Limits to Growth

COMMISSIONED BY:
CLUB OF ROME

AUTHORS:
DONELLA H. MEADOWS
DENNIS L. MEADOWS
JORGEN RANDERS
((Prepared
p by
y students)) WILLIAM W. BEHRENS III
 Acceleratingg
Industrialization

Depletion
p of Rapid
p
Non-renewable Population
Resources Growth

World - System
Dynamic Model

Deteriorating Widespread
Environment Malnutrition
Model Presumptions

 All the variables assumed to be growing exponentially

 Ability of the technology to increase resources grew linearly

 First World Model - highly aggregated, output - not necessarily meaningful

 General population - reflecting the average characteristics of the population considered

Model Presumptions (Cont
(Cont’d)
d)

 Only one class of pollutants - lead, mercury, asbestos, stable pesticides and radioisotopes
considered

 Generalized resources - representing combined reserves of all the non-renewable resources

considered

 Simplification of reality - Did not take into account different geographic parts, military,
violence, gap between rich and poor, human ingenuity etc.
Major Conclusions

 Ecological limits to be reached sometime in the 21st century

 Physical Limits - Planet’s finite capacity to absorb the emissions from the industry and
agriculture
i

 Diversion of capital, both financial and human, to fight the constraints

 D li
Decline iin th
the average h lif
human life

 Uncontrollable decline in both population and industry capacity

 Profound,
P f d Proactive,
P ti Societal
S i t l iinnovations
ti through
th h technological,
t h l i l cultural
lt l and
d institutional
i tit ti l
changes
Ecological Constraints

 The five variables interrelated and growing simultaneously

 More population -> more food requirements -> capital growth -> increased resource
requirements -> pollution -> interference with the population and food growth

 Industrial Growth -> Resource requirements -> resource depletion -> capital diversion -> less
capital for future growth -> industrial collapse

 From 1900 to 1970, population increased from 1.6 billion to 3.5 billion, rate of population
growth increased, food and services per capita increased exponentially, resource base
declined dramatically
Solutions

 Global Equilibrium - Ecological and economic stability

 Equal opportunity and realization of human potential

 Strive for the long term collective rather than short term individualistic goals

 Green Revolution, Modern Birth Control etc.

Can technology help?

 Nuclear energy, Agriculture growth, pollution reduction

 With technology, we have learnt to fight against the limits, not to live with them

 The limits are only prolonged, not removed

 Fundamental Problem - System is finite

 Technological Optimism - Let the population and capital growth reach its natural limit and
the technology will handle the rest
Growth - Overshoot - Collapse

 Growth does not necessarily lead to collapse

 Collapse follows growth only if the growth has led to overshoot

 In 1972, it seemed that humanity’s population and economy were still comfortably below
the planet’s carrying capacity

 h h there
It was thought h ill room to grow safely
was still f l while
hil examining
i i l
longer-term i
options

 That may have been true in 1972; by 1992 it was true no longer.
Beyond the Limits and 30
30-Year
Year Update

 Humanity had already overshot the limits of Earth’s support capacity

 Sea level has risen 10–20 cm since 1900

 Most non-polar glaciers are retreating, thickness of Arctic sea ice is decreasing in summer

 In 1998 more than 45 percent of the globe’s people had to live on incomes averaging $2 a
d or less
day l
Beyond the Limits and 30
30-Year
Year Update (Cont
(Cont’d)
d)

 In 2002, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN estimated that 75 percent of the
world’s oceanic fisheries were fished at or beyond capacity

 E
Exponential
ti l growth
th has
h moved
d th
the world
ld ffrom lland
d abundance
b d tto lland
d scarcity
it

 Only one-fifth of the planet’s original forest cover remains in large tracts of undisturbed
natural forests
Where do we stand now?

 Ozone Layer Depletion

 Montreal Protocol – Ban on CFCs and other ozone depletion chemicals

 Temperature rise due to greenhouse gas emission

 Paris Agreement
Solutions

 Over dependence on the technology will one day become the cause of destruction of the
humankind

 Minimize
i i i ththe use off nonrenewable
bl resources

 Prevent the erosion of renewable resources

 U allll resources with

Use ith maximum
i ffi i
efficiency

 Slow and eventually stop exponential growth of population and physical capital
Criticism

 Overly simplistic simulations - assigns little value to the role of technological progress in
solving the problems of resource depletion, pollution, and food production. (Peter Passell,
et al.)

 Growth cannot not continue indefinitely, but that a natural end to growth was preferable
to intervention. By stopping growth too soon, the world would be "consigning billions to
permanent poverty." (Henry C. Wallich, Yale Economist)

 Faulty fundamental underlying concepts- the very idea of what constitutes a "resource"
varies over time. (Julian Simon, Universities of Illinois)
Positive Reviews

 By 21st century, the tide of opinion regarding LTG began to swing in a positive direction.

 Observed historical data from 1970 to 2000 closely match the simulated results of the
"standard run" limits of growth model for almost all the outputs reported (Graham Turner,
CSIRO). Examined a number of reports that discredited the LTG model- found they are
flawed, and reflect misunderstandings about the model

 LTG was a scientifically rigorous and credible warning that was actively rejected by the
intellectual watchdogs of powerful economic interests. (Christian Parenti, Investigative
Journalist)
References

 Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W. (1972). The limits to growth.
New York, 102, 27.

 Meadows,
d D. H., Meadows,
d D. L., & Randers,
d J. (1992).
( 992) Beyond
d the
th limits:
li it global
l b l collapse
ll or
a sustainable future. Earthscan Publications Ltd..

 Meadows, D., & Randers, J. (2012). The limits to growth: the 30-year update. Routledge.

 Meadows, D., Randers, J., & Meadows, D. (2004). A synopsis: Limits to growth: The 30-year
update. Estados Unidos: Chelsea Green Publishing Company.

 Meyer,
M N.
N I.,
I & Nørgaard,
N d J.
J (2011).
(2011) PPolicy
li means ffor sustainable
t i bl energy scenarios.
i IIn
International Conference on Energy, Environment and Health-Optimisation of Future Energy
Systems 2010.