Mas S Mohktar

Email: mas_dayana@um.edu.my
Phone (office): 0379677681
 The diagnostic test is compared against a reference ('gold')
standard, and results are tabulated in a 2 x 2 table

Sensitivity = a / a+c
Specificity = d / b+d
Test Gold Standard
Positive Predictive Value (PPV)
Results D+ D- = a / a+b ??
a b
T+ (TP) (FP) Negative Predictive Value (NPV)
= d / c +d ??
c d
T- (FN) (TN) Prevalence = a+c / (a+b+c+d) ??
2
 Bayes’ theorem is often employed in issues of diagnostic testing
or screening
 Sensitivity and Specificity

3

 PPV
Sensitivity (SE)

 NPV
1-Specificity (1-
SP)

4
 The probability that he or she has the disease
depends on the prevalence of the disease in
the population tested and the validity of the
test (sensitivity and specificity)

5
 Let say we have:
 D+ = “Drug user”
 D- = “Not a drug user”
 T+ =“Positive drug test”
 T− = “Negative test”
 P(“Drug user”) = P(D+)
 Using the Bayes Theorem calculate P(D+|T+) and P(D-|T-)

D+ D- Total
T+ 20 180 200
T- 10 1820 1830
Total 30 2000 2030
 D+ D- Total
T+ 20 180 200
T- 10 1820 1830
Total 30 2000 2030
SE  20 / (20  10)  67%
P ( D )  30 / 2030  1.48%
SP  1820 / (180  1820)  91%
30

20
PPV  20 / (20  180)  10%  2030 30
30
2030  20
30 2000
2030  2000
180

2000
 1820
NPV  1820 / (10  1820)  99.5%  2030 2000
2000
2030  1820
2000 2030
30
 10
30 7
 Variable-any characteristic that can be measured or
categorized
 If a variable can assume a number of different values such that
any particular outcome is determined by chance, it is a random
variable (r.v.)
 Random variables are typically represented by uppercase
letters such as X, Y , and Z
 A discrete random variable can assume only a finite or
countable number of outcomes
 For example, someone’s marital status and the number of ear
infections an infant develops during his or her first year of life
 A continuous random variable can take on any value within a
specified internal or continuum, e.g. weight or height
 Every random variable has a corresponding probability
distribution
 A probability distribution applies the theory of probability to
describe the behavior of the random variable
 For a discrete r.v., its probability distribution specifies all
possible outcomes of this r.v. along with the probability that
each will occur
 For a continuous r.v., its probability distribution allows us to
determine the probability associated with specified ranges of
values
  For instance, let X be the birth order of each child
born to a woman residing in the U.S. (so X is a discrete
r.v.)
 To construct a probability distribution for X, we list
each of the values x that the r.v. can assume, along with
the probability (i.e. P(X = x))
 An uppercase X to denote the r.v. and a lowercase x to
represent the outcome of a particular child
 The probabilities represents the relative frequency of
occurrence of each outcome x
 Since all possible values of the r.v. are taken into
account, the outcomes are exhaustive; therefore, the
sum of their probabilities must be 1

Probability distribution of a random variable X representing the birth order of children born in the US
Probability distribution of a random variable representing the birth order of children born in the US

 In many cases, we can display a probability distribution by means of either a

graph or a mathematical formula
 The average value assumed by a r.v. is known as the population mean
 The dispersion of the values relative to this mean is the population variance
 The square root of the population variance is the population standard
deviation
 Probabilities that are calculated from a finite amount of data are called
empirical probabilities
 For instance, the probability distribution of the birth order
 Consider a dichotomous r.v. Y (Y = 0 or 1), e.g. life and death, male
and female, or sickness and health
 For simplicity, they are often referred to as “failure” and “success”
 A r.v. of this type is known as a Bernoulli random variable
 If P(Y = 1) = p, then we have P(Y = 0) = 1 − p
 If we have a sequence of n independent Bernoulli trials (or n
independent outcomes of the Bernoulli r.v. Y ) each with a
probability of “success” p, then the total number of successes X is
a binomial random variable and the probability distribution of the
discrete r.v
 X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n and p
 Parameters are numerical quantities that summarize the
characteristics of a probability distribution
The binomial distribution involves three assumptions:
1. There are fixed number of trials n, each of which results in
one of two mutually exclusive outcomes
2. The outcomes of the n trials are independent
3. The probability of success p is constant for each trial
 The probability that a r.v. X with binomial distribution B(n, p) is equal to the
value x, where x = 0, 1, · · · , n, is given by

