Overview of the MAC DSA Framework

Market-access country (MAC) public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) is a risk-based tool.
See Figure 1, to the right, extracted from the Guidance Note. Guidance Note
Depth of analysis depends on the extent of vulnerabilities or use of Fund resources.
Higher Scrutiny - for exceptional access, high debt-burden, or high-vulnerability countries:
Analysis includes the basic DSA, standard alternative scenarios, the outcome of all modules in this
template, the heat map and a write-up.
Lower Scrutiny - for all other countries:
● Analysis includes the basic DSA and standard alternative scenarios, as well as contingent
liabilities shock when relevant. All other modules are optional. Write-up is optional.
● As debt vulnerabilities may emerge at lower debt levels than the ones suggested in Figure 1,
some "Lower Scrutiny" countries may be reclassified as "Higher Scrutiny". Conversely, some
countries with high gross debt burden may be treated as "Lower Scrutiny". See Guidance Note
for details on possible reclassification.

Components of the DSA:

1 - Basic DSA Module (for all MACs)
● This includes baseline and standard alternative scenarios.
● Where relevant, the basic DSA may also include a contingent liabilities shock and customized
scenarios.
2 - Risk Identification and Analysis Modules (for Higher Scrutiny countries)
● Vulnerabilities are identified through four different modules (a-d):
a - Realism of baseline scenario
b - Vulnerability of debt profile
c - Sensitivity to macro-fiscal risks
d - Contingent liabilities
3 - Risk Reporting Module (for Higher Scrutiny countries)
● Heat Map
● Fan Charts
● Write-Up
Instructions for the Input
1. Go to Sheet "Input 1 - Basics"
Populate the yellow-shaded cells.
1.a. Select country from the drop-down menu.
1.b. Is the country seeking or does it currently have exceptional access to Fund resources?
Use the drop-down menu to answer the question. (Select "Yes" for countries under PPM after exceptional access.)
1.c. Select the definition of "public sector" that is covered by the fiscal data that will be entered.
1.d. Select whether the definition of "public sector" includes guarantees and, if it does, provide a description of these guarantees.
1.e. Select whether you wish to use complementary analyses of net debt and/or debt-to-potential GDP.
If selected, the complementary analysis results will be presented in: (i) the basic DSA table in "Output - Basic1" (line 12); and (ii) the basic DSA debt-to-GDP c
"Output - Basic2." The rest of the DSA outputs will remain unchanged.
1.f. Select first year of projection.
1.g. Enter estimate of REER overvaluation from the latest exchange rate assessment.
This is an input for the calibration of the exchange rate shock in the macro-fiscal risks module.
1.h. Enter the latest risk ratings (Moody's, S&P and Fitch) using drop-down menus.
1.i. Enter market spread information in the appropriate cells. Use the drop-down menu to define "bond spread."
EMs may use EMBI Global spreads while AEs may use bond spreads over US or German bonds at similar maturity.
1.j. Enter the scale of the macroeconomic and fiscal variables that will be entered in "Input 2 - Data" (e.g., millions, billions).
2. Go to Sheet "Input 2 - Data"
Populate the yellow-shaded cells.
2.a. Ensure that the fiscal series are consistent with the definition of the public sector selected in Step 1.
2.b. Ensure that data are consistent with the scales and units specified in columns A and B.
Note that, unless otherwise specified, all series should be denominated in local currency units (LCU), including interest on foreign-currency denominated deb
3. Go to Sheet "Input 3 - Debt and Banking"
Populate the yellow-shaded cells.
3.a. Please provide as much data as available. This information is used to generate a historical perspective on the maturity and currency composition of debt (see
in "Output - Basic"). This input sheet distinguishes between:
(i) domestic and external debt (residency criterion);
(ii) local-currency and foreign-currency denominated debt;
(iii) short-term and long-term debt.
3.b.
Please provide historical data on public guarantees broken down by currency; guarantees are assumed to remain constant in LCU terms at the last entered va
over the projection horizon. This information is used to compute the country's average nominal interest rate on debt.
3.c. Please provide information on the banking sector.
Private sector credit and loan-to-deposit ratio are used to determine potential contingent liabilities arising from the banking sector.
Bank gross foreign assets are used for the calibration of the size of the contingent liability shock.
4. Go to Sheet "Input 4 - Forecast"
Populate the yellow-shaded cells.
4.a. "Input 4 - Forecast" is divided into two basic parts:
(i) calculation of gross financing needs based on the fiscal assumptions;
(ii) financing assumptions.
4.b. Gross financing assumptions include debt service on the outstanding stock of debt (existing debt).
This includes interest payments on existing domestic- and foreign-currency denominated debt (rows 24 and 25) as well as amortization payments (rows 27 an

Data on debt service of existing debt should preferably come from the fiscal files or authorities' debt management office.
They may also be computed from a loan-by-loan breakdown of outstanding debt available from databases like Bloomberg, Datastream, Dealogic, BEL etc.

