Investing Framework : : Learning from the ae) i ai ENaC seiner SET) STMT rah bd“You have to learn all the big ideasin the key disciplines in a way that theyre in a Mental Latticeworkin chai your head and you automatically use them for the rest of your life” counnmeeaes Stet = Charlie Munger nea cone (Sa (aecer CSomrseranarmne seem“The stock marketis the story of cycles and human behaviour that is responsible for rave over-reactions in both: ctions” - Seth Klarman + Demand and Supply = Competition Strategy Business _*\Obsolescence + Broader Economy Herding 7 * GOP Growth P. * Favourable Policy mix = Money Supply + Trade Deficit * Velocity of Money * Tax Rates * Inflation/Defation * Government Spending * Capital Flows * Leverage in the System Man-made phenomena, liquidity dependent, inherently interconnected and a complex adaptive system“What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end” - Warren Buffett ‘The Three Stages of a Bull Market: Investor Psychology Cycle + Whena few people begintofeel things will getbetter + When most peoplerecognizethat Improverentis underway + When everyone thinksthings will get betterforever The Three Stages of a Bear Market: + Whena few peoplerealizethatthings ‘areoverpricedand riding for afall + When most peopleseethata dectineis takingplace + When everyone thinksthings will get worse forever BaeA Zebra in Lion Country ~ Ralph Wanger FM Above-average performance Zebra Fresh Grass Zebra's Place --» Relation to Herd If (Safe). Outside Herd = Fresh Grass, Middle =Trampled Grass Risk=Dislike FM-fired Zebra Eaten by Lion EMoveinherds Lookalike GStickclose together Outside Herd = Aggressive. Eat Wel Middle of Herd Eatless but not g“Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally” - John Maynard Keynes FM-/= Outside Zebra (Career Risk) Seek safety in conventional ideas FM-Center of Herd (Optimal Placement) ‘Avoid Success unconventionally Buys Popular Stocks ~ Faultless You cannot be fired for buying Johnson and Johnson “Men. it ishas been well said. think in herds. Iwill be seen that they go mad inherds. while they only recover their senses slowly cone by one” ~Charles Mackay RALPH WANG!Investors Could Ride the Wave to Riches or Experience a Hard Landing ‘There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune” - Julius Caesar Experience tends to confirm a long held notion that being prepared, on a few occasions in a lifetime, to act promptly in scale. in doing some simple and logical thing, will often dramatically improve the financial results of that lifetime” - Charlie Munger ‘Cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless” - Warren Buffett “Every great crisis reveals the excessive speculations... which commonly indeed had not begun. or had not carried very far those speculations till they were tempted by the daily rise of price and the surrounding fever”- Walter BagehotBulls Make Money, Bears Make Money. Pigs? They Get Slaughtered 7 George Soros JesseLivermore Tudor Jones John Paulson Michael Burry BrokeTheBank Shortedthe Panic Predicted Used credit defaultswaps Shortedthe of England, 1992 of1907 BlackMonday.1987 against Subprime.2007 Subprime Crisis. 2008 i HenryHoare ——StanleyDruckenmiller_ MichaelSteinhardt John Templeton kyleBass Successfullynavigated Broke pound.Made1B$ Bought Treasurybonds Bought the Dregs ofthe Successfully Navigated SouthSeaBubble.1720 —_inoneday, 1992 asYieldspiked.1981 StockMarket.1939 The Subprime CrisisAsian Financial Criss 1998 Telephone Invented st0s ity Finy 1607 Tulip Mania "e20 ae Holland Petroleum, Emerging Markets 1930 The Great Depression Railways ‘US. 1998 Hedge Fund LTeM crsie Canale UK var Jn Bond fis Crash Raiways issesipp Invented 1086 Firetcar ce Wore wide Web tamTulip Bubble 10 GOUDA TULIP BULBS Dec. 1, 1634 to Feb. 5, 1637 ‘Selected Prices in Guilders/Aas Log Seale (© 1999 