data. The same exercise was conducted previously for the other refer-
ence standards using ISO data, with the results provided in Table 9.
Table 9 Data for logistic curve regressions
ISO 20000 ISO 9001 ISO 14001 ISO 27001

DF Sum sq DF Sum sq DF Sum sq DF Sum sq
Regression 3 690295,393 3 8,691E12 3 2,895E11 3 8,960E8
Residual 3 490,607 17 1,409E10 10 2,359E8 3 899647,049
Uncorrected To- 13 2,897E11 6 8,969E8
6 690786,000 20 8,705E12
tal
Corrected Total 5 272610,000 19 2,746E12 12 9,208E10 5 1,070E8
R squared 0,998 0,995 0,997 0,992
ISO 20000 ISO 9001 ISO 14001 ISO 27001

Value LL UL Value LL UL Value LL UL Value LL UL
No 18,347 4,731 31,963 64336,026 48974,616 79697,436 19658,660 15812,605 23504,715 5575,359 4171,664 6979,054
K 636,955 551,526 722,383 1271334,639 1177215,774 1365453,504 358981,003 313144,253 404817,754 25775,253 8038,444 43512,061
r0 1,162 0,858 1,467 0,264 0,234 0,295 0,331 0,291 0,370 0,416 0,138 0,693
First, we obtained a high goodness-of-fit for the resulting model from the regression analysis, as the determination coefficients (R squared) are
greater than 0.99 in all cases. This allows us to obtain values for the three dependent variables (No, k and r0) that characterize each of the logistic
curves for each standard. Furthermore, the parameters of the curves were subjected to a confidence interval of 95%, with the result that the values
obtained represent the lower confidence limit (LL) and upper confidence limit (UL).

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In the cases of the reference standards used, ISO 9001 and ISO 14001, there is further confirma-
tion of the findings identified in previous studies (Llach et al., 2010; Marimon et al., 2006), even
including the new available data. Thus, we see that the behavior of both standards is perfectly
modelable following the pattern of the logistic curve, confirming the predictions made by pre-
vious studies while generating new forecasts for the coming years. Specifically, the saturation
level is situated at around 1,200,000 ISO 9001 certifications in 2016, and 350,000 ISO 14001 in
2019. Table 10 shows the characteristics of the generated model, and Figures 3 and 4 the fore-
cast evolution over time. These Figures show the points representing certifications for each year
and the logistic curve with the parameters obtained in the regression. The dotted lines represent
the curves corresponding to the upper and lower limits at 95% confidence interval. Thus, we
can clearly observe that all points representing certification values remain within the confidence
intervals for both standards.
Table 10 ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 results of regressions
ISO 9001 Marimon et al Llach et al ISO 14001 Marimon et al

Current Current
Forecast 2006 2010 Forecast 2006
Certificates Certificates
2002 2008 2011 2002 2011
up to up to
No 43102,8528 233499,92 64336,026 No 1013,1052 19658,660
K 817539,0186 1327135,81 1271334,639 K 77416,9573 358981,003
r0 0,3693 0,191 0,264 r0 0,699 0,331
Figure 4: Forecast ISO 9001 certifications

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Figure 5: Forecast ISO 14001 certifications

However, said prior analysis of the ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 standards serves only to reinforce
the idea that a parallel analysis could be performed, with some robustness, for the ISO 20000.
If in the exploratory analysis some similarities already detected in terms of countrywide impact,
we suppose that there might also be parallels in their future evolution. Thus, for the case of ISO
20000 we observe that, with data available for the years 2006-2011, the model fits to a near-
perfect logistic curve, as shown by the R squared of 0.998 (Figure 5). It is also observed that the
saturation level for the last point is very high, this being the value of 582 for certifications valid
for 2011, very close to the value at which certifications should be saturated, which according to
the model is 637 in 2013. According to these estimates, then, the latest data would indicate that
ISO 20000 certification is at 91.6% saturation point.

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Figure 6 ISO 20000 logistic curve

Finally, although not the main objective of this article, it is worth noting that ISO 27001 certifi-
cates also adjust their evolution to a logistic curve; no references to earlier studies have been
found to put this in context. The saturation point for this standard is expected for 2016, with
nearly 25,000 certificates globally.

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Figure 7 ISO 27001 logistic curve

Having defined the above four models, each on its corresponding scale, we can now scale the
curve, not to the absolute value of the number of certifications but to the percentage of the theo-
retical saturation point (K). Figure 7 shows the 4 superimposed curves as percentages of their
saturation points.
It is easy to observe in graphic terms how the slope of the curve, which is determined by the
parameter r0 of each standard, represents the speed at which each becomes saturated. A greater
slope indicates fewer years to achieve this level K saturation. Thus we have: ISO 9001 (r0 =
0.264), ISO 14001 (r0 = 0.331), ISO 27001 (r0 = 0.416) and ISO 20000 (r0 = 1.162). Two very
important conclusions can be drawn from this which have not been detected previously in the
literature. Firstly, each new standard that has appeared on the market has undergone a signifi-
cantly faster diffusion than the previous one, confirming a learning effect for the participating
actors (companies, consultants, certifying bodies, ...) or a more rapid integration of new stan-
dards in the management system of the company. And secondly, we observe how all models,