The breakdown between domestic- and foreign-currency denominated debt is important for capturing exchange rate risks.
The breakdown between existing and new debt (debt to be issued over the projection period) is important for capturing roll-over risks and interest rate risks.

4.c. Gross financing needs of the government are calculated automatically in row 37 (including debt service on new debt).
After adjusting for possible one-off financing factors (change in arrears, debt relief, privatization/drawdown of deposits and any other factors specified) in row
43, the template calculates the gross financing needs to be met by the issuance of new debt (row 45).
4.d. The template allows a wide range of debt instruments to finance the government, which can be differentiated by interest rate, grace period, maturity, curren
residency.
Not all debt instruments in the template need to be filled in. In principle, a single summary instrument could be used as an approximation.
Ensure that the terms and conditions of new debt are appropriate (cells J54-R89):
(i) Use the drop-down menu to select whether payments are annual or semi-annual (column J).
(ii) Fill in grace period and maturity (columns K and L) for each instrument. If grace is set equal to maturity, the template calculates amortization as a sin
payment at maturity (bullet bond).
(iii) Columns M-R determine the interest rate on new issuances; the interest rate can vary by instrument as well as by year of issuance.
Lines marked "ZERO-COUPON BOND" should be used only for such instruments to ensure the appropriate calculations of interest and amortization payments

4.e. By construction, residual financing needs will be met by the issuance of domestic short-term debt (row 89). The use of this line should be minimized as much
possible. Because this residual too represents debt issuance, it should not be allowed to become negative; please use row 42 or 43 to represent any accumul
deposits arising from debt issuance in excess of projected financing needs.
5. Go to Sheet "Input 5 - Scenario Design"
Populate the yellow-shaded cells:
5.a. Required shocks for scenario analysis depend on the country's level of scrutiny (see the Overview of the Framework, and the Guidance Note).
Based on information regarding debt burden and exceptional access status provided in "Input 1 - Basics," the template automatically determines the level of
scrutiny for the country (cell J7).
5.b. If the country is reclassified from Lower to Higher Scrutiny (or vice versa) because of risk-mitigating or risk-amplifying factors, the final scrutiny classification
specified in cell J8. (See Guidance Note for details on possible reclassification.)
5.c. Based on the level of scrutiny, required shocks are denoted in cells K13-K20, along with their respective descriptions in column M.
The template builds in interactions among shock variables (explained in column M). Sizes of shocks and interactions can be customized (see 5.g. below).
Additional shocks (if relevant), whether they are required, and their descriptions can be customized in rows 23-27.
5.d. As discussed in the Guidance Note, the MAC DSA framework includes a number of standardized alternative scenarios as well as a number of stress tests.
Standardized alternative scenarios are a historical scenario and a constant primary balance scenario (rows 13-14).
The macro-fiscal risk module includes five stress tests (rows 16-20):
(i) primary balance shock;
(ii) real GDP growth shock;
(iii) interest rate shock;
(iv) exchange rate shock;
(v) combined shock.
5.e. The financial sector contingent liability stress test is automatically triggered by developments in private sector credit growth and loan-to-deposit ratios.
If the shock was not triggered but needs to be included due other vulnerabilities not identified by the default indicators or their benchmarks, users can select
from the yellow-shaded drop-down menu (cell J23) to manually trigger the contingent liability stress test.

5.f. The template allows for two additional customized scenarios (including contingent liability shocks from non-financial sectors).
To run one or two customized shocks, select "Yes" from the drop-down menus in cells J25 and/or J27.
Users have the option to name the customized shocks in cells T25 and T27, which will appear in output tables and charts.
5.g. All possible shock scenarios are shown under Shock Assumptions (E32-J150), regardless of whether the shock is required.
Interactions between the variables are described in column B. If applicable, users may tailor the sizes of shocks and interactions in the yellow-shaded cells un
Shock Assumptions (column B), to reflect country-specific information.
For example, under the primary balance shock scenario, the revenue-to-GDP ratio is assumed to remain unchanged compared to the baseline and interest ra
new debt increases by 25 bps per 1 percent of GDP deterioration in the primary balance. But users may wish to increase the impact on interest rate of a
deterioration in the primary balance (cell B50), and include impact on real GDP growth (cells F43-J43).