Etiott Wave International 7604 7635 1636 1637 Source Chapter Maca Wi, etuitebeblecom Two Lasts of Wheat Abst Four Lasts of Rye 5581 Four Fat Oxen eof Eight Fat Swine 2401 | Twelve Fat Sheep 120f Two Hogsheads of Wine Tot Four Turns of Beer at TwoTons of Butter 192 “1000 lbs of Cheese 120 AComplete Bed oof ASuit of Clothes sot g Cup 60F etc ne tr ovr ge netuecomMooe/ ap Fete B1852Mississippi Bubble Shares in John Law's Mississippi Company (1719-1720) THE MISSISSIPPI BUBBLE: A MEMOIR OF JOHN LAW ADO THERSouth Sea Bubble Bie “Ican calculate the movement of the stars. but not the madness of men” - Isaac Newton South Sea Stock (December 1718 - December 172!) Newton's friends get rich Newton exits happy. a exits broke 800) Newton invests a bit,Charles Mackay's Story : Another Example of a Renowned Expert on Bubbles Who Decided that “This Time is Different” Index of British Railway share price Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions ; ERR CSS ec TUoe COL To [a = id i Charles Mackay ‘Aninvestigationet Mackay snewspaper writings shows hat he ‘waroneofthemost ardentcheerleadersforthe = oray an (esos :Mediatranded away companies asfoolprocfivesimenia | thegreatestandmastdestructvetthessepisedesctestreme investor exuberance 1844-1846: Consiructedapprox. 85% ofentireexistingmodernraliwaynetwork ‘Source: Andrew Otyzho,thebubbchubble comThe Great Depression : Policy Errors Exacerbated Pain and Caused Depression and Be FLAME a Generation of Lost Decades oe World Payments all U.S, production a ~ Allies cannot vs. ited States, gave little or os Seeman war a - RNS Faroe. Brace WALL ST. 1 ST. IN PANIC AS STOCKS CRA HBubble of Nifty Fifty Stocks of 1970 Ts 34. Congo) Sy eee Ament Valuation of Equally-Weighted Nitty Fity Prtftio Se Eee Relativetothe SEP 500: Dec 970 through Aug 1998 |_—sieitoes_eev_ize_ag_ DateStarted: 1/11/1973 DateEnded: 12/06/1974 TotalDays: 694 Starting DJIA: 1051.70 Ending DJIA: 577.60 company Sinbol_stringP/E _10-WAnnualzedRetun eben McD 187 1758 eleven a ragonees E88 520% oe Wattosney os as aa sly uy am% Nifty 50 Stocks ‘Secwity Price Earnings mute Price Earings Multa 7 1980 Say 2 Parola 0 6 eDonte’s a ° fr Favors a 2 Malt Dien 1% " Hewett Packard 6 6 TotalLoss: -45.1% ‘Source :Forbes 177 Revise NityFaty EJapan Asset Bubble Atone stage the land surrounding the Imperiat Palace in Tokyo was estimated tobe worth more than the whole of California. Land price fluctuations % | ['91 Land price bubble bursts 404 [s Three major metropolitan areas 2.0% KYODO GRAPHIC!(1998) Russian Crisis Led to the LTCM Saga : “It Ain't Over Till It's Over” - YogiBerra way aM - 2000::Same founder | | 2010:Started 3Firm JM founded JW ‘Advisors, Started 3 months after shutting down operations of JWM 1998 May (-6%) ‘ne 09 ‘ prc sep 20198: ty cata as rom fon Paste cooms” Den overs. a eect fa i ‘am suber 90% omer f 2007: ha peatins || Pau ie T Leverage Sapa NN rns Ce¥inds down aor 44H) |) csoee 1994: Founded with | | tor 250MS and recapitalize a ets fund | Industry Ratio "Sininiial assets | | with 4B$, LTeMrefuses oo a Myron Scholes and Robert Merton won The Nobel prize for their theory - How Options are Priced in Efficient Market John Meriwether BOW) Founder of crc Ai IMWand JM Advisors =Opposite Views on The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) Robert Merton and Myron Scholes won The Nobel Prize for a new method to determine the value of Derivatives. The study is based on the efficient market theory. Their methodology has paved the way for economic valuations in many areas. It has also generated new types of financial instruments and facilitated more efficient risk managementin society. Unfortunately they don’t take the Nobel Prize back! Cee ey Poe nen Prats eee Ce Te Eee ne eee The Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller says that the long term expansion in the