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On The Cost of Capital in Inventory Models With Deterministic Demand PDF
On The Cost of Capital in Inventory Models With Deterministic Demand PDF
A R T I C L E I N F O A BS T RAC T
Keywords: In the operations management literature, the financial risk in an inventory model is usually assumed to be
Supply chain management captured by the (constant) weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of the firm. This assumption is, at best, an
Risk approximation, since this cost depends on the risk of the cash flows, which, in turn, depends on the inventory
Operations management-finance link policy. We investigate what the right cost of capital should be in an inventory model with deterministic demand.
Cost of capital
To do so, we study an inventory model with a generic inventory cost function where risk depends on the
inventory decision made. Additive and multiplicative financial noise functions are included to assess the impact
of these on both the cost of capital of the firm and the optimal inventory policy. We find that, in contrast to
previous models, risk is not in general a monotone function of inventory. Also, a rate close to the risk-free rate,
which typically deviates significantly from the WACC, should be used to value inventory-related investments
when the inventory cost function is dominated by holding cost for large order quantities, even if investments are
subject to other sources of financial variability.
⁎
Corresponding author at: Mays Business School, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843-4217, USA.
E-mail address: roliva@tamu.edu (R. Oliva).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2016.10.007
Received 9 March 2016; Received in revised form 4 August 2016; Accepted 4 October 2016
Available online 06 October 2016
0925-5273/ © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A. Serrano et al. Int. J. Production Economics 183 (2017) 14–20
This paper addresses the question of what the impact of inventory levels, amount of loans, and dividend payouts are made simultaneously
decisions on the firm's cost of capital is and, consequently, how optimal (2006). Finally, Li and Arreola-Risa (2016) address the impact of
inventories policies should change given that the cost of capital is stochastic capacity on inventory policies and the firm's value. These
endogenous to the firm's operational decisions. The motivation for papers use risk-neutral equivalent approaches to discount dividends at
these questions comes from an engagement, where a multinational firm the risk-free rate, either by adjusting cash flows (Anvari, 1987; Singhal,
in the pharmaceutical industry asked one of the authors for advice on 1988; Birge and Zhang, 1999; Li and Arreola-Risa, 2016), or by using a
how to compute the appropriate production batch size for one product risk-neutral equivalent demand function (Xu and Birge, 2004, 2006).
family, given that its demand was fairly stable. The firm's managers Our approach is more intuitive—although equally correct—in that we
agreed that a plausible model to use would be the economic order discount dividends at the cost of capital for shareholders, keeping track
quantity (EOQ) model, although were reluctant to accept that the of the effects of the inventory decisions not only on the value of the
financial portion of the inventory holding cost in the denominator of firm, but also on the cost of capital for shareholders. We can identify
the EOQ formula should be the risk-free rate—as there is no risk in the and quantify the effects of the parameters that have an impact on the
EOQ model, since the state of the practice in the company was to use cost of capital.
the firm's weighted average cost of capital (WACC). As far as the inventory policy is concerned, of these papers, Singhal
In order to address these practical questions, we derived a model (1988) and Birge and Zhang (1999) are the closest to ours as we use
where a firm seeks to maximize value for its shareholders by deciding CAPM to quantify risk. Our work, however, departs from these papers
on the amount of inventory to hold. To set the inventory problem in a in two main ways. First, our model includes a generic inventory cost
business context, the cash flows obtained by the firm are subject to two function, financial leverage, as well as investments not related to
sources of financial noise, one additive and one multiplicative. One inventory. Second, in our formulation, risk comes from either exogen-
portion of the additive noise function results from cash flows linked to ous or endogenous financial shocks, represented by two financial noise
other investments undertaken by the firm, which are not related to the functions, one additive and one multiplicative. We are able to
product under consideration (as in Eeckhoudt et al., 1995). The other determine under which conditions these sources of variability are
portion of the additive noise function together with the multiplicative relevant for the inventory solution.