6. Go to Sheet "Fan Chart"

6.a. Fan charts are generated based on the calculations of historical averages, variances and covariances of relevant macroeconomic variables: real GDP growth,
effective real interest rate, primary balance and the change in real exchange rate.
6.b. By default, averages, variances and covariances are calculated from the same historical data as the rest of the DSA (the last 11 years). For better results, users
wish to extend the historical period in order to better capture country-specific circumstances by populating the yellow-shaded cells not covered in the defaul
period.

6.c. Click on the blue button to generate the fan chart. Individual shocks can be turned off, using cells B42-B45, to analyze the source of uncertainty. (Note: macro
be enabled.)
6.d. To generate asymmetric fan charts, users may place restrictions on the magnitude of positive shocks in cells D42-D45.
e basic DSA debt-to-GDP chart in

currency denominated debt.

y composition of debt (see graphs

erms at the last entered value

tion payments (rows 27 and 28).

eam, Dealogic, BEL etc.

isks and interest rate risks.

er factors specified) in rows 39-

e period, maturity, currency and

mation.

lates amortization as a single

ssuance.
nd amortization payments.

uld be minimized as much as

to represent any accumulation of
 nce Note).
ly determines the level of

nal scrutiny classification can be

ized (see 5.g. below).

umber of stress tests.

an-to-deposit ratios.
nchmarks, users can select "Yes"

the yellow-shaded cells under

he baseline and interest rate on

t on interest rate of a
riables: real GDP growth,

s). For better results, users may

not covered in the default

uncertainty. (Note: macros must

Basic Data Input
Select country Debtopia
IFS Code 999
Emerging Market (EM) or Advanced Economy (AE) EM
Exceptional Access? No
Definition of the public sector general government
Includes public guarantees? No

Use of complementary analysis?

Net debt-to-GDP? No
Gross debt-to-potential GDP? No
First year of projection 2013
Estimate of REER overvaluation (in percent) 5.00%
Sovereign risk rating
Latest information, available as of… 30-Aug-13
Foreign currency National currency
Moody's Baa2 Baa2
S&Ps BBB BBB
Fitch BBB+ BBB+
Market information
Latest information, available as of… 30-Aug-13
5Y CDS (basis points) 500
Market perception or bond spread, defined as:
EMBIG (bp) 400
Historical information over the last 3 months… 01-Jun-13 through 30-Aug-13
Average EMBIG (bp) 356

Scale of macroeconomic and fiscal variables

Scale Billions
1 - Please fill the yellow-shaded cells. All data should be entered in local currency units (LCU)
unless otherwise specified.

Historical Debt Data 2001

Stock of total public debt Billions LCU 334.2

Short-term debt 1/ Billions LCU 178.9

Long-term debt 2/ Billions LCU 155.3
Denominated in local currency Billions LCU 218.2

Denominated in foreign currency Billions LCU 116.1

Domestic debt (held by residents) 3/ Billions LCU

External debt (held by non-residents) 3/ Billions LCU

Banking Sector Data 2001

Banking system assets (excluding claims on government) Percent of GDP
Private sector credit Percent of GDP
Bank gross foreign assets Percent of GDP
Loan-to-deposit ratio Ratio (%)
Nominal GDP Billions LCU 583.4

1/ Maturity one year or less, based on original maturity.

2/ Maturity of more than one year.
3/ Domestic and external debt based on residency criterion.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
357.7 321.4 333.4 374.4 400.1 417.0 495.9 642.5 735.3 872.3

199.9 187.3 188.6 209.4 219.3 223.9 266.3 356.9 437.8 499.2
157.8 134.1 144.8 165.1 180.8 193.1 229.6 285.6 297.6 373.1
201.9 235.3 238.3 248.6 255.0 309.3 340.0 400.6 378.8 413.1

155.7 86.0 95.0 125.8 145.0 107.8 155.9 241.9 356.5 459.2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

40.0 46.2 52.4

650.6 736.4 840.7 951.3 1063.2 1204.7 1399.1 1577.6 1764.3 1926.6
 2012 2013
1063.5

