ANALYSIS THE EFFECT OF PROFITABILITY, LIQUIDITY, LEVERAGE,

ACTIVITY AND SALES GROWTH IN PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS.

(Study of Manufacturing Companies in the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2013-2016).

Rita Kusumawati, M. Hanafi Krisma

Management Study Program of the Faculty Economics and Business
Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
Jl.Brawijaya,Geblagan, Tamantirto, Kasihan, Bantul, Yogyakarta, 55183 Telp. (0274) 387656
Email : kusumawatirita@yahoo.com, hankrisma@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
This study aims to analyze the effect of profitability, liquidity, leverage, activity and sales
growth on financial distress. The object of research is manufacturing companies listed on the
Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2013-2016. This study uses a purposive
sampling method as a sampling technique with a total sample used which is 371 samples or
109 companies. The analytical tool used in this study is logistic regression analysis with SPSS
23 program.The results of this study that profitability has a significant negative effect on
financial distress, liquidity does not have a significant effect on financial distress, leverage has
a significant positive effect on financial distress, activity has a significant negative effect on
financial distress and sales growth has a significant negative effect on financial distress.

Keywords: Profitability, Liquidity, Leverage, Activities, Sales Growth, Financial Distress

INTRODUCTON
The main purpose of an established company is to maximize profits and avoid losses. A good
company is a company that has healthy financial performance and is able to implement various
strategies to maintain its customers. To run this strategy, management is required to get optimal
profits. In this case the management is obliged to manage the system in the company properly
and correctly so that it can continue to compete and avoid financial problems (financial
distress).
Financial distress occurs before the company experiences bankruptcy which is marked by a
decline in the company's financial condition (Gandhi, Loughran, & McDonald, 2018).
According to Fahmi (2014) the decline in financial conditions is characterized by the inability
of a company to manage and fulfill its obligations, thus making the company lose money and
enter into the category of companies that have unhealthy financial statements.
This can be avoided if every company manager is able to understand and interpret the ratios
in the financial statements, because these ratios are believed to be able to provide information
to prevent financial distress (Mas'ud & Srengga, 2015). This statement is also supported by
Hanafi (2004) which states that there are five financial ratios which are often used, among
others, are profitability ratios, liquidity ratios, solvability ratios, activity ratios and market ratios
which are then divided into several ratios which can measure the financial condition of a
company.
 Research related to the influence of financial ratios on financial distress has been done at
this time. As well as research conducted by Gandhi, Loughran & McDonald (2018) which tests
profitability variables on financial distress supported by research; Saba, Ashraf & Kouser
(2017); Rahmy (2015); Nurcahyono & Sudharma (2014); Andre & Taqwa (2014); Saleh &
Sudiyatno (2013); Haq, Arfan & Siwar (2013); Mas'ud & Srengga (2015) and Thim, Choong
& Nee (2011) which states that there is a significant influence between profitability on financial
distress in a manufacturing company, whereas according to research conducted by Simanjuntak,
Titik K & Aminah (2017); Nurcahyono & Sudharma (2014) and Hidayat & Meiranto (2014)
state that profitability has no effect or cannot be used to predict financial distress.

Research related to variable testing of liquidity on financial distress was also carried out
Widhiari & Merkusiwati (2015) and supported by research Hidayat & Meiranto (2014); Haq,
Arfan & Siwar (2013); Thim, Choong & Nee (2011) and Atika, Darminto & Handayani (2012)
which states that there is a significant influence between liquidity on financial distress in a
manufacturing company, whereas according to research conducted by Simanjuntak, Titik K &
Aminah (2017); Nurcahyono & Sudharma (2014); Andre & Taqwa (2014); Saleh & Sudiyatno
(2013); Mas'ud & Srengga (2015) as well Kamaludin & Pribadi (2011) states that liquidity has
no effect or cannot be used to predict financial distress.