noise function can be thought of as the convolution of financial noise Finally, for the particular case of deterministic demand, some
functions affecting the individual model parameters. Overall, the model papers include discounting (e.g., Trippi and Lewin, 1974; Klein
considers all potential cash flows and three sources of variability, Haneveld and Teunter, 1998), and even endogenous discount rates
namely, market returns, additive, and multiplicative noise functions. (Thorstenson, 1988), but they do not address the impact of both noise
The model also includes a generic inventory cost function, which makes functions. In these papers, if demand is deterministic, the discount rate
the model versatile to be applicable in various settings. We derive an for cash flows becomes the risk-free rate. This is not necessarily the
expression for the firm's cost of capital as a function of inventory, and case in our model, since a firm, even one facing deterministic demand,
find that it depends on all three sources of uncertainty. We also show is usually subject to random disruptions and, therefore, its risk-averse
that risk is not monotone in the amount of inventory, which is in rational stockholders may require an expected return above the risk-
contrast with previous results in the literature (Singhal, 1988). free rate for their investment.
Additionally, we characterize the optimal solution for inventory, which
depends on the multiplicative noise variability, but not on the additive 3. Model
one.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows: After the literature Consider a profit-making firm that faces constant demand, d, buys a
review in the next section, we describe the model and the relationships product at cost c and sells it at price p. We focus on deterministic
between cost of capital and order quantity in Section 3. In Section 4, we demand to ensure we understand the effects of other sources of
derive an expression for the firm's cost of capital and characterize the variability. Practical examples include demand of items with fairly
solution for the optimal inventory problem. Section 5 illustrates the stable consumption, such as, say, brake pedals for constant-production
usefulness of our findings in terms of value creation for one business car manufacturers, or demand in a market with a severe capacity
application. Finally, in Section 6 we draw our conclusions. constraint, so that effective demand as seen by producers can be
considered as constant over time. A portion θ of the initial investment
2. Literature review used to buy the product comes from debt holders (e.g., a bank) at cost
rd, and the remaining portion, 1 − θ , from the firm's shareholders.
The literature linking operations and finance has been growing in Additional funds required, other than for purchasing, may also come
the last two decades looking for more holistic solutions for firms' from shareholders or debt holders (respectively, Eε and Dε ). The latter
problems (for a recent review of this literature, see Zhao and funds may or may not be related to the product under consideration.
Huchzermeier, 2015). Several authors in operations management have Specifically, we let Eεp (Eεp′) be the portion of Eε that is (is not) related
attempted to integrate operational and financial decisions by addres- to the product. Dεp and Dεp′ are defined similarly. These additional
sing wealth maximization problems (McDaniel, 1986; Porteus, 1986; funds are included to study the impact they may have on risk and the
Park and Son, 1989; Zipkin, 2000; Sun and Queyranne, 2002; Soni inventory policy.
et al., 2006). These authors assume that the cost of capital is exogenous There are three stationary sources of uncertainty: (1) a moderate
to the problems posed. In contrast, we do acknowledge that the cost of multiplicative financial noise function, ν, with mean μν = 1 and
capital is endogenous to the operational problem. standard deviation σν ; (2) an additive financial noise function, ε, with
A second research avenue includes papers that consider an en- mean με = 0 and standard deviation σε ; (3) the market returns function,
dogenous cost of capital for shareholders. Among them, Anvari (1987) rm, with mean μm and standard deviation σm. The financial noise
analyzes, using the Capital Asset Pricing Model—CAPM (Sharpe, 1964; functions are included to acknowledge the fact that the risk of a
Lintner, 1965), an all-equity firm facing a newsvendor problem with realistic project cannot be zero, and these functions capture variability
limited investment capacity. Singhal (1988) uses the CAPM to derive a from other model parameters apart from demand. Covariances are
specific relation between the firm's cost of capital and inventory. Birge denoted by σ with two subscripts. For instance, σνm (σεm ) represents the
and Zhang (1999) make use of risk-neutral option methods to covariance of the multiplicative (additive) noise function with the
introduce risk into inventory models. Xu and Birge study a newsvendor market returns function. A portion εp of the additive noise function ε is
model subject to financial constraints and bankruptcy cost (2004) and related to the product, whilst the remaining portion, εp′, is not, i.e., it
present a multistage stochastic program where decisions on inventory can be thought of as the convolution of the cash flows coming from all
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A. Serrano et al. Int. J. Production Economics 183 (2017) 14–20
other investments undertaken by the firm (Eeckhoudt et al., 1995). The Maximizing value in any period yields an identical solution, thus
financial noise captures the variability that some of the model's adding up cash flows in period 2 yields
parameters may have in practice. (P) max [V(q )] = −φ0 (q ) rê (q ) + [φ (q )]
A generic strictly convex inventory cost function of class C2, l(q), q ≥0
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A. Serrano et al. Int. J. Production Economics 183 (2017) 14–20
Fig. 1. Equity cost of capital as a function of the order quantity for different values of σν and σϵ . Model parameters were set as: c=4, p=10, d=1,200, θ = 0.3, rd = r f = 0.03, Pm=0.06,
σm = 0.15, Eε = 500 , Dεp = 0 , ρνm = 0.2 , ρε, m = 0.4 , l (q ) = 600, 000/q + 0.2q . The choice of values for Pm an σm follows, respectively, from Fernández (2009) and Singhal (1988).