585.8
477.7
386.9

676.6

501.3
562.2

2012
67.9
56.4
11.5
142%
2104.4
1 - Please fill the yellow-shaded cells in rows 24, 25, 27, 28 with debt service forecast (principal and interest payme
entered in local currency units (LCU), unless otherwise specified. Data on debt service of existing debt may be obta
by-loan breakdown of outstanding debt obtained from databases like Bloomberg, Datastream, BEL, etc.
2 - Distribute the financing needs (identified in row 45) as new debts in yellow-shaded cells in rows 54-87.
3 - Please enter the terms and conditions of new debt in columns J-R. Note that new debt is assumed to be disbur
4 - Residual financing need is assumed to be filled by domestic short-term debt issuance (row 89). Please minimize
interest/amortization payments in the year of disbursement. Because this residual too represents debt issuance, i
represent any accumulation of deposits arising from debt issuance in excess of projected financing needs.

Macro and Debt Service Forecast

GDP at constant prices (level) in LCU
GDP deflator in LCU
Nominal GDP in LCU
Nominal exchange rate -- average (LCU/USD)
Nominal exchange rate -- end of period (LCU/USD)
Public sector non-interest revenues and grants
Public sector interest revenue
Public sector non-interest expenditures
Interest expenditures on EXISTING debt denominated in local currency
Interest expenditures on EXISTING debt denominated in foreign currency
Principal payments on EXISTING debt denominated in local currency
Principal payments on EXISTING debt denominated in foreign currency
Recognition of implicit contingent liability
Interest expenditures on NEW debt denominated in local currency
Interest expenditures on NEW debt denominated in foreign currency
Principal payments on NEW debt denominated in local currency
Principal payments on NEW debt denominated in foreign currency
Gross financing requirements
Change in domestic arrears (+ reduces financing needs)
Change in external arrears (+ reduces financing needs)
Debt relief (+ reduces financing needs)
Please specify (1) (e.g., privatization receipts) (+ reduces financing needs)
Please specify (2) (e.g., other debt flows) (+ increases financing needs)
Financing needs to be filled with new issuance
Issuance of New Debt to Fill Fiscal Needs
Total New Debt Issuance (domestic and external)
New Issuance of Domestic Debt (new debt) 1/
Short-term debt 2/
Denominated in local currency
Denominated in foreign currency
Long-term debt 3/
Denominated in local currency
Type 1
Type 2
Type 3
Type 4
ZERO-COUPON BOND
Denominated in foreign currency
Type 6
Type 7
Type 8
Type 9
ZERO-COUPON BOND
New Issuance of External Debt (new debt) 1/
Short-term debt 2/
Denominated in local currency
Denominated in foreign currency
Long-term debt 3/
Denominated in local currency
Type 11
Type 12
Type 13
Type 14
ZERO-COUPON BOND
Denominated in foreign currency
Type 16
Type 17
Type 18
Type 19
ZERO-COUPON BOND
Domestic Residual Financing (annual payments, no interest or amortization in current year)
1/ Domestic and external debt based on residency criterion.
2/ Maturity of one year or less, based on original maturity.
3/ Maturity of more than one year.
(principal and interest payments) on existing debt, i.e., disbursed debt that is outstanding. Values should be
of existing debt may be obtained from authorities' debt management office or computed based on a loan-
astream, BEL, etc.
d cells in rows 54-87.
debt is assumed to be disbursed at the beginning of the year.
ce (row 89). Please minimize this residual as a source of financing as it does not assume any
o represents debt issuance, it should not be allowed to become negative; please use row 42 or 43 to
ted financing needs.

First Year of
projection
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Billions LCU 745.2 775.0 806.1 838.3 871.8

Index 308.4 323.8 338.3 351.9 366.0
Billions LCU 2,298.0 2,509.4 2,727.2 2,949.8 3,190.5
LCU/USD 37.591 36.284 35.019 33.818 32.635
LCU/USD 37.591 36.284 35.019 33.818 32.635
Billions LCU 792.8 878.3 954.5 1,032.4 1,116.7
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 842.8 919.7 985.9 1,058.7 1,149.7
Billions LCU 32.3 33.7 30.4 28.6 32.3
Billions LCU 37.1 37.7 32.5 29.6 27.1
Billions LCU 125.5 36.5 49.7 49.3 25.6
Billions LCU 411.5 35.3 35.4 45.3 45.4
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 8.1 16.1 22.8 29.6 37.2
Billions LCU 4.5 9.2 13.6 18.2 22.5
Billions LCU 0.0 224.0 292.1 302.3 313.7
Billions LCU 0.0 328.2 294.4 294.5 294.3
Billions LCU 669.0 762.1 802.3 823.7 831.3
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 20.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 664.0 757.1 797.3 818.7 811.3
 First Year of
projection
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Billions LCU 660.0 755.0 795.0 815.0 810.0

