Hoa Sen Group

Cautious Approach As Cycle’s Top Is Not Far Ahead

Initiation Report I April 05, 2017 NEUTRAL – 1% UPSIDE

Hoa Sen Group is a leading steel manufacturer in Vietnam Nguyen Khac Viet Bach, Analyst
bachnkv@tvs.vn
We initiate coverage on Hoa Sen Group, a leading steel manufacturer in
Vietnam as of March 2017. The stock is part of the VN30 Index and had a
12-month price target VND 51,100
stellar performance last fiscal year as well as Q1 result. The overall
consensus has thus been positive and management is forecasting more
good news ahead. We however are cautious on the Company’s Trading Data and Key Metrics
performance based on: Sector Steel

• FY2016’s earning jump reflects a unique combination of 1) sharp Listing From Dec 2008
recovery in the underlying commodity 2) HSG’s cheap inventories – a Price as of 05 Apr 17 50,600
situation which unlikely to repeat this year. 52w High 52,300
• Management’s revenue expectation seems overly aggressive as it 52w Low 22,100
incorporate both aggressive volume growth and selling price increase. Market Capital (VND bn) 10,024
• There is a thin margin of safety in term of valuation Shares Outstanding (mm) 196.5
Total Revenue in VND bn vs Gross Margin Free Float (mm) 106.0
23.2% 15-Day Average Vol (‘000) 1,646.6
19.6% 19.0% 19.0% 18.1%
14.9%
16.6% T12M P/BV (x) 2.41
11.7% T12M P/E (x) 5.47
9.7%
8.0% 6.9%
EV / EBITDA (x) 5.64
21,089 20,966 Dividend Yield (%) 1.98
17,491 18,006
15,005 Net Debt / Equity (x) 1.26
11,257 12,620
Source : HSG, TVS
4,913 5,793
2,836 3,919 1-Year Price Performance (VND bn)
HSG VN Index
2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017E Q1 2016 Q1 2017
160%
Gross Revenue Gross Margin
120%
Source: HSG Annual Reports, TVS’s estimate
80%
Recommendation
40%
We categorize HSG as a cyclical company with the most significant
competitive advantage being economies of scale – a diminishing edge as 0%
HSG has grown to become one of the largest local players. The Company
-40%
has little pricing power and its input cost is highly dependent on cost of
10/4/2016
4/4/2016

7/4/2016

1/4/2017

4/4/2017

importing Hot-rolled-coil steel.

2016 was an extraordinary whereby a combination of: 1) low inventory
accumulated at low price 2) HRC doubled from USD 300 to USD 600 3) Ownership Structure
favorable government policies to limit supply glut from China steel 4) Chairman & related parties
demand pick up from construction sector. We believe 3 out of these 4 Institutional Investors
advantages are absent in 2017. Insiders
Retail Investors
At current price of VND 50,600, HSG is is only 1.0% below our probability 28.4%
weighted value of VND 51,100. We thus assign a NEUTRAL rating to the 35.7%
stock.
0.0%

35.9%
Source: Bloomberg, TVS
Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at <TVSJ> GO
 2 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation
Drop In Commodities Lower Both The Company’s Unit Cost And Selling Price

The most important Unlike its competitor Hoa Phat Group, HSG has to import most of its inputs
commodities affecting HSG’s and thus is more sensitive to change in commodity price
profitability are Iron Ore, Peking Orders of Key Commodities in Steel Manufacturing
Coking Coal and Hot-Rolled- Iron Ore
Coil Steel – all of which (“IO”)
rebound significantly in 2016 Coking Coal
but forecasted to trend down (“CC”)
going forward. Hot-Rolled-Coil
(“HRC”)

There are other key raw materials in steel manufacturing such as limestone or
scrap steel but our studies shows that the above-three have the highest
impact on steel companies’ fundamentals.
Monthly Prices Change (Base Year April 2013)
80.0% • FY2016: IO (+101.5%); CC (+154.0%); HRC (+61.9%)
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
-20.0%
-40.0%
-60.0%
-80.0%
Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17

