MARS – A Fresh Look at Risk

Assessment Modelling and

Effective Safety Data
Communication
Dr Ivan Sikora
School of Mathematics,
Computer Science and
Engineering
 What is in the nature of Risk, its
assessment and the
communication of the safety data
that it is connecting them to the
subject of today’s Symposium?

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 [online video] available from https://youtu.be/Aq6y3RO12UQ?t=1m57s
[17 March 2016]
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 TRANSPORATION AND LOGISTICS
UNIVERSAL IN THE ESSENCE

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 RISK CHALLENGES COMPAREABLE
DESPITE OF DIFFERENT ASPECTS

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OPTIMIZING THE DELIVERY OF GOODS
TO THE PLACE OF FINAL CONSUMPTION
AS A FUNCTION OF RISK AND SAFETY

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 Something professionals often find
difficult to understand is how
to represent and communicate
intangible concepts like risk on
varied levels effectively.

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MODEL OF AVIATION RISK STUDY (MARS)
DESCRIPTION AND CONSTRUCTION

(Von Forell, 2013.)

The dynamic
Connection With
characteristics of the
Biometrics due to
transport system - a
the Complexity of
source of diverse
Accident Causation
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 MARS - FACTORS and OUTPUT
A quantitative holistic index
capable of defining the
safety features of the
system

To be used widely
regardless of the
stakeholder where it is
applied.
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The value of risk within the system observed
is expressed with:

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The value of risk within the system observed
is expressed with:
• The mass of each block (representing
macro-factor – “coloured” blocks from the
conceptual model)

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The value of risk within the system observed
is expressed with:
• The notion of not enough capacity to resist
the destabilizing influences with all
possible means (i.e. macro factors –
human, technical and environment)

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The value of risk within the system observed
is expressed with:
• Total efficiency of influence for each macro-
factor (i.e. block of the model)

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The value of risk within the system observed
is expressed with:

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 MARS APPLICATION IN A CASE STUDY
• A safety case study of missed approach risk,
• The real data from the flight operations of an
airline (2786 observed cases in 5 years),
• The input data for the model:
– the total number of observations,
– the number of observations related to each macro-
factor of the model,
– the order of influence, and
– the efficiency of influence for each individual macro-
factor.
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 MARS APPLICATION IN A CASE STUDY
(contd.)
• The Value of Risk for Two Periods in Case
Study

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 MARS APPLICATION IN A CASE STUDY
(contd.)
• Advantage in
Analysing fine
Differences
between
Systems and
Stakeholders
(Sikora, 2013.)

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RISK MODELLING AND COMMUNICATIONS AT NEXT
LEVEL - MARS

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 Thank You!
Hvala!
Ivan.Sikora.1@city.ac.uk
[riccardo.patriarca; giulio.digravio;
francesco.costantino]
@uniroma1.it
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Selected References
Von Forell, G. A. (2012.) Biomechanical
Implications of Lumbar Spinal Ligament
Transection A Finite Element Study. All
Theses and Dissertations. Paper 2931.
Sikora, I. (2013.) Defining a Proactive Risk
Monitoring System in Airlines. Doctoral
Thesis, Faculty of Transport And Traffic
Sciences, Zagreb, Croatia, July.
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