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  • Bai Bao - Tin

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    Xuan Long
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    Phân tích sở hữu xe máy hộ gia đình tại TP.HCM

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    Bai bao_Tin

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    Phân tích sở hữu xe máy hộ gia đình tại TP.HCM

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    5 views6 pages

    Bai Bao - Tin

    Uploaded by

    Xuan Long
    Phân tích sở hữu xe máy hộ gia đình tại TP.HCM

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 6
    zw 155N 2354-0818 GIAO THONG (CO QUAN THONG TIN LY LUAN KHOA HOC CONG NGHE CUA BO GIAO THONG VAN TAI a tai THANG 1220160 THUS7 | tapchilaethog.m vantal TREN MAT TRAN phat trién ha tang giao thong 32 34 36 38 41 a7 51 54 Sea Che ear eo MUC LUC mgmt bt ag 6: CoD ‘hen thc vatngnan Dvng Mam Nevpout ead Rays lve Operon, cde ete am aay er ce wnos edn hi én yc ién bane bo See othe 2016 molar plan hove bn spend nina Pe wi thong mal thg ga vn apn Bn ituyennrang nn gy Dewy tate ough he cr tr ropa : ho reona rot abenvnt Ores namaty ang eapscnin Cn natin et cogent fe adv ‘bt dog in cing nga it nog ‘cg ining ct i th CP ong i ot Eegtadn ce ngmtte "ba of vow ms. vo ut wa pon re naurEN none api akc oh bam dn i eg ‘ahi tbe ip vd hp aca ido ns ng ost ac ey a ‘cumitneo ASO STepng ocr mx by exing of Inde sreng of rpaed od and cote Sey mao wae Sano es ‘a. nour vin Ta Pos Te. WO ODE ce ld yc eh it bong i bt og rlogmiciog tahoe ry ‘papas oe nour, Tes, nour vn TU "Pa doo Pa MY ON, “Te tin chp he dy yp hp Bog ‘ha new eh tra og cdo ‘Gag min ng 010 feria th cg ee ey cn ot 13. NoUYEN TN 91, 08.78. PA CHO THAN, 6 0 n 75 81 88 "ican sc hing cin ng ning th saterntn 3 Deemmotan she estoof et by ‘6 NCOHEGE OU POS. TH KTM BNE hit ov 5 dg to by lm mang mbt aiimgete Oya rat na TS Ten TO TONS gin cv bmg ne cn ning doch chctpin tng tat RSC Md "es LE noo pve, nouyEn URN LONG Ssh cc tong pip pin tn on ‘ang sic cb ama ey pn i ong ‘agin pei fea ant g forte vo na; 08.8 nourEN Nope Lowe “rene am tape opi 68 hing 9s och x mt of eng hog Sime che reper nope ‘na maura mE HOW Bb tn eas ng dt rn ong "TWO ch ch toch ong hub ate Soy gee a een ‘ne ncuron nee ‘re maurds wv wv 18 rE nD he en at he te Snoetnginston “ ‘ns mdr ‘ng ng me gh ng 0 ah ‘einghumsgphae ral ben ah Zoot pee fon Ser eae ’ Teo TmUoN BO Mt vin vi gunn wc cig cp vg ce ‘hichy eu vonamnatoe Sovepren cto tase tye le “ha VO QUANG TR, TS LUOWO YAN Se ee a a 95 98 100 104 108 m1 16 in cu i pai tng cxtng in coh nfs (yp cea vg gb mio ry ‘hetehathop pin . Wwe sow 18. Hohn oot oe “hog quan vb nm ph song bn hd ht evicam arn 9 binges nh hpi 8 ‘lng pura php ah etierpt one oy mm 15 ona gr Ws Ts. ome OU WO ‘va vO von n,n TA ‘entoncge don utc dyngciativeng gang Sogn Ppa urd tm na 7808 040 rs ctobe ver ti en yogi wong ie ing {Whang tom ‘maven 8 gh Os 3 me mb inh hi i 9h Seine ors rn gen seitapepaincpragriete ‘6 ca ming sm pi poe porrtane Melipitententlen