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Article history: The maintenance decision of petrochemical plant is a main factor to ensure the reliability and safety of
Received 8 November 2017 petrochemical plant, in order to make the optimal maintenance decision of petrochemical plant, and the
Received in revised form 20 April 2018 fuzzy curvelet neural network is constructed to solve this problem. The maintenance model of petrochem-
Accepted 21 April 2018
ical plant is established through considering economy and reliability, and the failure rate and maintenance
Available online 27 April 2018
cost models of petrochemical plant are deduced. The architectural framework of fuzzy curvelet neural
network is designed, which concludes five layers, and the optimal algorithm procedure is designed based
Keywords:
on improved particle swarm algorithm. The simulation analysis of predicting maintenance cost and fail-
Maintenance decision
Petrochemical plant
ure rate for 1 million tons/year gasoline hydrodesulphurization unit is carried out based on three different
Fuzzy curvelet neural network decision methods, the new method has best precision by comparing simulation results with actual data,
Improved particle swam algorithm and the maintenance cost and failure rate of the unit from 2017 to 2022 are predicted. In addition, the
best maintenance plans are confirmed through predicting simulation bases on the proposed method. The
proposed maintenance decision model offers scientific guidance as a basis for action by overhaul decision
makers of a petrochemical plant.
© 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2018.04.043
1568-4946/© 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
204 B. Zhao et al. / Applied Soft Computing 69 (2018) 203–212
repairable and aging failure models with maintenance activities, approach should be enlarged through releasing some assumptions
and the optimal inspection interval could be determined based on [16].
this model [5]. From the economic point of view, petrochemical In recent years, most optimization methods on maintenance
enterprise spends a large amount of direct costs on maintenance decision have been carried out with a single target, and have
of equipment, while the indirect costs and other potential factors ignored simultaneous optimization of multiple targets, and there-
also affect greatly on total costs of the maintenance process [6]. fore it is difficult to make proper maintenance plans [17]. The
Currently the petrochemical enterprise not only concerns the ini- optimal model of making maintenance decision of petrochemical
tial investment costs, but also focuses on the running, maintenance, plant can be constructed by considering the reliability and econ-
failure, and decommissioning costs [7,8]. To consider total costs and omy of maintenance of petrochemical system [18,19]. In order to
benefit in the whole life cycle of petrochemical equipment perspec- confirm the optimal maintenance decision of petrochemical plant,
tive, the initial investment, running and decommissioning costs are the fuzzy curvelet neural network is used to predict the reliability
not changed basically, and the maintenance and failure costs can and economy of it, and then the best maintenance decision can be
be further optimized. chosen.
The maintenance decision can affect the type and times of The most maintenance decision models have been proposed for
overhaul and the costs of maintenance, and it can also affect the single device system, but the practical system is made up of mul-
reliability, the failure rate and costs of the petrochemical plants tiple equipments such as the petrochemical plant, therefore the
during operation, therefore the maintenance decision should be maintenance decision model of multiple equipment system should
made reasonably to reduce maintenance cost and failure number be further studied [20]. The existing maintenance models have con-
[9,10]. structed based on single factor such as risk evaluation, reliability,
In recent years, the most maintenance decision models have and replacement. While the reliability and economy work together
been built, which have been successfully applied in many fields. to affect the selection of maintenance decision of multiple equip-
Grobbelaar S. and Visser J.K. proposed a maintenance decision ment system, therefore the maintenance decision model should be
model by combing renewal theory and decision analysis method, modified for the consideration of the reliability and economy. This
which could be applied in confirming the expected replacement research is committed to build a maintenance decision model of
cost per unit time of predictive maintenance, and could be used to petrochemical plant considering reliability and economy. The best
cope with repairable system. The practical application of the pro- maintenance plan is confirmed based on prediction of reliability
posed model should be future studied based on case study analyses and economic indices [21]. An effective prediction method should
[11]. be applied to predict these indices.