economy. housing and stock markets, combined with continued low interest rates. could mean the US. is due for a recession. But, human behavior makes it very difficult tomakesuch predictions.Models Based on Bell Curve Distributions Massively Underestimate the Probability Bae and Impact of Outlier Events 18D levery 6Years 28D levery 44 Years 38D levery 740 Years 4SD_ every 31.575Years Rolling Sumot 4+ StandardDeviation Eventsin the SEP 500 Since1951(15) ao ~ toyMovingAverage 20 Swrce wipes, Rsearehgatnet leerDoes The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) Work? rave The Prima Facie Case Against EMHis the Existence of Bubbles eee aa za ba aa == crates we a= ee ee E om Sage aerinarimaion Ey vee og 7ho/2008 Bil Oncein 5.488 years FPO leaner || on et ecco secre Tomy || BER | eager) nee ‘apo72008 108 onceins03033.440,72144.000,000.000 cra! Fonseca i ret r pre ‘omcos: | Fehr es aa en tis Matos i zapo/2008 —_-586 Onceint7.103 covennes Ata —— {0 Dali Returestrom ovovietsv/z008 || = | nea a anni OREN aOR Deviation computed over the whole sample (St Dev.=1032%). — } “on Fe ee pce practice. BULinprectle, theres = oq! Berra Ses ean oa era 10 wea SmurceSeteSreom capt Martel ek seersDot-Com Bubble of 2000s A a aa a \ 2 1 . + s. us » am = i es aye 7 t * » ' 7 \ * eannon's cover What's Wrong, Warren? Berkshire's down for the year, but don't count it out, By ByAnchow Buy + Updated Doc. 77,1999 1201am ET The Rise and Fall etn amps ne i ss. 2000 oun ae Sans ne iy is1087 500 an bebe (Cotmenatis0 Dieta mtertin ey 8 Skee eeecon Dente advan Batata cn sot oo essay “ipocon focussed oan ‘ot e106 Ronee 200 as ie pert fou sory 2s egatecon's a tesco Neem, SBOm M0 vant ro pomat2g8 eon ws ti ewe Bae Sap. 208 fe Intanone ort 8m Steet oP (eres tt comin a i CeThe 2008 U.S. Subprime Crisis Led to The International Banking Crisis Subprime origage Grgiations in 2006. $500 Bot subprime loans were originated, most of which were scrutinized - Dow Jones ing aecountes for 23 8x0" all mortgage erginaions Sa eTimeline + Beginning in 1928. stock-market speculation became anational pastime in the USA + Prices increased 10 to15 percent a day + Afuture of endless prosperity was taken for granted + The Hawley-Smoot Tariff was the highest tariff in U.S.History and itis widely agreed that itaggravated the Great Depression ‘+ Then came the Great Depression and prices collapsed ‘+ Real output (GDP) fell 29% from 1929 to 1933 + Unemployment increased to 25% of labor force + Consumer prices fell 25% : wholesale prices 32% About 7000 banks failed ‘GREAT DEPRESSION TIMELINE: CAUSES & EFFECTSWorld Trade Collapsed fp —_ ol rr _ HOOVER SIGNS TARIFF BILL V. = oo | ASBORAHINSENATESEEKS 4 = | [ 7 CUTS BY FLEXIBLE CLAUSE woo fj . NEW CUTIES Go INTO EFFECT] ®t cera ve The “PSST ac ‘When rte aed npectl 150 Sot Haney Ti oS pss em: et — The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act t + The Hawley-Smoot Tariff wasthe highest tariffin US. History + Foreign countries refused to trade with the United States Itis often blamed for worsening The Global DepressionBanks Failed and Unemployment Spiked U.S. Unemployment Rate in The Great Depression 1. 7000 banks failed - Many during The Panic Number of Banks that Failed 2, The Number of banks fell from 25,000 in 1929 00 015,000 by 1934 000 2800 3. Possible Causes 3000 + Loss of deposits -> Decline in expenditures a *+ Customer relationships broken > Harder to "00 borrow 1000 i i : . 