16th QMOD−ICQSS

regardless of their impact in terms of number of implementations, reach global market satura-
tion by approximately 2016.
In fact, this diffusion of different standards together seems to reinforce the proposal that the lo-
gistic curve model can, over time, be integrated into a higher order curve, with a possible fractal
logistic curve appearing (Modis, 1994)or a sequence of linked curves. Within this small logistic
curves would exist as components of larger logistic curves. It may prove possible to confirm
that this is precisely the case with the diffusion of different management standards.
Figure 8 Logistic curves superimposed as percentage of saturation point

Conclusions
This paper has introduced ISO 20000 as the first international standard that defines a service
management system. Initially designed for IT services, the standard can be applied to other
types of services, as demonstrated by various real-life experiences. This flexibility is one of the
characteristics that can make this a standard with a promising future and a significant capacity
to evolve. In fact, we have seen how certification progressed very fast up until the end of 2009,
even if this increase has slowed sharply in the past two years.
In order to explore the impact of this standard, we have conducted various analyses. From the
Impact Study by continents we observe a clear dominance of Asia and Europe, with a slight
downward trend in Europe and slightly increasing in Asia and North America. Moreover, in

16th QMOD−ICQSS

the country analysis we detect the importance of smaller countries with strong technological
capabilities (Taipei, South Korea, Switzerland, ..). In addition, it should also be noted that the
leading countries in ISO 20000 certifications largely coincide with the leading countries for
the other analyzed standards (ISO 27001, ISO 9001 and ISO 14001), whether in terms of the
absolute number of certifications or ISO 20000 certification intensity. There is also a strong
correlation between countries with most ISO 20000 and ISO 27001 certifications, from which
we can deduce the major impact countries’ promotion and regulatory activities have on the dif-
fusion of standards.
Furthermore, forecasts have been made for certifications of the standard, using a logistic curve
model that has proved very effective in previous studies on other management standards. In the
case of ISO 20000, this model has also proved itself to be very strong, and we have deduced
from this that, if there are no major changes in the environment, the number of certificates is
already very close to anticipated saturation levels: just over 600 certifications worldwide.
The most interesting contribution of this paper, however, related precisely to the analysis pro-
vided by these projection models, is detecting that each new standard requires much less time to
reach its saturation level. In fact, it has been reduced from almost 20 years (ISO 9001) to about
6 years (ISO 20000). Therefore, the less diffusion a standard has with regard to the total number
of certifications, the faster it approaches its saturation level. This suggests an important learning
process on the part of the organizations involved (companies, certifying bodies, etc.) and pos-
sibly a high capacity for integration of new MSS standards previously existing in the company.
Finally, we have also detected, as expected, that the four standards analyzed will reach their
saturation level at the same time, around the year 2016.
All of these contributions can be added to those of the one previous study [31] detected in the
field on the diffusion of ISO 20000. It should be noted that said research, as a first contribution,
only focused on a few selected countries, with a much shorter time period and analyzing very
different aspects to this paper.
The main limitation of this study is its use of the only possible source of data, offered by a
single accreditation body. While it is very prestigious, drawing together a large number of cer-
tifying bodies, it does not include all of them. Thus, in each country different certifying bodies
dominate or capture greater market share and as not all of them are accredited under the same
scheme, there may appear isolated cases of countries with a number of certifications that do
not appear in this study. To this must be added, like all analyses in the field, the impossibility
of including companies that apply this standard but are not certified. In any event, it would be
desirable for future studies that ISO collect and publish certification data for ISO 20000, thus
facilitating comparisons.
Finally, it is worth pointing out that further study will be required on the behavior of the stan-
dard, not only to validate or refute the present research, but to do so in light of new evidence
as it emerges. It would be interesting to study the future evolution of certifications in the light
of a larger set of data in order to compare the actual performance with the forecasts made here.
It would also be interesting to carry out a detailed study of motivations, challenges, benefits
and integration of ISO 20000 with other MS, aspects not analyzed in the literature, which could
include not only companies with current certification, but also those which have abandoned
certification after having it and even companies that have dismissed the idea of certification
despite using the standard.

16th QMOD−ICQSS

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Exploring the Service Management Standard ISO 20000.

Conference Paper · September 2013

Santi Cots Marti Casadesus

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Standardized Innovation Management System (SIMS) impact View project

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30. Sandi Cots, Martí Casadesús Fa

Exploring the Service Management

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Quality and Management Standards (MS)

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Table 1 Some MSS

MSS Area of application

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standards have overlapping implementation areas or are complementary.

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Table 2 Some differences between ITIL and ISO 20000

ITIL v2011 ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011

ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011 Service-management system requirements

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New and Retired services

Figure 1: ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011 SMS model

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Figure 2: ISO 20000 processes

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7466-4b18-a152-38035da6a234” ] } ], “mendeley” : { “previouslyFormattedCitation” :

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Table 4 Certificates issued

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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Table 5 Currently valid certificates

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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Table 6 Top 15 countries for each standard

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ISO ISO ISO ISO

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Diffusion of ISO 20000 and future outlook

ISO 20000 ISO 9001 ISO 14001 ISO 27001