Chemweno P. et al. proposed a method of risk evaluation tool The fuzzy wavelet neural network is an effective prediction
in the maintenance decision making domain, and derived the tool. It not only retains the ability of the wavelet analysis, but also
generic selection criteria for FMEA, FTA and BN based on ISO has high approximation capability and strong generalization ability
31000:2009 standard, and analysis results showed that the new [22].
method could assist maintenance practitioners. The methodology Currently the wavelet neural network has been constructed
should be extended to alternative techniques. A robust decision by combing wavelet function with neural network, which has
support tool should be established to select suitable techniques been applied in many fields successfully. Loussifi H. et al. pro-
in maintenance decision making domain [12]. Galar D. et al. pro- posed a hybrid intelligent method for system identification, and
posed a diagnosis and prognosis approach for maintenance decision the mother wavelets were used as activation functions for the neu-
making, and was applied in evaluate the consistency and the relia- ral network structure, and as the kernel functions in the machine
bility of the measurement data obtained during laboratory testing learning process. Simulation results showed that the new method
activity, and the process of data aggregation was addressed into a had higher precision and performance than other methods. The
contextual awareness hybrid model, this method could ensure that proposed model could be further improved through using addi-
the life cycle of assets was managed and optimized. This proposed tional mother functions and other learning algorithm [23]. Chen
model could get Residual Useful Life values but not predict the S.Y. et al. proposed a novel recurrent wavelet fuzzy neural network
maintenance costs. [13]. Nugraha H. et al. applied RAMS (reliability, with adaptive learning rate to control the rotor position on the axial
availability, maintainability, and security) in analyzing the mainte- direction of a thrust magnetic bearing mechanism, the new method
nance planning on the 150-kV submarine cables of the Java-Bali was put forward by combining wavelet transform and fuzzy rules,
power transmission system in Indonesia, and made four alterna- which could control the thrust magnetic bearing precisely [24].
tives of a maintenance scheme based on maintenance interval and Wavelet neural networks have also been improved based on
cable’s mechanical protection, this proposed maintenance decision fuzzy theory. Ong P. and Zainuddin Z. proposed a new fuzzy C-
model could be further applied in other fields [14]. Damerdji R.O. means algorithm for improving the wavelet neural network, and
and Noureddine M. analyzed a maintenance decision-making for the modified wavelet neural network was applied to benchmark
a system subject to corrective and preventive maintenance, and problem, and assessment analysis showed that the new method
proposed a method including both an extension of the Alert Delay had higher prediction accuracy [25].
model and the total maintenance cost assessment of the system, Integration of fuzzy theory and wavelet neural network can
and the new method was verified through simulation analysis. The overcome the defects of neural network and fuzzy theory in knowl-
final result was the optimum maintenance strategy at lowest cost edge processing. The fuzzy wavelet neural network applied to
and likelihood to perform preventive or corrective maintenance maintenance decision of petrochemical plant is feasible. In order
[15]. Hoang A. et al. studied the evolution of conventional main- to improve the prediction effect of fuzzy wavelet neural network,
tenance decision-making process in industry for considering the the curvelet function is used as excitation function to construct
energy efficiency indicator, and defined the concepts of energy the fuzzy curvelet neural network because the curvelet transform
efficiency indicator which materialized the energy efficiency per- not only keeps the multi-scale characteristics of wavelet method,
formance at a specific time and remaining energy-efficient lifetime but also has characteristics of anisotropy [26]. In this research, the
for tracking the energy efficiency performance evolution. They pro- fuzzy curvelet neural network is proposed based on fuzzy theory
posed the mathematical model of computing the energy efficiency and wavelet neural network. The fuzzy curvelet neural network is
indicator, and formalized a generic approach to assess the remain- trained using the improved particle swarm algorithm to improve
ing energy-efficient lifetime value. The credibility of the proposed the convergence precision. The maintenance costs and failure rate
B. Zhao et al. / Applied Soft Computing 69 (2018) 203–212 205
of petrochemical plant are predicted using the proposed method to Then the failure rate can be computed based on expressions (1) and
