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Risk of Liver and Other Types of Cancer in Patients

With Cirrhosis: A Nationwide Cohort Study in Denmark


HENRIK TOFT SØRENSEN,1 SØREN FRIIS,2 JØRGEN H. OLSEN,2 ANE MARIE THULSTRUP,3 LENE MELLEMKJÆR,2 MARTHA LINET,4
DIMITRIOS TRICHOPOULOS,5 HENDRIK VILSTRUP,1 AND JØRN OLSEN3

Cancer risk in patients with cirrhosis could be modified likely attributable to alcohol and tobacco consumption, our
by factors such as changes in hormonal levels, impaired study opens up the possibility that cirrhosis plays a role in
metabolism of carcinogens, or alteration of immunological the carcinogenesis of types of cancer other than liver cancer.
status. We investigated the risk of liver and various forms of (HEPATOLOGY 1998;28:921-925.)
cancer in patients with cirrhosis in a follow-up study. We
identified 11,605 1-year survivors of cirrhosis from the files The incidence of liver cancer varies from 100 in 100,000
of the Danish National Registry of Patients (NRP) from per year in certain parts of Africa and Asia to less than 4 in
1977 to 1989. Occurrence of cancer through 1993 was 100,000 per year in most parts of Europe and North
determined by linkage to the Danish Cancer Registry. For America.1 The incidence of various forms of cirrhosis in
comparison, the expected number of cancer cases was Denmark varies from 9 per million person-years for primary
estimated from national age-, sex-, and site-specific inci- biliary cirrhosis to 137 per million person-years for alcoholic
dence rates. Overall, 1,447 cancers were diagnosed among cirrhosis.2 In general, the incidences of liver cancer and
the study subjects, as compared with 708.1 expected, to cirrhosis follow similar patterns of variation, because these
yield a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of 2.0 (95% CI: two diseases share etiologic factors. Important causes of liver
1.9 to 2.2). In all diagnostic subgroups of cirrhosis, the risk cancer are alcohol and hepatitis B and C viruses,3-11 which
of primary liver cancer, mainly hepatocellular carcinoma, likely act indirectly through cirrhosis.3
was markedly elevated, with 245 observed cases and an Whether cirrhosis is a risk factor for cancer at sites other
overall 36-fold elevated risk (59.9-fold elevated for hepato- than the liver has not been well investigated, except for
cellular carcinoma and 10-fold for cholangiocarcinoma). patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.7,11-14 Changes in the
Substantial and persistent excesses during follow-up were metabolism of carcinogens or hormones could, however,
seen for all types of cancer associated with tobacco and affect cancer risk. It is known that cirrhosis induces changes
alcohol habits (cancer of the lung, larynx, buccal cavity, in estrogen metabolism,15 and male patients with cirrhosis
pharynx, pancreas, urinary bladder, and kidney), while have hyperestrogenism, which may lead to gynecomastia and
moderate excesses were seen for cancers of the colon and testis atrophy. Recent studies in women indicate that cirrhosis
breast. The latter, however, were not complemented by any is associated with menstrual irregularity, increased frequency
decrease in the risk of prostate cancer (SIR: 1.0; 95% CI: 0.7 of spontaneous abortion, and early menopause.16 Moreover,
to 1.3). A slightly increased risk was seen for testis cancer, the liver plays a central role in the metabolism of lipid and
but disappeared after 10 years. We found evidence of an water-soluble drugs and other chemicals, and patients with
increased risk for liver and several extrahepatic cancers in cirrhosis have also been reported to experience alterations in
patients with cirrhosis. Although part of this increase is immune functions and risk of infections.17
To examine the risk of liver cancer and extrahepatic
cancers in patients with cirrhosis, we conducted a cohort
study using nationwide registries.
Abbreviations: NRP, National Registry of Patients; ICD, International Classification of
Diseases; SIR, standardized incidence ratio.
From the 1Department of Medicine V, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; PATIENTS AND METHODS
2The Danish Cancer Society, Division for Cancer Epidemiology, Copenhagen, Denmark;

