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Primavera Risk Analysis PDF
Primavera Risk Analysis PDF
ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ
ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﻳﺮ ﻋﻨﺼــــﺮا ﻫﺎﻣﺎ وﺣﻴﻮﻳﺎ ﻻﺗﺨﺎذ اﻟﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳــــﺐ
اﻟﻤﺒﻨﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼت دﻗﻴﻘﺔ
وﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻫﺬا اﻟﻜﺘﺎب ﻧﺘﻨﺎول ﺗﻔ ﺼﻴﻠﻴﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ إدارة اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻟﻠﻤ ﺸﺮوﻋﺎت
ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻰ:
ﻳﺘﻨﺎول اﻟﻜﺘﺎب ﺗﻔ ﺼﻴﻠﻴﺎ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻰ ﺣﻴﺚ أﻧﻪ اﻟﻌﻨ ﺼﺮ
اﻷﺳـــﺎﺳـــﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﺪد ﻷﻫﺪاف اﻟﻤﺸـــﺮوع ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ واﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ واﻟﺬى
ﻧﺒﻨﻰ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ وﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ودراﺳﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ أﻫﺪاف اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع
وذﻟﻚ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻰ:
ﺗﺘﻨﻮع اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﺨﺎ ﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤ ﺸﺮوع واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨ ﺸﺎط أو ﻛﻤﻴﺔ
اﻟﻤﻮارد أو اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ وﻳﺘﻴﺢ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﺮوﻧﺔ ﺷﺪﻳﺪة ﻓﻲ ﺗﻮﻗﻴﻊ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ
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Primavera Risk Analysis ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ
اﻟﻤﺆﺛﺮة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﻧﺸــــﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺗﻨﻮع ﻃﺮق ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ أﺛﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ
ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط أو ﻛﻤﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﻮارد أو اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ
اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﻳﺮ
ﺗﺘﻨﻮع اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﻳﺮ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻴﺤﻬﺎ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻟﺘﺸﻤﻞ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺑﻜﺎﻓﺔ أﻧﻮاﻋﻬﺎ
ﻟﺘﻌﻄﻰ ﺻﻮرة ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ وﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ وﺗﺸﻤﻞ
ﻫﺬه اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﻳﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ
وأﻧﺼﺢ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻗﺮاءة ﻫﺬا اﻟﻜﺘﺎب ﺣﻴﺚ أﻧﻪ ﻛﺘﺎب ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻰ أن ﻳﻜﻮن
اﻟﻘﺎرئ ﻟﺪﻳﻪ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺒﺎدئ اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻠﻢ إدارة اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ
وﺧﺘﺎﻣﺎ أﺳﺄل ﷲ ﺳﺒﺤﺎﻧﻪ وﺗﻌﺎﻟﻰ أن ﻳﺤﻘﻖ اﻟﻘﺎرئ اﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪة اﻟﻤﺮﺟﻮة ﻣﻦ
ﻧﺸﺮ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻜﺘﺎب
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﻤﺤﺘ ﺎت
اﻟﻤﺤﺘ ﺎت
5 اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ
15 اﻟ ﺎب اﻷول :اﻟ ﺪا ﺔ
15 ﺗ ﻞ اﻟ ﻧﺎﻣﺞ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﻤﺤﺘ ﺎت
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﻤﺤﺘ ﺎت
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﻤﺤﺘ ﺎت
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﻤﺤﺘ ﺎت
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Primavera Risk Analysis
ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ
ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ
Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
ﺗﻨﺼﻴﺐ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ
اﻟﻤﻠﻒ اﻟﻤﻀــــﻐﻮط اﻟﺬى ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﺘﻨﺰﻳﻠﻪ ﺳــــﺎﺑﻘﺎ ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﻔﻜﻪ ﻓﻴﻈﻬﺮ ﻓﻮﻟﺪر
Primavera_Risk_Analysis _R87SP5
إﺿﻐﻂ Next
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺷﺎ ﺷﺔ ان ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤ ﺸﺮوع ﻟﻠﻘﺮاءة ﻓﻘﻂ وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻧ ﺴﺨﺔ
ﺗﺴﻨﻄﻴﻊ اﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ
اﺿﻐﻂ ﻣﻮاﻓﻖ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
ﻻﺣﻆ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ وﺟﻮد ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟـــــ Sheetsﻛﻞ ﺷﻴﺖ ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺑﻪ
ﺷﺎﺷﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻳﻪ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺷﻴﺖ ﺧﺎص ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻮارد أو ﺷﺒﻜﺔ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ
اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis اﻟﺒﺪاﻳﺔ
ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻫﺬه اﻟﺠﻮﻟﺔ اﻟﺴـــﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺗﻌﺮﻓﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ واﺟﻬﺔ اﻟﻤﺴـــﺘﺨﺪم وﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ
ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻠﻬﺎ واﻻﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ أو اﻟﺤﺬف ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ
وﻧﺒﺪأ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺼﻮل اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺔ ﺷﺮح اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ
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Primavera Risk Analysis
ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻰ
ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ
ﻧﺒﺪأ ﻣﻌﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﺜﺎل ﻋﻤﻠﻰ إ ﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣ ﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ وﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺧﻄﻮات
إﺿــــﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻤﺸــــﺮوع ﻧﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ إﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎت اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ وﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ
اﻷواﻣﺮ اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
وﺑﺎﻟ ﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟـــــ Tutorialاﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻳﻘﻮم اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﺎﻟ ﺸﺮح اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻰ
ﺧﻼل ﺧﻄﻮات ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﺒﺴﻄﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
0 Start project
10 FENCE
20 Buy fence materials
30 Dig post holes
40 Put up posts
50 Fix horizontals
60 Paint fence
70 GARDEN PATH
80 Buy path materials
90 Prepare ground
100 Lay path
110 GARDEN POND
120 Dig pond
130 Line pond
140 Fill pond
150 Buy fish
160 Ready for competition
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
Start ﺑﻌﺪ إﺿــــﺎﻓﺔ اﻷﻧﺸــــﻄﺔ ﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻧﻮع أول ﻧﺸــــﺎط إﻟﻰ
Milestone
وأﺧﺮ ﻧﺸﺎط اﻟﻰ Finish Milestone
Normal -1ﻧ ﺸﺎط ﻋﺎدى ﻳﻘﻮم اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﺤ ﺴﺎب ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ ﺑﺪاﻳﺔ وﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ
اﻟﻨﺸــــﺎط ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻤﺪﺗﻪ واﻟﺘﻘﻮﻳﻢ اﻟﻤﺨﺼــــﺺ ﻟﻪ وﻋﻼﻗﺎﺗﻪ ﺑﺒﺎﻗﻰ
اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻷﻧ ﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺮﻳﺪ ﻋﻤﻞ Summary Taskﻟﻬﺎ
ﻧﻀﻴﻒ ﻧﺸﺎط ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع Normalﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎ أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ
ﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻷ ﺷﻄﺔ وﺗﺮك اﻟﻨ ﺸﺎط اﻟﺬى أ ﺿﻔﻨﺎه ﺛﻢ ﻧ ﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ
Editﺛﻢ taskﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر Demote Taskأو إﺿﻐﻂ Ctrl + Alt +D
أو إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
-6اﻟﻨ ﺸﺎط ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع .... Monitorوﻫﺬا اﻟﻨﻮع ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨ ﺸﺎط ﻣ ﺸﺎﻳﻪ ﻟﻠـ
Summaryوﻟﻜﻦ ﻻﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﻤﻴﻠﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻮارد أو ﻋﻤﻞ ﻋﻼﻗﺎت ﻟﻪ
إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط :
ﻳﺘﻢ إﺿــــﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸــــﺎط ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻋﻤﻮد Remaining Durationأو
ﺑﺎﻟﻮﻗﻮف ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸـــﺎط ﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺷـــﺎﺷـــﺔ اﻟﺘﻔﺎﺻـــﻴﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻀـــﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ
Generalﺛﻢ Remaining Duration
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
: Calendars
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
اﻷﺟﺎزات اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ:
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺺ Calendarﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎط
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
ﻳﻤﻜﻦ إ ﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﺑﻴﻦ اﻷﻧ ﺸﻄﺔ ﺑﻌﺪة ﻃﺮق أوﻻ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺠﺪول
ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻴﺎر اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ال Detailsﻧﺨﺘﺎر Links
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ وﻧﻮع اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ واﻟـ Lag
وﻳﻤﻜﻦ أﻳﻀــﺎ إﺿــﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﺑﻴﻦ اﻷﻧﺸــﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷــﺎﺷــﺔ Gant Chart
وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺘﺤﺮﻳﻚ اﻟﻤﺎوس اﻟﻰ اﻟﻨﺸــــﺎط ﺣﺘﻰ ﻳﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻰ ? F-أو اﻟﻰ ﺑﺪاﻳﺔ
اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﺣﺘﻰ ﻳﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻰ ?S-
ﺛﻢ ﺳﺤﺐ اﻟﻌﻼﻣﺔ اﻟﻰ ﺑﺪاﻳﺔ أو ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوع ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis
ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ
ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ
Primavera Risk Analysis Resources
Resources
ﻧﺒﺪأ ﺑﺈدﺧﺎل IDﺛﻢ و ﺻﻒ ﻟﻠﻤﻮرد ﺛﻢ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ Typeﻧﺨﺘﺎر ﻧﻮع اﻟﻤﻮرد
ﻣﻦ اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎرات اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ وﻫﻰ:
• Labor
• Non Labor
• Material
• Team
• Expense
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ﻫﺬه اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎرات اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ وﻟﻜﻦ إذا أردت إﺧﺘﻴﺎر ﻧﻮع ﻣﻮرد ﺟﺪﻳﺪ وﻧﻔﺮض
أﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻳﺪ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻧﻮع Equipment