 where

 is known as the binomial coefficient, and n! = n × (n − 1) × · · · × 2 × 1

(Note: 0! = 1)
 The mean value of X is equal to E(X) = np and the variance of X is var(X) =
np(1 − p)
 For example, to compute the probability of 3 heads out of 4 coin
flips,
n=4, p=0.5, X= number of heads, where we are interested in X=x,
where x=3.

𝑛 𝑥
𝑃 𝑋=3 = 𝑝 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥 =
𝑥
𝑛!
𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥 =
𝑥! 𝑛 − 𝑥 !
3 4−3
4! 1 1
1−
3! 4 − 3 ! 2 2
 If p = 0.50, the probability distribution is symmetric
 When n becomes large, the combination of n objects taken x at
a time

is very tedious to evaluate

 When n is very large and p is very small, the binomial
distribution is well approximated by another theoretical
probability distribution, called the Poisson distribution
 The Poisson distribution is used to model discrete events that
occur infrequently in time or space; hence, it is sometimes
called the distribution of rare events
 Let λ be a constant that denotes the average number of
occurrences of the event in an interval. If the probability that X
assumes the value x is

·
 X is said to have a Poisson distribution with parameter λ
 The Poisson distribution involves a set of underlying
assumptions:
1. The probability that a single event occurs within an interval is
proportional to the length of the interval
2. Within a single interval, an infinite number of occurrences of
the event are theoretically possible (not restricted to a fixed
number of trials)
3. The events occur independently both within the same interval
and between consecutive intervals
 Recall that the mean of a binomial r.v. is equal to np and that its
variance is np(1−p)
 When p is very small, 1−p is close to 1 and np(1−p) is
approximately equal to np
 In this case, the mean and the variance of the distribution are
identical and can be represented by the single parameter λ =
np
 The property that the mean is equal to the variance is an
identifying characteristic of the Poisson distribution
 Instead of performing the calculation by hand, we can use
Table of Poisson Probabilities to obtain Poisson probabilities
for selected values of λ
 The Poisson distribution is highly skewed for small values of λ;
as λ increases, the distribution becomes more symmetric
 If λ∼ 2.5, use the table to find P(X ≥ 7)
 When a r.v. X follows either a binomial or a Poisson distribution,
it is restricted to taking on integer values only
 However, some outcomes of a random variable may not be
limited to integers or counts
 A smooth curve is used to represent the probability distribution
of a continuous r.v.; the curve is called a probability density
 The most common continuous distribution is the normal
distribution, also known as (aka) the Gaussian distribution or the
bell-shaped curve
 Its probability density function (p.d.f.) is given by the equation

 where −∞ < x < ∞, μ is the mean of X, and σ is its standard deviation

 The normal curve is unimodal and symmetric about its mean (i.e.
mean=median=mode in this special case)
 The two parameters μ and σ2 completely define a normal curve
X ∼ N(μ, σ2)
 Since a normal distribution could have an infinite number of
possible values for its mean and standard deviation, it is
impossible to tabulate the area associated with each and every
normal curve
 Instead, only a single curve is tabulated which is known as the
standard normal distribution for which μ = 0 and σ = 1 and we
write it as N(0, 1).
For the standard normal distribution, approximately 68.2% of the area
beneath the curve lies within ± 1 standard deviation from the mean
 In general, for any arbitrary normal r.v.
X ∼ N(μ, σ2),
 Standard score/Z-value (Z) =(X − μ)/σ has a standard normal
distribution
 The standardization is done by shifting the mean to 0 and scaling
the variance to 1
 By transforming X into Z, we can use a table of areas computed for
the standard normal curve to estimate probabilities associated
with X
 An outcome of the r.v. Z, denoted z, is known as a standard normal
deviate or a z-score
 X m
Z
s
Normal
Standard normal
s
distribution
distribution
s 1

Z
m x m
GENERAL FEATURES OF STANDARD
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 1 The distribution is centered at 0

