Años Ventas Pronostico Año T1 T2

1 2010 12,500 12,338 2010 34% 13%

2 2011 12,800 12,830 2011 20% 35%
3 2012 13,200 13,321 2012 21% 30%
4 2013 13,700 13,812 2013 15% 21%
5 2014 14,200 14,304
6 2015 15,000 14,795
Año Trimestres Ventas
2009 T4
B A T1 4250
491.428571 11846.6667 T2 1625
2010
T3 4125
T4 2500
α 0.45 T1 2560
T2 4480
2011
k 3 T3 2816
T4 2944
T1 2772
T2 3960
2012
T3 3696
T4 2772

Año Trimestres Ventas

2009 T4
T1 4250
T2 1625
2010
T3 4125
T4 2500
T1 2560
T2 4480
2011
T3 2816
T4 2944
T1 2772
T2 3960
2012
T3 3696
T4 2772
 T3 T4 Año T1 T2 T3 T4
33% 20% 2010 4250 1625 4125 2500
22% 23% 2011 2560 4480 2816 2944
28% 21% 2012 2772 3960 3696 2772
31% 33% 2013 2055 2877 4247 4521
2909.2500 3235.5000 3721.0000 3184.2500

Sin estac. Error Con esta Erro Estacionalidad

102
4194.9524 -55.0476
1603.9524 -21.0476
4071.5714 -53.4286
2467.6190 -32.3810
2482.1905 -77.8095 2537.2381 -22.7619 -55.0476
2517.2048 -1962.7952 2538.2524 -1941.7476 -21.0476
3400.4626 584.4626 3453.8912 637.8912 -53.4286
3137.4544 193.4544 3169.8354 225.8354 -32.3810
3050.3999 278.3999 3128.2095 356.2095 -77.8095
2925.1200 -1034.8800 4887.9152 927.9152 -1962.7952
3390.8160 -305.1840 2806.3534 -889.6466 584.4626
3528.1488 756.1488 3334.6943 562.6943 193.4544

Sin estac. Error Con esta Error Estacionalidad

102

3333.3333 833.3333
2750.0000 190.0000
3061.6667 -1418.3333
3180.0000 364.0000
3285.3333 341.3333 2452.0000 -492.0000 833.3333
3413.3333 641.3333 3223.3333 451.3333 190.0000
2844.0000 -1116.0000 4262.3333 302.3333 -1418.3333
3225.3333 -470.6667 2861.3333 -834.6667 364.0000
3476.0000 704.0000 3134.6667 362.6667 341.3333
 Año T1 T2 T3 T4
2010 1.3027 0.4981 1.2644 0.7663
2011 0.7847 1.3732 0.8631 0.9024
2012 0.8497 1.2138 1.1329 0.8497
2013 0.6299 0.8818 1.3018 1.3857
3262.5000 0.8917 0.9917 1.1405 0.9760

Años Ventas Pronostico SCE SCR STCC

1 2010 12,500 12,338 26213.1519 1509387.76 1137777.78
2 2011 12,800 12,830 871.655329 543379.592 587777.778
3 2012 13,200 13,321 14629.4785 60375.5102 134444.444
4 2013 13,700 13,812 12629.4785 60375.5102 17777.7778
5 2014 14,200 14,304 10776.4172 543379.592 401111.111
6 2015 15,000 14,795 41927.4376 1509387.76 2054444.44
107047.619 4226285.71 4333333.33

α 0.95
1-α 0.05
probabi 0.025

Grados de lIb 5
 r2 S2 Sxx t cal t tabla Fuentes de Var Sc
0.9752967 26761.9048 6.25 12.5666904 2.57058184 Regresion 4226285.71
r S 2.25 Error 107047.619
0.98757111 163.590662 0.25 Total 4333333.33
0.25
2.25
6.25
17.5
Gl CM F F tabla
1 4226285.71 157.921708 12.2178626
4 26761.9048
5