Billions LCU 260.0 350.0 390.0 410.0 420.0
Billions LCU 220.0 290.0 300.0 310.0 320.0
Billions LCU 220.0 290.0 300.0 310.0 320.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 40.0 60.0 90.0 100.0 100.0
Billions LCU 40.0 60.0 90.0 100.0 100.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 40.0 60.0 90.0 100.0 100.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 400.0 405.0 405.0 405.0 390.0
Billions LCU 340.0 305.0 305.0 305.0 300.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 340.0 305.0 305.0 305.0 300.0
Billions LCU 60.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 90.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 60.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 90.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 60.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 90.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billions LCU 4.00000 2.09740 2.30923 3.74105 1.26327
 2018

906.7
380.6
3,450.8
31.494
31.489
1,207.8
0.0
1,242.5
21.8
12.4
5.9
34.4
0.0
44.8
26.3
361.3
339.8
881.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.0
0.0
871.6
2018

Semi-annual or Grace Maturity Interest Rate on debt

annual payments period issued in 2013

870.0
460.0 Assumption: all new
340.0 domestic issuance is
denominated in local
340.0 currency. Semi-annual 1 1 5.0%
0.0 Semi-annual 1 1 5.0%
120.0
120.0
0.0 Annual 2 2 2.6%
0.0 Annual 3 3 2.6%
120.0 Annual 5 5 8.0%
0.0 Annual 10 10 4.6%
0.0 3 3 12.0%
0.0
0.0 Annual 2 2 4.0%
0.0 Annual 3 3 4.0%
0.0 Annual 5 5 4.0%
0.0 Annual 10 10 4.0%
0.0 3 3 6.0%
410.0 Assumption: all new
external debt is
310.0 denominated in
0.0 foreign currency Semi-annual 1 1 7.0%
310.0 Semi-annual 1 1 2.0%
100.0
0.0
0.0 Annual 2 2 10.0%
0.0 Annual 3 3 10.5%
0.0 Annual 5 5 11.0%
0.0 Annual 10 10 11.5%
0.0 3 3 12.0%
100.0
0.0 Annual 2 2 4.0%
0.0 Annual 3 3 4.5%
100.0 Annual 5 5 5.0%
0.0 Annual 10 10 5.5%
0.0 3 3 6.0%
1.60173 1 1 3.0%
Interest Rate on Interest Rate on Interest Rate on Interest Rate on Interest Rate on
debt issued in debt issued in debt issued in debt issued in debt issued in
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6%

2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6%
8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
4.8% 5.1% 5.2% 5.3% 5.3%
12.5% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0%

4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
6.5% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

7.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%

2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

10.5% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%

11.0% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%
11.5% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
12.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%
12.5% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0%

4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

5.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
6.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
6.5% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
3.3% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Classification and Outputs

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Public Gross Debt > 50 percent of GDP? 50.54 50.96 51.08 50.76 50.41 49.92 49.13 Yes
Public Gross Financing Needs > 10 percent of GDP? 23.26 29.11 30.37 29.42 27.93 26.05 25.55 Yes
Exceptional Access? No
Scrutiny classification based on debt burden indicators and exceptional access: Higher scrutiny
Final scrutiny classification taking into account risk-amplifying or risk-mitigating factors, where relevant: Higher scrutiny
Potential Indicators for Additional Analysis in Lower Scrutiny Countries
Maximum 3-year cumulative primary balance adjustment 2.30 > 2 percent of GDP? Yes
Coefficient of variation of growth 0.22 > 1 unit? No
Bond yield spreads or EMBI global spreads 356 > 600 basis points No
External financing requirements 23 > 15 percent of GDP Yes
Public debt held by non-residents 53 > 45 share of total Yes
Public debt in foreign currency 64 > 60 share of total Yes
Annual change in the share of short-term public debt at original maturity -2.1 > 1 share of total No

Instructions for the Output

1. Go to Sheets "Output - Basic 1" and Output - Basic 2"
The Basic DSA output should be included in all DSAs. The Basic DSA is automatically produced in the MAC DSA template. It includes:
(i) selected economic indicators under the baseline scenario, including the evolution of debt burden indicators;
(ii) latest market indicators, such as risk rating, EMBI or bond spreads and CDS spreads;
(iii) the debt dynamics under the baseline scenario, which presents the contribution of different factors to the evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio;
(iv) the evolution of the maturity structure (short-term vs. medium and long term debt) as well as the currency composition of public debt (domestic vs. foreign-currency-
denominated debt);
(v) a comparison of the evolution of debt burden indicators under the baseline and standardized stress tests.
For Lower Scrutiny countries, when relevant, a contingent liability shock and customized scenarios will also be plotted in addition to standardized stress tests.