 2 The distribution is symmetric.

  3 The distribution regularity of area under the
standard normal curve.

Fig 6 the standard normal curve and

it’s area distribution
 The second decimal place of Z value
Combination the
number on the Normal Distribution

column with the Z 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

corresponding Z 0.0 0.5000 0.4960 0.4920 0.4880 0.4840 0.4800 0.4760 0.4720 0.4680 0.4640
0.1 0.4600 0.4560 0.4520 0.4480 0.4440 0.4400 0.4360 0.4330 0.4260 0.4250
value on the row, 0.2 0.4210 0.4170 0.4130 0.4090 0.4050 0.4010 0.3970 0.3940 0.3900 0.3860
0.3 0.3820 0.3780 0.3750 0.3710 0.3670 0.3630 0.3590 0.3560 0.3520 0.3480
then 0.4 0.3450 0.3410 0.3370 0.3340 0.3300 0.3260 0.3230 0.3190 0.3160 0.3120
0.5 0.3090 0.3050 0.3020 0.2980 0.2950 0.2910 0.2880 0.2840 0.2810 0.2780
Look up cross 0.6
0.7
0.2740
0.2420
0.2710
0.2390
0.2680
0.2360
0.2640
0.2330
0.2610
0.2300
0.2580
0.2270
0.2550
0.2240
0.2510
0.2210
0.2480
0.2180
0.2450
0.2150
0.8 0.2120 0.2090 0.2060 0.2030 0.2010 0.1980 0.1950 0.1920 0.1890 0.1870
point 0.9 0.1840 0.1810 0.1790 0.1760 0.1740 0.1710 0.1690 0.1660 0.1640 0.1610

1.0 0.1590 0.1560 0.1540 0.1520 0.1480 0.1470 0.1450 0.1420 0.1400 0.1380
1.1 0.1360 0.1340 0.1310 0.1290 0.1270 0.1250 0.1230 0.1210 0.1190 0.1170
1.2 0.1150 0.1130 0.1110 0.1090 0.1080 0.1060 0.1040 0.1020 0.1000 0.0985
1.3 0.0968 0.0915 0.0934 0.0918 0.9010 0.0885 0.0869 0.0853 0.0838 0.0823
1.4 0.0808 0.0792 0.0778 0.0764 0.0749 0.0735 0.0721 0.0708 0.0694 0.0681
1.5 0.0668 0.0655 0.0643 0.0630 0.0618 0.0606 0.0594 0.0582 0.0571 0.0559
1.6 0.0548 0.0537 0.0526 0.0516 0.0505 0.0495 0.0485 0.0475 0.0465 0.0455
1.7 0.0446 0.0436 0.0427 0.0418 0.0409 0.0401 0.0392 0.0384 0.0375 0.0367
1.8 0.0359 0.0352 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.0301 0.0294
1.9 0.0287 0.0281 0.0274 0.0268 0.0262 0.0265 0.0250 0.0244 0.0239 0.0233
 Table 1 critical value of standard normal curve
z 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
1 3.0 0.0010 0.0010 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0012 0.0012 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013
2.9 0.0014 0.0014 0.0015 0.0015 0.0016 0.0016 0.0017 0.0018 0.0018 0.0019
2.8 0.0019 0.0020 0.0021 0.0021 0.0022 0.0023 0.0023 0.0024 0.0025 0.0026
The area under 2.7 0.0026 0.0027 0.0028 0.0029 0.0030 0.0031 0.0032 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035