enhance prediction precision and efficiency. The improved main- (3):
tenance decision system based on fuzzy curvelet neural network is
constructed to confirm the best maintenance plan. f (t) ˛ t ˛−1
(t) = = ·( ) (4)
This paper is organized in the following way. In Section 2, the R(t)
related research progress is summarized. In Section 3, the economy MTBF can be deduced as follows [33]:
and reliability mathematical models of petrochemical plant main- +∞
tenance are demonstrated. In Section 4, the mathematical model ˛ ˛−1 −( t )˛
MTBF = t ·e dt (5)
of fuzzy neural network is also demonstrated. In Section 5, the ˛
0
effectiveness of the proposed decision model is verified based on
t ) ˛
simulation analysis, and the optimal maintenance plan is confirmed −(
Let = e , and the expression (5) is converted to the following
based on prediction. Finally, the important conclusions and future form:
researching work are derived. +∞
1 1
MTBF = · ˛ · e− d = · (1 + ) (6)
2. Mathematical models of economy and reliability of 0
˛
petrochemical plant maintenance
For j th minor maintenance period in i th overhaul period, the fol-
2.1. Reliability model of maintenance for petrochemical plant lowing equation is obtained:
1
The maintenance decision of petrochemical plant is influenced MTBFij = ij · (1 + ) (7)
˛ij
by many factors. The reliability should be considered in process of
making maintenance decision of petrochemical plant. Gero W. and Based on assumption 2, the shape parameters in different main-
Simme D.F. proposed a new kind of condition-based maintenance tenance period are all defined by ␣, and then the scale parameter
policy, and used the system’s reliability block diagram and infor- can be calculated by the following expression:
mation with respect to the status of its components to calculate the i+j−2
residual life distribution [27]. Rabiul I. et al. developed a particu- ij = 11 · (1-d) (8)
lar technique applicable for the maintenance procedures of marine where d denotes the degradation rate between maintenance peri-
and offshore operations to improve the safety and reliability of the ods.
maintenance procedure on board [28]. The theories and methods The relationship between failure rates in different maintenance
of reliability centered maintenance have concerned by many sci- period is expressed as follows [34]:
entists gradually. The failure rate is associated with utility time of
the petrochemical plant, and it is a function of time. The failure rate ˛ · t ˛−1 ˛ · t ˛−1 1
ij = = = · 11 (9)
changes can be divided into three stages in life cycle of petroleum ˛ ij (1 − d)
(i+j−2)˛ ˛
11 (1 − d)
(i+j−2)˛
plant, which are early failure, accidental failure and loss failure
stages. In the first stage, the failure rate of petrochemical plant The other preventive maintenance periods can be computed by
declines gradually with time. In the second period, the petrochem- the known 11 and ␣ of the first preventive maintenance period.
ical plant will fail accidentally due to sudden incident, because the Where 11 and ␣ can be obtained based on the least square method
fault behavior in this stage is incidental, therefore the failure rate is according to the previous maintenance data of petrochemical plant.
relatively low. In the third stage, the failure rate of petrochemical
plant rises due to aging failure of petrochemical equipment. 2.2. Economy model of maintenance for petrochemical plant
Three assumptions are given in order to analyze this problem
easily, which are listed as follows: Production costs of petrochemical plant was largely affected by
Assumption 1: the Weibull distribution is used to describe the maintenance cost, and maintenance costs depend mainly on the
life of petrochemical equipment, and the two-parameters Weibull strategy for performing maintenance [35]. The maintenance modes
distribution model is applied in this research to simply analysis of petrochemical plants mainly conclude scheduled and post acci-
process [29]. dent maintenances, and the first mode concludes regular major and
Assumption 2: in a maintenance cycle, the mean time between minor overhauls.
failures of petrochemical equipment is independent. For different The costs of scheduled and post accident maintenances con-
minor overhaul period, the mean time between failures obeys the clude two parts, which are maintenance material and construction
same distribution, but has different distribution parameters [30]. costs. The major scheduled maintenance cost is defined by Cma ,
Assumption 3: the maintenance time of petrochemical plant is and the minor scheduled maintenance cost is defined by Cmi , The
ignored [31]. post-accident maintenance cost is defined by Cp .
The failure density function of the petrochemical plant is Cma , Cmi and Cp are calculated by the following equations [36]:
expressed as follows [32]:
Cma = Cmam + Cmao (10)
˛ ˛−1 −( t )˛
f (t) = t ·e (1)
˛ Cmi = Cmim + Cmio (11)
where ␣ denotes shape parameter, denotes scale parameter.