If optional complementary analyses (net debt-to-GDP and/or debt to potential GDP) are selected in "Input 1 - Basics", these results will be presented in:
(i) the selected economic indicators table, and in (v) the debt-to-GDP graph.

2. Go to Sheet "Output - Realism"

This sheet includes the presentation of realism of baseline assumptions.
2.a. The default comparator group for Forecast Track Record is all market access countries (MACs).
To use program-only or surveillance-only MACs as the comparator groups, please select from the drop-down menu on Sheet "Output - Realism" (cell B9).
2.b. The boom-bust analysis tool is triggered automatically when the output gap has been positive for at least 3 years, or the 3-year cumulative change in credit-to-GDP ratio
exceeds 15 percentage points for Emerging Markets and 30 percentage points for Advanced Economies. If the country does not meet either of these criteria, the graph will not
generate.

3. Go to Sheet "Output - Shocks"

This sheet includes the results of the macro-fiscal and other stress tests.
For Higher Scrutiny countries and where relevant, a contingent liability shock and customized scenarios will be plotted here instead of in the Basic DSA.

4. Go to Sheet "Output - Heat Map"

This sheet includes the presentation of overall risk assessment: heat map, fan charts, and debt profile vulnerabilities.
 Debtopia Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) - Baseline Scenario
(in percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated)

Debt, Economic and Market Indicators 1/

Actual Projections As of August 30, 2013

2002-2010 2/
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Sovereign Spreads
Nominal gross public debt 40.9 45.3 50.5 51.0 51.1 50.8 50.4 49.9 49.1 Bond Spread (bp) 3/ 400

Public gross financing needs 35.2 22.0 23.3 29.1 30.4 29.4 27.9 26.1 25.5 5Y CDS (bp) 500

Real GDP growth (in percent) 5.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Ratings Foreign Local
Inflation (GDP deflator, in percent) 7.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 Moody's Baa2 Baa2
Nominal GDP growth (in percent) 13.1 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 8.7 8.2 8.2 8.2 S&Ps BBB BBB
Effective interest rate (in percent) 4/ 11.2 9.2 7.8 7.7 8.3 7.8 7.7 8.0 6.6 Fitch BBB+ BBB+

Contribution to Changes in Public Debt

Actual Projections
2002-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 cumulative debt-stabilizing
Change in gross public sector debt -1.7 3.6 5.3 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -1.4 primary
Identified debt-creating flows -0.7 3.4 4.0 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 balance 9/
Primary deficit 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 7.9 -1.8
Primary (noninterest) revenue and gr33.7 34.3 34.0 34.5 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 209.5
Primary (noninterest) expenditure 34.8 36.5 36.8 36.7 36.7 36.2 35.9 36.0 36.0 217.4
Automatic debt dynamics 5/ -1.3 1.3 1.3 -1.6 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.5 -8.0
Interest rate/growth differential 6/ -0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -2.6
Of which: real interest rate 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.1 8.6
Of which: real GDP growth -2.1 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8 -11.2
Exchange rate depreciation 7/ -0.6 1.2 1.9 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -5.4
Other identified debt-creating flows -0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -1.7
Please specify (1) (e.g., privatizat -0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -1.7
Contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Please specify (2) (e.g., other debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Residual, including asset changes 8/ -1.1 0.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3

10 20
projection
Debt-Creating Flows
(in percent of GDP)
5 15

10
0

5
-5
0

-10
-5

-15 -10

-20 -15
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 cumulative

Residual Other debt-creating flows Exchange rate depreciation Real interest rate Real GDP growth
Primary deficit Change in gross public sector debt

Source: IMF staff.