normal curve is 2.6 0.0036 0.0037 0.0038 0.0039 0.0040 0.0041 0.0043 0.0044 0.0045 0.0047
2.5 0.0048 0.0049 0.0051 0.0052 0.0054 0.0055 0.0057 0.0059 0.0060 0.0062
1 2.4 0.0064 0.0066 0.0068 0.0069 0.0071 0.0073 0.0075 0.0078 0.0080 0.0082
2.3 0.0084 0.0087 0.0089 0.0091 0.0094 0.0096 0.0099 0.0102 0.0104 0.0107
2.2 0.0110 0.0113 0.0116 0.0119 0.0122 0.0125 0.0129 0.0132 0.0136 0.0139
2.1 0.0143 0.0146 0.0150 0.0154 0.0158 0.0162 0.0166 0.0170 0.0174 0.0179
2 2.0 0.0183 0.0188 0.0192 0.0197 0.0202 0.0207 0.0212 0.0217 0.0222 0.0228
1.9 0.0233 0.0239 0.0244 0.0250 0.0256 0.0262 0.0268 0.0274 0.0281 0.0287
The distribution 1.8 0.0294 0.0301 0.0307 0.0314 0.0322 0.0329 0.0336 0.0344 0.0351 0.0359
1.7 0.0367 0.0375 0.0384 0.0392 0.0401 0.0409 0.0418 0.0427 0.0436 0.0446
is symmetric at 1.6 0.0455 0.0465 0.0475 0.0485 0.0495 0.0505 0.0516 0.0526 0.0537 0.0548
0 1.5 0.0559 0.0571 0.0582 0.0594 0.0606 0.0618 0.0630 0.0643 0.0655 0.0668
1.4 0.0681 0.0694 0.0708 0.0721 0.0735 0.0749 0.0764 0.0778 0.0793 0.0808
1.3 0.0823 0.0838 0.0853 0.0869 0.0885 0.0901 0.0918 0.0934 0.0951 0.0968
1.2 0.0985 0.1003 0.1020 0.1038 0.1056 0.1075 0.1093 0.1112 0.1131 0.1151
3 1.1 0.1170 0.1190 0.1210 0.1230 0.1251 0.1271 0.1292 0.1314 0.1335 0.1357
1.0 0.1379 0.1401 0.1423 0.1446 0.1469 0.1492 0.1515 0.1539 0.1562 0.1587

The data 0.9

0.8
0.1611
0.1867
0.1635
0.1894
0.1660
0.1922
0.1685
0.1949
0.1711
0.1977
0.1736
0.2005
0.1762
0.2033
0.1788
0.2061
0.1814
0.2090
0.1841
0.2119
represents one- 0.7 0.2148 0.2177 0.2206 0.2236 0.2266 0.2296 0.2327 0.2358 0.2389 0.2420

tail area 0.6 0.2451 0.2483 0.2514 0.2546 0.2578 0.2611 0.2643 0.2676 0.2709 0.2743
0.5 0.2776 0.2810 0.2843 0.2877 0.2912 0.2946 0.2981 0.3015 0.3050 0.3085
0.4 0.3121 0.3156 0.3192 0.3228 0.3264 0.3300 0.3336 0.3372 0.3409 0.3446
0.3 0.3483 0.3520 0.3557 0.3594 0.3632 0.3669 0.3707 0.3745 0.3783 0.3821
0.2 0.3859 0.3897 0.3936 0.3974 0.4013 0.4052 0.4090 0.4129 0.4168 0.4207
0.1 0.4247 0.4286 0.4325 0.4364 0.4404 0.4443 0.4483 0.4522 0.4562 0.4602
Example 4.1

Suppose that the scores on an aptitude test are normally distributed with
a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 10.

What is the probability that a randomly selected score is below 90?

Steps

Calculate Z
X m
Z
s
X x
Z
s

Look up Z critical value table and get

probability
Solution

Transform X into a standard normal variable.