Research conducted by Quintiliani (2017) which tests leverage variables on financial distress
and is supported by research Simanjuntak, Titik K & Aminah (2017); Wulansari (2017),
Yudiawati & Indriani (2016); Utami (2015); Hidayat & Meiranto (2014); Andre & Taqwa
(2014) which states that there is a significant influence between Leverage on financial distress
in a manufacturing company, whereas according to research conducted by Rahmy (2015);
Widhiari & Merkusiwati (2015) and Mas'ud & Srengga (2015) state that leverage variables
have no effect or cannot be used to predict financial distress.

Research conducted by Simanjuntak, Titik K & Aminah (2017) which tests activity variables
on financial distress states that there is a significant influence between activities on financial
distress in manufacturing companies and this research is in line with research conducted by
Yudiawati & Indriani (2016); Hidayat & Meiranto (2014) as well Kamaludin & Pribadi (2011),
whereas according to research conducted by Wulansari (2017); Rahmy (2015) and Saleh &
Sudiyatno (2013) state that activity variables have no effect or cannot be used to predict
financial distress.

Research conducted by Wulansari (2017) which tests Sales Growth variables on Financial
Distress and is supported by research Yudiawati & Indriani (2016); Widhiari & Merkusiwati
(2015); Utami (2015) and Thim, Choong & Nee (2011) state that there is a significant influence
between sales growth on financial distress in manufacturing companies, whereas according to
research conducted by Simanjuntak, Titik K & Aminah (2017); Rahmy (2015); and Atika,
Darminto & Handayani (2012) which states that sales growth variables have no effect or cannot
be used to predict the occurrence of financial distress.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Financial Distress
Financial distress is a crisis situation or condition that is being faced by a company where
the financial performance of the company is in the unhealthy category (Mas'ud & Srengga,
2015). This is added by Sun, Shang & Li (2014) that this crisis condition is also called a
precarious situation where companies are experiencing a phase of difficulties in paying debts
and in most cases it is caused by a lack of cash flow or insolvency due to deteriorating corporate
profits. So Rahmy (2015) concludes that there are several main factors that are micro in nature
which are then able to cause companies to experience financial distress and those factors,
among others, are:
a. Cash flow difficulties
That is a situation where the income received by the company from the results of its operating
activities is not enough to cover the overall cost of the company's operating expenses. This is
due to the large failure of the company's operating activities caused by errors and the inability
of the company's management to manage cash flow to make payments in the activities of the
company's activities.
b. The amount of debt
The policy to choose a debt option to cover the company's operating costs will certainly add
to the company's obligation to repay it in the future. The case that often occurs in companies
that experience bankruptcy is when the bill payment is due and the company does not have the
cost to pay off the bills, the creditors then confiscate various assets owned by the company
which ultimately causes the company difficulty in producing or selling its products.
c. Losses in the company's operations
Operational losses in the long run will certainly have an impact on the company's cash flows.
This can happen because the company has a greater dependence on its operating expenses
compared to the income it receives. So this will trigger financial distress in the company.
Financial Performance

According to (Jumingan, 2006) financial performance is a picture of the financial condition

of a company in a certain period which consists of aspects of the collection and distribution of
funds. The company uses financial performance to carry out a measurement and improvement
of its operational activities in order to be able to compete with other companies. Therefore,
companies are required to be able to analyze their financial performance because this relates to
a process of reviewing, calculations, measurements and interpretations of the company's
financial statements which ultimately are able to provide a problem solving that is being faced
by the company in a certain period. This can be measured by several ratios as follows:

1). Profitability
Profitability is a component contained in financial statements that has a function in
describing the ability of corporate profits in the long run. Companies that are said to have good
performance are companies that are able to produce the desired level of profit. So that every
company will always try to increase its profitability to ensure the survival of the company to
avoid bankruptcy (Gandhi, Loughran & McDonald, 2018). If the company has experienced a
continuous decline in net income from assets it has, then there is a high probability that the
company is experiencing financial distress. But if the company gets a large profit from its assets,
it is unlikely that the company will experience financial distress.
H1 = Profitability has a significant negative effect in predicting financial distress.
2). Liquidity
Liquidity is a picture of the ability possessed by a company in fulfilling its financial
obligations by relying on the number of payment instruments (liquid assets) owned by a
company because this is the strength for companies to make payments so they can avoid the
company from bankruptcy (Sartono, 2008). In particular, liquidity reflects the availability of
funds owned by the company to pay all debts that are due. If the company is able to fund and
pay off its short-term obligations properly and correctly automatically the potential of the
company to experience financial distress will be smaller, but if the company is unable to manage
its obligations properly, then the risk of the company experiencing financial distress will be
even greater.
H2 = Liquidity has a significant negative effect in predicting financial distress.
3). Leverage
Leverage is a component that describes the effectiveness of the use of debt held by the
company. In this case, the company is required to be able to consider external funding (debt)
because this can trigger risk along with the use of debt made. The bigger the company is funded
by debt, the higher the risk the company faces in paying off and paying interest before maturity
(Hanafi, 2004).
H3 = Leverage has a significant positive effect in predicting financial distress.
4). Activity
Activity ratio is a component used to measure the effectiveness of company management in
managing its assets. According to Sartono (2010) this is related to the ability to manage the
supply of raw materials, materials in processes and finished materials and matters relating to
policies in the management of other assets. So that this ratio is used to analyze the relationship
between the income statement (sales) and the elements in the balance sheet (assets). The higher
a company gets income from activities that utilize assets, the less likely it is to experience
financial distress.
H4 = Activity has a significant negative effect in predicting financial distress.
5). Sales Growth
Sales growth is a picture of increasing sales of the company from year to year. Sales growth
is high, reflecting an increase in company revenue because it identifies that the products offered
by the company are still in demand by consumers in the market, so if the company still
experiences sales growth, it is unlikely that the company will experience financial difficulties
(Sartono, 2010)
H5 = Sales growth has a significant negative effect in predicting financial distress.

H1 (-sig)
Profitability

Liquidity H2 (-sig)

Leverage H3 (+sig)
Financial

Distress
H4 (-sig)
Activity

H5 (-sig)
Sales Growth

Picture 1. Research Model

RESEARCH METHODS
Population and Samples
The object of this research is that all companies engaged in the manufacturing industry
sector are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2013-2016. The
sample was selected using a purposive sampling technique based on several criteria,
namely: (1) Companies that present financial statements during the observation period that
have been listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX); (2) Companies that report interest
costs explicitly from the 2013-2016; (3) Manufacturing companies that use the rupiah in
the 2013-2016 financial statements.

Operational Definition and Variable Measurement

1. Financial Distress
Financial distress is a condition that occurs when a company experiences financial
difficulties. Financial Distress variables in this study are categorical variables (dummy),
which are variables where there are two choices, namely companies that experience and
companies that do not experience financial distress. Financial distress variables are
measured using Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR). Companies that have less than one ICR
are companies that fall into the category of companies that experience financial distress,
while companies that have one or more ICRs are companies that have no financial
difficulties (Yuanita, 2010). Because this variable is a dummy, the value of 1 (one) for
financial distress companies and the value of 0 (zero) for companies not financial distress.
Measurements using interest coverage ratios are also used in research (Thim, Choong, &
Nee, 2011).
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇
ICR =
𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒
2. Profitability
Profitability ratio is used to see the company's ability to generate profits at the level of
sales, assets and certain stock capital (Saba, Ashraf, & Kouser, 2017). This variable
measurement is proxied by:
𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡
ROA = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡

3. Liquidity
The liquidity ratio shows the company's ability to meet its short-term needs on time.
Current ratio is the ratio number obtained by dividing current assets with current liabilities
(Sartono, 2010). The measurement of liquidity variables is proxied by:
𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡
Current Ratio = 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠
 4. Leverage
The leverage ratio is used to measure a company's ability to fulfill its debt. Companies
that are not solvable are companies whose total debt is greater than their total assets
(Hanafi, 2004). ). The measurement of leverage variables is proxied by:
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡
DAR = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡

5. Activity
Activity ratio shows the effectiveness of the company in using its assets to create
revenue (Sartono, 2010). The measurement of activity variables is proxied by:
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
Total Asset Turnover = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡

6. Sales Growth
The Sales Growth ratio is a benchmark of market acceptance of the product or service
offered, and the income received from the sale can be used to measure growth rates
(Sartono, 2010). The measurement of sales growth variables is proxied by:
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑡 −𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 (𝑡−1)
Sales Growth = 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 (𝑡−1)

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Descriptive statistics
Table 1.
Descriptive statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
ROA 371 -.548 .657 .04710 .105664
CR 371 .201 7.288 1.94241 1.287516
DAR 371 .085 1.407 .50690 .224082
TATO 371 .015 2.886 1.02893 .500622
SG 371 -.786 1.990 .07478 .243897
Valid N
371
(listwise)
Source: Output SPSS 24
Based on the results of descriptive analysis, table 1 shows the variable profitability (ROA)
has an average value of 0.04710 with a standard deviation of 0.105664. Liquidity variable (CR)
has an average value of 1.94241 with a standard deviation of 1.287516. . Variable leverage
(DAR) has an average value of 0.50690 with a standard deviation of 0.224082. Activity variable
(TATO) has an average value of 1.02893 with a standard deviation of 0.500622 and the sales
growth variable (SG) has an average value of 0.07478 with a standard deviation of 0.243897.
 Feasibility Regression Model
1. Hosmer and Lemeshow’s Goodnes of Fit Test
Table 2.
Hosmer and Lemeshow Test
Step Chi-square df Sig.
1 10.127 8 .256
Source: Output SPSS 24

Based on table 2, the Sig Hosmer and Lemeshow Test values show the number 0.256 or
(0.256> 0.05) which identifies that the data used is accepted and in accordance with the
regression model. This also shows that there is no difference between model and data.
2. Overall Model Fit Test
Table 3.
Comparison of the -2LL Initial with -2LL Final
-2LL Initial (Block Number = 0)

Coefficients

Iteration -2 Log likelihood Constant

Step 0 1 385.846 -1.148

2 384.228 -1.301

3 384.225 -1.307

4 384.225 -1.307
Source: Output SPSS 24
-2LL Final (Block Number = 1)

Coefficients

Iteration -2 Log likelihood Constant ROA CR DAR TATO SG

Step 1 1 286.804 -1.244 -.312 .146 1.323 -.319 -1.236

2 248.676 -1.679 -.905 .172 1.863 -.459 -2.031

3 229.408 -2.114 -2.163 .166 1.829 -.477 -2.058

4 224.934 -2.508 -3.075 .183 1.866 -.538 -2.057

5 224.700 -2.628 -3.324 .190 1.910 -.563 -2.094

6 224.699 -2.636 -3.340 .190 1.914 -.564 -2.097

7 224.699 -2.636 -3.340 .190 1.914 -.564 -2.097

Source: Output SPSS 24
Test results from the overall fit test model by comparing the initial -2log likelihood (block
number = 0) and final -2log likelihood (block number = 1) indicating a decrease, value of the
initial -2log likelihood (block number = 0) is 384,225 and the value of the final -2log likelihood
(block number = 1) is 224,699. So it can be concluded that the regression model can be used to
predict financial distress.
3. Omnibus Test of Model Coefficients
Table 4.
Omnibus Test of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 159.526 5 .000
Block 159.526 5 .000
Model 159.526 5 .000
Source: Output SPSS 24
In table 4 shows the significance value of the Omnibus Test of Model Coefficients of 0,000
<0,05, indicating that the data in this study are feasible to use.