IO CC HRC
Source: Bloomberg, TVS

Going forward, the trend is not as favorable. Most analysts expect these
commodities’ price to correct over the next 2 years citing higher supply from
Australia miners and a slow down in China construction sector
Price 2017E 2018E

Iron Ore 51.6 46.7

Coking Coal 150 100

Hot-rolled-coil 560 NA

Source: MetalMiner, National Bank of Australia, TVS compile

Historically, as commodities HSG management also forecasted Hot-rolled-coil price to drop as low as USD
price drops, lowering unit 400 in 2017 thus we expect HSG’s selling price will have to drop too and the
cost, so does HSG’s selling Company will have to make up with substantial volume to hit revenue target.
price. However, impact on
Gross Profit Drivers (% Change)
Gross Profit is ambiguous
30.0% 34.4%
without further assessment 26.0%
of HSG’s purchasing pattern 13.9%
17.9%

-5.5% -7.5%
-11.2% -11.0%
-7.2% -10.9% -15.4%
-24.2%

-47.5%
-50.2%
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016
Price/Tons Unit Cost/Tons Spread
Source: Bloomberg, TVS

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 3 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation
HSG’s Purchasing Activity Is An Important Leading Indicator For Future
Performance
HSG accelerates their inventories purchasing in Q2 and Q4 annually, as
management anticipates cyclical surges in demand for Q1 and Q3
HSG’s intra-year purchasing
HSG’s Quarterly Purchasing (VND bn) and as % of Revenue
cycle falls on Q2 (Jan-Mar) 5,829
5,835
and Q4 (Jun-Sep) 4,739
3.5x
4,194 3.0x
3,860 3,880
2,212 3,530 4,957
3,130 2.5x
2,548 2,389 2,082
1,501 2,925 3,031 3,021 2.0x
2,236 2,236 2,491 2,368 2,184
1,697 1,933 1.5x
1.0x
0.5x
0.0x
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016

% Revenue Purchasing
Source: HSG’s Financial Reports, TVS

If HSG can accumulate inventories of HRC at low price, they will set the stage
for the next cycle explosive earning. In our opinion this is due to a double
effect. Low material cost not only allow HRC to buy cheap inventories, it also
incentivize steel demand. As we map the annualized change in HRC price onto
HSG’s purchasing cycle, an interesting pattern revealed.
Monthly Annualized Change in HRC Price

60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
For commodity businesses
0.0%
such as HSG, profits stem
from prudent purchases -20.0%
-40.0%
-60.0%
Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16

Positive Months Negative Months Peak Purchasing

Source: HSG’s Financial Reports, TVS

The current situation resemble late 2009 and there is a high chance that
growth will slow down sharply over the next 2-3 years. Thus we advise
investors to put on their contrarian hat while investing in the sector as HSG’s
share, post purchasing made at low input cost, outperforms significantly.

Period Annualized Monthly Change in HRC HSG’s Share Price Performance

Price (%)
Mar 2010 – Mar 2012 +24.4%/-12.4% -64.1%

Mar 2012 – Sep 2013 -12.4%/+3.7% +303.0%

Sep 2013 – Mar 2015 +3.7%/-21.7% -10.1%

Mar 2015 – Sep 2016 -21.7%/+22.6% +164.7%

Sep 2016 – Feb 2017 +22.6%/+57.1% +16.5%

Source: Bloomberg, TVS

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 4 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation
Revenue Target Inconsistent With Fundamental Led Us To Believe HSG Will
Not Beat This Year Expectation
We suspect HSG is overoptimistic this year as the revenue target implies both
rising volume and appreciating selling price – a combination that is often
Overoptimistic target may
absent in the fiercely competitive steel market.
lead to disappointment and
share price correction in 2017 Revenue per Tons Sold (VND Mils/Tons)
– 2018
22.3
22.0 20.3
18.5
19.0 17.3 17.2
16.1
13.6 14.6
12.2

FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

Planned Pricing Actual Pricing
Source: HSG Financial Report, TVS

The Company’s strategy to keep lowering price and stimulate volume has
limitation. We are also cautious of extrapolating recent result and prefer to
appreciate the nature of commodity market to mean-revert as supply and
demand balanced.