μ =100 and σ=10,

X m 90  100
Z    1 .0
s 10

Thus a score of 90 can be represented as 1

standard deviation below the mean
P(X<90)=P(Z<-1.0)
 Table 1 critical value of standard normal curve
z 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
3.0 0.0010 0.0010 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0012 0.0012 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013
2.9 0.0014 0.0014 0.0015 0.0015 0.0016 0.0016 0.0017 0.0018 0.0018 0.0019
2.8 0.0019 0.0020 0.0021 0.0021 0.0022 0.0023 0.0023 0.0024 0.0025 0.0026
2.7 0.0026 0.0027 0.0028 0.0029 0.0030 0.0031 0.0032 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035
2.6 0.0036 0.0037 0.0038 0.0039 0.0040 0.0041 0.0043 0.0044 0.0045 0.0047
2.5 0.0048 0.0049 0.0051 0.0052 0.0054 0.0055 0.0057 0.0059 0.0060 0.0062
2.4 0.0064 0.0066 0.0068 0.0069 0.0071 0.0073 0.0075 0.0078 0.0080 0.0082
2.3 0.0084 0.0087 0.0089 0.0091 0.0094 0.0096 0.0099 0.0102 0.0104 0.0107
2.2 0.0110 0.0113 0.0116 0.0119 0.0122 0.0125 0.0129 0.0132 0.0136 0.0139
2.1 0.0143 0.0146 0.0150 0.0154 0.0158 0.0162 0.0166 0.0170 0.0174 0.0179
2.0 0.0183 0.0188 0.0192 0.0197 0.0202 0.0207 0.0212 0.0217 0.0222 0.0228
1.9 0.0233 0.0239 0.0244 0.0250 0.0256 0.0262 0.0268 0.0274 0.0281 0.0287
1.8 0.0294 0.0301 0.0307 0.0314 0.0322 0.0329 0.0336 0.0344 0.0351 0.0359
1.7 0.0367 0.0375 0.0384 0.0392 0.0401 0.0409 0.0418 0.0427 0.0436 0.0446
1.6 0.0455 0.0465 0.0475 0.0485 0.0495 0.0505 0.0516 0.0526 0.0537 0.0548
1.5 0.0559 0.0571 0.0582 0.0594 0.0606 0.0618 0.0630 0.0643 0.0655 0.0668
1.4 0.0681 0.0694 0.0708 0.0721 0.0735 0.0749 0.0764 0.0778 0.0793 0.0808
1.3 0.0823 0.0838 0.0853 0.0869 0.0885 0.0901 0.0918 0.0934 0.0951 0.0968
1.2 0.0985 0.1003 0.1020 0.1038 0.1056 0.1075 0.1093 0.1112 0.1131 0.1151
1.1 0.1170 0.1190 0.1210 0.1230 0.1251 0.1271 0.1292 0.1314 0.1335 0.1357
1.0 0.1379 0.1401 0.1423 0.1446 0.1469 0.1492 0.1515 0.1539 0.1562 0.1587
0.9 0.1611 0.1635 0.1660 0.1685 0.1711 0.1736 0.1762 0.1788 0.1814 0.1841
0.8 0.1867 0.1894 0.1922 0.1949 0.1977 0.2005 0.2033 0.2061 0.2090 0.2119
0.7 0.2148 0.2177 0.2206 0.2236 0.2266 0.2296 0.2327 0.2358 0.2389 0.2420
0.6 0.2451 0.2483 0.2514 0.2546 0.2578 0.2611 0.2643 0.2676 0.2709 0.2743
0.5 0.2776 0.2810 0.2843 0.2877 0.2912 0.2946 0.2981 0.3015 0.3050 0.3085
0.4 0.3121 0.3156 0.3192 0.3228 0.3264 0.3300 0.3336 0.3372 0.3409 0.3446
0.3 0.3483 0.3520 0.3557 0.3594 0.3632 0.3669 0.3707 0.3745 0.3783 0.3821
0.2 0.3859 0.3897 0.3936 0.3974 0.4013 0.4052 0.4090 0.4129 0.4168 0.4207
0.1 0.4247 0.4286 0.4325 0.4364 0.4404 0.4443 0.4483 0.4522 0.4562 0.4602
The probability that Z is smaller than -1 is 0.1587, so the probability

