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Lec1 PDF
Lec1 PDF
Introduction
Lectures 1 - 3.
In this chapter we introduce the basic notions random experiment, sample space, events and probability
of event.
By a random experiment, we mean an experiment which has multiple outcomes and one don't know in
advance which outcome is going to occur. We call this an experiment with `random' outcome. We assume
that the set of all possible outcomes of the experiment is known.
Definition 1.1. Sample space of a random experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of the random
experiment.
Example 1.0.1 Toss a coin and note down the face. This is a random experiment, since there are
multiple outcomes and outcome is not known before the toss, in other words, outcome occur randomly.
More over, the sample space is
Example 1.0.2 Toss two coins and note down the number of heads obtained. Here sample space is
.
Example 1.0.3 Pick a point `at random' from the interval . `At random' means there is no bias in
Definition 1.3 (mutually exclusive events) Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if
If and are mutually exclusive, then occurrence of implies non occurrence of and vice versa.
Note that non occurrence of need not imply occurrence of , since need not be
Example 1.0.5 The events , of the sample space in Example 1.0.1 are mutually exclusive.
Now we introduce the concept of probability of events (in other words probability measure). Intuitively
probability quantifies the chance of the occurrence of an event. We say that an event has occurred, if the
outcome belongs to the event. In general it is not possible to assign probabilities to all events from the
sample space. For the experiment given in Example 1.0.3, it is not possible to assign probabilities to all
subsets of . So one need to restrict to a smaller class of subsets of the sample space. For the
random experiment given in Example 1.0.3, it turns out that one can assign probability to each interval in
as its length. Therefore, one can assign probability to any finite union of intervals in , by
representating the finite union of intervals as a finite disjoint union of intervals. In fact one can assign
probability to any countable union interval in by preserving the desirable property "probability of
countable disjoint union is the sum of probabilities". Also note that if one can assign probability to an
event, then one can assign probability to its compliment, since occurence of the event is same as the
non-occurance of its compliemt. Thus one seek to define probability on those class of events which
satisfies "closed under complimentation" and "closed under countable union". This leads to the following
special family of events where one can assign probabilities.
Definition 1.4 A family of subsets of a nonempty set is said to be a -field if it satisfies the
following.
(i)
(ii) if , then
(iii) if , then .
is a -field.
Proof. Since for all , we have . Now,
Hence is a -field.
Example 1.0.8 Let . Then
This can be seen as follows. From Lemma 1.0.1, is a -field. From the definition of ,
-field containing .
Definition 1.5 A family of subsets of a non empty set is said to be a field if
(i)
(ii) if , then
(iii) if , then .
Now
Then is a probability space. This probability space corresponds to the random experiment of
Solution.
If are pairwise disjoint. Then
Therefore
are in . Then
(1) .
(3)Monotonicity: if , then
(6)Continuity property:
(i) For
(ii) For ,
Proof. Since
This proves (1). Now
Therefore
and
and
Hence
Then
(1.0.1)
Also
(1.0.2)
Using (1.0.1), we get
(1.0.3)
i.e.,
Hence
i.e.,
Therefore
(1.0.4)
Set
Hence
(1.0.5)
Here the second equality follows from the continuity property 6(i). Using (1.0.5), letting in
(1.0.4), we have
Recall that all the examples of probability spaces we had seen till now are with sample space finite or
countable and the -field as the power set of the sample space. Now let us look at a random experiment
with uncountable sample space and the -field as a proper subset of the power set.
Consider the random experiment in Example 1.0.3, i.e, pick a point 'at random' from the interval .
Since point is picked 'at random', the probability measure should satisfy the following.
(1.0.6)
The -field we are using to define P is , the -field generated by all intervals in .
Clearly .
where ,
Then
where
Therefore .
Hence is a field.
Define on as follows.
(1.0.7)
where
Extension of from to follows from the extension theorem by Caratheodary. To understand the
(i)
Example 1.0.13 The set function given by (1.0.7) is a probability measure on the field .
Theorem 1.0.2 (Extension Theorem) A probability measure defined on a field has a unique
extension to .
see Exercise 1.6 , there exists a unique probability measure on preserving (1.0.6).