500 Money supply contraction | m9 v0 a1 23The Great Depression vs. The Great Recession GreatDepression 90%6-s0%otBanks —51-Détot Bans ee Ee nalers) (Jan.1930-March1933) 2007 - May 2009) Unemployment EconomicDecne -2asuivariean, ——_At¥(Lastaunrtrz07- Siggetecinein Bowcione ” apzu(seous.van--s34n 0.9.20 fracivat” —luyentes ven 00 fous Chngenprces zaxcan-inag —$254(Oe207-March 2st sort 2 years emergeny _.S4ef60Pryar Sponng——Grreue 92¢B.dger | 2PPAMeTAN Povam Dea Reavesinen Federal stimulus pan 7 Raisetaxes.cut givesfiscalrelietostates State Response spencing {olessenimpactoftax Increase in Money 125% (September 2008- Supply byFederal 17% (1933) alae oar Tarnveregdiaiius:tineiiadbiiidieaiioesenThe Long Climb Back : The Market Took 30 Years to Recover 300 PEAK, SEPTEMBER 1929 il trial eae P : 250 TROUGH, JUNE 1932 : 200 FEDERAL RESERVE CLOSES, MARCH 1933 : 150 100 50 0 1925 60 Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis; Centre for Research in Security Prices December 1925 share prices rebased to 100Look Who Ended Up Paying the Price for Ending The Great Depression! Brave ooo apo Tax Rate Horror: Jarginal Tax Rate for the Top Income Bracket re)“Wishful thinking bias appears to play a role OS eee cet cat Ce SC casBae The Hardest Bubbleto Spotisthe One Youarein.. _Bubbles and Crashes are Like Sequels to Popular Movies "Joint Venture: Partner Domain Leader/ —Investor/ IdeaPerson Director — & ual Capital Research& Development Property | Ss oS EquipmentSectoral Market Share Within an Asset Class pagd eG GPG EG i i 1987 2012 = Financial services Telecommuni = Technology = Healthcare su s = Industrials + Consumer {Commercial Services = Consumer Cyclicals = Consumer Non- Cyclicals = Energy = Basic Materials“The four most dangerous words in investing are, ‘this time is different” Brave - John Templeton “Bull marketsare born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time ‘of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell” - John Templeton i ce i man edSigns of Conspicuous Consumption and Frauds 1 a MADOFP AND THE z BTR Te DEY Wen (OEE Dis}Sotheby's 31 Year Stock Price History ‘Subprime Crisis 2008 20187 Dot-Com Crisis 2001 Japan Asset Crisis 1990 ) = Setheby Company Solafor3.78 7 sune 2018)Contra Indicators ial te OF AssetClass:USEquities Asset Class: TreasuryNotes Asset Class: US Equities, Asset Class: Real Estate August 1978 March 1982 June 2000 June 2008 2000-2003: 2008-2013, Waa sa pean (waspaa) (in Real Estate Value) (Dow Jones) (in Bond Value)Signs of Excessiveness and Extremism TOP SIGNS 1. Largeno. of POs 2. RapidlyRising Prices 3. Excess Leverage 4. Availability of Credit 5. Over-optimistic Front Covers of Newspapers & Magazines . Very High Trading Volumes Historically High P/E & EV/EBITDA Multiples . Art & Luxury Markets Booming . Financial Press and Financial TV become Favourites 10. “ThisTimeis Different” Declared Tl, Amateur Investors moveto Equity Asset Class 12, Innovation Leads to Euphoria 13, Social Proof Leads to Herding som Brave BOTTOM SIGNS No Mergersand Acquisitions NoIPOs No new money for Venture Capital . Low Price/Sales & EV/EBITDA Multiples Many Companies Trading below Book Value Very Low P/E Multiple Central Banks eased for 6 to12 Months . Recession Declared Officially, Newsis Stale Previously Favourite Sectors are Hated Creditonlyavailableto High Quality Borrowers 11. Investorsare Cautious and Out of the Market 12, Negative Front Covers of Newspapersand Magazines 13. Negativeand Depressed Consumer Sentiment Bw OPrearoneMoral Hazard : Survival of the Reckless at the Taxpayers’ Expense Bae “in Ponzi i ; 5George Soros’ Theory of Reflexivity : Reflexivity Creates Virtuous and Vicious Cycles a {Equilibrium Theory: Informationbecomes immediately available to everyone People are Rational Actors Economic Systems go quickly to Equilibrium ATheorist is outside the system observed Theories do not alter the _ system described ‘Source: mp Jenesers pea Fundamentals \ | Reflexivity Theory: People act on incomplete information People are influenced by their Biases Social Systems display Boom and Bust cycles Observers are part of the system observed Theories are means to change the system \_ describedMinsky and dleberger Model ee | yo sae!) | sesimmy? | ar Anatomy of a