3The Danish Epidemiology Science Centre at the Department of Epidemiology and


The Danish National Registry of Patients (NRP) contains informa-
Social Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark; 4National Cancer Institute,
tion on virtually all hospital admissions in Denmark (population:
Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Rockville, MD; and 5Department of Epidemiology 5.2 million) since 1977.18 Each admission record includes the
and the Harvard Center for Cancer Prevention, Harvard School of Public Health, personal identification number that is unique to every Danish
Boston, MA. resident, dates of admission, dates of discharge, and up to 20
Received January 8, 1998; accepted May 4, 1998. discharge diagnoses. Diagnoses are classified according to the
Supported by the Oncologic Research Unit at Aalborg Hospital, by the Ebba and Aksel Danish version of the International Classification of Diseases, 8th
Sjølin Foundation, by research grant MAO N01-CP-85639-04 from the National Cancer edition (ICD-8).19 Persons were enrolled in the study if they had
Institute, Bethesda, MD, and The Danish Medical Research Council (grant 9700766). been discharged with alcoholic cirrhosis (ICD-8 5 571.09), primary
The activities of the Danish Epidemiology Science Centre are financed by a grant from
biliary cirrhosis (571.90), nonspecified cirrhosis (571.92), chronic
the Danish National Research Foundation.
Address reprint requests to: Dr. Henrik Toft Sørensen, The Danish Epidemiology
hepatitis (571.93), or ‘‘other types of cirrhosis, alcoholism not
Science Centre at the Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, Aarhus indicated’’ (571.99) at least once during the years 1977 to 1989.
University, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark. Fax: 45-86-13-15-80. Cirrhosis was considered as a whole, but also as four separate types,
Copyright r 1998 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases. largely following the ICD-8 codes given above, except that nonspeci-
0270-9139/98/2804-0004$3.00/0 fied cirrhosis and cirrhosis, alcoholism not indicated, were merged
921
922 SØRENSEN ET AL. HEPATOLOGY October 1998