Period % Change in Price/Tons % Change in Volume Sold Price reduction

(1)
Without price decrease we effectiveness
see little reason why HSG FY2013 -16.7% +39.9% 2.39
should achieve strong volume
FY2014 -6.9% +36.9% 5.5
growth
FY2015 -6.7% +24.7% 3.69

FY2016 -15.7% +21.6% 1.37

FY2017(2) +7.4% +19.6% nm

Source: HSG’s Annual Report, TVS (1) %Change in Vol/-%Change in Selling Price (2) Implied from
management’s forecast

Current near all-time high margin is unsustainable in our opinion. Thus as it

revert to long term average, so does HSG’s ROIC
In the long run, we believe HSG can move into higher valued-added product
lines or seek out less competitive market to enter. However this will not be
factored into our 2017 – 2019 expectation.

Long term margin and ROIC EBITA(1) Margin vs ROIC(2) (%)

is trending up but current 18.6% 17.9%
level is unsustainable thus 15.4% 13.8%
will likely revert over the
12.0% 9.5% 11.8%
next 2-3 years 9.9% 10.6%
8.6%
7.4%
6.4%
5.2% 4.9%
3.6% 3.7%

FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016

EBITA Margin ROIC
Source: HSG Financial Report, TVS (1) EBITA is calculated instead of EBITDA since we view depreciation
as real expense for HSG (2) ROIC = (EBITA – Cash tax)/Invested Capital (intangible asset excluded)
Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at <TVSJ> GO
 5 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation
Valuation – Discounted Cash Flow Method
As cyclical companies have volatile earning and margin, subjected the cyclical
swing of each sector, our approach to value these company involve
normalization of free cash flow.
Our DCF model indicates HSG
Our FCFE model includes a 10 years – 3 stages FCFE forecast, controlling for
to be fairly valued at the
the working capital and Net Capex investment the Company has to make to
current price
sustain growth. The model indicate the most probable intrinsic value range
from VND 45,900 – 59,600, with median value at VND 52,900
Summary of our base case model key assumptions:
Metrics Average of 2007 – Average of 2011 – Average of 2017 –
2011 2016 2027
Gross Revenue
In VND Bils 4,002.0 15,005.1 35,384.4
Growth Rate 44.8% 16.4% 10.7%

Operating Cash Flow aft Tax

In VND Bils 378.4 730.2 2,594.8
As % Gross Revenue 10.9% 6.2% 7.6%

Working Capital Investment

In VND Bils (568.7) (1,067.2) (2,097.1)
As % Gross Revenue (14.7%) (5.9%) (5.9%)

Net Capex (465.6) (470.4) (831.9)

In VND Bils (12.3%) (4.0%) (2.7%)
As % Gross Revenue
We balance our assumption
of slower top line growth Risk-Free-Rate 6.6%
with efficiencies gain as less Beta 1.2
investment capital is required
to generate sales Equity Risk Premium 8.5%

Discount Rate 16.8%

Terminal Growth Rate 2.0%

Our model implies a slow deterioration of both sales growth and operating
cash flow margin.
As mentioned above a declining sales growth rate is in line with our view that
HSG’s economies of scale advantage has diminishing return while its pricing
power are often dictated by external factors such as trade policies and
supply/demand dynamic.
DCF model’s sensitivity analysis(1):