eating rere propre et eh iv tn pdm wing vo git ‘hand np cng bien Nom ermgentincoingemmerneinie Wars 18 0b aa ro ay dg nove en, pht ant ‘lng veing hg minh nnn 2093, rlrte tna 8 1 Metin cng te gun nat ong sitet Snape Sn ny s.rna i cvon0 123 Gerd am vb nop enw vie ea ei cg teeta ieneiapaarane rs 2) alec nt dang ing doonh oh via {dina ann ape 6 bg sna nauren tr rane 1131 Xb nm a it 9 sult a ga (ermine raring pr ai ing ‘ea nnn ru ae 195 i eh yn cng Sn we cng te TreaeinaheySumuoat ‘rs.suiek neu 1130 Pain en shu semi gla ih eT MS Cuan ‘es. mourn mor 18, nour ube Lona 5 Sancti tong tam ama hag seep cng cng ovat am Tiscud eer mens pt bareten 147 Ofna bang pc 8 ini aqat flo may en Seaton Irengergouna onsamenos apna KHOA HQC - CONG NGHE $6 12/2016 Phan tich sé hu xe may hé gia dinh tai TP. H6 Chi Minh | KS. NGUYEN MINH TIN; TS. NGUYEN XUAN LONG - Tr¥éng Doi hoc Bach Khoa TP. HS ChiMinh TOM TAT: Nghién cuu fim hidu cle yéu 18 Sh hudng dn vite $6 hou xe may ede ese hb gia inh (HGD) te TP. Hb Chi Minh Cée md hin a chon phn tach (disaggregate choice models) duge xem it ép dung dé lobe ching 8c dng én vige 56 how xe my ca cbc shim yeu 15: O3C iden ho gia dinh, dc diémn xe méy £6 hou, ddC idem chuyén di vi di chung xe. K6t qué nghién thy cho thy, Nu ht che yu 16 nk Hen de bh hhudng €6 ¥ Aghia één 56 luong xe may $8 HOw HGD_ De bier, yu 16 41 chung xe 6 dah hubng én cic phuong an $6 hou xe may HGD, cho théy vee céc mé hinh di chung xe nén duge khuyén bihich phit tin. Bén canh 6, khong co sv phn 6 13 rang we m&i quan hé gida $6 hOv vi 20 dung xe my, Snh hudng ola yéu 16 King khoting ich di a ee cc phuong dn sé hou xe may efing khong ding kd Do 46, 4 giim thi cée vin 8 do $i dung xe méy nhu On the, TNGT.,.nén huydn hich nguds din si dung xe may hieu qua thay vi cém ho mua xe miy. Diy la vin dé cin luge gibi quyét co chién hive vi két hop nhiéu bin phép theo that gian, TU KHOA: Sé how xe my, de dim hi gia inh, 6: xe chung, mS hin hm chon phi tach ABSTRACT: This study ams at analyzing the determinants of motorcycle ownership by households in Ho Ch Minh city, Viemnam. An attempt to develop disaggregate choice models based on the data collected was also conducted to obtain the marginal effect ofthis determinants. The paper Provides an analysis on how the household characteristics, motocycle attributes, np attributes and vehicle sharng can effect of the motorcycle ‘onnership. The results show that almost all these factors have significant impacts on motorcycle connershio. Especialy, the vehicle sharing affects fon the mortocycle ownership, $0 the development of vehicle sharing is necessary, In adction, there stl no obvious distribution that can be identified for the relationship between motorcycle usage and onnership. Therefore, we should focus on management strategies in reducing motorcycle sage, rather than in redvoing motorcycle onnership immediately KEYWORDS: Motorcycle onnership, household charactensties vehicle sharing, disaggregate choice models 1. BAT VAN BE Hig nay, 91 TP. 5 Chi Min x@ gin méy dang Is [Phuong