into one group termed ‘‘nonspecified cirrhosis’’ (571.92 and 571.99). the hospital for cirrhosis. Of the 18,358 patients with cirrhosis
If a patient had been discharged with more than one cirrhosis notified to the NRP, 6,753 (37%) died within the first year of
diagnosis, a prioritized order of diagnoses determined to which follow-up, leaving 11,605 for cancer risk analysis.
group the patient was assigned: 1) alcoholic, 2) primary biliary
cirrhosis, 3) chronic hepatitis, and 4) nonspecified cirrhosis. Accord- RESULTS
ingly, those persons with alcoholic cirrhosis entered this category
Table 1 shows characteristics of the 11,605 patients with
independently of whether they had any other cirrhosis diagnosis.
Furthermore, cirrhosis patients with a diagnosis of alcoholism cirrhosis included in the risk analysis. In both sexes com-
(ICD-8 5 303) at any time from 1977 to 1989 were always referred bined, alcoholic cirrhosis was the most frequent specific
to as the alcoholic group, no matter which cirrhosis code was subtype in Denmark (62%), followed by cirrhosis from
registered. chronic hepatitis (15%), and primary biliary cirrhosis (3%).
All members of the study cohort were linked through their In 21% of cases, the origin of cirrhosis remained nonspeci-
personal identification number to the nationwide Danish Cancer fied. There were more men than women among patients with
Registry, which was initiated in 1943 and which has an almost alcoholic cirrhosis, whereas more women than men had
complete coverage of incident cancers in the country.20 The Cancer primary biliary cirrhosis and cirrhosis from chronic hepatitis
Registry receives notifications of malignant and related diseases (Table 1).
from hospital departments at the time of diagnosis, and if changes in
Over the entire follow-up period, 1,447 cancers were
the initial diagnosis occur. In addition, reports are received from
pathology departments and departments of forensic medicine, diagnosed; 708.1 were expected in the combined cohort,
giving the results of autopsies of cancer patients. Also, cases first which yields an SIR of 2.0 (95% CI: 1.9-2.2) (Table 2). The
diagnosed at autopsy, i.e., as an incidental finding, are included in risk for liver cancer was exceptionally high, with 245
the Registry’s material. This information is supplemented by a observed cases against 6.8 expected (SIR: 36; 95% CI: 32-41).
review of the files of the NRP and of all death certificates. Cancers The excess risk was most pronounced for hepatocellular
were classified according to the modified Danish version of the carcinoma. Significant excesses were seen for cancer related
International Classification of Diseases, 7th revision (ICD-7)20 and to tobacco, and alcohol habits and for cancer of the stomach
since January 1, 1978, also according to the International Classifica- (SIR: 1.9; n 5 40) and colon (SIR: 1.5; n 5 82); this pattern
tion of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O).20 For liver cancers, the latter was evident in both sexes combined as well as separately
classification includes a subgrouping of cases according to tumor
(Table 2). A slight increase in risk was observed for hormone-
morphology, i.e., hepatocellular carcinomas, cholangiocarcinomas,
mixed hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinomas and hemangiosarcomas. related cancers, in particular breast cancer in women and
Liver cancers without specification for morphological type were testis cancer in men. The number of observed prostate
only included in the site-specific cancer analysis if they were cancers was as expected. There were 20% more cases of
explicitly notified as ‘‘primary liver cancer.’’ nonmelanoma skin cancer than expected, which was exclu-
The follow-up period for cancer occurrence began at the date of sively a result of an excess among women, whereas there was
discharge with cirrhosis from the hospital, irrespective of type, and a reduction in the number of malignant melanomas and of
ended at the date of death or December 31, 1993, whichever came cancers of the brain/nervous system.
first. Dates of death were obtained through linkage with the The risk for liver cancer was most pronounced during early
nationwide Cause of Death Registry. follow-up (1-4 years; SIR: 42.8; 95% CI: 36.1-50) compared
Statistics. The number of cancer cases observed among study
with late follow-up, though it remained high (101 years; SIR:
subjects was compared with the number of cases expected on the
basis of rates from the Danish Cancer Registry, and the standardized 28.8; 95% CI: 19.6-40.9) (data not shown). The excess risks
incidence ratio (SIR) was calculated as the ratio of the observed to for tobacco- and alcohol-related cancers, kidney, breast and
the expected number of cancer cases. The expected number of colon cancer, also persisted during late follow-up, but ex-
cancers was calculated by multiplying the number of person-years of cesses of testis and stomach cancer were not present after 10
study subjects by the site- and morphology-specific national inci- years.
dence rates of each sex in 5-year age groups and calendar periods of Table 3 shows that the SIR for all cancers combined was
observation. The statistical methods used assumed that the observed increased in all types of cirrhosis, though only slightly in
number of cases in any specific category followed a Poisson patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. The SIR of liver cancer
distribution. Tests of significance and confidence interval for the SIR was markedly increased in all subcohorts, ranging from 44.8
were calculated based on Byar’s approximation; exact confidence
limits were used if the observed number of cancers was less than
(alcoholic cirrhosis) to 18.5 (primary biliary cirrhosis). The
10.21 cancer pattern was quite similar in alcoholic cirrhosis,
To avoid selection bias that might have been introduced by the chronic hepatitis, and nonspecified cirrhosis, with elevated
entry of study subjects with cirrhosis and concurrent cancer, we risks of tobacco- and alcohol-related cancers, testicular
computed risk estimates for cancer excluding observed and ex- cancer, stomach cancer, and colon cancer. An exception was
pected cancers during the first year of follow-up after discharge from the risk of breast cancer, which was increased only in

TABLE 1. Descriptive Characteristics of 11,605 1-Year Survivors With Cirrhosis in Denmark, 1977-1989
Type of Cirrhosis

Alcoholic Primary Biliary Chronic Hepatitis Nonspecified

Characteristics Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women

No. of patients 5,079 2,086 57 263 712 978 1,210 1,220


Person-years at risk 28,801 12,508 374 1,777 5,466 7,494 6,666 7,208
Average age at discharge with cirrhosis (yr) 51.8 52.5 57.9 60.5 43.4 55.1 57.5 61.7
Mean follow-up time (yr) 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.7 7.7 7.7 5.5 5.9
HEPATOLOGY Vol. 28, No. 4, 1998 SØRENSEN ET AL. 923

