Poliheuristic Theory

Developed by Alex Mintz and his small specialist group, Poliheuristic Theory suggests that
political decision-makers use several (poly) cognitive (heuristic) shortcuts and set
combination of a valid account of processes and a reasonable prediction of outcomes as its
target, meaning that it subscribes both the instrumental epistemology of rational choice
theory, focus on making predictions, and the realist epistemology of cognitive theories which
focuses on identifying the genuine processes that govern decision-making.
Concept of decision-making in Poliheuristic Theory is divided into two phases based on
diverse cognitive processes. First is the immediate elimination of the options which
politically unfavourable even if the option could lead to a beneficial condition. In this phase,
decision-makers put focus in a single dimension in order to identify unacceptable options.
The dimension is chosen by the decision-maker and vary from one to another decision-maker,
but still include those that are directly linked to their political survival. However, this
particular phase is non-compensatory, meaning that the weaknesses of one option in a given
dimension cannot be compensated for by the strengths in others. For instance, Turkey
disagreed with the deployment of 62,000 American troops on its soil in preparation for the
attack on Iraq, even though US offered the form of economic aid worth more than 30 billion
dollars and diplomatic support in enteric EU as the compensations. Hence, second phase will
begin when possible options has been reduced, which corresponds more to the logic of
rational choice (interdimensional and compensatory). Various dimensions are examined
together to find which strength that could compensate others weaknesses.
Meanwhile, many people see the capacity to build bridges between different theoretical
approaches is the main attraction from Poliheuristic Theory since it shows the possibility to
combine the rule of maximizing utility drawn from rational choice theory, the strategic
component of rational deterrence theory, game theory’s formal methodological approach,
cybernetic theory’s concept of satisfaction and prospect theory’s loss aversion. In addition,
approach by constructivist could be integrated by non-compensatory phase of Poliheuristic
Theory, including those that are genuinely far removed from methodological individualism
and positivism which characterize rational choice theory.