thuc vin tii chinh ca ngudi din, Tuy nhién, amt 6 vin 8 nhus ket xe, moc 66 bio ve kém, TNGT hay 6 nhiém méi trubng vin Id nang hu aud khong {thé tinh kh dS wot vib sit dyng me may kh tham gia lao thing. BE han ché tc A gia ting rét nhanh ca ogi phuong tin ch nhin ny, bn canh vigc ph tién Ing thing giao thing cong cag, cin phi co mot sytim thu stu sc hon vt vn G 58 hou xe my. Trong khi db, {i TP. HS Chi Minh hign vin chya c6 nhiéu nghién cou chuyén siu vé vin 48 niy. Do 46, nghién cu tip trung xy dng mot minh pha hop nhim phin tch cb yu 16 cong nhu mde 6% dah hubng ce ching d6i voi vike 8 hu ne miy cia cic HD ti TP 6 Chi Minh. Két qu md inh sé due st dung nu mt Su vio quan trong cho phit trién he théng giao théng dé thi trong tveong [bi mgt cich c6¢inh hudng, 2.TONG QUAN CAC NGHIEN CUU TRUGC BAY Vie phin tch hu xe miy co thé dug tin hanh ‘bing cich st: dung cd me hinh phan tach (disaggregate model) vi mé hinh hap nhs (aggregate model). Tuy inhién, cic mo hinh phin tich ngiy cing dugc cho ¥ tg 3 han trong cic nghién cu gin dy do khic pyc spe che diém yu ca ms hinh hop nhSt nud léch $3 8 trong vike hop nhit cic phuang dn hay tinh 33 cong tuyén aia cic bién gid thich (Potogiou and Kanarogiou, 2006). Hign nay, 63 & rt nhigu nghidn cdu chuyén s8u ‘rong viéc lip mé hinh cic yéu 15 tic dng dn vite $8 ‘hou cing nh si dyng 6 t6trén thé git. Tuy nhién, cc ‘aghién cu vé 38 hou ne my vin it hon ding ké. Mot nghién cu dién hinh nh nghién cau cia Leong, L. V. ¥a cic cOng sy (2007) 43 st dung md hinh logit dala chon 46 dénh gid vide $8 hu xe méy 8 bang Penang, Malaysia, qua 46 théy dugc téng thu nhiip hing thing, 6 ne 6 16 58 hu 36 bing Isl xe miy va $6 lugng thanh ike trong gia dinh Ib ic yu 86 dnh hung di ve vik 6 hu xe my tai ly, Hsu TP. va cng sy (2007) cing em xét m6 hinh logit a Iva chon at vic 36 hin xe ‘my v8 xe ho ti DB BSc, DBi Loan, Nohién cou ny cho ‘hog, HGD 50 hu cd xe ho ve may thi 38 cO met mi ‘quan hé thay thé In nhau gida 2 phuang tién nay va by 60 chinh cho vite s8 ha xe fn may cing nhy xe hoi khdng phi ld yu t5 chi phi ma Is 6 cic yeu t6 tin ich, Gin ay, Chieh-Hua Wen va cng su (2012) cing 63 tn ‘anh nghién cu xy dung mét mé hin phin tich ng (ynarnic) 08 xem nit vie i yg vi 58 HOU ems ai 139 KHOA HOC- CONG NGHE ‘DBI Loan. Vin dé 56 hi xe may lb mot phén rét quan tugng eb dug quan tim 051 vt nh ne Sang hit tin hite nay, tuy mhien, tai TP. H6 Chi Minh hitn vin chia c aidu ng cds sb vé vin ny. 3. PHUONG PHAP NGHIEN COU 3.1, Dalijunghién ca i itu st dung trong nghién cits duce My ra tt dun "Nghe cu vé st dung v8 $8 hu xe may tai TP H6 Chi Mink ca Oy ban ATGT Quée ga, iy Id s6 itu hing vii try tgp 1620 HGD nim trong 81. phudng ‘thude 24 quin huyén trén dia bin TP Hé Chi Minh. Vide jphdng vin Ga dugc tién hanh tu théng 12/2015 dén thing 02/2016. Cc miu duck chon ngiu nbn dé dim ‘io tinh dal din cho ton bb 36 HGD sng OTR Hé Chi Minh. Biku tra ndy gém céc ndi dung chinh abu tinh trgng shin cc log phusong ti ca cc HED, dc tinh «Ba Sc lpi xe my 58 hOu vd hinh vi tii ca ngudt din than pbs hi nay. 