Revenue Growth Decay Rate

Both profit margin and ROIC 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% -15% -18% -21%
is far above long term trend -2.0% 81,434 75,351 70,540 66,669 63,504 60,882 58,681 56,815
and is not sustainable
-3.0% 75,061 69,639 65,341 61,875 59,035 56,677 54,695 53,011
Op Cash
Flow -4.0% 69,101 64,288 60,463 57,371 54,833 52,720 50,940 49,425
Margin -5.0% 63,527 59,274 55,886 53,140 50,880 48,995 47,403 46,044
Decay
Rate -6.0% 58,313 54,577 51,591 49,165 47,162 45,487 44,069 42,855
-7.0% 53,436 50,175 47,560 45,429 43,664 42,184 40,926 39,847
-8.0% 48,874 46,049 43,777 41,917 40,372 39,072 37,963 37,010

Source: TVS
Note: (1) The two most impact variables in our model is cash flow margin and revenue growth rate. We
control these variables by applying a constant decay rate. The basic assumptions are that growth will
slow down and margin revert to a trending up long term average during the forecast period

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 6 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation
Valuation – Trading Multiples Method
In addition to DCF model, we also employ historical and comparable multiples
method to account for a wider range of outcome
Historical trading multiple range:
HSG seems underpriced P/E Trading Range
15.0x
relative to its historical P/E 13.0x
and EV/EBIT band… 11.0x
9.0x
7.0x
5.0x
3.0x
1/2/2013 1/2/2014 1/2/2015 1/2/2016 1/2/2017
TTM P/E -1Std 3 Yr Average +1Std

…but this is likely due to a EV/EBIT Trading Range

15.0x
surprisingly strong 2016 13.0x
pushing up earnings rather 11.0x
than a re-rating of multiple 9.0x
7.0x
5.0x
3.0x
1/2/2013 1/2/2014 1/2/2015 1/2/2016 1/2/2017
TTM EV/EBIT -1Std 3 Yr Average +1Std
Source: Bloomberg, TVS

Comparable peers group – summary of key operating metrics:

Regional peers are trading Metrics HSG’s
Local Peers’ Regional Peers’
within too wide a range, Median Median
Avg 5 Yrs Sales Growth 17.3% 7.7% 1.3%
Growth

most likely due to differences

Avg 5 Yrs EPS Growth 40.2% 85.5% 52.0%
in market index trading levels TTM Sales Growth 2.4% 8.0% -0.3%
and other country specific
Gross Margin 23.3% 9.5% 9.8%
Margin

factors… EBITA Margin 11.9% 7.3% 4.2%

Net Margin 8.9% 4.8% 1.8%
Profitability

ROE 41.0% 41.1% 2.7%

ROIC 16.8% 11.7% 4.1%
Dividend Yield 5.5% 3.5% 1.4%

Net Debt/Equity 1.3x 0.9x 1.5x

Credit

Net Debt/EBIT 2.4x 4.7x 8.6x

EBIT/Interest Exp 10.2x 2.7x 1.9x

P/E 1.3x 0.9x 1.5x

Valuation

P/B 2.4x 4.7x 8.6x

EV/Sales 10.2x 2.7x 1.9x
EV/EBITDA 5.5x 5.8x 8.2x
EV/EBITA 6.9x 6.8x 15.1x
Source: Bloomberg, TVS

…thus we prefer local peers
in making comparison and
their multiples implies that
HSG is fairly priced
We select peer companies with comparable revenue size with HSG both within
Vietnam and APAC region. As per the comparable table above, there are two
observations to be made: (1) HSG enjoyed an above average growth rate,
margin and profitability relative to peers (2) The Company achieving this with
relative modest leverage.
We believe HSG should generally trade at a premium to its peers group.
However, the drawback is that the commodity cycle affects all companies in
the sector and every companies’ multiples will compress at the same time.
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 7 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation
Valuation Summary & Conclusion
Valuation Summary(1)

FCFE
We recommend a Hold rating
for HSG stock with a target
price of VND 51,100, implying Historical P/E
a +1.0% return, with dividend Historical EV/EBIT
unaccounted for
LP P/E
LP P/B
LP EV/EBITA
LP EV/Sales
LP EV/EBITDA

