Quantitative Aptitude for Rural Management

Group Assignment – 1

Analysis: Is India truly at least a regional superpower in the Indian

Subcontinent?

Faculty
Prof. Anand Venkatesh

Case Analysis Prepared By:

Angshuman Kakoty (P38007)
Bismoi Ballav Saikia (P38017)
Meet H Sharma (P38032)
Does India have the Potential to become Regional Super Power in the Indian Subcontinent?

What makes a country Super power?

Superpower is a term used to describe a state with a dominant position, which is characterized by
its extensive ability to exert influence or project power on a global scale. This is done through
the combined-means of Development, military, energy, natural resources, economic strength
and many more.

Countries in the Indian Subcontinent.

Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Parameters for comparison

We have classified the parameters considered into various categories

Development Military Economy Energy

Human Development Military expenditure- GDP & GDP Per capita Total Energy
Index (HDI) as % of GDP Production
Median Age Total armed forced Global Competitiveness Total Energy
Population Personnel Index Consumption
Employment - - -
opportunities for
Youth.
Figure 1Parameters Considered

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Human Development Index (HDI)
Human Development Index is an index used to rank countries by level of "human development".
It contains three dimensions:
 health level-measured by life expectancy at birth
 educational level - mean years of education among the adult population
 Living standard- Gross National Income (GNI) per capita

HDI Index
0.8
0.7
0.6
HDI Value

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year

Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

Figure 2 HDI index value for Indian Subcontinent countries for various years

The above graph clearly suggests that before 2015, India was behind from at least 3 countries while
in 2015, it came at 3rd position after Sri Lanka and Maldives. The rate of increase in HDI for India
is significant enough for being considered as being a superpower in the coming years.

2
We compared the significant growth in the HDI index ranking for India from 2013 to 2015.Below
is the Line graph comparing HDI ranks for various countries in 2013 and 2015

HDI Rank 2013 & 2015

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

HDI Rank(2013) HDI Rank(2015)

Figure 3 HDI Rank comparison of Indian Subcontinent countries for 2013 & 2015

We can imply from the above graph that, India has improved from being 3rd after Pakistan and Sri
lanka to be 2nd in 2015 rankings.

Let us analyze one important parameter for HDI, Expected years of schooling (years).We can
observe that India lies 3rd from top succeeded by Maldives and Sri lanka.

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 EXPECTED YEARS OF SCHOOLING (YEARS)

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12.7

12.5
11.7

10.2

8.1
SRI LANKA MALDIVES INDIA BHUTAN BANGLADESH PAKISTAN

Figure 4 Expected years of schooling for various countries

After analyzing the above graphs, we can infer that the growth story of HDI of India and Maldives
over the years till 2015 has very much been the same with marginal differences. So, Maldives has
always been competing against India. The only country which has come close to both is Sri Lanka.
In fact, in 2015, its index and rank has shown a drastic improvement surpassing all the other sub-
continental countries.
So, looking at the above data and graphs, we can say that there are 3 countries in
the top league in terms of HDI and HDI rank- India, Sri Lanka and Maldives.

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Population
It is not the total population but the age distribution of the population that has an impact on
economic growth. For any country to develop, its median population should be such that it is able
to contribute to the labor work force. We projected the median ages for Indian Subcontinent till
2050.

Median Age Projection till 2050

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Bangaladesh Bhutan India Maldives

Nepal Pakistan SriLanka

Figure 5 Median Age Projection for Indian Sub-continent countries

From the above graph, we can infer that

o India’s median age would go to 38.441 in 2050, from 26.35 in 2015
o Similar trends are seen for other Indian Sub-continent countries
Let’s have the count of Population aged from 20-39 for all the Indian Subcontinent countries.
For simplicity, we scaled down the values for 20-39 years, total number of population by 10,000s.
Below is the table for Indian Subcontinent countries.
Here, using this data we want to Project the population for Indian Sub-continent countries whose
age is between 20-39 years. We used the scatter plot to compare the Projection of number of people
over various years from 2015 till 2015.

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 Projection of Median Age Population
60000
Scale: 1 unit = 10,000
50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Bangaladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan SriLanka

Figure 6 Projection of Median Age (20-39 years) Population

Few conclusions from the above scattered plot:-

o India shows promise in terms of the Population range which represents the labor force of
any nation.
o But what if India is unable to provide employment to this huge labor force? It can go against
the Nation.

In order to understand the employment generation capability of India to cater its huge
population, we got the data for “% of youth in working age group” to total population and
“% of working population” to total population.

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 Comparison between Youth and Working Population as % of
total Population
80

60

40

20

0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Youth working age group Working Population

Figure 7 % of Youth and % of Working Population to total Population

The graph reveals that the gap between the Youth and working widens as the time passes. The
trend is unabated since 1975 and would be highest in 2040. This shows that India will be
incapable in including the Youth population in the working population of the whole country.

