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Sell the 610 Put for a credit of $3.25 x 100 (one contract) = $325
Buy the 600 Put for insurance for $2.60 x 100 (one contract) = $260
Sell the 810 Call for a credit of $1.70 x 100 (one contract) = $170
Sell the 810 Call for a credit of $1.70 x 100 (one contract) = $170
Extrinsic Value Time Decay
120
100
80
60 Extrinsic
Value
40
20
0
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Buy the 600 Put for insurance for $2.60 x 100 (one contract) = $260
We sell because we
want to receive
credit for the position
Once filled you will right click on the filled order and select “Create Opposite Order”
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© 2015 Eagle Interests, LLC
The effect of Volatility on an Iron Condor
As stated earlier:
Premium is what we pay for an options and is composed of
_______ Value
_______ Value
____________
____________
Implied Volatility
- Implied Volatility: In financial mathematics, the implied volatility of an option contract is
that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when input in an option
pricing model (such as Black–Scholes) will return a theoretical value equal to the
current market price of the option
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The effect of Volatility on an Iron Condor
It is a known fact (numerous studies) that Implied Volatility is mostly
overstated in times of fear and uncertainty
Each Underlying has its own Volatility measure (For example, the
average volatility in the last year for the S&P500 index is approx.
17% and that of Wynn Resorts is 35%), so how do we find the
Relative Volatility of an Underlying?
IVPercentile
IVPercentile measures where current implied volatility stands in relation
to the range it has been in for a given period of time (we will utilize
one year). The max rank is 100 and the minimum rank is 0! The
formula can be seen below
(Imp_Volatility-lowest(Imp_Volatility,252))/(highest(Imp_Volatility,252)-lowest(Imp_Volatility,252))
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What does all this mean?
Implied Volatility tells us
what the market expects the
underlying to do in the
future, high IV means there
is uncertainty/fear and the
stock is expected to move
big in the future (options are
expensive)
Fear
We frequently see how volatility goes up as the market goes
down (for the most part they are reverse functions)
Uncertainty
As news is eminent we see volatility go up (only up to the point
of the news being disseminated)
FDA Results/News – Since pharmaceuticals/biotech companies always have
drugs in development the results by the FDA are given intermittently. We do
not play in this sector since these news are sometimes very specific and of
unknown timing
Earnings Releases – The most common type of uncertain news are earnings
releases, mostly 4 times a year for every company (every 3 months). This is
when a company releases their results for the past 3 months and their
guidance going forward – We can benefit from these events (risking very
little of our account in a defined risk trade – guidelines to be given later). In
its majority these are in January, April, July and October
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© 2015 Eagle Interests, LLC
What creates High Volatility in the Market?
Fear (Inverse Curves)
Earnings Releases
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© 2015 Eagle Interests, LLC
The effects of Volatility Contraction on Iron Condors
As an example, the Volatility of stock ORCL went from .31 to .21 (a 10 point drop)
A drop in Implied
Volatility of 10 points
would inflate our
profits per contract
from $1.02 a $34.44
giving us our 50%
expected profit (since
$34.44 is more than
half of our initial credit
of $60)
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© 2015 Eagle Interests, LLC
The effect of time on Iron Condors
As an example, the passage of time in DIA of 39 days
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© 2015 Eagle Interests, LLC
Our Strategy – Selling Premium
We will sell to Open Out of the Money Options
Since they only have Extrinsic Value
They will lose their value with time (Theta Positive) and
that is what we want, since we are going to ‘Sell to Open’
We will chose underlying's with High Relative Volatility
(IVPercentile), above __%, so that when volatility drops
our profits will be accelerated (Vega Negative)
The closest to __ days to expiration
With enough liquidity as defined earlier
We will buy our positions back at __% of the initial sell value
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