1/ Public sector is defined as general government.
2/ Based on available data.
3/ EMBIG (bp).
4/ Defined as interest payments divided by debt stock (excluding guarantees) at the end of previous year.
5/ Derived as [r - π(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+π+gπ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = effective nominal interest rate; π = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate;
a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
6/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the numerator in footnote 5 as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -g.
7/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the numerator in footnote 5 as ae(1+r).
8/ Includes asset changes and interest revenues (if any). For projections, includes exchange rate changes during the projection period.
9/ Assumes that key variables (real GDP growth, real interest rate, and other identified debt-creating flows) remain at the level of the last projection year.
 Debtopia Public DSA - Composition of Public Debt and Alternative Scenarios

Composition of Public Debt

By Maturity By Currency
(in percent of GDP) (in percent of GDP)
60 60
Medium and long- Local currency-denominated
term Foreign currency-denominated
50 50

40 40

30 30
projection
20 20
projection

10 10

0 0

Alternative Scenarios
Baseline Historical Constant Primary Balance

Gross Nominal Public Debt 1/ Public Gross Financing Needs

(in percent of GDP) (in percent of GDP)
56 35

54 30
52
25
50
20
48
15
46
projection 10 projection
44

42 5

40 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Underlying Assumptions
(in percent)
Baseline Scenario 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Historical Scenario 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real GDP growth 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Real GDP growth 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Inflation 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 Inflation 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0
Primary Balance -2.2 -1.7 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 Primary Balance -2.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
Effective interest rate 7.7 8.3 7.8 7.7 8.0 6.6 Effective interest rate 7.7 8.3 8.0 7.9 8.3 6.9
Constant Primary Balance Scenario
Real GDP growth 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Inflation 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0
Primary Balance -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2
Effective interest rate 7.7 8.3 7.7 7.5 7.8 6.4

Source: IMF staff.

 Debtopia Public DSA - Realism of Baseline Assumptions
Forecast Track Record, versus all countries
Real GDP Growth Primary Balance Inflation (Deflator)
(in percent, actual-projection) (in percent of GDP, actual-projection) (in percent, actual-projection)
Debtopia median forecast error, 2004-2012: 0.40 Debtopia median forecast error, 2004-2012: 0.05 Debtopia median forecast error, 2004-2012: 2.59
Has a percentile rank of: 57% Has a percentile rank of: 56% Has a percentile rank of: 67%
6 4 10
pessimisti

4 2 8
2 6
0
c

0 4
-2
-2 2
Distribution of Distribution of
Distribution of -4
optimistic

-4 forecast errors: 1/ 0 forecast errors: 1/

forecast errors: 1/
-6
-6 Interquartile range (25-75) -2
Interquartile range (25-75) Interquartile range (25-75)
-8 -8 Distribution of forecast errors: -4
Distribution of forecast errors: Median Distribution of forecast errors:
-10 -10 -6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year 2/ Year 2/ Year 2/

Assessing the Realism of Projected Fiscal Adjustment Boom-Bust Analysis 3/

3-Year Adjustment in Cyclically-Adjusted 3-Year Average Level of Cyclically-Adjusted
Real GDP growth
Primary Balance (CAPB) Primary Balance (CAPB) (in percent)
(Percent of GDP) (Percent of GDP)
75th
14 12 10
Distribution 4/ 3-year CAPB adjustment Distribution 4/ 3-year average CAPB level
12 Debtopia greater than 3 percent of Debtopia greater than 3.5 percent of 8
10
has a percentile GDP in approx. top quartile has a percentile GDP in approx. top quartile
6
10 rank of 26% rank of 31%
8
4
8
6 2
6 Boom-bust
4 0 inter-quartile
4 range around
-2
2 crisis events (t)
2
-4
0 0
-6
More

More
Less

-1
-4
-3
-2

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Less

-3

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-4

-2
-1

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

Source : IMF Staff.

1/ Plotted distribution includes all countries, percentile rank refers to all countries.
2/ Projections made in the spring WEO vintage of the preceding year.
3/ Debtopia has had a cumulative increase in private sector credit of 16 percent of GDP, 2009-2012. For Debtopia, t corresponds to 2013; for the distribution, t corresponds to the first year of the crisis.
4/ Data cover annual obervations from 1990 to 2011 for advanced and emerging economies with debt greater than 60 percent of GDP. Percent of sample on vertical axis.
 Debtopia Public DSA - Stress Tests

Macro-Fiscal Stress Tests

Baseline Primary Balance Shock Real Interest Rate Shock

Real GDP Growth Shock Real Exchange Rate Shock

Gross Nominal Public Debt Gross Nominal Public Debt Public Gross Financing Needs
(in percent of GDP) (in percent of Revenue) (in percent of GDP)
55 155 35
54
30
53 150
25
52
145 20
51
50 15
140
49
10
48 135
5
47
46 130 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Additional Stress Tests