Typical Bubble Parca es ae a try Lender st srt etree by prong sient ey — ‘WallStreet Crash Japanese eal AslanFinancial a estate andstock Crise marke crash Displacement Endofpostwar Economie eae boom expansionphase_derequstion, changer peas Speclatvensst —_USstocks Monetary stocks boughton Fromlowinteest— sanklending exenson —magin-aalsratepoly, Lenderotast Fedeniveseve Sankotlapan I, Worl Bank, “aaa af babble he Raberger My meas!Five-Lens Framework by Vikram Mansharamani Tip | Great | dapanese | US. Mania __ Depression B00m Bust _ Housing Bust Sa Cre itera ix x x Celatral Crs x [x x x Hot Money x ee ce a eine | Chey /Eieacre Money oalozard Paychology | | Newera Tinka x x x x ; Pattie Sup Demand x x x eee | cory = ix x x stent acest x [x x Poplar Mea [ x x emValuation at the Extremities a a eS7 > ‘The Fed, in effect, has become a serial LLU) oC CoML CD CL)Easy Money and Congenial Interest Rates are Necessary Conditions for Bubbles P/£20 Ratios by Percentile jai Adsied Raa Wh “source “Acvicor Perspectives _Mersacraey .motalcedge com:The Stock Market Pendulum Always Swings the Other Way ‘Stock Market Bubbles Happen et 90th Percentile-Plus Valuations sme rice to Medion-10-Year-Earnings (left scale) — Percentile Rank (right scale) * GqaREREEEe ane Years (1882-2017),Sources of Stock Price Appreciation Bre November 907t0November1916_- August192Ito September 1929 Junei932to May 1946 May 1947 to December 1961 Junet962to December 1968 December 1974to August 1987 December 98710August2000 --February2008t0 October 2007 March2009to December 2018 source nt ese 1 inftation MM Dividendyied HM EarningsGrowth Ml. Valuation ChangesIV CEETU Lae R aM Ont aT MU LU] LK) BaasElevated Debt Levels and Rock Bottom Interest Rates ry | | bs ||. US. Interest Rates Li i fr seceiadthy Re Ganlgomenet MMe cpm Sa ee TOTAL ASSETS OFMATORCOTRAL ENS | [PROT = span Ml Germany Ml Switzerland etme tSeca , z ") Kite cng r Assetsof centralbanksballoonedafter 2008Negative Bond Yields and Currency Interplays : Supply or Price but not Both? Beane a am (ig [an se in a |e [a [as a wy [a8 [a [as Bs i ih 22,Crazy Rich and Profitless Unicorns FLAME Last year, 84% of all IPOs were of ProfitlessCos. Cm ro Parte wee OO) Coa el “a jean 90 5 Fa 7 0 ' x ce 400 5 3500 ss218 = = 47 1.820 ‘ one woe = 2166 safeieicsinenie, caineNetwork Business Dynamics & Exponents of Scale fetes ees SARNOFFBROAOCAST———_METCALFE NETWORK REED COMMUNITY Benet wo, otPosleComectons nove ee : Total of etork=100 ot passe comectns Cimedonen too} seer cineca ine | Methane Lina vata ot sane tare [sper vai romtactiang | expo Vai rom Facing oup sont ener iat sane Valuestnawork | Proprio tote not Preprint square ste.ot —_Yalueeroupterming veers on areslines fermen tee alcove eiAcarues ay Ciara payee gen oo an show mo otPaPPoricpate) ie use bast coment oct ambere west Faction sane Broaden Yah rer roar, on se ner Be mesg 2Neiworke | N*M we aN aeNetwork Economics & Laws of Disruption : Value Migration & Source of Value Creation Dominant Value Regions Best | Most =| Best | Content | Members| Facilitation 3 I ' a I | = I \ | NW/2 | N PLATFORM = REVOLUTION | The value of networkis dependent on scale. functionality. ways of collaborating, ease of use, and context ——|China? "What the public narrative is and what they have been doing behind the scenes are two completely different stories” ~Kyle Bass Escalating Trade War with United States and China is Building ‘weak domestic banks with high NPA ratio 370 Skyscrapers ‘Asset Liability Mismatch ‘Shadow BankingSystem Capital contrat KyleBass (NPA is 20% rather than reported 1.7%) US Tarte on China ‘Souree: Bloomberg. CBC. MISHReversion to Mean : Nature, Business and Psychology are all Cyclical SGP Reversionte Mean SGP SODEVtoEITDA bear ‘SP Earningsto GDP cago ReP@rted CAPERatio Agana its Cumulative Average REREGRRERERERERERSERS Source’ marlatorede cau WasretrendacenReversion to Mean : Nature, Business and Psychology are all Cyclical, so are Valuations AMF Average 10-year SGP 500 Annualized real totalreturn based on Price/Average 10-year Earnings | ® ‘ a : nergehe-8? __AwmepeiE-s__ArmyePEvi?