How many years do you have left to live (probably)?

What are they chances you will die this year? What are the chances you will have at least
another 50 years to live? Statistics provides us the concepts like probability to answer questions
like these. To explore probability, I designed an interactive data visualization that uses
animation to help students answer the question ​When will you die?

My learning design is adapted from Nathan Yau’s visualization from the article ​Years You Have
Left to Live, Probably​. In Nathan’s visualization, the probability of living is represented along the
x axis from 0 to 100%. Age in years is represented along the y axis from birth to 110 years old.
A line graph plots the relationship between probability and age, which begins trending down
around 55 years old. Each time the simulation runs, an animated circle travels along the line
graph until it “dies” by dropping down from the line graph to the x-axis, indicating a 0%
probability of living. In this way, the animated circle represents one life lived. Below this line
graph, there are 5 “buckets” of age ranges. On the low end, is a bucket for 0-9 years left to live
and on the high end you have 50 or more years. Each simulation accumulates a life into one of
these buckets and adjusts the probability of dying in the given age-range. Students should come
away with the understanding that the more times they simulate a life-cycle the more accurate
the probability becomes.

In the version I designed, I adapted Nathan’s visualization to feature a tombstone shape visually
communicate the theme of the visualization. I also add a survey tool that invites students to
make each simulated life their own story. The survey asks students to imagine where they will
be decade-by-decade from their 20s to their 60s and beyond. The students write their brief
description in past tense so that their response can be used as an epitaph on the tombstone. As
each life is simulated, the learner can see what year they would have died in that “life.” Once
they die, the tombstone is “inscribed” with the age range they died in (bucket), the probability
that they would die in the age-range, and their epitaf.

I was inspired to adapt this particularly learning experience by Yoav Bergener and an interactive
textbook he is developing for an undergraduate ​Intro to Statistics​ course for Steinhardt.
Originally, I approached Yoav because I was looking for professors to collaborate with for my
DMDL thesis on digital learning experiences in higher ed, which I am currently working on with
Sean Diaz. Yoav invited me to review his book and develop prototypes based on his material
and examples that would increase the interactivity of the learning. My goal is to submit this
prototype for feedback and then develop a working version using the javascript framework
D3.js, which is what Nathan used for the original interactive.

My goals for the adaptation, is to increase alignment with learning theory, especially multimedia
and animation principles for learning.

● Motivation - ​Riebner describes an experiment that measures the efficacy of a traditional

learning activity in comparison to an interactive dynamic learning experience, which
outperformed the traditional learning activity and also increased the likelihood that the
student would return to the activity. (Rieber 1990). In my adaption of Nathan’s
interactive, I redesigned his experience to make it more personal for the learner by
putting them “in” the learning experience. I also added stronger visual storytelling (the
 tombstone) to evoke the theme of the visualization. My hypothesis is that the motion of
the ball, the emotionally evocative theme, and the interactivity of the survey will increase
learner motivation compared to the original.

● Chunking - ​Riebner performed a study where he redesigned an animated learning

experience by providing students controls to move between each frame. This chunking
approach improved the efficacy of learning compared to the original animation as well as
the static graphic and the version without any graphic. (Rieber 1990). In my adaptation, I
increased the degree to which the students can chunk the experience by adding a “Live”
button so that students determine when the simulation runs. I retained the ability to
speed up the simulation to increase accuracy of the results.

● Cuing​ - While the original data visualization handled the depth of information pretty well,
I decided that an audience of undergraduate students, as novices, would benefit from
less information density. This way, we can direct their attention to the most important
information. According the principle of cueing, Rieber has shown an increased efficacy
when the media indicates where learners should focus their attention (Rieber 1990).

Sources

Bergener, Y. (2019, October 15). Carpe Datum: Data Science for Life’s Big Questions
(unpublished)

Yau, Nathan. (2015, September 23). ​Years You Have Left to Live, Probably.​ Retrieved from
URL ​https://flowingdata.com/2015/09/23/years-you-have-left-to-live-probably/

Rieber, L. P. (1990). Animation in computer-based instruction. ​Educational technology research

and development​, ​38​(1), 77-86.