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A. Serrano et al. Int. J. Production Economics 183 (2017) 14–20
Fig. 2. Optimal order quantity as a function of σν for different values of rf and ρνm . Model parameters were set as: θ = 0.3, rd=rf, hm=0.09, Pm=0.06, σm = 0.15, K=500, d=1,200, c=4.
Kd q
Remark 3. If l (q ) = q + c 2 h m and the noise functions are absent,
then the optimal order quantity that solves (P) is
2Kd
q* =
c (h m + r f )
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A. Serrano et al. Int. J. Production Economics 183 (2017) 14–20
parameter in the EOQ formula, namely the WACC for the risk free rate, deterministic/very low variability SKUs, allowing significantly more
our model suggests that companies should think differently about stock than the extant approach suggests.
where
⎛ ⎛⎡ ⎛ ⎞ ⎤ ⎞ ⎞
⎜ ⎜⎜ ⎢ ( p − c ) d − l (q ) − ⎜θc q + Dεp⎟ rd ⎥ ν + ε⎟⎟ ⎟
⎜ ⎝⎣ ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎦ ⎠ ⎟ 1 ⎡ ⎛ q ⎞ ⎞ ⎤
cov(re (q ), rm ) = cov ⎜ q , rm⎟ = q ⎢ ( p − c ) d − l (q ) + ⎜θc + Dεp⎟ rd ⎟ σνm + σεm ⎥
⎜ (1 − θ ) c + Eε ⎢
⎟ (1 − θ ) c + Eε ⎣ ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎠ ⎥⎦
⎜ 2 ⎟ 2
⎝ ⎠
q
Letting G (q ) = ( p − c ) d − (l (q ) + (θc 2 + Dεp ) rd ), the result follows.□
Corollary 1. The derivative of the required equity cost of capital is
⎛ ⎞
drê (q ) λ ⎜ ⎟
=− q ⎜ ( l ′( q ) + θcrd /2) σνm [(1 − θ ) cq /2 + Eε ]+( G ( q ) σνm + σεm )(1 − θ ) c /2⎟
dq [(1 − θ ) c + Eε]2 ⎜ ⎟
2 ⎝ ⎠
The function l(q) is concave thus l′(q ) is negative, and therefore the derivative is unrestricted in sign.□
Proposition 2. The objective function can be written as
⎡ ⎤ ⎡⎛⎡ ⎛ q ⎞ ⎤ ⎞⎤
q
[V(q )] = −⎢ (1 − θ ) c + Eε ⎥ (r f + λcov(re (q ), rm )) + ⎢ ⎜⎜ ⎢ ( p − c ) d − l (q ) − ⎜θc + Dεp⎟ rd ⎥ ν + ε⎟⎟ ⎥
⎣ 2 ⎦ ⎢⎣ ⎝ ⎣ ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎦ ⎠ ⎦⎥
where the latter equality uses the fact that the expected values of ν and ε are, respectively, 1 and 0.
The first-order condition is
−(1 − θ ) crf /2 + λσνm (l′(q*) + θcrd /2) − l′(q*) − θcrd /2 = 0
Working out,
c⎡ (1 − θ ) r f ⎤
l′(q ) + ⎢θrd + ⎥=0
2⎣ 1 − λσνm ⎦
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A. Serrano et al. Int. J. Production Economics 183 (2017) 14–20
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