__avgePevias "Aree lttLargest Bull Run in History? Bie 1982-1987 2003-20XX? 1987-2000 1949-1957 1957-1962 2002-2008 11962-1966 Increasing Duration of Bull Market 1970-1973 Diterence between Annualizes S&P 500 Index Return and Nominal GOP Grown 1966-1970 1974-1982 soure eloomDersSareea ode POEM eth eT Reese ces aru TcBubbles and Crashes Occur Across Timelines, Geographies and Asset Classes Brame The Age of Steam & Peters Eee! 157 State Bankrupey(Spalnana France) 1407 SpainBankrupt ete Bankrupt (Augebura) 1697 EndotNetnertands Tulip Bubble {720 Missiesipp cri ‘20 uth Sea Buble cris England 1743 amsterdam Crisein Netherlands 172Collapse ofr BankinSeotiand precintatesBriisn Banking crisis, be martoeraehinuk nn market rasin Habra to Maret rosin assis bake feuorsscraennus 1825 'Latinamericar'CrashinUK 627 Market CrashinFrance. 1094 Market CrashinUk 1827 Market CrashinFranceandUS. 1848 Market Crashin Germany 1857 Lombardstreet Banking Ciel nk 1857 Markel rashin France, USand Germany 1864 aehotCrasnin France 1866 Over end, Gurney Banking Crisis-UK owes Ea, ational udgatis E67.) 4866 Market Crashintaly 1269 BlackFridsyinus 1272 Market Crashin Germany and ‘usta, Panicol1678i9 US ‘882 MarsetCrashin France ceed (Cee ee a ee 4850°Garings'CrashinUK _}958MarketPanicinFrance 1987 Market CrashinUUS.UK. Australia 4893Landdoomcrashin 1961 PreperiyCrashin australia Australis 1990 Market Panicin Japan 192 ‘Siver Crash ins 4962 crashinCanada __we4MarketCrashin Mexico 1997'South East sian Crisie'-Panie {WO7MarketCrashinFrance.nd in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, a 963 Crasnin tay Korea, Russia, Brazi {2000ot-Comans {wor wor Panieinus ‘wes Marist Panicin uk __Talecemmunications rach 1921MarketCrashinUK andUS _167"Transistor‘CrashinUS 2008 Global Financial Crisis sez2swesinbankcrisis _ 968 crashin France {921°BtackFriday’inGermany and}971 Minsec Panicin Braait ‘austalia, 4929 WallStreet Great Crain us ora watisterashinus 4931 Market CrashinuK Germany.Austia,Japan__1979MarketCrisisin usMonetary Printing Press : Gold Standard is (Not) the Solution Brave T T | MsmopereRENT nas mae | DutA- dally, Los 1 i i WORLD OFF GOLD STANDARD ie A ene | atDuration of Boom and Bust : Decreasing Duration and Increasing Frequency FLAME ‘See sareesInflation can Rise Suddenly Francia ‘Consumer Discretionary Technalogy Industria Materials Consumer Staples Hestheare Eneray ‘elscom ilies Interest Rates and nfation BROOKINGS.Fed Tightening Usually Ends with a Financial “Event” Brae Since 2010 Fed. 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 LongTerm Masian=% 4 Soran 2 ay o 15 '21 27 33:39 “45 ‘51 57 63 ‘69 75 81 87 93 99 05 "11 17 ‘Source: Palisade Research, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Global Financial DataProcess to Avoid Group Thinking Bee When nine people agree on something, it's the tenth man’s responsibility to disagree. no matter how improbable the idea— i A Tes) tea = —_ =“What we learnfromhistory, is that we donot learn fromhistory”- Benjamin Disraeli eee ner THE MYTH aise SMARKEL dud! AN UNSTABLE sos ena“Many shall be restored that noware fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor” - Horace Jamous ape atclal oes, 1ascos : : ly eel ¢ : i PRnaene“Those who do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it” - George Santayana Baye NINN | CRASHED NBUIaom 6) ran ah reve PUTTS ern MARKETS \ rit story oFNot everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted. Albert Einstein Thanksto the Teamat Oaklane Capital Management LLP : MrAnkitShah © MsUpasnaLamba MrUtsavAdani_ MsNeharikaBayas MrRaj Agrawal