of a score less than 90 is 15.87%

Example 4.2 What is the probability of a score between 90

and 115?
Solution

Transform X into a standard normal

variable. μ =100 and σ=10,

X m 90  100
Z1     1 .0
s 10

X m 115  100
Z2    1 .5
s 10
 Table 1 critical value of standard normal curve
z 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
3.0 0.0010 0.0010 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0012 0.0012 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013
2.9 0.0014 0.0014 0.0015 0.0015 0.0016 0.0016 0.0017 0.0018 0.0018 0.0019
2.8 0.0019 0.0020 0.0021 0.0021 0.0022 0.0023 0.0023 0.0024 0.0025 0.0026
2.7 0.0026 0.0027 0.0028 0.0029 0.0030 0.0031 0.0032 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035
2.6 0.0036 0.0037 0.0038 0.0039 0.0040 0.0041 0.0043 0.0044 0.0045 0.0047
2.5 0.0048 0.0049 0.0051 0.0052 0.0054 0.0055 0.0057 0.0059 0.0060 0.0062
2.4 0.0064 0.0066 0.0068 0.0069 0.0071 0.0073 0.0075 0.0078 0.0080 0.0082
2.3 0.0084 0.0087 0.0089 0.0091 0.0094 0.0096 0.0099 0.0102 0.0104 0.0107
2.2 0.0110 0.0113 0.0116 0.0119 0.0122 0.0125 0.0129 0.0132 0.0136 0.0139
2.1 0.0143 0.0146 0.0150 0.0154 0.0158 0.0162 0.0166 0.0170 0.0174 0.0179
2.0 0.0183 0.0188 0.0192 0.0197 0.0202 0.0207 0.0212 0.0217 0.0222 0.0228
1.9 0.0233 0.0239 0.0244 0.0250 0.0256 0.0262 0.0268 0.0274 0.0281 0.0287
1.8 0.0294 0.0301 0.0307 0.0314 0.0322 0.0329 0.0336 0.0344 0.0351 0.0359
1.7 0.0367 0.0375 0.0384 0.0392 0.0401 0.0409 0.0418 0.0427 0.0436 0.0446
1.6 0.0455 0.0465 0.0475 0.0485 0.0495 0.0505 0.0516 0.0526 0.0537 0.0548
1.5 0.0559 0.0571 0.0582 0.0594 0.0606 0.0618 0.0630 0.0643 0.0655 0.0668
1.4 0.0681 0.0694 0.0708 0.0721 0.0735 0.0749 0.0764 0.0778 0.0793 0.0808
1.3 0.0823 0.0838 0.0853 0.0869 0.0885 0.0901 0.0918 0.0934 0.0951 0.0968
1.2 0.0985 0.1003 0.1020 0.1038 0.1056 0.1075 0.1093 0.1112 0.1131 0.1151
1.1 0.1170 0.1190 0.1210 0.1230 0.1251 0.1271 0.1292 0.1314 0.1335 0.1357
1.0 0.1379 0.1401 0.1423 0.1446 0.1469 0.1492 0.1515 0.1539 0.1562 0.1587
0.9 0.1611 0.1635 0.1660 0.1685 0.1711 0.1736 0.1762 0.1788 0.1814 0.1841
0.8 0.1867 0.1894 0.1922 0.1949 0.1977 0.2005 0.2033 0.2061 0.2090 0.2119
0.7 0.2148 0.2177 0.2206 0.2236 0.2266 0.2296 0.2327 0.2358 0.2389 0.2420
0.6 0.2451 0.2483 0.2514 0.2546 0.2578 0.2611 0.2643 0.2676 0.2709 0.2743
0.5 0.2776 0.2810 0.2843 0.2877 0.2912 0.2946 0.2981 0.3015 0.3050 0.3085
0.4 0.3121 0.3156 0.3192 0.3228 0.3264 0.3300 0.3336 0.3372 0.3409 0.3446
0.3 0.3483 0.3520 0.3557 0.3594 0.3632 0.3669 0.3707 0.3745 0.3783 0.3821
0.2 0.3859 0.3897 0.3936 0.3974 0.4013 0.4052 0.4090 0.4129 0.4168 0.4207
0.1 0.4247 0.4286 0.4325 0.4364 0.4404 0.4443 0.4483 0.4522 0.4562 0.4602
We wish to find the shaded area from Z=-1.0 to Z=1.5

15.87% 6.68%
77.45%

-1.0 0 1.5

100% - 6.68% - 15.87%= 77.45%

Exercise 1 Suppose that diastolic blood pressure X in hypertensive
women centers about 100mmHg and has a standard deviation of
16mmHg and is normally distributed. Find P(X<90) and P(X>124).
Solution