Cp = Cpm + Cpo (12)
The failure distribution function of the petrochemical plant is
expressed as follows: where Cmam , Cmim , and Cpm are the material costs of major
t )
−(
˛ scheduled maintenance, minor scheduled maintenance and post-
F(t) = 1-e (2) accident maintenance respectively. Cmao , Cmio and Cpo are the
The reliability function of the petrochemical plant is expressed construction costs of major scheduled maintenance, minor sched-
as follows: uled maintenance and post-accident maintenance respectively.
t ) ˛ The major scheduled maintenance time is defined by Nma , the
−(
R(t) = e (3) minor scheduled maintenance time is defined by Nmi , and accident
206 B. Zhao et al. / Applied Soft Computing 69 (2018) 203–212
time is defined by Np , and then the total maintenance cost of petro- The real and non negative low pass window is imparted, and the
chemical plant in a cycle is calculated by the following expression: following condition is satisfied.
2
Ctotal = Cma · Nma + Cmi · Nmi + Cp · Np (13) |W0 (r)|2 + |W (2−j r)| = 1 (21)
j≥0
where Np denotes the failure time, which is calculated by the fol-
lowing expression:
3.2. Theory model of fuzzy curvelet neural network
T
Np = (t)dt (14) Fuzzy curvelet neural network has five layers, which are input
0 layer, fuzzification layer, rule layer, curvelet layer and output layer.
The structure of the fuzzy curvelet neural network is shown in Fig. 1.
3. Mathematical model of fuzzy curvelet neural network
(1) The first layer is input layer, which corresponds to current
Based on the basic theory of wavelet neural network, the parameters of petrochemical plant.
curvelet theory is combined with artificial neural network to con- (2) The second layer is the fuzzification layer, which carry out fuzzy
struct the curvelet neural network, the curvelet neural network not processing for input parameters of petrochemical plant, and the
only has the scale and location path of traditional wavelet neural Gaussian function is used as the membership degree function,
network, but also has directionality, and then the curvelet neural which is expressed by [39]
network can construct the more complex decision plane to obtain
neural network model with excellent performance. In addition, the (xi −
ij )2
−
fuzzy theory is also combined with the curvelet neural network to 2 2
Mj (xi ) = e ij (22)
construct the fuzzy curvelet neural network in order to describe the
fuzziness and uncertainty of information in maintenance decision where i = 1, 2, . . . , m, m denotes the number of input parameters;
of petrochemical plant. j = 1, 2, . . . , n, n denotes the number of fuzzy rules in third layer;
ij
and ij are center and base width of Gaussian membership degree
3.1. Basic theory of curvelet transform function; Mj (xi ) denotes the membership degree function of i th
input variable for j th rule.
The curvelet transform was firstly put forward by Donoho et al.,
which was a kind of multi-scale and multidirectional expressions (3) The third layer is rule layer, which corresponds to n fuzzy rules,
with anisotropy, and then the curvelet transform was improved every node corresponds to a fuzzification rule. The membership
by Candes et al. in 2002, and then the fast curvelet transform was degree of input variable given of every fuzzy rule is calculated
obtained. by the following expression:
In 2D space R2 , the space position parameter is defined by s,
the frequency domain parameter is defined by ω, the polar coor- j (x) = Mj (x1 ) ∗ Mj (x2 ) ∗ · · · ∗ Mj (xm ) (23)
dinates in frequency domain are defined by r and ϑ respectively. where * denotes the t-norm product operator, j (x) denotes the
Suppose radial window W(r) and angle window V(t) are smooth, input variable of next layer.
nonnegative, and real functions, W(r) and V(t) satisfy the following
conditions [37]: (4) The fourth layer is curvelet layer, and the product of output
+∞ variables in third layer and fourth layer is used as the output of
W 2 (2j r) = 1, 0.75 < r < 1.5 (15) fifth layerm. Theoutput of j th curvelet neuron in fourth layer is
calculated by
j=−∞
+∞ COq =
q ϕj,l,k (x) (24)
V 2 (t − l) = 1, −0.5 < t < 0.5 (16)
The output error of model is calculated by the following expres-
j=−∞
sion [40]:
The scale parameter of curvelet transform is 2-j , and the rotation 1 e 2
E= Y −Y (25)
angle sequence ϑj,l is expressed by 2
where Ye denotes the expected output, Y denotes the current out-
ϑj,l = 2 × 2−j/2 × l, l = 0, 1, . . ., 0 ≤ ϑj,l ≤ 2 (17) put.