ﻣﻦ أﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ Advancedﻓﺘﻈﻬﺮ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Resources
ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ ﺣﺪوث ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴــﻌﺮ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻀــﺨﻢ أو ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ
ﺛﺒﺎت اﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻧﺬﻫﺐ اﻟﻰ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ Cost Uncertaintyوﻧﺨﺘﺎر واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺛﻼث
اﺧﺘﻴﺎرات ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ وﻫﻰ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ:
اﻻﺧﺘ ﻴﺎر اﻷول Noneﻧﺨ ﺘﺎره ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎ ﻟﺔ ﺛ ﺒﺎت اﻟﺘﻜﻠ ﻔﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪار ﻋﻤﺮ
اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع
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Primavera Risk Analysis Resources
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ﻫﺬا اﻟﻨﻮع ﻧﺴــــﺘﺨﺪﻣﻪ ﻟﺠﻤﻊ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻮارد ﻣﺜﻞ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺗﺤﺖ
ﻣﻮرد واﺣﺪ ﻳﺘﻢ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻪ وﺗﺨﺼﻴﺼﻪ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ واﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ ﻟﺘﻮﺿﻴﺢ
اﻟﻤﻮﺿﻮع:
ﻧﻔﺘﺮض أن ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻷﻋﻤﺎل اﻟﺒﻨﺎء ﻣﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ 2ﺑﻨﺎء وﻣﺴــــﺎﻋﺪ
وﺧﻼﻃﺔ أﺳﻤﻨﺖ
وﻻﺿــــﺎ ﻓﺔ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ اﻟﻌ ﻤﻞ اﻟﻰ ﻣﻮارد اﻟﻤﺸــــﺮوع ﻧﻀــــﻴﻒ ﻣﻮرد اﺳــــ ﻤﻪ
Bricklayingوﻧﺤﺪد ﻧﻮﻋﻪ اﻧﻪ Teamﺛﻢ ﻧ ﻀﻴﻒ اﻟﻤﻮارد اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﻳﻖ
ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﺪدﻧﺎﻫﺎ
Bricklayer , Labor and Cement mixer
ﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر اﻟﻤﻮرد Bricklayingوﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﺳــﻔﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸــﺎﺷــﺔ ﻧﺤﺪد
اﻟﻤﻮارد اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻟﻪ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ
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ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﻇﻬﻮر ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺟﺪول ﻛﻤﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﻮارد وﻳﺘﻢ اﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ
ﺳﻮاءا ﻟﻌﺮض اﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎت أو اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ وﻋﺮض اﻟﺠﺪول ﺑﺼﻮرة ﺗﺮاﻛﻤﻴﺔ أم ﻻ
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Resource Leveling
ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﺤﺪدة ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ وﺣﺪة زﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻮرد ﺛﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ
ﻋﻤﻞ ﺣﺴـــﺎﺑﺎت اﻟﺸـــﺒﻜﺔ وﺗﻮزﻳﻊ اﻟﻤﻮارد وﺟﺪت أن اﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ
اﻟﻤﻮرد أﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤ ﺘﺎح ﻓﻨﻘﻮم ﺑﻌ ﻤﻞ Resource Levelingﺣ ﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ
ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺗﻮارﻳﺦ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻷﻧﺸــــﻄﺔ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻷوﻟﻮﻳﺎت أﻗﻮم ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ
اﻟﻤﻮارد اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﺘﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ
وﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓــﺔ ﻛﻤﻴــﺎت اﻟﻤﻮارد اﻟﻤﺨﻄﻄــﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺰﻳــﺪ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﺘــﺎح ﻧﻌﺮض
Resource Graphوﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ال Timescaleاﻟﻰ ﻳﻮم واﺳــــﺘﻌﺮاض
اﻟﻤﻮارد
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اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻰ
-1أﺿﻒ اﻟﻤﻮارد اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮوع
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ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ
إﺿﺎﻓﺔ Baseline
ﻧﺤﺪد اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎرات اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻧﺴﺦ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻰ اﻟــــ Baselineﻛﻤﺎ
ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول
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remaining
> budget resource
resource
remaining
> original duration
duration
وﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺎﻟـ
Baseline
ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ اﻟـ Baselineﻧﺒﺪأ ﺑﺘﺴﺠﻴﻞ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ وﻗﺒﻞ ذﻟﻚ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Updating
ﺗﻢ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﻤﺸــــﺮوع ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ وﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟـ
2018 ﻳﻮﻟﻴﺔ25 ﻫﻲData Date
Actual Actual
Start Finish %
Start Finish
Start project 18-Jul-18 17-Jul-18 18-Jul-18 17-Jul-18 100%
FENCE 18-Jul-18 01-Aug-18
Buy fence materials 18-Jul-18 18-Jul-18 19-Jul-18 19-Jul-18 100%
Dig post holes 19-Jul-18 20-Jul-18 21-Jul-18 22-Jul-18
Put up posts 23-Jul-18 25-Jul-18 24-Jul-18 50%
Fix horizontals 26-Jul-18 30-Jul-18
Paint fence 31-Jul-18 01-Aug-18
GARDEN PATH 18-Jul-18 26-Jul-18
Buy path materials 18-Jul-18 18-Jul-18 18-Jul-18 18-Jul-18
Prepare ground 19-Jul-18 23-Jul-18 21-Jul-18 50%
Lay path 24-Jul-18 26-Jul-18
GARDEN POND 18-Jul-18 27-Jul-18
Dig pond 18-Jul-18 20-Jul-18 18-Jul-18 20-Jul-18
Line pond 23-Jul-18 24-Jul-18 24-Jul-18 30%
Fill pond 25-Jul-18 26-Jul-18
Buy fish 27-Jul-18 27-Jul-18
Ready for
competition 02-Aug-18 01-Aug-18
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Primavera Risk Analysis Updating
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﺤﺪد ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ اﻟـ Data Dateوﻓﻰ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ إﺧﺘﻴﺎر Use
Auto Progressوﻫﻮ اﺧﺘ ﻴﺎر ﻳﺠ ﻌﻞ اﻟﺒﺮ ﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻳﻘﻮم ﺑﺘ ﺤﺪ ﻳﺚ ﺑ ﻴﺎ ﻧﺎت
اﻟﻤﺸــــﺮوع ﺗﻠﻘــﺎﺋﻴــﺎ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻟﻠﺘﻮارﻳﺦ اﻟﻤﺨﻄﻄــﺔ وﻓﻰ ﺣــﺎل ﻫــﺬا اﻻﺧﺘﻴــﺎر
وﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ OKﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﻟﻨﺎ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ
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ﻣﻦ اﻟ ﺸﺎ ﺷﺔ اﻟ ﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر اﻷﻧ ﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺚ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﻰ ﻟﻬﺎ
أو ﻧﻀﻐﻂ أول اﺧﺘﻴﺎر ﻟﻌﻤﻞ Updatingﻳﺪوﻳﺎ
25 ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺳــﻨﻘﻮم ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺚ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﻳﺪوﻳﺎ واﺧﺘﻴﺎر Data Date
ﻳﻮﻟﻴﺔ 2018وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺚ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﺠﺪول اﻟﺴــــﺎﺑﻖ وﻟﻌﻤﻞ ذﻟﻚ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر
اﻟﻨ ﺸﺎط ﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺰء اﻟﺘﻔﺎ ﺻﻴﻞ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر Generalﺛﻢ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﻨ ﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻤﺌﻮﻳﺔ
ﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ % Completeﺛﻢ ﻧﻀــــﻐﻂ Datesوﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺈدﺧﺎل اﻟﺘﻮارﻳﺦ
اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Updating
ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺚ ﻧﻘﺎرن ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻰ واﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ ﺳـﻮاءا ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺠﺪول أو
ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ Bar Chart
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ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ
ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ:
ﻳﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ Primavera Risk Analysisﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوﻋﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ
اﻋﺪادﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺑﺮاﻣﺞ اﻟﺠﺪوﻟﺔ اﻷﺧﺮى ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﺎﻳﻜﺮوﺳﻮﻓﺖ ﺑﺮوﺟﻜﺖ و
ﺑﺮﻳﻤﺎﻓﻴﺮا P6
وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام إﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎت اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ودراﺳﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﻫﺎ
ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮارﻳﺦ واﻟﻤﻮارد واﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺛﻢ ﺗﺼﺪﻳﺮ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﻣﺮة
أﺧﺮى اﻟﻰ اﻟﺴﻮﻓﺖ وﻳﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻲ إﻋﺪاده وﻓﻰ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻧﺘﻌﺮف
ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ اﻷﺧﺮى
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ﺑﻌﺪ ذﻟﻚ إﻓﺘﺢ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﺎﻳﻜﺮو ﺳﻮﻓﺖ ﺑﺮوﺟﻜﺖ ﺗﺠﺪ اﻧﻪ ﺗﻢ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟ ـ Bar
اﻟﺘـﺎﻟﻰ ﻟﻠﺒﺮﻧــﺎﻣﺞ واﻟــﺬى ﻳﺤﺘﻮى ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋــﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷواﻣﺮ اﻟﺨــﺎﺻـــــﺔ
ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ
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وﺑﻀــــــﻐــﻂ Open
ﺗﻈﻬﺮ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ:
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اﻟﺸـﺎﺷـﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر اﻟﻮﺣﺪة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ وﻋﺪد ﺳـﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﻌﻤﻞ واﺧﺘﻴﺎر رؤﻳﺔ
Logﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﻫﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮوع ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ
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ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎل رﻏﺒﺘ ﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ اد ﺧﺎل ﻫﺬه اﻟﺒﻴ ﻨﺎت ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل Primavera Risk
Analysisﻧﻠﻐﻰ ﻫﺬا اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎر
اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎر Alternative duration distributionﻓﻲ ﺣﺎل اﺧﺘﻴﺎرﻧﺎ ﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ
اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﺜﻼث ﻧﻘﺎط ﻟﺒﻌﺾ اﻷﻧ ﺸﻄﺔ ﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻟﺬى ﻳﺤﺘﻮى ﻫﺬا
اﻻﺧﺘ ﻴﺎر وﻓﻰ ﻫﺬه اﻟ ﺤﺎ ﻟﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ اﻋﺘ ﻤﺎد ﻫﺬا اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ وإﻟ ﻐﺎء اﻟﺜﻼث ﻧ ﻘﺎط
ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻟﻪ
وﻓﻰ أﺳﻔﻞ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ اﺧﺘﻴﺎرات اﻟـ IDواﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎ رات ﻫﻲ:
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ﻧﻀﻐﻂ Probabilistic
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Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﻧﺤﺘﺎج اﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﻴﺮاد ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت أﻋﻤﺪة User Define Fieldوﻟﺬﻟﻚ
ﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﻟﻚ ﻫﺬا اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﺧﺘﻴﺎر اﻷﻋﻤﺪة اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪدﻫﺎ ﻓﻘﻂ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
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Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻫﺬه اﻟ ﺸﺎ ﺷﺔ ﻧﺘﺎﺑﻊ اﺣ ﺼﺎﺋﻴﺎت ﻋﻦ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤ ﺸﺮوع وﻓﻰ
ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد أﻳﺔ ﻣﺸﻜﻼت
ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴــﺎﺑﻖ وﺗﺤﺖ Tasksﻧﺠﺪ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﺸــﻜﻼت وﺗﻔﺼــﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ
ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ
ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴــﺎﺑﻖ ﻧﺠﺪ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻷﻧﺸــﻄﺔ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻣﺸــﻜﻠﺔ أن اﻟﺘﻮارﻳﺦ اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ
ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟـ Data Dateوﻫﺬا ﻻ ﻳﻘﺒﻠﻪ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻓﻴﻘﻮم ﺑﺈزاﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮارﻳﺦ اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
90
Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
91
Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
92
Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
93
Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
94
Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ اﻻﺳــﻢ وﻛﻠﻤﺔ اﻟﺴــﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺪدة ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﻋﺪة اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﻳﺘﻢ اﻟﺪﺧﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ
اﻟـ EPSوﻓﺘﺢ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع اﻟﺬى ﺗﺨﺘﺎره
95
Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
ﻗﻢ ﺑﻀﺒﻂ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺮور ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎرات ﺛﻢ
إﺿﻐﻂ OK
وﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻜﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ اﻟـ Importوﻳﻔﺘﺢ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع
96
Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
ﺛﻢ ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺨﻄﻮة ﻫﺎﻣﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻌﻠﻨﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﺎﻳﻜﺮوﺳﻮﻓﺖ وﻫﻰ ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ
Import log
وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ Reportﻧﺨﺘﺎر Import Logأو ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ Fileﻧﺨﺘﺎر
Import Log
97
Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
اﻟ ﺸﺎ ﺷﺔ اﻟ ﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗ ﺸﺮح ﻣﺎﺗﻢ أﺛﻨﺎء ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ اﻟـــــ Importوﻣﺎﺗﻢ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻠﻪ ﻣﻦ
ﺑ ﻴﺎ ﻧﺎت واﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻜ ﺘﺐ ﻗﺒﻠ ﻬﺎ WARNINGوﻳ ﺠﺐ ﻣﺮا ﻋﺎة ﻫﺬه اﻟﺘ ﺤﺬﻳﺮات
ﺑﺪﻗﺔ
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺗﻢ ﺣﺬف ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﻴﻦ ﻻﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﺘﺴﺒﺐ ﻓﻲ Loop
أﻳﻀﺎ ﻧ ﺸﺎط ﻣﺪﺗﻪ 17.5ﻳﻮم ﺗﻢ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮه اﻟﻰ 18ﻷﻧﻨﺎ اﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ
ﻳﻮم وﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺴـــﻤﻮح ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺴـــﻮر ...وﻓﻰ ﺣﺎل رﻏﺒﺘﻨﺎ ﺑﻮﺟﻮد أﺟﺰاء ﻣﻦ اﻟﻴﻮم
ﻧﺨﺘﺎر اﻟﻮﺣﺪة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ
ﻧﺠﺪ ﺗﺤﺬﻳﺮ أﺧﺮ ﺑﻮﺟﻮد ﺗﻮارﻳﺦ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟـ Data Date
وﻧﻜﺮر أﻧﻪ ﻳﺠﺐ ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺘﺤﺬﻳﺮات ﺑﺪﻗﺔ ﺷــــﺪﻳﺪة وﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ
اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ
ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ اﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﻗﺒﻞ وﺑﻌﺪ اﻟ ـ Importﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ
Insertﻧﺨﺘﺎر Sheetﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر Import Check
98
Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
99
Primavera Risk Analysis Import and Export
100
Primavera Risk Analysis
ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ
Schedule Check
Primavera Risk Analysis Schedule Check
ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ:
ﺑﻌﺪ اﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎء ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻰ ﺳﻮاءا ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل Primavera Risk
Analysisأو ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل Importﻣﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ P6أو MS Project
ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺧﻄﻮة ﻫﺎﻣﺔ ﺟﺪا وﻫﻰ ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪم وﺟﻮد
ﻋﻴﻮب ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﺜﻞ Open Endأو Out of sequence task
وﻏﻴﺮﻫﺎ
101
Primavera Risk Analysis Schedule Check
102
Primavera Risk Analysis Schedule Check
103
Primavera Risk Analysis Schedule Check
اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎر
104
Primavera Risk Analysis Schedule Check
أﺛﻨﺎء إﺿـــﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﻟﻸﻧﺸـــﻄﺔ وﻓﻰ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم ﺗﺄﻛﺪﻧﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ
ﻧﺤﺪد Categoryﻟﻬﺬه اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻻﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ وﺗﺄﻛﻴﺪ أو ﺗﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﻫﺬه
اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻻﺣﻘﺎﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻮرة
وﻧﺴﺘﻜﻤﻞ اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎرات
105
Primavera Risk Analysis Schedule Check
ﻣﻦ أﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر إذا ﻛﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻳﺪ ﻋﺮض ﻫﺬا اﻟﺸﺮح ﻟﻠﻨﻘﺎط ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ
أم ﻻ وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎر
\
106
Primavera Risk Analysis Schedule Check
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Primavera Risk Analysis Schedule Check
108
Primavera Risk Analysis
ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ
ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺮ
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ:
أﻵن ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ زﻣﻨﻰ ﺗﻢ اﻋﺪاده وﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺘﻪ وﻧﻘﻞ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ اﻟﻰ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ
Primavera Risk analysisوذﻟﻚ ﺗﻤﻬﻴﺪا ﻟﺒﺪأ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ
واﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺠﻮاﻧﺐ اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻬﺬه اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ وإدﺧﺎل ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ
ﺛﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺘﻬﺎ وﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ وﻋﺮض ﻛﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﻳﺮ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ
وﻧﺘﻨﺎول ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ وﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ
اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﻮﻧﺖ ﻛﺎرﻟﻮ
Duration Uncertainty
أﺛ ﻨﺎء إ ﻋﺪاد اﻟﺒﺮ ﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻰ وﺣﺴــــﺎب اﻟ ﻤﺪد اﻟﺰﻣﻨ ﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻧﺸــــ ﻄﺔ ﻃﺒ ﻘﺎ
ﻟﻼﻧ ﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ واﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻮارد وﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺤﺴــــﺎب
اﻟﻤﺪة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻨ ﺸﺎط اﻟﺤﻔﺮ ﻓﻴﻜﻮن اﻓﺘﺮا ﺿﻨﺎ أﻧﻪ إذا ﺳﺎر ﻛﻞ ﺷﻲء ﻋﻠﻰ
ﻣــﺎﻳﺮام ﻓﺴــــﻮف ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣــﺪة اﻟﺤﻔﺮ 10أﻳــﺎم وﻟﻜﻦ ﻗــﺪ ﻧﻮاﺟــﻪ ﺑﻌﺾ
اﻟﺼــــﻌﻮﺑﺎت ﻣﺜﻞ وﺟﻮد ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺻــــﺨﺮ ﻳﺔ ﺣﺘﻰ وﻟﻮ ﻟﻢ ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮ
اﻟﺠ ﺴﺎت وﺑﻬﺬا ﻗﺪ ﺗﺼﻞ ﻣﺪة اﻟﺤﻔﺮ ﻓﻲ أﺳﻮأ اﻟﻈﺮوف اﻟﻰ 18ﻳﻮم وﺑﻴﻦ
اﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ اﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ واﻟﻤﺘﺸــــﺎﺋﻢ ﻳﻜﻮن ﻫﻨﺎك ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻟﺤﺴــــﺎب اﻟﻤﺪة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ
اﻷﻛﺜﺮ اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ وﻟﻴﻜﻦ 12ﻳﻮم
110
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
وﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﻜﻮن ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﺸــــﺎط اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ﺛﻼث ﻣﺪد ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺪة اﺣﺘﻤﺎل
ﻟﻠﺤﺪوث وﺣ ﺴﺎب اﻟﻤﺪة ﺑﻬﺬه اﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻳ ﺴﻤﻰ Three Point Estimate
أو ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ Triangle
اﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻫﻲ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ
ﻓﻲ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻤﺸــﺮوع وﻫﻰ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺷــﺎﺋﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸــﺎط
واﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺪة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ
ﺗﻮ ﺟﺪ ﻃﺮق أﺧﺮى ﻟﻠﺘ ﻌﺎ ﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ اﻻﺣﺘ ﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻟ ﻤﺪة اﻟﻨﺸــــﺎط ﻣ ﺜﻞ
Betapertو Normal Distributionوﻏﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎرات واﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة
ﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ Primavera Risk Analysis
111
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
112
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸــﺎﺷــﺔ اﻟﺴــﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ﻳﻤﻴﻦ اﻟﺸــﺎﺷــﺔ ﻧﻤﻸ
ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺪد ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻷﻗﻞ واﻷدﻧﻰ واﻷﻛﺜﺮ اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ
ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ذﻟﻚ أﻳﻀــﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﺳــﻔﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸــﺎﺷــﺔ وﺑﺎﻟﻀــﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ
Risk and Uncertaintyﺛﻢ Duration Uncertaintyﺛﻢ إﺧﺘﻴﺎر On
ﻓﺘﻈﻬﺮ ﻟﻨﺎ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺤﺪد ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﻬﺎ اﻟﻤﺪد اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎط
113
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
Chimney rebuild 4 4 8
Recover roof 8 10 20
Dismantle scaffold 3 4 6
Re-wire 4 4 6
Joinery 4 4 5
Plaster 4 4 5
Plumbing, etc. 4 6 8
Exterior work 3 4 6
114
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
115
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸــﺎﺷــﺔ اﻟﺴــﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﺤﺪد اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎر اﻷﻫﻢ وﻫﻮ ﻋﺪد اﻟــــــ Iterations
اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻻت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻘﻮم اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﺤﺴﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل 1000
Stepﻫﺬا اﻻﺧﺘ ﻴﺎر ﺑﺎﻟﻀــــﻐﻂ ﻋﻠ ﻴﻪ ﻣﺮة ﺗﺘﻢ أول ﻣ ﺤﺎو ﻟﺔ واﻟﻤ ﺤﺪدة
ﺑﺎﻟﺨﻄﻮات ﻣﻦ 1ﻷى 3وﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ذﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟـ Bar Chartﺣﻴﺚ ﻧﺠﺪ
116
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
ان اﻷﻧ ﺸﻄﺔ ﺗﺤﺮﻛﺖ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻮارﻳﺦ اﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪة وﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤ ﺴﺎر
اﻟﺤﺮج
ﻧﻀــــﻐﻂ Stepﻣﺮة أﺧﺮى وﻧ ﺘﺎﺑﻊ اﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮات وﻣﻊ ﻛﻞ ﻣ ﺤﺎو ﻟﺔ ﻳﻈﻬﺮ رﻗﻢ
اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻻت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ
ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ
ﺑ ﻌﺪ اﺟﺮاء ﻋﻤﻠ ﻴﺔ اﻟﻤ ﺤﺎ ﻛﺎة ﺑﺎﺳــــﺘ ﺨﺪام ﻣﻮ ﻧﺖ ﻛﺎرﻟﻮ واﺟﺮاء ﻣ ﺌﺎت
اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻻت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺌﺎت اﻟ ﺴﻴﻨﺎرﻳﻮﻫﺎت ﻧﺒﺪأ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ وﻣﻦ
ﺧﻼل ﻫﺬا اﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻧﺤﺎول اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬه اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ
اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻧﺘﻬﺎء اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﻓﻲ ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ ﻣﺤﺪد
ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﺑﻔﺮﺻﺔ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل %80
ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﺑﻔﺮﺻﺔ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل %50
اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ وﺗﻜﺮارﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻻت اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ
اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮا ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع
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Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
وﻧ ﺒﺪأ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺮض اﻟﺘ ﻘﺎرﻳﺮ اﻟ ﺨﺎﺻــــﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﻠ ﻴﻞ اﻟ ﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ وذ ﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋ ﻤﺔ
Reportﻧﻀﻐﻂ Distribution Graphأو ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷوﺳــﻂ ﻳﺤﺘﻮى ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﺳــﻢ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻰ واﻟﺬي ﻳﻌﺒﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﻮر Xﻋﻦ
اﻟﺒ ﻴﺎ ﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻰ اﺧﺘﺮﺗ ﻬﺎ ﻣﺜﻼ Finish Dateوﻣﺤﻮر Yﻳﻌﺮض ﺗﻜﺮار ﻫﺬا
اﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻤﺤﻮﻻت اﻟﺘﻲ أﺟﺮﻳﻨﺎﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳــﺒﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸــﻜﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة 1000ﻣﺮة وﺑﺤﺴــﺎب
ﻧ ﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻤﺸــــﺮوع ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ 7ﻣﺎﻳﻮ ﻧ ﺠﺪ أ ﻧﻪ ﺗﻜﺮ ر 30ﻣﺮة ﺧﻼل اﻷﻟﻒ
ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ
119
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﻧﺨﺘﺎر Finish Dateوﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺎﻧﺐ اﻷﻳﻤﻦ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر Entire
Project
أﻳﻀﺎ ﻟﻮ أردﻧﺎ ﺣﺴﺎب اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻧﺘﻬﺎء اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﻓﻲ ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﻣﺜﻼ 7ﻣﺎﻳﻮ
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺤﻮر Xﻧﻘﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ 7ﻣﺎﻳﻮ ﺛﻢ ﺑﺨﻂ رأﺳﻰ ﺣﺘﻰ
120
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
121
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
122
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
123
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
Criticality Index
أﺛﻨﺎء ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺎﺟﺮاء ﻣﺌﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻻت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﺪد اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ
ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﻤــﺪة اﻷﻗــﻞ واﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺒﻘــﺎ ﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ اﻟــﺬى أﺧﺘﺮﻧــﺎه ..ﻳﺘﻐﻴﺮ
اﻟﻤ ﺴﺎر اﻟﺤﺮج وﻗﺪ ﻳﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻧ ﺸﺎط ﻣﻦ ﻧ ﺸﺎط ﻟﻪ ﺳﻤﺎﺣﻴﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻧ ﺸﺎط ﺣﺮج
ﻣﺮات ﻋﺪﻳﺪة
ﻫﺬا اﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻳﺤﺪد ﻟﻨﺎ ﻧﺴــﺒﺔ ﺗﻜﺮار وﻗﻮع اﻟﻨﺸــﺎط ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴ ـﺎر اﻟﺤﺮج ﻋﻠﻰ
ﻣﺪار ﻣ ﺌﺎت اﻟﻤ ﺤﺎوﻻت...و ﻫﺬا ﻣﺎﻧﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠ ﻴﻪ Criticality Indexوﻫﻰ
ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﺘﺮاوح ﺑﻴﻦ ﺻﻔﺮ و 100
ﻧﺴـــﺒﺔ ﺻـــﻔﺮ ﺗﻌﻨﻰ أﻧﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻻت ﻟﻢ ﻳﻘﻊ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻨﺸـــﺎط ﻋﻠﻰ
اﻟﻤﺴﺎر اﻟﺤﺮج ﻣﺮة واﺣﺪة
124
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺎﻧﺐ اﻷﻳﻤﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ Risk Outputs
ﺛﻢ اﺧﺘﻴﺎر Criticality Indexﺛﻢ اﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺴﻬﻢ اﻷﻳﻤﻦ ﻻﺿﺎﻓﺘﻪ
125
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
126
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
Risk Schedule
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Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
128
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
ﺗﻜﻮن ﻫﺬه اﻟﺒ ﻴﺎ ﻧﺎت ﺧﺎﻟ ﻴﺔ ﻗ ﺒﻞ اﺟﺮاء ﺗﺤﻠ ﻴﻞ اﻟﻤ ﺨﺎﻃﺮ Run Risk
Analysisإذا ﻟﻢ ﺗﻜﻦ ﺧﺎﻟ ﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﻗﻮف ﻓﻲ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻛﻞ ﻋﻤﻮد وإﺧ ﺘﺎره
ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎوس ﺛﻢ إﺿﻐﻂ Delete
ﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ Riskﻧﺨﺘﺎر Risk Percentileﻓﺘﻈﻬﺮ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺳﻮف ﻧﻀﻴﻒ ﻧﻮع ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﺟﺪﻳﺪ P20وﻟﻌﻤﻞ ذﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ
أﺧﺮ ﺻــﻒ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸــﺎﺷــﺔ اﻟﺴــﺎﺑﻘﺔ )وﻫﻮ ﺻــﻒ ﺧﺎﻟﻰ ﻣﻦ
اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت( ﻧﻀــﻐﻂ أﺳــﻔﻞ Typeوﻧﺨﺘﺎر Finishﺛﻢ أﺳــﻔﻞ Percentile
ﻧﺨﺘﺎر 20وﺗﺤﺖ Task Fieldﻧﺠﺪ أﻧﻪ ﻛﺘﺐ P20 finishوﺗﺤﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ
Add Columnﻧﺨﺘﺎر Yesوذﻟﻚ ﻻﺿـــﺎﻓﺔ User Fieldﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺑﺎﺳـــﻢ
P20 finish
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Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
130
Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis
ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ
ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ:
ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﻨﺎ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻤﺪد اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺑﺪاﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻰ
ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ اﻟﻤﺪة وﺻﻮﻻ اﻟﻰ اﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻳﺘﻴﺢ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ
إﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﺟﺮاء ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﻜﻤﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﻮارد /اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ
ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد ﻋﺪم ﺗﺄﻛﺪ واﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﻛﻤﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﻮارد ﻋﻦ اﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎت
اﻟﻤﺨﻄﻄﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ
وﻟﺘﻮﺿﻴﺢ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﻮارد واﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻧﺒﺪأ ﻓﻰ ﻣﺜﺎل ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ Helpإﺿﻐﻂ Open Sampleﺛﻢ إﺧﺘﺮ ﻣﺸﺮوع
Risk Toutrial 1.planﺛﻢ Openو Save asﺑﺎﺳﻢ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ
ﻧﺒﺪأ ﺑﺈﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻮرد ﺟﺪﻳﺪ وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ Planﻧﻀﻐﻂ Resourcesﺛﻢ
ﻧﻀﻴﻒ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺎﺳﻢ Labor Riskوﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻮرة
133
Primavera Risk Analysis Resources an Cost
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Primavera Risk Analysis Resources an Cost
ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ وﻓﻰ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ Distribution
Triangleﺛﻢ ﻧﻜﺘﺐ اﻟﻘﻴﻢ Min, Most Likely and Maximumوﻧﻜﺮر
ﻫﺬه اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ﻟﺒﺎﻗﻰ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ
135
Primavera Risk Analysis Resources an Cost
ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﻧﺤﺪد ﻛﻤﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﻮرد اﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻬﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل %80أو %50أو
أي ﻧﺴـــﺒﺔ ﻧﺤﺪدﻫﺎ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻜﻮن ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎت واﺣﺼـــﺎﺋﻴﺎت ﻋﻦ اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت
ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎء اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﺑﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﺤﺪدة ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﻮرد
وﻟﻌﺮض اﻟﺮﺳــﻢ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻰ اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸــﺎﺷــﺔ اﻟﺴــﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﺿـﻤﻦ
ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻮارد ﻧ ﻀﻐﻂ Costأو ﻣﻦ أ ﺳﻔﻞ اﻟ ﺸﺎ ﺷﺔ ﻧ ﻀﻐﻂ Taskﺛﻢ
Costﻓﺘﻈﻬﺮ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ:
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Primavera Risk Analysis Resources an Cost
