Shaira B.

Cogollodo

BioSci2-A

What is Bayes Theorem?

Named after Thomas Bayes who’s a British mathematician during the 18th century
England, Bayes theorem is a mathematical formula in which is used to determine conditional
probability. The theorem enables a person to revise his/ her predictions or rather update the
probabilities he/ she made when he/ she had discovered a new evidence.

Historical Trace of Bayes Theorem

 1740s: Reverent Bayes, who’s studying theology in Edinburgh and was also classified as
an amateur mathematician discovered the ingenious theory but then mysteriously
abandoned it.
 1761: After the death of Bayes, a man named Richard Price, who’s a friend of Bayes,
picked up the abandoned study. He corrected and edited the paper first for two years before
even publishing it.
 After Bayes and Price, nobody dared to continue the theory until a man named Pierre Simon
Laplace came. He was the one who gave the theory a modern mathematical form and
scientific application, something that Bayes and Price failed to do.
 During the 20th century, the theory drew the attention of some of the greatest statistician of
time and was even used to accomplish evil things. However, there are still few who used
the theory for the common good such as what Alan Turing did. He used the Bayes theorem
to decode the German Enigma cipher and arguably save the Allies from losing the Second
World War. There have been many incidents in history in which Bayes theorem was used.

Applications of Bayes Theorem in today’s world

There have been a lot of instances where we apply the principles of Bayes theorem in real
life.

 In medicine, Bayes theorem was used to help doctors to see the patient’s history and
be able to connect the disease of the patient and its possible cause.
  Simple scenarios such as choosing a restaurant or drawing balls from urns
 In business, businessmen need Bayes theorem since there are instances wherein, they
need to make decisions under uncertainties
 Other practical use of Bayes theorem is gambling and insurance.
 In crops and genetics, Bayes theorem is also used.

References:

A History of Bayes Theorem. (2011, August 29). Retrieved July 22, 2019, from Lesswrong:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RTt59BtFLqQbsSiqd/a-history-of-bayes-theorem

Bayes’ Theorem: A Troubled History and Contested Present. (2012, October 28). Retrieved July 23, 2019,
from Cornell University: http://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2012/10/28/bayes-theorem-a-
troubled-history-and-contested-present/