Hypothesis Test

1. Coefficient of Determination (Nagelkerke R Square)

The coefficient of determination (R2) is a test used to measure how strong the model is in
explaining the variation of the dependent variable.
Table 5.
Coefficient of Determination Test

-2 Log Cox & Snell Nagelkerke

Step likelihood R Square R Square
a
1 224.699 .349 .542
Source: Output SPSS 24
Based on table 5 the Nagelkerke R Square value is 0.542 identifies that the ability of the
independent variables measured using ROA, DAR, CR, TATO and SG in predicting financial
distress variables can be explained by 54.2%. The remaining 45.8% is explained by other
factors outside the model of the research variable.
2. Classification Table
Table 6.
Classification Table
Predicted
ICR
Observed NON FD FD Percentage Correct
Step 1 ICR NON FD 286 6 97.9
FD 32 47 59.5
Overall Percentage 89.8
Source: Output SPSS 24
 Based on the results in table 6 of the 371 samples used, the total number of samples that
did not experience financial distress was 286 + 6 = 292 samples. Samples that did not
experience financial distress actually amounted to 286 samples and should be samples that did
not experience financial distress but experienced financial distress totaling 6 samples, so the
correct classification was 97.9%. The total number of samples experiencing financial distress
was 32 + 47 = 79 samples. The sample that experienced financial distress actually numbered
47 samples and the sample that had experienced financial distress but did not experience
financial distress was 32 samples, so the classification accuracy was 59.5%. The table above
shows the overall percentage value of 89.8 which indicates that the accuracy in this research
model in predicting financial distress is 89.8%.

3. Hypothesis Test
Hypothesis testing is done to give an answer to the problem formulation in the study. The
results of hypothesis testing in this study will be shown in the following table:

Table 7. Hypothesis Test

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Step 1a ROA -3.340 .627 28.359 1 .000 .035

CR .190 .183 1.081 1 .298 1.209

DAR 1.914 .445 18.537 1 .000 6.781

TATO -.564 .280 4.070 1 .044 .569

SG -2.097 .753 7.749 1 .005 .123

Constant -2.636 .432 37.259 1 .000 .072

Source: Output SPSS 24
Based on the results of hypothesis testing in table 7 the regression equation is obtained as
follows:
ICR = –2,636 – 3,340 ROA + 1,914 DAR + 0,190 CR – 0,564 TATO – 2,097 SG

Discussion
The results of hypothesis one indicate that profitability as measured by ROA has a negative
and significant effect on financial distress. This result accepts the first hypothesis statement.
Profitability is the company's ability to generate profits on sales and investments made by the
company. This capability is then used as an indicator tool in measuring the health and efficiency
of a company. Companies that have high profit values indicate that the company is effective in
using its assets to generate profits for the company, so the possibility of companies experiencing
financial distress is so very small. This research support the research conducted by Gandhi,
Loughran & McDonald (2018), Saba, Ashraf & Kouser (2017), Andre & Taqwa (2014),
Nurcahyono & Sudharma (2014), Saleh & Sudiyatno (2013) and Thim, Choong & Nee (2011).
However, this research does not support the research conducted by Simanjuntak, Titik K &
Aminah (2017), Nurcahyono & Sudharma (2014), Hidayat & Meiranto (2014) and Atika,
Darminto & Handayani (2012) which states that profitability has no effect in predicting
financial distress.

The results of the second hypothesis show that liquidity as measured by CR has no
influence in predicting financial distress conditions. This result rejects the statement of the
second hypothesis which states that liquidity has a significant negative effect on financial
distress. So this explains that the use of short-term debt is considered not yet able to describe
the use of corporate debt, because generally companies prefer and focus on the use of long-term
debt. Long-term debt is chosen by the company because of the large nominal amount and also
long-term debt has a long time to pay debt. This is usually done by manufacturing companies
because the use of long-term debt is also closely related to financing the company's operational
activities such as in the procurement of facilities such as tools and machines used by companies
in producing. The results of this study support research Fajriyanty (2017); Simanjuntak, Titik
K & Aminah (2017) as well Andre & Taqwa (2014). But this study rejects the research
conducted by Widhiari & Merkusiwati (2015); Hidayat & Meiranto (2014); Haq, Arfan & Siwar
(2013); Thim, Choong & Nee (2011) as well Atika, Darminto & Handayani (2012) which states
that liquidity has a significant negative effect in predicting financial distress in a company.