137
Primavera Risk Analysis
ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ
Sensitivity Analysis
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻫﻮ أﺳﻠﻮب وﺗﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد
ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻧﺤﺪد ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﻪ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ أﻋﻠﻰ
ﻋﻠﻰ أﻫﺪاف اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ واﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ وﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ
اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺗﻨﺎزﻟﻴﺎ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع
وﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل Tornado Diagram
وﻹﺟﺮاء Sensitivity Analysisﻧﺒﺪأ أوﻻ ﺑﺎﺟﺮاء ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻣﻦ
ﺧﻼل Runﺛﻢ Risk Analysis
ﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ Reportﻧﺨﺘﺎر Tornado Graphأو ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ
140
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﺮض ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺳﻮاءا ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ أو
ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺘﻌﺮﻳﻔﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل Risk Register
ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﻌﺮض ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ وﻧﺒﺪأ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ
اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ Duration sensitivity
ﻓﻴﻌﺮض ﻟﻨﺎ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻰ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻃﺒﻔﺎ ﻟﺪرﺟﺔ أرﺗﺒﺎﻃﻬﺎ ﺑﻤﺪة
اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﻓﺎﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﺬى ﻟﻪ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ارﺗﺒﺎط أﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻤﺪة اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع أي أن
ﻣﺪة اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﺔ ﻷى ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻰ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻳﻜﻮن ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﻪ ﻓﻲ
اﻷﻋﻠﻰ وﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺗﻨﺎزﻟﻴﺎ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ارﺗﺒﺎﻃﻪ ﺑﻤﺪة اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع
اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
142
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
143
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
ﻫﺬا اﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻳﺮﺗﺐ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﻜﺮارﻫﺎ ﻛﺄﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺣﺮﺟﺔ ﺧﻼل
اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﻻت أﺛﻨﺎء ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﻟﻮ ﻛﺎن ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻻت 1000ﺛﻢ ﺗﻜﺮر ﻧﺸﺎط ﻛﻨﺸﺎط
ﺣﺮج 1000ﻣﺮة ﺗﻜﻮن اﻟـ %100 Criticality Index
وإذا ﺗﻜﺮر اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻛﻨﺸﺎط ﺣﺮج 900ﻣﺮة ﻳﻜﻮن ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ %90
144
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
وﻳﻔﻴﺪ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ إذا ﻛﺎن ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ
ﻟﻪ Criticality Indexﻋﺎﻟﻰ ﻓﻴﺘﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻫﺬا اﻻﺧﺘﻼف ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ
ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ
145
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
146
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
ﻻﺣﻈﻨﺎ ﺗﻨﻮع اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﻳﺮ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ وﻫﺬا اﻟﺘﻨﻮع ﻣﻔﻴﺪ ﺟﺪا
ﻓﻲ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ واﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪة أو ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ
اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع وﺑﺎﻟﻄﺒﻊ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮورة اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻛﻞ اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﻳﺮ وﻟﻜﻦ اﻟﻤﻬﻢ ﻫﻮ
ﻓﻬﻢ اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﻳﺮ وﻣﺪﻟﻮﻻﺗﻬﺎ ﺟﻴﺪا واﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻷﻧﺴﺐ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﻤﺸﺮوﻋﻚ
147
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
وﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﻌﻮدة اﻟﻰ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻧﻼﺣﻆ وﺟﻮد ﻋﻼﻣﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ داﺋﺮة
زرﻗﺎء ﺑﺠﻮار اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮ Tornadoﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ
اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ:
148
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﺑﻜﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﻛﻤﺎ
ﺷﺮﺣﻨﺎ وﻟﻜﻦ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻫﺬا اﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻧﺸﺎط ﺑﺒﻘﻴﺔ أﻧﺸﻄﺔ
اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع أو ﺑﺎﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﻪ وﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ
وﻟﻌﻤﻞ ذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺎﺷﺔ Tornadoوﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ Edit
ﻧﺨﺘﺎر Task Sensitivity Settingsأو ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ وﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ
Riskﻧﺨﺘﺎر Risk Analysis Optionsﺛﻢ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ Sensitivity
149
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
ﻧﻼﺣﻆ وﺟﻮد إﺳﻢ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻓﻲ أﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻰ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ
اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻋﺒﺎرة ﻋﻦ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻨﺸﺎط واﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ اﺧﺘﺮﺗﻬﺎ وﻓﻰ
ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﻫﻲ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎط
150
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
151
Primavera Risk Analysis Sensitivity Analysis
152
Primavera Risk Analysis
ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺷﺮ
Probabilistic Branches
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
Probabilistic Branches
153
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
اﻷن ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﻣﺴﺎران ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮوع ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺣﺪوث ﻣﺴﺎر واﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻨﺴﺐ
اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ
Task Duration
Start 0
Excavate 10
Lay pipes 15
Test 5
Pass 1
Fail 1
Backfilling 10
Find defected pipes 3
Replace defected pipes 5
Retest 4
Completion 0
154
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
155
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
156
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
ﻧﻼﺣﻆ وﺟﻮد اﻟﻨﺴﺐ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟـ Bar Chart
ﺑﻌﺪ ذﻟﻚ ﻧﺠﺮى ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ
Riskﻧﻀﻐﻂ Run Risk Analysis
157
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
158
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
159
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻰ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﻗﺮاءة اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت وﻫﻰ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ
ﻫﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ أﻧﻪ ﺧﻼل اﻻﻟﻒ ﺳﻴﻨﺎرﻳﻮ ﻳﺘﻜﺮر اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻧﺠﺎح
اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر 800ﻣﺮة ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ %80ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﺪدﻧﺎﻫﺎ
وﻳﺘﻜﺮر ﺳﻴﻨﺎرﻳﻮ ﻓﺸﻞ اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر 200ﻣﺮة ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ %20
وﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻧﻪ ﻻﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺗﻮارﻳﺦ أﺧﺮى ﺑﻴﻦ ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع
ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﺠﺎح اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر واﻷﺧﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎل ﻓﺸﻠﻪ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ
160
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
161
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ اﻟﻤﺮﺑﻊ أﺳﻔﻞ ﻛﻠﻤﺔ Onﺛﻢ ﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ
اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻮﺟﻮد اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻣﻦ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ Probability this task exists
162
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
ﻫﺬا اﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎر ﻳﺘﺠﺎﻫﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎ وﻳﺤﺬف اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﺑﻴﻨﻪ وﺑﻴﻦ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ
ﻓﻴﻜﻮن اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ
\
ﻛﻤﺎ ﻧﻼﺣﻆ أﻧﻪ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺠﺎﻫﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ وﺣﺬف ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺗﻪ
أﺻﺒﺤﺖ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﺪم وﺟﻮد ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﺤﻔﺮ
واﻷﺳﺎﺳﺎت ﻓﻴﻈﻬﺮوا ﻟﻨﺎ أﻧﻬﻢ ﻳﺒﺪأون ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺘﻮﻗﻴﺖ
وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻋﻨﺪ وﺟﻮد ﻧﺸﺎط اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ واﺧﺘﻴﺎرﻧﺎ ﺣﺬف اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﻻﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ
إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻋﻼﻗﺎت إﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺣﺬف اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﻣﻊ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط
163
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﺘﻮاﺟﺪ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﺑﻌﻼﻗﺎﺗﻪ وﺗﺘﺤﺪد ﻣﺪة اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﻃﺒﻘﺎ
ﻟﺘﻮاﺟﺪ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط
164
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
165
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
Probabilistic Links
وﻟﺘﻮﺿﺢ اﻷﻣﺮ ﺑﻤﺜﺎل..ﻧﻔﺮض أن ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ أن ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ أﻧﺸﻄﺔ & A, B
C
اﻟﻨﺸﺎط Cﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻌﻼﻗﺔ FSﻣﻊ ﻛﻼ ﻣﻦ A & Bوﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت
اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺘﻴﻦ ﻓﻘﻂ إﻣﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺘﻪ ﺑـ Bأو A
وﻧﻔﺮض أن ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺣﺪوث اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ Aو Cﻫﻲ %20وﻧﺴﺒﺔ
اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ Bو Cﻫﻲ %80
166
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﺒﺪأ ﺑﻀﻐﻂ اﻟﻤﺮﺑﻊ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻛﻠﻤﺔ Onﺛﻢ ﺗﺤﺖ
Probabilityﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ وﻓﻰ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد أﻛﺜﺮ
ﻣﻦ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻳﺤﺪد ﻣﺠﻤﻮع اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺨﺎﻧﺔ ب %100
167
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
168
Primavera Risk Analysis Probabilistic Branches
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻰ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻟﻨﺎ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﺒﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎط C
ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﺮر وﺟﻮد اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ 800 A&Cﻣﺮة ﻣﻦ اﻻﻟﻒ ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ
% 80
وﺗﻜﺮروﺟﻮد اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ 200 B&Cﻣﺮة ﻣﻦ اﻷﻟﻒ ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ %20
169
Primavera Risk Analysis
ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻫﺬه اﻟﺨﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ ﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﻤﺪة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ واﻟﺬى
ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪه ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻛﻨﻮع ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ...ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻴﺢ ﻟﻨﺎ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج
ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺗﻮزﻳﻌﺎت ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﻣﺤﺪدة أو أﻛﻮاد ﺗﺘﻴﺢ
اﺧﺘﻴﺎر ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻛﻮد
170
Primavera Risk Analysis Templated Quick Risk
ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل وﻣﻦ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ Field Nameﻧﻜﺘﺐ Risk Level
وﺗﺤﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ Typeﻧﺨﺘﺎر Codeﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﺳﻔﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ
ﻧﻀﻴﻒ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ أﻧﻮاع ﻣﻦ درﺟﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ Low, Medium And Highﻛﻤﺎ
ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ
171
Primavera Risk Analysis Templated Quick Risk
ﺑﻌﺪ ذﻟﻚ ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ درﺟﺔ اﻟﺨﻄﻮرة ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎط وﻟﻌﻤﻞ ذﻟﻚ ﻧﻈﻬﺮ أوﻻ
ﻋﻤﻮد اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺬى أﻧﺸﺄﻧﺎه ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻄﻮة اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ
Formatﻧﺨﺘﺎر Columnsﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر User Fieldوﺑﻌﺪ ذﻟﻚ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر
Risk Levelﺛﻢ ﻧﻀﻴﻒ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ
172
Primavera Risk Analysis Templated Quick Risk
ﺑﻌﺪ اﻇﻬﺎر ﻋﻤﻮد ﻟﻠﻜﻮد اﻟﺬى أﻧﺸﺄﻧﺎه ﺑﺎﺳﻢ Risk Levelﻧﻀﻴﻒ ﻟﻜﻞ
ﻧﺸﺎط درﺟﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﺪدﻧﺎﻫﺎ ﻟﺘﻜﻮن ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ
173
Primavera Risk Analysis Templated Quick Risk
ﺗﺤﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ Taskﻳﺘﺤﺪد أﺗﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﻚ ﻋﺪد اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ درﺟﺔ
اﻟﺨﻄﻮرة
ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻋﺪد اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻬﺎ دﻟﺮﺟﺔ ﺧﻄﻮرة Lowﻫﻮ 9أﻧﺸﻄﺔ
174
Primavera Risk Analysis Templated Quick Risk
ﺛﻢ ﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﻘﻴﻢ Min , Most Likely & Maximumﻟﻜﻞ درﺟﺔ ﺧﻄﻮرة
ﻣﻦ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ Correlationﻧﺤﺪد درﺟﺔ اﻻرﺗﻴﺎط ﺑﻴﻦ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ
ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ذات درﺟﺔ ﺧﻄﻮرة Levelإذا
ﺣﺪدﻧﺎ اﻟـ Correlationﺑـ %100ﻫﺬا ﻣﻌﻨﺎه وﺟﻮد ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻦ ﻛﻞ
اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ وﻋﺪدﻫﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل 9
أﻧﺸﻄﺔ
وﻓﻰ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﻮم اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ واﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﻮﻧﺖ
ﻛﺎرﻟﻮ ﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻰ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻓﺎذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻟﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﻗﺪ
أﺳﻔﺮت ﻋﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ اﻟﺤﺪ أﻷدﻧﻰ ﻷول ﻧﺸﺎط Lowوﻧﻈﺮا ﻟﻮﺟﻮد ارﺗﺒﺎط
ﻳﻜﻮن ﺣﺴﺎب ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻟﺒﺎﻗﻰ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع Lowﻫﻮ %100
اﻟﺤﺪ اﻷدﻧﻰ أﻳﻀﺎ وﻫﺬا ﻣﻌﻨﻰ Correlationوﺳﻴﻜﻮن ﻫﻨﺎك ﺷﺮح ﻣﻮﺳﻊ
ﻟﻬﺬا اﻟﻤﻮﺿﻮع ﻓﻲ ﻓﺼﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ
175
Primavera Risk Analysis Templated Quick Risk
176
Primavera Risk Analysis Templated Quick Risk
177
Primavera Risk Analysis
ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻫﻲ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻧﻘﻴﺲ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻣﺪى ارﺗﺒﺎط اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ
أﻧﻮاع ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت )ﻧﻮﻋﻴﻦ أو أﻛﺜﺮ أو ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻳﻦ أو أﻛﺜﺮ ( ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺎ
إذا ﻛﺎن ﺗﻐﻴﺮ اﺣﺪﻫﻤﺎ أو ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﴼ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻻﺧﺮى ,ﻓﻘﺪ ﻧﺮﻳﺪ
ﻣﺜﻼ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن ﻫﻨﺎك ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﺘﺪﺧﻴﻦ واﻹﺻﺎﺑﺔ ﺑﻤﺮض ﻓﻲ
اﻟﺮﺋﺔ ،أو ﺑﻴﻦ درﺟﺔ ﺗﻌﻠﻴﻢ اﻟﺸﺨﺺ وﻣﺴﺘﻮى دﺧﻠﻪ
179
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر اﻟﻨﺸﺎط Aﺛﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﺿﻐﻄﺎ ﻣﺰدوﺟﺎ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ
أو ﻣﻦ أﺳﻔﻞ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ Select Distributionﻓﺘﻈﻬﺮ ﺷﺎﺷﺔ ﺑﻬﺎ
ﻛﻞ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ﻣﻨﻬﺎ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب رﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺸﺎط Aﺛﻢ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ
اﻟﺴﻬﻢ اﻷﻳﻤﻦ Addﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ
180
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
181
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
Scatter Diagram
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﻼﺣﻆ وﺟﻮد رﺳﻢ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻰ أﺳﻔﻞ ﻳﻤﻴﻦ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ ﻳﻌﺒﺮ
ﻋﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﻨﺸﺎﻃﻴﻦ Aو Bﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺤﻮر Xﻣﺪة
اﻟﻨﺸﺎط Aوﻣﺤﻮر Yﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط Bوﻛﻠﻤﺎ اﻗﺘﺮﺑﺖ اﻟﻨﻘﺎط ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ
وﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻓﻲ وﺿﻊ أﻓﺮب ﻟﻠﺨﻂ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﻛﺎن ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻳﻘﺘﺮب ﻣﻦ
%100وﻛﻠﻤﺎ اﻧﺘﺸﺮت اﻟﻨﻘﺎط ﻓﻲ اﺑﺘﻌﺪت ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﻛﺎن ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ
اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﻳﻘﺘﺮب ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﻔﺮ
ﻣﻠﺤﻮﻇﺔ :ﻳﻤﻜﻦ وﺿﻊ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﻟﺐ ﺑﺤﺪ ﻳﺼﻞ اﻟﻰ %100-
وﻓﻰ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﻜﻮن ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻋﻜﺴﻰ ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻰ اﻧﻪ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ازدادة ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﺪة
اﻟﻨﺸﺎط Aﺗﻘﻞ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط Bوﺑﺎﻟﻄﺒﻊ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻫﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﺎدرة
اﻟﻮﺟﻮد ﻓﻲ إدارة اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮوﻋﺎت
182
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
183
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
184
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
185
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
186
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
187
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻄﻮة اﻷوﻟﻰ ﻧﺴﺠﻞ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط Aواﻟﻤﺪة اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮوع ﻓﻲ
ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل
ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط Aﻫﻲ 41ﻳﻮم وﻣﺪة اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ 114ﻳﻮم
ﻧﺴﺠﻞ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﻓﻲ ﺷﻴﺖ اﻛﺴﻞ ﺛﻢ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ اﻟﺨﻄﻮة 2وﻧﺴﺠﻞ ﻣﺪة
اﻟﻨﺸﺎط Aوﻣﺪة اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع وﻫﻜﺬا ﺣﺘﻰ ﻧﺴﺠﻞ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻻت
ﻧﺤﺴﺐ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط وﻣﺪة اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺘﻴﻦ ﻧﺒﺪأ
ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient
188
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
ﻧﺒﺪأ ﺑﻮﺿﻊ Rankﻟﻤﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﺣﻴﺚ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﺬى ﻟﻪ أﻗﻞ ﻣﺪة ﻧﻌﻄﻴﻪ
1 Rankواﻟﺬى ﻳﻠﻴﻪ 2وﻫﻜﺬا ﺣﺘﻰ ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﺬى ﻟﻪ اﻟﻤﺪة اﻷﻛﺒﺮ
ﻟﻪ 10 Rankﻓﻲ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل
ﻣﻠﺤﻮﻇﺔ :1ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﻦ ﻟﻬﻢ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ وﻋﻨﺪ ﻋﻤﻞ Rank
ﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط 29ﻛﺎن ﻣﻔﺘﺮض ﻟﻬﺎ 3 Rankوﻟﻜﻦ ﺑﻮﺟﻮد ﻣﺪة
أﺧﺮى 29أﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻔﺘﺮض أن ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟـ 4 Rankوﻟﻜﻦ ﻻن ﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ
ﺛﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺴﻤﺔ اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻓﻴﻜﻮن ﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟـ Rankوذﻟﻚ ﺑﺠﻤﻊ 4 + 3
ﻋﻠﻰ 2ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟـ Rankﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ 3.5
189
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
190
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
191
Primavera Risk Analysis Correlation
192
Primavera Risk Analysis
195
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
196
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