(j,l) The parameters of membership degree function and curvelet
The displacement parameter sequence xk is expressed by function should be regulated in the training of fuzzy curvelet neu-
T ral network. The equations of parameter adjustable algorithm are
−1
(k1 2−j , k2 2−j/2 )
(j,l)
xk = Rϑ (18) listed as follows:
j,l
∂E
The curvelet function is expressed as follows [38]: ϑj,l (t + 1) = ϑj,l (t) + (26)
∂ϑj,l
(j,l)
ϕj,l,k (x) = ϕj [Rϑj,k (x − xk ] (19)
∂E
k1 (t + 1) = k1 (t) + (27)
where Rϑj,k is the rotating matrix of angle ϑj,l . ∂k1
The continuous curvelet transform in frequency domain is ∂E
k2 (t + 1) = k2 (t) + (28)
expressed by ∂k2
1 1 (j,l) ∂E
c(j, k, l) = ˆ j,l,k (ω)dω =
f (ω)ϕ̄ f (ω)Uj (Rϑl ω)e
[i<x
k
,ω>]
dω (20)
ij (t + 1) =
ij (t) + (29)
42 42 ∂
ij
B. Zhao et al. / Applied Soft Computing 69 (2018) 203–212 207
Table 1 Table 2
Main physical work quantities of maintenance. Factors and levels of orthogonal test.
Item Number Item Number Level Parameters of improved particle swarm algorithm
5. Simulation analysis of maintenance decision for a for i th level of j th factor. The smaller the average convergence alge-
petrochemical plant bra is, the higher convergence efficiency is. For number of particle
(j = 1), K2j is smallest, therefore the optimal number of particles is
To verify the effectiveness of the fuzzy curvelet neural network 50. The best level of other parameters of improved particle swarm
proposed, the simulation analysis of maintenance decision is car- algorithm can be obtained based on the same reason.
ried out for 1 million tons/year gasoline hydrodesulphurization unit The parameters of training algorithm are finally set as follows:
in a petrochemical company. Main physical work quantities are the particle swarm concludes 50 particles, vmax = 10,c1 = c2 = 2,
listed in Table 1. ω1 = 0.52, ω2 = 0.64, ε = 0.85 in this research. The input variables
The distribution parameters of petrochemical plant mainte- of fuzzy curvelet neural network select seventeen factors of affect-
nance are confirmed based on the least square method, the previous ing maintenance decision of petrochemical plant, which conclude
maintenance data from 1987 to 2016 are collected to get the fitting medium (x1 ), volume (x1 ), pressure (x2 ), operation (x4 ), service time
line, and the corresponding fitting line is expressed as follows: (x5 ), failure times (x6 ), major overhaul times (x7 ), minor overhaul
times (x8 ), corrosion rate (x9 ), failure rate (x10 ), MTBF (x11 ), crack
y = −8.22x + 3.0 (43) detection results (x12 ), equipment loss (x13 ), production loss (x14 ),
personnel loss (x15 ), maintenance period (x16 ), and environmen-
The 11 and ␣ can be calculated based on the following expressions:
tal loss (x17 ). The output of fuzzy curvelet neural network is total
˛=b (44) maintenance cost of petrochemical plant (Y).