TABLE 2. Observed and Expected Numbers and SIR of Cancer in 11,605 Patients With Cirrhosis
Both Sexes Men Women

Cancer Site Observed Expected SIR 95% CI Observed SIR Observed SIR

All malignant neoplasms 1,447 708.1 2.0 1.9-2.2 896 2.2* 551 1.8*
Liver (primary) 245 6.8 36.0 31.6-40.8 182 40.2* 63 27.8*
Hepatocellular carcinoma 199 3.3 59.9 51.8-68.8 152 59.5* 47 97.8*
Cholangiocarcinoma 21 2.1 10.0 6.2-15.2 13 11.4* 8 8.3*
Other and unspecified morphologies 25 1.4 18.3 11.8-27.0 17 20.6* 8 14.8*
Tobacco-related sites, total 356 188.6 1.9 1.7-2.1 244 1.8* 112 2.2*
Lung 207 102.5 2.0 1.8-2.3 143 1.9* 64 2.5*
Urinary bladder 62 45.8 1.4 1.0-1.7 47 1.3 15 1.7
Kidney 45 20.1 2.2 1.6-3.0 27 2.1* 18 2.5*
Pancreas 42 20.1 2.1 1.5-2.8 27 2.4* 15 1.7
Alcohol-related sites, total† 241 31.3 7.7 6.8-8.7 173 7.0* 68 10.5*
Buccal cavity and pharynx 143 15.5 9.2 7.8-10.8 96 8.1* 47 12.9*
Esophagus 54 7.2 7.5 5.6-9.8 41 7.4* 13 7.7*
Larynx 44 8.5 5.2 3.8-6.9 36 4.9* 8 7.1*
Hormone-related sites, total 151 135.4 1.1 0.9-1.3 42 1.0 109 1.2*
Breast 83 63.7 1.3 1.0-1.6 2 3.2 81 1.3*
Endometrium 14 16.5 0.9 0.5-1.4 — — 14 0.9
Ovary 14 13.7 1.0 0.6-1.7 — — 14 1.0
Prostate 40 41.6 1.0 0.7-1.3 40 1.0 — —
Other sites, total‡ 454 346.0 1.3 1.2-1.4 255 2.0* 199 1.3*
Stomach 40 21.3 1.9 1.3-2.6 28 2.0* 12 1.7
Colon 82 55.4 1.5 1.2-1.8 42 1.5* 40 1.5*
Rectum 40 32.4 1.2 0.9-1.7 23 1.1 17 1.5
Gallbladder and biliary tract 8 6.0 1.3 0.6-2.6 3 1.3 5 1.4
Cervix uteri 11 10.4 1.1 0.5-1.9 — — 11 1.1
Testis 8 3.5 2.3 1.0-4.5 8 2.3 — —
Melanoma 8 15.2 0.5 0.2-1.0 2 0.3* 6 0.8
Nonmelanoma skin 120 100.0 1.2 1.0-1.4 62 1.0 58 1.4*
Brain and nervous system 9 17.2 0.5 0.2-1.0 5 0.5 4 0.6
Thyroid 4 2.2 1.8 0.5-4.6 3 3.4 1 0.7
Non–Hodgkin’s lymphoma 19 14.9 1.3 0.8-2.0 12 1.4 7 1.2
Leukemia 20 15.8 1.3 0.8-2.0 13 1.3 7 1.3
NOTE. First years of follow-up excluded.
*P , .05.
†Liver not included; sites also influenced by tobacco.
‡Not all sites shown.