197
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
198
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
ﻣﻦ اﻟﻬﺎم ﺟﺪا ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻒ Riskﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺴﺒﺐ واﻟﺤﺪث واﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ
ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﻧﺴﺘﻜﻤﻞ ﺗﺴﺠﻴﻞ ﺑﺎﻗﻰ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ
199
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
200
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
أﻳﻀﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ 5وﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻌﺪد وذﻟﻚ
واﺧﺘﻴﺎر اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﺬى ﺗﺮﻳﺪه )ﻣﻦ 2إﻟﻰ (9 ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺴﻬﻢ
ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر 3
201
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
وأﻳﻀﺎ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ وﺻﻒ اﻟﻤﻘﻴﺎس ﻓﺒﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ Highﻣﺜﻼ ﻧﺮﻳﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﻫﺎ اﻟﻰ
ﻋﺎﻟﻰ اﻟﺨﻄﻮرة..وﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ Mediumاﻟﻰ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺨﻄﻮرة وﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ Low
إﻟﻰ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ اﻟﺨﻄﻮرة
وﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻫﺬا اﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ اﻟﺜﻼث ﻧﻘﺎط
ﻓﺘﻈﻬﺮ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ:
202
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻫﺬه اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ ﻧﺤﺪد ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﺣﻴﺚ ﻧﺠﺪ ﻓﻲ
ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل أﻧﻪ ﺗﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﻫﻲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ Scheduleواﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ
Costواﻷداء Performanceوﻳﻤﻜﻦ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ أﺧﺮى أو ﺣﺬف
ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ )ﻣﺎﻋﺪا اﻟﻮﻗﺖ واﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺣﺬﻓﻬﻢ(
203
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
204
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
ﻣﻦ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ Scoreﻧﺤﺪد ﻫﻞ ﻳﺘﻢ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎر ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺴﺎب
اﻟـ Scoreواﻟﺬى ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﺑﻨﺎءا ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ودرﺟﺔ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ
أﻫﺪاف اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع
وﻫﺬا ﻣﺎ ﺳﻨﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺴﻄﻮر اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ
205
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
ﺑﻌﺪ ﺣﺴﺎب اﻟـ Scoreﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ درﺟﺔ اﻟﺨﻄﻮرة ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻠـ
Scoreﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ اﻟـ Riskاﻟﻰ ﻋﺎﻟﻰ
وﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ وﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ اﻟﺨﻄﻮرة ﻓﻨﺤﺪد اﻧﻪ إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟـ Scoreأﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ 23
ﻣﺜﻼ ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟـ Riskﻟﻪ درﺟﺔ ﺧﻄﻮرة ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ وﻧﺤﺪد ﻟﻪ ﻟﻮن ﻣﺤﺪد ﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺰه
وﺗﺘﻢ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ Tolerance Scale
206
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
207
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
208
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
209
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
210
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
211
Primavera Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk analysis
ﺑﻌﺪ ذﻟﻚ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ Waterfall Chartﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻟﻨﺎ رﺳﻢ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻰ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ
ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ اﻟـ Risk
ﻧﻼﺣﻆ اﻟﺨﻂ اﻷﺳﻮد ﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ اﻟـ Riskﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﺴﺎوﻳﺎ ﻟـ 36
ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺤﻤﺮاء ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪاﻳﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع وﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ 11ﻣﺎرس وﻫﻮ
اﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺦ اﻟﺬى ﺣﺪدﻧﺎه ﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎء اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻌﺔ أي اﻟـ
Mitigation
ﺛﻢ ﻳﻨﺰل ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ اﻟﺨﻂ اﻟﻰ اﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ 12ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮاء
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ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺰء اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ وﺟﻮد اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻛﺮﻗﻢ ﻣﺤﺪد رﻏﻢ اﻧﻨﺎ ﺣﺪدﻧﺎ
اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻓﻲ ﻣﺪى ﺣﺪ أدﻧﻰ وأﻗﺼﻰ ﻓﻤﺜﻼ اذا ﻛﺎن اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ
Mediumﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ %30إﻟﻰ %50وﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﺎﻧﺠﺪه ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺑﺎ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻫﻮ
%40وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺤﺴﺎب اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﺤﺪ اﻷدﻧﻰ واﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﻤﺎل
ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﺮﺑﻂ اﻟـ Safety Case Approval ... Risk
Delayed
ﻧﺮﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺸﺎط 0130- External Approvalﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮن ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻫﺬا اﻟـ
Riskﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ:
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮن ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻫﺬا اﻟـ Riskﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﺑﻤﺪة ﺗﺘﺮاوح ﺑﻴﻦ 20ﻳﻮﻣﺎ و
40ﻳﻮﻣﺎ
واﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﺗﺘﺮاوح ﺑﻴﻦ 25000و 50000
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
ﺛﻢ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ Buildوﻧﻼﺣﻆ أن اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺑﻨﺎء ﺧﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻳﻘﻮم ﺑﻌﻤﻞ
ﻧﺴﺦ ﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟـ Mitigationوﺑﻌﺪه ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع
اﻷﺻﻠﻰ ﻓﻴﻜﻮن ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ 3ﻣﺸﺮوﻋﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﻮﺣﺔ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ اﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ذﻟﻚ
ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ Widow
ﻧﺨﺘﺎر اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع Post-Mitigated
وﻧﻼﺣﻆ أﻧﻪ ﺗﻤﺖ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻼت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ:
ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎط C
-1ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ اﻟـ Riskاﻟﻰ ﻧﺸﺎط ﺑﻌﻨﻮان Design Changes
-2ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎط Cﺑﻌﻼﻗﺔ FS
-3إﺿﺎﻓﺔ Summary Barﻳﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻨﺸﺎﻃﻴﻦ Cواﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪ
-4ﻳﺘﻢ رﺑﻂ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟـ Summaryﺑﺎﻟﻨﺸﺎط Dﺑﻌﻼﻗﺔ FSوﻫﺬا
اﻟﺮﺑﻂ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟـ Summaryﻣﻌﺒﺮا ﻋﻦ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط
واﻟـ Riskﻣﻌﺎ وأﻳﻀﺎ ﻟﻠﺤﻔﺎظ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ Cواﻟﻨﺸﺎط D
ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻀﺎف اﻟﻴﻪ ﻣﺪة اﻟـ Riskﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺣﺪوﺛﻪ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
ﻧﻼﺣﻆ أن اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﺬى ﺗﻤﺖ إﺿﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺗﻢ وﺿﻊ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﺠﻮاره وﻫﻰ
اﻟﺘﻰ ﺣﺪدﻧﺎﻫﺎ ﻛﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺣﺪوﺛﻪ..ﻓﺄﺻﺒﺢ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻟﻪ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺣﺪوث
Uncertaintyﻟﻬﺬا اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻟﻴﺼﺒﺢ Existence Risk %50وﺗﻢ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ
ﻛﻤﺎ ﺷﺮﺣﻨﺎ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻨﻮع ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ وﻳﻼﺣﻆ ذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﻔﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ اﺧﺘﻴﺎر
اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪ Design Changes
اﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪﺛﺖ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎط Cﻣﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎ ﻟﻤﺎ ﺣﺪث ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎط F
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﻓﻴﻜﻮن ﻻ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻟﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻰ
أو اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻰ:
اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ وﺟﻮد اﻟﻨﺸﺎط
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻢ اﻟﺮﺑﻂ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ وﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط
ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺮ اﻟﺬى ﻣﺪﺗﻪ أﻛﺒﺮ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺗﻮاﺟﺪ اﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺪة اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﻤﻌﺒﺮ ﻋﻦ
اﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ
ﺛﻢ ﻳﺘﺤﺪد ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺑﺮﺑﻄﻬﺎ ﺑﻌﻼﻗﺔ SFﻛﻨﺸﺎط ﻻﺣﻖ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎط
اﻟـ Milestoneوﺗﺎرﻳﺦ اﻟـ Milestoneﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط A
ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ ﺑﺪاﻳﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻷﺻﻠﻰ Bﻳﺘﺤﺪد ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺦ ﺑﺪاﻳﺔ اﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﻻﻧﻪ
ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﻣﻌﻬﺎ ﺑﻌﻼﻗﺔ SS
ﻳﺘﺤﺪد ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ ﻟـ Bوﻫﻮ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ Cﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل
اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط Summaryﺑﻌﻼﻗﺔ FS
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
Distribution Analyzer
ﺑﻌﺪ ادﺧﺎل ﺑﻴﻨﺎت اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ورﺑﻄﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺛﻢ ﻋﻤﻞ Build
Impacted Risk Planﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻘﻮم اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﻌﻤﻞ ﻧﺴﺦ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮوع ﻗﺒﻞ
وﺑﻌﺪ اﻟـ Mitigation
ﻓﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ 3ﻣﺸﺮوﻋﺎت اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع اﻷﺻﻠﻰ واﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ
اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ وﻣﺸﺮوع ﺑﻌﺪ ﻋﻤﻞ Mitigationوﻧﺮﻳﺪ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت
وﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ اﻟـ Mitigationﻓﻴﻜﻮن ذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل Distribution Analyzer
ﻣﻠﺤﻮﻇﺔ :ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ Build Impacted Risk Planﻳﺠﺐ ﻓﺘﺢ ﻛﻞ
ﻣﺸﺮوع ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوﻋﺎت اﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ Windowﺛﻢ ﻋﻤﻞ
Run Risk analysis
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ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ وﺟﻮد ﻛﻠﻤﺔ Yesﺗﺤﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ Valid Risk
File
ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد ﻛﻠﻤﺔ Noﻧﻔﺘﺢ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع وﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﻌﻤﻞ Run Risk
Analysis
ﺛﻢ ﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ اﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ واﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ واﻟﻤﺪة
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﺳﻔﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ ﻧﺠﺪ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ
ﻟﻨﺸﺎط أو ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ أو اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬا
اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ Entire Planﺛﻢ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ Import
ﻓﺘﻈﻬﺮ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﺳﻔﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ ﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ
اﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﺜﻼ إﻇﻬﺎر اﻟﻤﺸﺮوﻋﻴﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ وﺑﻌﺪ اﻟـ Mitigationوإﺧﻔﺎء
اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع اﻷﺻﻠﻰ
ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ رﻏﺒﺘﻨﺎ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﻴﺎن ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻣﺜﻼ %20ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ
اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ Edit Highlighterﻣﻦ أﺳﻔﻞ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ
ﻓﺘﻈﻬﺮ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ:
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ أﺿﻔﻨﺎ ﺑﻴﺎن ﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ %20واﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ ﻟﻮن اﻟﺨﻂ أﺣﻤﺮ
ﻓﻴﻈﻬﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ:
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻨﺴﻴﻖ وﻋﺮض اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﺑﺄﺷﻜﺎل ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ وﻓﻰ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﻧﻌﺮض
ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻟـ S-Curveﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﺮض Histogramوذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ
Formatﻧﺨﺘﺎر Graphﺛﻢ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ اﻟﻤﺮﺑﻊ أﻣﺎم Display
Histogram asﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر Bars
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
ﻫﺬا اﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻣﻔﻴﺪ ﺟﺪا ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ What If Analysisﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻤﻞ
ﺳﻴﻨﺎرﻳﻮﻫﺎت ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮوع وﺣﻔﻆ ﻛﻞ ﺳﻴﻨﺎرﻳﻮ ﺛﻢ اﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ
اﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎرﻳﻮﻫﺎت اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻴﺢ ﻫﺬا اﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ رؤﻳﺔ واﺿﺤﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ
اﺗﺨﺎذ اﻟﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk analysis
Tornado Graph
ﺷﺮﺣﻨﺎ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ Tornado Graphوﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ واﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ
وﻟﻜﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ وﻋﻤﻞ ﺳﺠﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺛﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ
Quantitative Risk Analysis
ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻔﻌﻴﻞ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺷﺎﺷﺔ Tornado Graph
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Primavera Risk Analysis
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Primavera Risk Analysis Cash Flow & Earned Value
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻴﻌﺮﺿﻬﺎ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ
اﺧﺘﻴﺎر اﻟﻤﻮرد أو اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ وأﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻓﻠﺘﺮ ﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﺤﺪدى
ﻣﻦ أﻫﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺑﺪاﻳﺔ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ واﻟﻔﺘﺮة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ
)ﺷﻬﺮ -أﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺦ(
وﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﺘﺮات زﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ..ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﻤﺎ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة اﻷوﻟﻰ
ﺷﻬﺮ واﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺷﻬﺮان وﻫﻜﺬا وﻟﻌﻤﻞ ذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ أﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ
Define Customs
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Primavera Risk Analysis Cash Flow & Earned Value
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Primavera Risk Analysis Cash Flow & Earned Value
ﻳﺘﻢ رﺳﻢ اﻟـ S-Curveﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪدﻧﺎﻫﺎ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﺒﺮ ﻣﺤﻮر Xﻋﻦ
اﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺦ وﻣﺤﻮر Yﻟﻠﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ
ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ أﺳﻔﻞ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮض ﺟﺪول اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮات اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ
اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪدﻧﺎﻫﺎ وﻳﻤﻜﻦ اﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺮض اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت ﺳﻮاءا ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ
اﻟﺮﺳﻢ أو ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺠﺪول
وﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻄﻮر اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﺾ إﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎت اﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺮض
اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت
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Primavera Risk Analysis Cash Flow & Earned Value
ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﻇﻬﻮر اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪدﻧﺎﻫﺎ P10 & P80
ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ وﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺠﺪول
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Primavera Risk Analysis Cash Flow & Earned Value
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Primavera Risk Analysis Cash Flow & Earned Value
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Primavera Risk Analysis Cash Flow & Earned Value
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Primavera Risk Analysis Cash Flow & Earned Value
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Primavera Risk Analysis Cash Flow & Earned Value
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Primavera Risk Analysis Cash Flow & Earned Value
Cost Index -5وﺗﻌﺒﺮ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻨﺴ ـﺒﺔ اﻟﻤﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻼﺧﺘﻼف ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ
واﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﻘﺔ
Cost Index (CI) = BCWP / ACWP
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Primavera Risk Analysis Cash Flow & Earned Value
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Primavera Risk Analysis
Weather Modeling
Primavera Risk Analysis Weather Modeling
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Primavera Risk Analysis Weather Modeling
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Primavera Risk Analysis Weather Modeling
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Primavera Risk Analysis Weather Modeling
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Primavera Risk Analysis Weather Modeling
ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ ﻳﻀﻴﻒ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﺳﻢ اﻟـ Calendarﺑﻘﻴﻢ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺻﻔﺮ وﻟﻜﻦ
ﺗﺨﺼﺺ ﻟﻪ اﻟـ Calendarاﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻘﺲ...اﻟﻐﺮض ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﻮرد
ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺼﻪ ﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻧﻌﺮض ﻟﺨﻄﺮ اﻟﻄﻘﺲ ﻫﻮ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ اﻟـ Calendar
اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺸﺎط إذا وﻗﻊ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮة اﻻﻋﺼﺎر
ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻤﻮرد ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎط Bاﻟﻤﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺼﺎر ﺑﻘﻴﻢ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺻﻔﺮ
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Primavera Risk Analysis Weather Modeling
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Primavera Risk Analysis Weather Modeling
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Primavera Risk Analysis Weather Modeling
ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ إذا وﻗﻊ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط أﺛﻨﺎء اﻻﻋﺼﺎر ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺄﺟﻴﻠﻪ ﻟﻴﺒﺪأ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة
ﺑﻌﺪ اﻻﻋﺼﺎر ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ Constraint
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