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Global Competitiveness Index
The Global Competitiveness Report (GCR) is a yearly report published by the World Economic
Forum. Since 2004, the Global Competitiveness Report ranks countries based on the Global
Competitiveness Index, developed by Xavier Sala-i-Martin and Elsa V. Artadi. The Global
Competitiveness Index measures the set of institutions, policies, and factors that set the sustainable
current and medium-term levels of economic prosperity.
Global Competitiveness Report provides an overview of competitive performance of around 140
economies and ranks (indexes) each country on the basis of its global competitiveness on annual
basis. Individual rank (index) of each country is known as Global Competitive Index. The
assessment of global competitiveness is done on the basis of 3 main categories – Basic
Requirements category, Efficiency Enhancers category and Innovation & Sophistication category
out of which Basic Requirements consists of four pillars, Efficiency Enhancers consists of six
pillars and Innovation & Sophistication consists of two pillars .Each of these pillars consists of
sub-indexes on the basis of which ranking of each country is done. On trend analysis of Global
Competitiveness of India, it is found that current trends in innovation growth in India are imminent
but India is lagging behind in Basic Requirements and Efficiency Enhancers. However, India is
currently the highest ranked nation among the subcontinent nations.

As can be seen in Figure 1, India‘s GCI (Global competitiveness Index) ranking is continuously
showing downward trend from 43rd rank (2006-07) to 50th rank(2008-09) ,slight jump in ranking
to 49th rank in 2009-10 and then continuous downward trend from 49th rank(2009-10) to 71st
rank(2014-15). In 2015-16 , India ranks 55 moving ahead by 16 points as compared to 71st attained
in 2014-15 and in 2016-17, India was ranked 39th which is the best rank ever held by any nation
in the Indian Subcontinent. No member of the subcontinent features in top 50 ranking of GCI
except India. India is leading among subcontinent nations followed by Sri Lanka (71st), Nepal
(98th), Bhutan (97th), Bangladesh (106th) and Pakistan (122nd). The rise in GCI ranking of India
can be attributed to recent economic recovery, improvement in macroeconomic environment and
slight improvement in infrastructures and quality of India’s institutions.

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 GCI Rankings 2004-2017
140

120

100
Bangladesh
80 Bhutan
India
60 Maldives
Nepal
40 Pakistan
Sri Lanka
20

Figure 8 GCI rankings of the seven nations since 2004.

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Gross Domestic Product
GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product
taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without
making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural
resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars. It is calculated without making deductions for
depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in
current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single
year official exchange rates. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect
the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor
is used. As can be seen in figure 2, India has the highest GDP among the subcontinent nations with
Bhutan having the lowest GDP closely followed by Maldives.

(Amount in $ Billions)

Gross Domestic Product

2,500.00

2,000.00

Bangladesh
1,500.00 Bhutan
India
Sri Lanka
1,000.00 Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
500.00

-
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

Figure 9 GDP in $ Billions from 1990-2017

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However, if we compare the GDP per capita among the nations, we can observe a stark contrast
between the nations. GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population.
Maldives has the highest GDP per capita and India is placed only at the 4th position preceded by
Bhutan and Sri Lanka. Nepal has the lowest GDP per capita. It can be seen in figure 4.

GDP Per Capita

10000

9000

8000

7000
Bangladesh
6000 Bhutan
India
5000
Sri Lanka
4000 Maldives
Nepal
3000
Pakistan
2000

1000

0
1996

2005
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

Figure 10 GDP per capita from 1990-2017

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INFANT MORTALITY RATE

The health of the overall population is an important factor that is to be considered in order to know
whether a country is a regional power or not. Infant mortality rate (IMR) plays an important role
in understanding the population health. IMR is an indicator of health for whole population,
reflecting the intuition that structural factors affecting the health of entire population have an
impact on the mortality rate of infants.
Infant Mortality Rate is the probability that a child born in a specific year will die before reaching
the age of one, if subject to current age-specific mortality rates. It is expressed as a rate per 1,000
live births.

Infant Mortality Rate

100.00
90.00
80.00
Bangladesh
70.00
Bhutan
60.00
India
50.00
Maldives
40.00
30.00 Nepal

20.00 Pakistan

10.00 Sri Lanka

0.00

Figure 11 Infant Mortality Rate

As seen in Figure, all the countries in the Indian sub-continent have seen a decrease in infant
mortality rate over the years, except for Sri Lanka in 2004. Pakistan has the highest IMR followed
by India. However, India’s high IMR is attributable to its huge population. Although the IMR is
high is Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan, it is less as compared to Pakistan and India. Maldives and
Sri Lanka have a relatively low IMR. The high IMR in India calls for more attention in the health
sector and the public health policies.

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MILITARY

Military strength, in terms of total military personnel, training and techniques, weapons and tactics,
military expenditure, military aid and influence, is a pre-requisite for a nation to become a super
or regional power. It is not only essential for national security but also for an international
influence.

MILITARY EXPENDITURE
Military expenditure includes all current and capital expenditures on the armed forces, including
peacekeeping forces; defense ministries and other government agencies engaged in defense
projects; paramilitary forces, military operations; and military space activities. Such expenditures
include military and civil personnel, including retirement pensions of military personnel and
social services for personnel; operation and maintenance; procurement; military research and
development; and military aid. National defense is an important function of government and
security from external threats that contributes to economic development. The military
expenditure is in terms of percentage of GDP.