3.2. M@ hinh sha xe my ite 56 hi xe may HGD dge pin tch diya tren ‘8 inh ring HGD Wve chon s8 hou mot s6 hing xe my $20 cho t6 da hoa ti ich. Tite ich dat dage ki HGD n ga chon sd xe my, ur cho bd im sau U,=V,+6,=0,+PX,+6, Trong dé: U., = Tien ich ma HG n at dg i thou # xe my; X= Vector cic yu 16 dn hung dén vie 58 hu x8 iby da HGD: «Hg 96 oi vot tong ‘phucng n 56 hu cy thé) va fi - Céc tham 36 ube ugg: £,,- Phin 056 ngbu nhién. Mg inh Wa chon 18 r9¢ <6 thé duc bit gun theo cic gid dinh vé phin psi cia phi 53136. Trong 4, nd hin logt da ua chon (INL) md inh duoc st dung nhigu nt, wk sult HGD nha chen 30 ha hung tit dune cho bét & ase rr a [Mé hinh MINL gis dinh ring phén ngbu nhién &, tan theo phn ph6l xc su ec bién ng nh vi Sc Up Gindependently and identically distributed extreme value i cho met ya chon (Train 2003, Louviere & dn 2000). Do 6, met thug tinh cin dug kiém tra trong ‘mb inh my 68 tinh dc lp cha céc hung én king lién quan independence of irrelevant alternatives IA) ‘BE kiém din thud tinh WA, nghién cu si dyng kid in Housman, Md inh logit phiin nd (Nested logit model = NL ‘made! ls m6 hinh duc si dung 46 nd Weng cbc thus tinh WA, cho phép cb sytuong quan gia tin ich cla cic ‘hung &n trong mt t6 chung va diéu chinh cho thich ‘hop sy giéng nhau gida cic chp phuong én trong cing mgt t6. 86th md hinh NL xdc sudt ma mgt phugng dn | diac la chon bat HGB m6 th Ou wt i Su: 140 ree ‘rong 4, thar 36 t6ng hop (logsum) di vos 16 1, pq chi ra mud twxING quan gia tin ch ca cic ‘phucing én trong mot tN, Id mbt tsp hop cdc phuaong 4n trong tm. Gié tf ca them 35 4, phi nbm trong ‘pha vi0-1 8 pha ap wa sti da tig ich, 3.3.Cécbién trong mé hinh Tong nghién «du, bién phy the dugc sii dng 18 56 lugng xe méy 58 hou cia mot HGD. Céc chu hot ido sit cho théy crt it HGD Khong 38 hit xe may hay 36 hou ttn bin xe miy do 46 md hin 8 how xe my xem xét bén phuong dn 0h gla dinh 58 how 1 xe by -HGD 30 hu 4 xe méy) Phung bn sO nik Ye my ‘wong HGD duce chon lim phuong in co 58 Xic sust «ha tng phuang én cba la duge 50 sdnh vt xdc sust ia phusong 4 co x Cc bién 6c lip trong md hin ice yu 88 inh ‘hubng dn 36 lugng xe miy 38 hit HGD. Bau tn ta inhom cic bién v8 di aiém ho gla inh, bao om cic bin téng 36 thin vién (TV) $6 tb em (TRE), 38 thinh vién i lim co thu nip (TVTN), 3 thinh vién Kor hon 60 tu6 (TV6O), 35 thin vin td It c6 Bing Ist ne my (BLUM, 36 thin vien td lo c6 Bing li xe 6 t8(BLOTO), 36 x8 6 19 (0TO) va tng thy nip cic thinh vin ping ‘in (TN) trong HGB. Tha ha bcc bién trong nom asc iene my $0 ho, bao gém thot gan si dung cdc ne ‘may (TGSD} vi chi phi mua xe my (CPMIO. Tip theo, ‘hom dc ifm chuyén di trong HGB gém hal bién tng 6 chuyén ica che thin vide (00) va téng Khodng ich digi ca cic thanh vin (KC). Codi cing la bin di chung xe (DC) xem xét tng 36 chuyén dl chung cia cic thinh vin tong gia din. eo 4.KETOQUANGHIEN COU Tiéahinh so sinh ce mbinh MNL vice me hinh [NL dE dinh 9i8 mu 69 dd lip cia cdc phuamg én 58 ‘du xe may. Xem xét md inh MNL, kt qué ca kg

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