The results of the third hypothesis indicate that leverage measured by DAR has a significant
positive effect in predicting financial distress. This result accepts the third hypothesis statement.
Leverage shows the amount of asset value of a company funded by its debts. The higher this
ratio shows the higher risk of financial difficulties that will be received by the company. This
is because companies that have high debt are at risk of making interest payments before
maturity, so the possibility of companies experiencing financial difficulties is also higher
because companies are feared unable to pay their debts. The results of this study support
research Wulansari (2017); Simanjuntak, Titik K & Aminah (2017); Quintiliani (2017),
Yudiawati & Indriani (2016); Utami (2015); Andre & Taqwa (2014); Hidayat & Meiranto
(2014); Saleh & Sudiyatno (2013); Haq, Arfan & Siwar (2013) and Atika, Darminto &
Handayani (2012). And this study rejects the research conducted by Rahmy (2015); Widhiari
& Merkusiwati (2015) as well Mas'ud & Srengga (2015) which states that leverage variables
have no effect or cannot be used to predict financial distress.

The results of the fourth hypothesis indicate that activities measured by TATO have a
significant negative effect in predicting financial distress conditions. This result accepts the
fourth hypothesis statement. The activity ratio that uses the value of asset turnover shows that
how effective the company is in using and utilizing all its assets in generating sales and earning
profits. The greater value of this ratio, the better because it identifies that assets can spin faster
in generating profits and shows the level of efficiency of the company to use all its assets in
generating sales and the possibility of companies experiencing financial difficulties will also be
smaller. The results of this study support research Simanjuntak, Titik K & Aminah (2017);
Yudiawati & Indriani (2016) and Hidayat & Meiranto (2014). But this study rejects the research
conducted by Wulansari (2017); Rahmy (2015); Utami (2015); Saleh & Sudiyatno (2013) as
well Atika, Darminto & Handayani (2012) which states that activity variables no effect or
cannot be used to predict financial distress.

The results of the fifth hypothesis show that sales growth has a significant negative effect
in predicting financial distress. This result accepts the fifth hypothesis statement. This shows
that sales growth is the ability of the company to maintain its economic position amid
competition and economic growth. The higher the company's sales growth shows that the higher
the profit received by the company, because it proves the success achieved by the company in
selling its products. So that companies can maintain their financial condition and reduce the
risk of financial distress. The results of this study support research Wulansari (2017); Yudiawati
& Indriani (2016); Widhiari & Merkusiwati (2015) and Thim, Choong & Nee (2011). But this
study rejects the research Simanjuntak, Titik K & Aminah (2017); Rahmy (2015) and Atika,
Darminto & Handayani (2012) which states that sales growth variables have no effect or cannot
be used to predict financial distress.

CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS

a. Conclusions
Based on the results of this study, it can be concluded: (1) Profitability has a significant
negative effect on financial distress. (2) Liquidity does not affect on financial distress.
(3) Leverage has a significant positive effect on financial distress. (4) Activity has a significant
negative effect on financial distress. (5) Sales growth has a significant negative effect on
financial distress.
b. Suggestions
Suggestions in this study, namely: (1) For the next researcher, it is expected to be able to
use other financial ratios outside the ratio in this study which might have a significant influence
in predicting financial distress. (2) For the next researcher, they can develop a sample by
changing sectors not only in manufacturing companies but in other sectors listed on the
Indonesia Stock Exchange. (3) For further researchers can add to the research period so as to
be able to increase the number of sample companies to be studied.
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