alcoholic and nonspecified cirrhosis. Although the small size included in the group of tobacco-related cancers.23 Alcohol
of the subcohort of primary biliary cirrhosis reduced the consumption has been associated with an increased risk of
ability to detect risk deviations, there seemed to be a rectal cancer,24,25 and Naveau et al.26 studied the effects of
somewhat different cancer pattern among these patients; alcoholism and cirrhosis and found that alcoholics were three
apart from liver cancer, only cancer of the colon was seen in times more likely than nonalcoholics to have colon adenoma-
an excess that reached a significant level (Table 3). tous polyps, controlling for cirrhosis. The same study showed
that the prevalence of colon adenomatous polyps was over
DISCUSSION two times higher in patients with cirrhosis than in those
The study confirmed that patients with cirrhosis have a without cirrhosis, after controlling for alcoholism. A meta-
considerably increased risk of primary liver cancer, mainly analysis based on 27 studies showed that for consumption of
hepatocellular carcinoma, irrespective of the specific underly- two alcoholic beverages daily, the average, relative risk of
ing cause of the cirrhosis. Our finding of a higher risk of liver colorectal cancer was 1.1 (95% CI: 1.05-1.14).27 However,
cancer in alcoholic cirrhosis than in any other type of because the association was small, it was concluded that the
cirrhosis may suggest either a direct effect of alcohol on liver findings regarding a causal role of alcohol were inconclusive.
carcinogenesis or induction of a more severe type of cirrhosis The increased risk of breast cancer observed in patients
carrying a higher risk of liver cancer, or both. with alcoholic and nonspecified cirrhosis, but not in chronic
There is a strong association between alcohol intake, hepatitis, indicates that the excess is to some degree related to
elevated liver enzymes, and smoking habits in the Danish alcohol intake.28 Most patients with clinical cirrhosis have
population,22 and the markedly increased risks for tobacco- increased endogenous estrogen levels,29,30 but the moderate
related cancer sites found in all cirrhosis patients except size of the breast cancer finding, and the absence of an
primary biliary cirrhosis were probably caused by excessive association with chronic hepatitis, suggests that these hor-
use of tobacco products. The increased risks of cancer of the monal changes have very little effect on breast cancer risk.
stomach and large bowel may be more difficult to explain by This is in line with the observation of no excess of prostate
confounding, although stomach cancer has recently been cancer. It has been hypothesized for this male type of cancer
924 SØRENSEN ET AL. HEPATOLOGY October 1998

TABLE 3. Observed and Expected Numbers and SIR of Selected Cancer Sites in Different Types of Cirrhosis
Alcoholic Primary Biliary Chronic Hepatitis Nonspecified

Cancer Site Observed SIR 95% CI Observed SIR 95% CI Observed SIR 95% CI Observed SIR 95% CI

All malignant neoplasms 877 2.2 2.1-2.4 36 1.4 1.0-1.9 187 1.7 1.4-1.9 347 2.0 1.8-2.2
Liver (primary) 173 44.8 38.4-52.0 4 18.5 5.0-48.0 23 23.1 14.6-35.0 45 26.0 19.0-35.0
Hepatocellular carcinoma 142 70.6 59.5-83.2 4 47.0 12.6-120.2 18 42.7 25.2-67.3 35 43.4 30.3-60.4
Cholangiocarcinoma 17 15.3 8.9-24.5 0 — — 0 — — 4 7.2 1.9-18.3
Other and unspecified morphology 14 19.0 10.4-31.8 0 — — 5 23.0 7.4-53.8 6 16.6 6.0-36.0
Tobacco-related sites 210 1.8 1.6-2.1 8 1.5 0.7-3.0 42 1.7 1.2-2.3 96 2.2 1.8-2.7
Lung 135 2.1 1.8-2.5 1 0.4 0.0-2.0 19 1.5 0.9-2.4 52 2.3 1.7-3.0
Urinary bladder 32 1.1 0.8-1.6 3 2.8 0.6-8.1 9 1.6 0.7-3.1 18 1.7 1.0-2.6
Kidney 26 2.2 1.5-3.3 2 3.0 0.3-10.7 8 2.7 1.1-5.3 9 1.8 0.8-3.5
Pancreas 17 1.6 0.9-2.6 2 2.6 0.3-9.5 6 1.8 0.7-3.9 17 3.1 1.8-5.0
Alcohol-related sites 193 9.6 8.3-11.0 1 1.4 0.0-7.6 13 3.5 1.9-6.0 34 5.1 3.5-7.1
Buccal cavity and pharynx 115 11.6 9.6-14.0 0 — — 8 4.2 1.8-8.2 20 6.0 3.6-9.2
Esophagus 40 9.0 6.4-12.3 1 5.4 0.1-30 1 1.1 0.0-6.1 12 7.2 3.7-12.5
Larynx 38 6.5 4.6-9.0 0 — — 4 4.7 1.3-11.9 2 1.2 0.1-4.3
Hormone-related sites* 81 1.3 1.0-1.6 5 0.7 0.2-1.7 20 0.8 0.5-1.2 45 1.4 1.0-1.8
Breast 44 1.6 1.2-2.2 4 0.9 0.3-2.4 11 0.7 0.4-1.3 24 1.4 0.9-2.1
Other sites, total* 220 1.1 1.0-1.3 18 1.5 0.9-2.3 89 1.6 1.3-2.0 127 1.4 1.2-1.7
Stomach 16 1.4 0.8-2.2 1 1.6 0.0-8.6 10 3.2 1.5-5.8 13 2.3 1.2-3.9
Colon 43 1.5 1.1-2.1 6 2.7 1.0-5.8 15 1.5 0.9-2.5 18 1.2 0.7-1.8
Nonmelanoma 60 1.1 0.8-1.4 2 0.6 0.1-2.0 25 1.6 1.0-2.3 33 1.3 0.9-1.8
Testis 5 2.2 0.8-5.1 0 — — 2 2.7 0.0-9.9 1 2.2 0.0-12.4
NOTE. First year of follow-up excluded.
*Not all sites shown.