−( a ) The structure of fuzzy neural network is set as follows: the
11 = e b (45)
curvelet transform layer has three input nodes which represent
Based on expressions (43)–(45), the shape and scale parameters major overhaul times, minor overhaul times, and failure rate
can be calculated, which are listed as follows: ␣ = 3.0, 11 = 15.5. respectively. The fuzzifiation layer concludes eight nodes, the fuzzy
The maintenance data of gasoline hydrodesulphurization unit relational layer has fifteen nodes, and the relational layer after
from 1987 to 2016 is collected through visiting the petrochemical fuzzification concludes eight nodes. The output layer has one node
company. The first twenty sets of data are used to train the fuzzy which represents the total maintenance cost of 1 million tons/year
curvelet neural network, and the later ten sets of data are used as gasoline hydrodesulphurization unit. Fig. 3 shows the training iter-
test sample. ation curves of optimization based on wavelet neural network,
The comparative analysis among wavelet neural network, fuzzy fuzzy wavelet neural network and fuzzy curvelet neural network
wavelet neural network (in reference [22]) and fuzzy curvelet neu- respectively. As seen from Fig. 3, the fuzzy curvelet neural net-
ral network is carried out. The optimal parameters of algorithm work based on improved particle swarm algorithm can obtain
are chosen based on orthogonal design for improving the conver- the optimal value, and the fuzzy curvelet neural network based
gence and optimization performances. The scale of particle swarm on improved particle swarm algorithm has quickest convergence
influences the stability of algorithm and optimal efficiency greatly. speed.
c1 and c2 decide influence degree of individual and global histor- The prediction error comparison results of maintenance cost
ical information on trajectory of particle, if c1 and c2 are bigger, and failure rate of 1 million tons/year gasoline hydrodesulphuriza-
the particle can quickly move to the target area, but it is easy to tion unit from 2007 to 2016 based on different method are listed
leave the target area; otherwise if c1 and c2 are smaller, the parti- in Tables 2 and 3 respectively. As seen from Tables 2 and 3, the
cle oscillates in the area far away from the target. ω1 and ω2 are prediction errors of maintenance cost and failure rate of gasoline
used to balance the global and local search abilities. If ω1 and ω2 hydrodesulphurization unit based on fuzzy curvelet neural net-
are smaller, the local search ability of algorithm will be enhanced, work are lest among three methods and the prediction errors based
and the global search ability of algorithm will be reduced accord- on wavelet neural network are largest. The fuzzy curvelet neural
ingly, and the converse is also true. vmax and ε is used to control the network has best prediction ability of maintenance cost and failure
velocity of particle, smaller vmax and ε lead to inadequate search rate of gasoline hydrodesulphurization unit, which can construct
for solution space, and bigger vmax and ε make the particle skip the the most accurate prediction model. Therefore the fuzzy curvelet
optimal solution. neural network is an effective tool for making maintenance deci-
The orthogonal test factors conclude number of particle, sion of 1 million tons/year gasoline hydrodesulphurization unit in
vmax ,c1 ,c1 ,ω1 , ω2 , and ε. And every factor takes four levels, the a petrochemical company in 2017.
factors and levels of orthogonal test are listed in Table 2. The future maintenance cost of 1 million tons/year gasoline
The objective function takes the average convergence algebra, hydrodesulphurization unit from 2017 and 2020 are predicted
which is mean of thirty experiments. The orthogonal table L32 (49 ) based the proposed method, and the corresponding results are
is used to carried out experimental design. This experiment has shown in Fig. 4. As seen from Fig. 4, the maintenance cost reduces
only seven factors, therefore there are two blank columns. The level with time, the main reason is that the advanced maintenance mea-
number filled in blank column, which is not real parameter value. surements are used. In addition, the prediction results can offer
The orthogonal plan is listed in Table 3. favorable theoretical basis of making optimal maintenance plans.
The final analysis results of orthogonal experiment are listed in Four alternative maintenance plans of 1 million tons/year gaso-
Table 4. Where Kij denotes the sum of average convergence algebra line hydrodesulphurization unit in 2017 are made.
B. Zhao et al. / Applied Soft Computing 69 (2018) 203–212 209
The initial position of The velocity range of The position of particle with
particle is selected using as particle is set as best objection function
value is considered as
optimal position p j (t ) . [- vmax ,vmax ].
optimal position of group
The velocity of particle is updated based on expressions (34), (36) and (38)
The position of particle is updated based on expressions (37), (39) and (41).
Yes
No
The loop is terminated.
