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  • Probabilistic Programming: A Review For Environmental Modellers

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    Moni Ra
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    Probabilistic programming languages can expedite the environmental model development process by implementing models, efficiently inferring their parameters, and generating probabilistic predictions using general-purpose methods. This review article explains how probabilistic programming, which combines Bayesian statistics, machine learning, and process-based modelling, can accelerate model development and allow for statistical inference with more complicated models and larger datasets than previously. It also discusses challenges and provides guidance for environmental modelers on determining if probabilistic programming could improve their analyses.

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    Probabilistic programming languages can expedite the environmental model development process by implementing models, efficiently inferring their parameters, and generating probabilistic predictions using general-purpose methods. This review article explains how probabilistic programming, which combines Bayesian statistics, machine learning, and process-based modelling, can accelerate model development and allow for statistical inference with more complicated models and larger datasets than previously. It also discusses challenges and provides guidance for environmental modelers on determining if probabilistic programming could improve their analyses.

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    9 views1 page

    Probabilistic Programming: A Review For Environmental Modellers

    Uploaded by

    Moni Ra
    Probabilistic programming languages can expedite the environmental model development process by implementing models, efficiently inferring their parameters, and generating probabilistic predictions using general-purpose methods. This review article explains how probabilistic programming, which combines Bayesian statistics, machine learning, and process-based modelling, can accelerate model development and allow for statistical inference with more complicated models and larger datasets than previously. It also discusses challenges and provides guidance for environmental modelers on determining if probabilistic programming could improve their analyses.

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    PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMMING: A REVIEW FOR

    ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLERS

    Abstract
    The development process for an environmental model involves
    multiple iterations of a planning-implementation-assessment cycle.
    Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are designed to expedite this process
    with general-purpose methods for implementing models, efficiently inferring
    their parameters, and generating probabilistic predictions. Probabilistic
    programming exists at the intersection of Bayesian statistics, machine learning,
    and process-based modelling and therefore can be of value to the environmental
    modelling community. In this review article, we explain how it can be used to
    accelerate model development and allow for statistical inference using more
    complicated models and larger data sets than previously possible. Specific
    challenges and limitations to employing such frameworks are also raised. We
    provide guidance to help modellers decide whether incorporating probabilistic
    programming in their work may improve the efficiency and quality of their
    analyses.

    Keywords: Bayesian statistics, Parameter estimation, Uncertainty


    quantification, Probabilistic programming

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