Baseline Combined Macro-Fiscal Shock Contingent Liability Shock

Gross Nominal Public Debt Gross Nominal Public Debt Public Gross Financing Needs
(in percent of GDP) (in percent of Revenue) (in percent of GDP)
70 180 40

60 160 35
140
50 30
120
25
40 100
20
30 80
15
60
20
40 10
10 5
20
0 0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Underlying Assumptions
(in percent)
Primary Balance Shock 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP Growth Shock 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real GDP growth 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Real GDP growth 4.0 2.8 2.8 4.0 4.0 4.0
Inflation 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 Inflation 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0
Primary balance -2.2 -2.1 -1.6 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 Primary balance -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0
Effective interest rate 7.7 8.3 7.7 7.6 8.0 6.6 Effective interest rate 7.7 8.3 7.7 7.6 7.9 6.6
Real Interest Rate Shock Real Exchange Rate Shock
Real GDP growth 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Real GDP growth 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Inflation 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 Inflation 5.0 9.4 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0
Primary balance -2.2 -1.7 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 Primary balance -2.2 -1.7 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0
Effective interest rate 7.7 8.3 8.5 8.6 9.1 7.8 Effective interest rate 7.7 9.0 7.7 7.6 7.9 6.5
Combined Shock Contingent Liability Shock
Real GDP growth 4.0 2.8 2.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 Real GDP growth 4.0 2.8 2.8 4.0 4.0 4.0
Inflation 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 Inflation 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0
Primary balance -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 Primary balance -2.2 -8.4 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0
Effective interest rate 7.7 9.0 8.4 8.4 8.9 7.7 Effective interest rate 7.7 9.1 7.8 7.4 7.7 6.5

Source: IMF staff.

 Debtopia Public DSA Risk Assessment
Heat Map

Debt level 1/ Real GDP Primary Real Interest Exchange Rate Contingent
Growth Shock Balance Shock Rate Shock Shock Liability shock

Real GDP Primary Real Interest Exchange Rate Contingent

Gross financing needs 2/
Growth Shock Balance Shock Rate Shock Shock Liability Shock

External Change in the Public Debt Foreign

Market
Debt profile 3/ Financing Share of Short- Held by Non- Currency
Perception
Requirements Term Debt Residents Debt

Evolution of Predictive Densities of Gross Nominal Public Debt

(in percent of GDP)
Baseline Percentiles: 75th-90th 50th-75th 25th-75th 10th-25th Row 42

Symmetric Distribution Restricted (Asymmetric) Distribution

70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30
Restrictions on upside shocks:
20 20 no restriction on the growth rate shock
no restriction on the interest rate shock
10 10 no restriction on the primary balance shock
no restriction on the exchange rate shock
0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Debt Profile Vulnerabilities

(Indicators vis-à-vis risk assessment benchmarks, in 2012)
Debtopia Lower early warning Upper early warning

1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3

Annual Change in
External Financing Public Debt Held Public Debt in
Bond spread Short-Term Public
Requirement by Non-Residents Foreign Currency
Debt
(in basis points) 4/ (in percent of GDP) 5/ (in percent of total) (in percent of total) (in percent of total)

Source: IMF staff.

1/ The cell is highlighted in green if debt burden benchmark of 70% is not exceeded under the specific shock or baseline, yellow if exceeded under specific shock but not
baseline, red if benchmark is exceeded under baseline, white if stress test is not relevant.
2/ The cell is highlighted in green if gross financing needs benchmark of 15% is not exceeded under the specific shock or baseline, yellow if exceeded under specific shock
but not baseline, red if benchmark is exceeded under baseline, white if stress test is not relevant.

3/ The cell is highlighted in green if country value is less than the lower risk-assessment benchmark, red if country value exceeds the upper risk-assessment benchmark,
yellow if country value is between the lower and upper risk-assessment benchmarks. If data are unavailable or indicator is not relevant, cell is white.
Lower and upper risk-assessment benchmarks are:

200 and 600 basis points for bond spreads; 5 and 15 percent of GDP for external financing requirement; 0.5 and 1 percent for change in the share of short-term debt; 15
and 45 percent for the public debt held by non-residents; and 20 and 60 percent for the share of foreign-currency denominated debt.
4/ EMBIG (bp), an average over the last 3 months, 01-Jun-13 through 30-Aug-13.
5/ External financing requirement is defined as the sum of current account deficit, amortization of medium and long-term total external debt, and short-term total external
debt at the end of previous period.