Maintenance plan 1: the maintenance plan is made based on Maintenance plan 3: the period maintenance is used for 1
risk evaluation of 1 million tons/year gasoline hydrodesulphuriza- million tons/year gasoline hydrodesulphurization unit based on
tion unit, and the possibility of failure for unit can be reduced. The operation time of unit. The regular inspection, status testing,
human error is reduced in operation, and the maintenance per- replacement of vulnerable, fastening and calibration are carried
sonnel should operate according to operation rules. The operation out to ensure normal operation of devices. The potential faults of
state is grasped through regular monitoring of devices. The lubri- devices can be found out, and the petrochemical plant has sufficient
cation and cleaning maintenance measurements are carried out for time to arrange the maintenance plan and prepare the necessary
devices. spare parts.
Maintenance plan 2: the maintenance plan is made centered on Maintenance plan 4: the maintenance is carried out to improve
reliability, the computer technology, monitoring technology, and operating state and reliability of device based on root cause analysis
fault diagnosis technology are used to obtain the operating state of of device failure. Main means conclude part replacement, design
1 million tons/year gasoline hydrodesulphurization unit. Based on improvement, material upgrading and remanufacturing, and the
state data in whole operation cycle, such as monitoring parameters, performance of device can be recovered and improved to eliminate
alarm events, deterioration trend and fault diagnosis of devices, the repeated failures.
maintenance decision is carried out.
210 B. Zhao et al. / Applied Soft Computing 69 (2018) 203–212
Table 3
Orthogonal test plan.
Table 4
Final calculating results of orthogonal experiment.
K1j 368.23 367.84 368.61 367.04 365.41 361.53 360.54 363.43 367.82
K2j 364.56 365.5 365.42 365.99 367.06 358.54 359.52 365.43 365.55
K3j 366.74 366.76 364.76 368.43 365.96 356.43 363.65 362.64 366.07
K4j 369.82 369.43 366.05 366.71 368.52 360.54 361.03 364.87 364.32
The maintenance costs of four maintenance plans are predicted omy of petrochemical plant, and the fuzzy curvelet neural network
based on fuzzy curvelet neural network, and the prediction results is trained by the improved particle swarm algorithm combing the
are listed in Table 4. As seen from Table 4, the second maintenance traditional particle swarm algorithm and bacterial foraging algo-
plans of 1 million tons/year gasoline hydrodesulphurization unit rithm. One million tons/year gasoline hydrodesulphurization unit
has lest total prediction maintenance cost, therefore it is used as in a petrochemical company is used as research object to carry
the final implementation plan. The petrochemical company pre- out maintenance cost prediction, and the following conclusions are
pares two maintenances in June and December respectively, and obtained:
maintenance periods are all set to 20 days, and the minor over-
haul is carried out in other months of 2017. By using fuzzy curvelet
neural network the optimal maintenance plans are confirmed, and (1) The distribution parameters of petrochemical plant main-
the total maintenance cost can be reduced effectively, the optimal tenance are obtained based on the least square method:
maintenance plan not only satisfies the reliability requirement, but ␣ = 3.0, 11 = 15.5. The optimal parameters of improved particle
also saves cost. swarm algorithm are obtained based on orthogonal experi-
ment: vmax = 10,c1 = c2 = 2, ω1 = 0.52, ω2 = 0.64, ε = 0.85.
6. Conclusions (2) The comparative analysis among wavelet neural network, fuzzy
wavelet neural network and fuzzy curvelet neural network is
The maintenance of petrochemical plant is an important task carried out, and results show that the fuzzy curvelet neural net-
of ensuring the safety and reliability of it, to improve maintenance work based on improved particle swarm algorithm has quickest
decision prediction effect of petrochemical plant, the fuzzy theory, convergence speed.
the curvelet transform and artificial neural network are combined (3) The fuzzy curvelet neural network has best prediction ability of
to establish the fuzzy curvelet neural network. The maintenance maintenance cost and failure rate of gasoline hydrodesulphur-
cost prediction model of petrochemical plant is constructed, and ization unit, which can construct the most accurate prediction
the basic structure of fuzzy curvelet neural network is designed. model.
The major overhaul times, the minor overhaul times and failure rate (4) The maintenance cost reduces with time, the main reason is that
are used as input variables by considering the reliability and econ- the advanced maintenance measurements are used. In addition,
B. Zhao et al. / Applied Soft Computing 69 (2018) 203–212 211
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