RP P/E
RP P/B
RP EV/EBITA
RP EV/Sales
RP EV/EBITDA

- 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000

Min Point 25th Point Mid Point 75th Point Max Point

Combining various valuation methods and parameters we arrive at 3

scenarios:

Scenarios Target Price Implied Return Probability Weight

Bear Case VND 42,300 -16.4% 30%

Base Case VND 50,600 +0.0% 50%

Bull Case VND 65,600 +29.6% 20%

Aggregate VND 51,100 +1.0% 100%

Source: TVS’s Estimate

We thus recommend a NEUTRAL rating for HSG’s stock as of April 5th 2017
Key risks to valuation models
- Upward revision can be due to (1) Strong demand from construction sector
persist, leading to higher volume growth (2) The recent anti-dumping on
China imported steel allow HSG to capture more market shares
- Downward revision can be due to (1) Faster margin compressed from a
commodity crash (2) Higher interest rate pushing up HSG’s interest
expense while slowing down demand at the same time

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 8 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation
Income Statement (VND bn) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017 Balance Sheet (VND bn) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017
Net sales 14,990 17,468 17,894 5,767 Cash and equivalents 156 277 577 228
Cost of sales 13,240 14,869 13,717 4,720 Financial investment - - - -
Gross profit 1,750 2,599 4,176 1,047 Accounts receivable 1,259 1,110 1,152 937
Selling expenses 693 869 1,197 314 Inventory 4,747 3,544 4,822 4,968
General administration expenses 327 447 756 195 Prepaid expenses, other CA 237 239 507 867
Other operating income/(expenses) (1) - - - Total current assets 6,400 5,169 7,057 7,956
EBITDA 1,039 1,704 2,685 693 Property and equipment
Depreciation & Amortization 354 482 549 156 At cost 4,854 5,642 7,019 6,417
EBIT 685 1,223 2,136 537 Less accumulated depreciation (1,433) (1,902) (2,428) (2,439)
Net interest income/(expenses) - - - - Net property and equipment 3,421 3,740 4,591 3,978
Net investment income - - - - Net intangibles 0 0 0 400
Others (recurring) 10 3 (12) - Total investments 46 38 26 73
Pretax Profit 523 832 1,907 515 Other long - term assets 339 493 636 1,550
Income tax 113 179 403 75 Total Assets 10,206 9,441 12,310 13,957
Tax rate (%) 22 22 21 15 Account Payables 1,886 626 1,620 707
Minorities - - 3 0 Short-term debt 4,545 4,521 4,366 6,267
Net Income 410 653 1,504 440 Other current liabilities 436 408 771 718
EPS (basic VND, reported) 2,185 3,309 7,350 2,239 Total Current Liabilities 6,867 5,555 6,757 7,692
Weighted shares outstanding (mn) 188 189 196 196 Long-term debt 959 975 1,423 1,662
Other long-term liabilities - - 3 4
Common dividends declared (192) (144) (327) nm Total long-term liabilities 959 975 1,426 1,666
DPS (VND) 487 1,583 5,094 nm
Dividend Payout ratio (%) 46.8 22.1 21.7 nm Stockholders' equity 2,379 2,911 4,127 4,598
Dividend cover (x) 4.5x 2.1x 2.4x nm Common Equity 1,008 1,008 1,965 1,965
Treasury shares (81) (52) - -
Growth and Margin (%) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017 Capital surplus 452 487 552 552
Sales Growth (%) 27.5 16.5 2.4 47.4 Retained earnings 979 1,453 1,603 2,043
EBITDA Growth (%) (9.2) 64.0 57.5 61.4 Budget sources and other funds 22 15 7 37
EBIT Growth (%) (20.8) 78.4 74.7 79.3 Minority interest - - 3 -
Net Income Growth (%) (29.4) 59.1 130.4 135.0 Total liabilities and equity 10,206 9,441 12,310 13,957
EPS Growth (%) (28.3) 51.5 122.1 135.0 Capitalized leases 6 5 4 -
Gross Margin (%) 11.7 14.9 23.3 18.1 Capital employed 3,339 3,886 5,553 12,299
EBITDA Margin (%) 6.9 9.8 15.0 12.0
EBIT Margin (%) 4.6 7.0 11.9 9.3 Ratios (%) 2014A 2015A 2016A TTM
Net Income Margin (%) 2.7 3.6 8.1 7.6 ROE (%) 17.9 24.7 42.7 43.9
ROA (%) 4.7 6.6 13.8 15.5
Cash flow Statements (VNDbn) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017 ROIC (%) 13.4 18.1 31.9 19.1
Net Income 523 832 1,907 440 Inventory days 107.3 102.0 111.6 70.8
Adjustments for: Receivable days 24.3 24.8 23.1 11.5
Depreciation and amortization 354 482 549 156 Payable days 44.3 30.9 30.0 23.7
Change in inventories (1,727) 1,191 (1,279) (1,107) Asset Turnover (x) 1.7x 1.8x 1.6x 1.7x
Change in trade receivables (501) 70 (275) (146) Net debt/equity (x) 2.3x 1.8x 1.3x 1.7x
Change in trade payables 554 (1,092) 1,252 (886) Interest cover - EBIT(x) 0.2x 0.1x 0.1x 10.9x
Other operating cash flow (118) (203) (512) (1,231)
Cash flow from operations (915) 1,280 1,641 (1633) Valuation (Multiples) 2014A 2015A 2016A TTM
Net Capital expenditure (1,193) (735) (1,307) (806) EV / EBITDA (x) 9.4x 5.4x 5.0x 4.7x
Acquisition - - - - P/E (x) 10.3x 6.3x 5.7x 5.7x
Divestures - - - - Dividend Yield (%) 2.2 7.6 9.8 2.0
Other investments, net 2 4 5 (50) P/B (x) 1.8x 1.4x 2.0x 2.2x
Cash flow from investing (1,164) (707) (1,293) (856)
Equity issued (0) 65 116 -
Net borrowings 2,253 (363) 163 2,159
Dividends to shareholders (192) (144) (327) (0)
Cash flow from financing 2,060 (443) (48) 2,140