that cirrhosis patients have a reduced risk, again because of C,37 and patients with autoimmune hepatitis account for a
the disturbances in female hormones.31-33 However, the high proportion of the patients in the chronic hepatitis group.
overall increased risk of testis cancers could be a result of the In the Danish population, approximately 100 cases of hepati-
induced estrogen exposure.29 tis A and B are registered per year, and less than 80 are cases of
In contrast to other types of cirrhosis, less is known about hepatitis C. The high frequency of hepatitis B virus and
the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in primary biliary hepatitis C virus infections among individuals with alcoholic
cirrhosis. The previous studies of patients with primary liver diseases and alcohol-associated hepatocellular carci-
biliary cirrhosis have given conflicting cancer findings.3,7,9,11- noma in some countries has led to the suggestion that these
14,34,35 An increased risk of liver cancer has been reported in viruses may be implicated in the pathogenesis of hepatocellu-
some studies,9,11 but not in others.3,12,35 We found a statisti- lar carcinoma.38 However, these infections are rare in Den-
cally significant increase in the risk of liver cancer, higher mark. A comprehensive screening of blood donors in Den-
than in a recent large population-based study from Sweden mark has shown a prevalence of less than 0.04%,39 so it is not
that reported a nonsignificant relative risk of 2.9.7 However, likely that hepatitis infections play an important role in the
our estimate relied on only four cases. We could not confirm pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma in the present
the previously reported excess risk for the development of study.
breast cancer in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.12,13,33 The clearest finding of the present study was the excessive
A limitation of our study is the lack of information on risk of liver cancer found in all cirrhosis patients independent
diagnostic criteria and potential confounding factors. A of the type of cirrhosis. Thus, cirrhosis seems to be an
previous study indicated high data validity of the cirrhosis essential step in the induction of liver cancer. The hormonal
diagnosis in the NRP, but some misclassification between the and immune changes in cirrhosis did not affect the incidence
different types of cirrhosis probably exists, particularly be- of hormone cancers and cancers related to immunosuppres-
tween alcoholic and nonspecified cirrhosis.36 Therefore, we sion to any considerable degree. The elevated risk for breast
also searched for diagnoses of alcoholism in the NRP for cancer in alcoholic cirrhosis could be caused by a direct effect
those not registered with alcoholic cirrhosis to reduce this of alcohol rather than the elevated estrogen level. Cirrhosis
misclassification. The subcohorts of chronic hepatitis and patients experienced risk increase for many other cancers,
nonspecified cirrhosis are likely to include an overrepresenta- but several are heavily influenced by alcohol and tobacco use.
tion of alcoholic patients relative to the general population as
indicated by the increased risk for other alcohol-related Acknowledgment: The authors thank Anne Marie E. I.
cancers; however, these groups do not contain the same Larsen at the Division for Cancer Epidemiology for computer
proportion of alcoholic patients as the subgroup of alcoholic assistance.
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