MILITARY EXPENDITURE(% of GDP)

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5 Bangladesh
India
4
Nepal
3 Pakistan
Sri Lanka
2

0
19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

Figure 12 Military Expenditure (% of GDP)

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The military expenditure in terms of percentage of GDP is highest in Pakistan, followed by Sri
Lanka and India respectively. It is comparatively lower in Bangladesh and Nepal. However, a
high military expenditure suggests lesser expenditure on other functions. Data on military
expenditures as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) are a rough indicator of the portion of
national resources used for military activities and of the burden on the economy.
Note: Bhutan and Maldives are not taken into consideration because of very small military unit.

TOTAL ARMED FORCES PERSONNEL

The size of the military is indicated by the total armed forces personnel of the nation. It is the most
important indicator of military strength of a nation which contribute to national security and
military influence. Thus, it is considered as a significant parameter for a nation to qualify as a
regional power. Armed forces personnel include active duty military personnel and paramilitary
forces.

Total Armed Forces Personnel

3500000

3000000
Bangladesh
2500000 Bhutan
2000000 India

1500000 Maldives
Nepal
1000000
Pakistan
500000
Sri Lanka
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Figure 13 Total Armed Forces Personnel

As seen in Figure India has the largest number of armed forces personnel a strength of 2,582,000
in 2008, which is significantly larger than that of all other nations in the Indian sub-continent. The
huge number justifies India’s military influence in the form of military aid, joint military
operations and training. In respect of military influence, Pakistan also has a significant influence
in the sub-continent. Figure shows that the rest of the countries have a low number of military
personnel. The total armed forces personnel of Maldives and Bhutan stand at a paltry 5000 and
6000 respectively. Thus, India’s military strength provides it a favorable position in the sub-
continent.

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ENERGY

Energy is directly linked to well-being and prosperity across the globe. Meeting the growing
demand for energy in a safe and environmentally responsible manner is a key challenge.
The production and use of energy are vital to the economies of all countries. The mix of energy
sources has profound consequences for environmental quality, efficiency, sustainable
development and growth of a country. Energy sufficiency is one of the most important indicators
of prosperity.
The main sources of energy in the Indian sub-continent countries are as follows:
Bangladesh: Bangladesh has small reserves of oil and coal, but very large natural gas resources.
Commercial energy consumption is mostly natural gas (around 66%), followed by oil, hydropower
and coal.
Bhutan: Being a carbon-neutral state, Bhutan imports major proportion of electricity from India.
Hydropower meets the rest of the energy requirements.
India: The primary sources of energy in India are crude oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower and
nuclear energy. The huge reserves of natural resources play an important role in India’s energy
requirements.
Maldives: Maldives primarily depends on renewable sources of energy. Solar, wind and biogas
are the sources of energy for Maldives.
Nepal: Biomass is the primary source of energy in Nepal. Other sources of energy include
hydropower, coal, solar and wind.
Pakistan: Pakistan depends primarily on natural gas, petroleum and coal for meeting its energy
requirements. Hydropower and nuclear power are also important sources of energy for Pakistan.
Sri Lanka: Hydropower, wind power and natural gas are major sources of energy in Sri Lanka.
Solar is also an important power source in rural parts of Sri Lanka.

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TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION
The total electricity generation of a country is its total production of electricity by means of
renewable and nonrenewable sources of energy measured in kilowatt-hours (KWH). It roughly
indicates the availability of sources of energy for generation of electricity.

900.00
Total Electricity Generation (KWH in

800.00
700.00
600.00
billions)

500.00 Bangladesh
400.00 India
300.00 Pakistan

200.00
100.00
0.00
1991

1995

1999

2003

2007
1992
1993
1994

1996
1997
1998

2000
2001
2002

2004
2005
2006

2008
Figure 14 Total Electricity Generation

Figure shows the total electricity generation of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. It is explicit that
the electricity generation of India is, to a great extent, greater than that of Pakistan and Bangladesh
over the years. This indicates the availability of energy sources that contribute to electricity
production, which is important for a nation to qualify for a regional power.
Note: Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives are not taken into consideration as the electricity
generation in those countries is very low.
TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
The total electricity consumption of countries over the years shows the energy requirements in the
countries. Total electricity consumption is calculated by multiplying the electricity consumption
per capita and the population of the country. The unit of electricity consumption is in kilowatt-
hour.

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 Total Electricity Consumption (KWH in billions)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

Figure 15 Total Electricity Consumption

From Figure it is seen that the total electricity consumption of all the countries have been
increasing over the years. Electricity consumption in India is so large that it is more than the
combined electricity consumption of all other Indian sub-continent countries. India has so far been
able to meet its huge energy requirements though its large electricity production. Countries like
Nepal with greater electricity consumption than production import from India. The electricity
consumption in Bangladesh and Pakistan is decent as compared to its production. Thus, India is
considerably sufficient in energy and enjoys an advantage over the other Indian sub-continent
countries because of its ample availability of resources.
Note: The total electricity consumption of Maldives and Bhutan has not been considered as it is
very low.

References
www.worldbank.org
www.gapminder.org
www.weforum.org

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