Transform X into a standard normal

variable. μ =100 and σ=16,

X m
Z1   0.625
s

X m 124  100
Z2    1 .5
s 16
 Table 1 critical value of standard normal curve
z 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
3.0 0.0010 0.0010 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0012 0.0012 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013
2.9 0.0014 0.0014 0.0015 0.0015 0.0016 0.0016 0.0017 0.0018 0.0018 0.0019
2.8 0.0019 0.0020 0.0021 0.0021 0.0022 0.0023 0.0023 0.0024 0.0025 0.0026
2.7 0.0026 0.0027 0.0028 0.0029 0.0030 0.0031 0.0032 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035
2.6 0.0036 0.0037 0.0038 0.0039 0.0040 0.0041 0.0043 0.0044 0.0045 0.0047
2.5 0.0048 0.0049 0.0051 0.0052 0.0054 0.0055 0.0057 0.0059 0.0060 0.0062
2.4 0.0064 0.0066 0.0068 0.0069 0.0071 0.0073 0.0075 0.0078 0.0080 0.0082
2.3 0.0084 0.0087 0.0089 0.0091 0.0094 0.0096 0.0099 0.0102 0.0104 0.0107
2.2 0.0110 0.0113 0.0116 0.0119 0.0122 0.0125 0.0129 0.0132 0.0136 0.0139
2.1 0.0143 0.0146 0.0150 0.0154 0.0158 0.0162 0.0166 0.0170 0.0174 0.0179
2.0 0.0183 0.0188 0.0192 0.0197 0.0202 0.0207 0.0212 0.0217 0.0222 0.0228
1.9 0.0233 0.0239 0.0244 0.0250 0.0256 0.0262 0.0268 0.0274 0.0281 0.0287
1.8 0.0294 0.0301 0.0307 0.0314 0.0322 0.0329 0.0336 0.0344 0.0351 0.0359
1.7 0.0367 0.0375 0.0384 0.0392 0.0401 0.0409 0.0418 0.0427 0.0436 0.0446
1.6 0.0455 0.0465 0.0475 0.0485 0.0495 0.0505 0.0516 0.0526 0.0537 0.0548
1.5 0.0559 0.0571 0.0582 0.0594 0.0606 0.0618 0.0630 0.0643 0.0655 0.0668
1.4 0.0681 0.0694 0.0708 0.0721 0.0735 0.0749 0.0764 0.0778 0.0793 0.0808
1.3 0.0823 0.0838 0.0853 0.0869 0.0885 0.0901 0.0918 0.0934 0.0951 0.0968
1.2 0.0985 0.1003 0.1020 0.1038 0.1056 0.1075 0.1093 0.1112 0.1131 0.1151
1.1 0.1170 0.1190 0.1210 0.1230 0.1251 0.1271 0.1292 0.1314 0.1335 0.1357
1.0 0.1379 0.1401 0.1423 0.1446 0.1469 0.1492 0.1515 0.1539 0.1562 0.1587
0.9 0.1611 0.1635 0.1660 0.1685 0.1711 0.1736 0.1762 0.1788 0.1814 0.1841
0.8 0.1867 0.1894 0.1922 0.1949 0.1977 0.2005 0.2033 0.2061 0.2090 0.2119
0.7 0.2148 0.2177 0.2206 0.2236 0.2266 0.2296 0.2327 0.2358 0.2389 0.2420
0.6 0.2451 0.2483 0.2514 0.2546 0.2578 0.2611 0.2643 0.2676 0.2709 0.2743
0.5 0.2776 0.2810 0.2843 0.2877 0.2912 0.2946 0.2981 0.3015 0.3050 0.3085
0.4 0.3121 0.3156 0.3192 0.3228 0.3264 0.3300 0.3336 0.3372 0.3409 0.3446
0.3 0.3483 0.3520 0.3557 0.3594 0.3632 0.3669 0.3707 0.3745 0.3783 0.3821
0.2 0.3859 0.3897 0.3936 0.3974 0.4013 0.4052 0.4090 0.4129 0.4168 0.4207
0.1 0.4247 0.4286 0.4325 0.4364 0.4404 0.4443 0.4483 0.4522 0.4562 0.4602
We wish to find the area when Z<-0.625 or Z>1.5

26.43% 6.68%

-0.625 0 1.5
1. Assume that the age at onset of disease B is distributed normally
with a mean of 50 years and a standard deviation of 12 years.
What is the probability that an individual afflicted with disease B
developed it before age 35?
2. The weights of 18-24 years old women are normally distributed
with a mean of 65 kg and a standard deviation of 13.6kg. If one
randomly selected 150 of these women age 18-24, how many of
them would be expected to weight 50-70 kg?
3. An instructor is administering a final examination. She tells her
class that she will give an A grade to the 10% of the students
who earn the highest marks. Past experience with the same
examination has yielded grades that are normally distributed
with a mean of 70 and SD of 10. If the same present class runs
true to form, what numerical score would a student need to earn
an A grade?