Net cash flow (21) 121 300 (349)

Opening cash 177 156 277 577 Notes: CA = current assets; CL = current liabilities; PP&E = Property and
Equipment at Cost
Closing cash 156 277 577 228 Source: Thomson Reuters data, Thien Viet Securities model

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 9 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation

DISCLAIMER
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I, Nguyen Khac Viet Bach, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or
will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

RATING and VIEWS

Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) – Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sell based on his own views. Being
assigned a Buy or Sell is determined by as total stock’s return (TSR) potential that represents the price
differentials between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon plus
expected current dividend yield. Any stock not assigned as Buy or Sell is deemed Neutral.
TVS Investment Research: Equity Rating Definitions
12-month rating Definition
Buy Total Stock’s Return > 15%
Neutral Total Stock’s Return between (-15%) and 15%
Sell Total Stock Return < (-15%)
Short-term rating Definition
Buy Stock price expected to rise within three-month because of a specific catalyst or event
Sell Stock price expected to fall within three-month because of a specific catalyst or event
The investment rating and target price, if any, suspended as there is not a sufficient fundamental
Not-rated
basis for determining an investment rating or target.

DISCLAIMER
Copyright©2017 by Thien Viet Securities Joint-Stock Company (TVS). ALL RIGHT RESERVED. This research
report is prepared for the use of TVS clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed as a
whole or partially in any form or manner without the prior written consent of TVS. The information herein is
obtained from various sources and TVS does not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any
opinions expressed in this publication constitutes a buy or sell recommendation on any securities or
investment. TVS therefore does not take any responsibilities for any investor’s decisions.

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