Asset

Deterioration
Based on the presentation of Dr. Hesham Othman

Asset Deterioration
Definition

 Asset deterioration is defined as: The

decrease in condition state of an
infrastructure asset over time

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 Asset Deterioration
What factors contribute to asset deterioration?
 Ageing (time)

 Surrounding Environmental Factors (e.g. soil properties, traffic load,

weather, etc…)

 Infrastructure asset attribues (e.g. material type, quality of

workmanship, etc….)

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Asset Deterioration
Typical Asset Deterioration
 The rate of deterioration is expected to gradually increase with
time.

A typical deterioration curve (without maintenance activities)

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 Asset Deterioration
Reliability Engineering
 Another way of evaluating deterioration is through the probability of
failure
 The “bathtub curve” is used in reliability engineering

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Asset Deterioration
Reliability Engineering
 In the first section, with a decreasing failure rate, the asset is prone
to failure due to “infant mortality” typically due to construction or
fabrication errors
 In the second section, assets may experience random failure, but
typically have a low failure rate
 In the third section, where the failure rate begins to increase again,
the assets fail due to age and use they become worn out

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 Asset Deterioration
Deterioration Models

 Deterministic Models - Regression

 Stochastic Models - Markov Models

 Artificial intelligence - based models

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Asset Deterioration
Deterioration Models

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 Asset Deterioration

Regression Analysis

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Asset Deterioration Models

Regression Models - Deterministic
 Models deterioration by attempting to develop a mathematical
function that relates one or more deterioration factor to asset
condition

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Regression Models - Deterministic
 A deterministic model outputs a single condition value for a given
set of inputs
 Deterministic models are typically displayed as functions
 The simplest of these types of models is created using linear
regression, but exponential and other, more complex functions can
produce more accurate results
 Empirical models are developed by relating condition scores to
explanatory variables (such as age, material type, loading
conditions, etc) usually through a regression process

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Asset Deterioration Models

Regression Models - Deterministic

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Regression Models - Deterministic

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Asset Deterioration Models

Types of Regression Models

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Linear Regression Models - Example

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Asset Deterioration Models

Linear Regression Models - Example

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Linear Regression Models - Example
 To determine the best predictor, calculate the Correlation coefficient
or each independent variable

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Asset Deterioration Models

Linear Regression Models - Example

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Linear Regression Models - Example

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Asset Deterioration Models

Linear Regression Models - Example

 Correlation coefficient

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Linear Regression Models - Example
 We will now develop a multiple regression model based on the two
independent variables that were found to be of significance

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Asset Deterioration Models

Linear Regression Models - Example
 Solve using Excel

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Linear Regression Models - Example
 Solve using Excel

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Asset Deterioration

Markov Models

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Markov Chain Models
 Example of stochastic process (evolving of radom variables over
time)
 For a given system with a set of states: X0, X1, X2, …… ,Xn
 Markov probability of moving to state n+1 (conditional probability)
= P(Xn+1 = j \ Xn=i, Xn-1=i-1, …….. , X0 = i0
= P(Xn+1 = j \ Xn=i)
= qij (Transition probability)
 Future state is conditionality independent given the present

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Asset Deterioration Models

Markov Chain Models
 A Markov chain contains a
 A set of states
 A set of associated transition probabilities
 For every pair of states i and j, there is an associated transition
probability P(ij) of moving from state i to state j
 For any time t, P(ij) is the probability of the Markov process
being in state j at time t+1 given that it is in state i at time t
 Different from traditional probability theory because the
knowledge of previous outcomes (or states) will influence the
current outcome
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 Asset Deterioration Models
Markov Chain Models
 A Markov chain is about

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Asset Deterioration Models

Specifying Markov Chain
 A Markov chain is about
 Given a set of states: S={s1, s2, s3, ….sn}
 The Markov process starts in one of these states
 A move from one state to the next is called a ‘step’
 The probability of stepping from state si to state sj is denoted by pij
 pij are called transition probabilities
 The system can stay in its current state this is denoted by pii
 pij does not depend on which state the system was in before sj.

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Transition Probability Matrix
1/2
1/3 2/3 1 1/4
1/2
1 2 3 4
1/2 1/4

 Then, the probability transition matrix is:

1 2 3 4
1 1/3 2/3 0 0

2 1/2 0 1/2 0

3 0 0 0 1

4 1/2 0 1/4 1/4

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Asset Deterioration Models

Transition Probability Matrix
 Generally, the transition probabilities are represented by a matrix of
order (n x n) called the transition probability matrix [TPM]

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Transition Probability Matrix
 Since Assets deteriorate with time, then the bottom triangle of the
TPM can be made of zero probabilities. Also deterioration happens
gradually, hence assets deteriorates only to the next state, and as
such the TPM can be reduced as below

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Asset Deterioration Models

Forecasting Future State: Example
 Given the condition at given time [IPo], then the future condition
vector [FPt], after (t) transition periods, can be calculated as follows:
FPt = IPo ⋅TPMt

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Forecasting Future State: Example

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Asset Deterioration

Artificial intelligence Models

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 Asset Deterioration Models
Neural Networks Models
 Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) also named “Connectionist Models”
or “Parallel Distributed Processing (PDP)”
 ANN consists of a pool of simple processing units “called neurons or
cells” which communicate by sending signals to each other over a
large number of weighted connections

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Asset Deterioration Models

Neural Networks Models
 ANN behave like a human brain. It
demonstrates the ability to learn, recall, and
generalize from training pattern or data
 The processing element in ANN also called
“Neuron”
 A human brain consists of 10 billions neurons
 Each biological neuron is connected to several
thousands of other neurons, similar to the
connectivity in ANN

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 Asset Deterioration Models
General Structure of ANN

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Asset Deterioration Models

Neural Networks Models
 Identify the factors affecting the deterioration of a given asset
 Collect the data relates to this factors including the asset
condition
 Build the architectural of the ANN in terms of the number on
hidden layers, no. of neurons in each layer, the learing rate,
activation function, etc.
 Train the ANN
 Test and validate the network
 Use the network for prediction

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