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Kashmir Issue-after abrogation of 370 & 35A Options for India & Pakistan

Article · August 2019

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 Kashmir Issue-after abrogation of 370 & 35A Options for India & Pakistan
*MUHAMMAD WASEEM SHAHZAD
Student of International relations
Available at http://pjydis.ga/research-articles/
Introduction
Since the partition of sub-continent, Kashmir remained disputed territory. Its history goes back to
635 princely states, had been ruled by Rajas. Kashmir is one form them. Maharaja Harrisingh
was the ruler of Kashmir, whether he argued on the Indian side or not; it remained a
controversial one! Pakistan and India fought three wars and fourth a little escalation (Kargil)
regarding disputed territories.

The stance of Jammu & Kashmir and Global Support:

It will not lie to state that Kashmir issue lacked popularity in European, African and North
American community. People of these regions know little about crisis in Kashmir, and they did
not know how Kashmir issue is sensitive? In recent months the United Nations Human Rights
Commission issued a report on massive Human Rights violations in Kashmir, which was first-
time documented by the UN throughout history. In European and North American Nations
people are attached with their jobs, businesses, working and freelancing and [by the majority]
they have no understanding of issues across the globe. Europeans are very rational they had not
been involved in the issues of others. Respectively, one can build an argument that the Kashmir
issue is popular in South Asia and in some Muslim countries. When we study, the ground
realities behind international politics we can argue that politics is not based on friendship, nor on
religion, but it is derived from one`s interest, and your interest is your permanent fried.

Let`s try to apply the same model on the popularity of Kashmir issue, across the world; one can
conclude that, even Muslim countries are preferring and will prefer their own interest on the
interest of Kashmir. In North America, people know only about Kashmir as ``disputed territory
in South-Asia. As Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Ahmed Khan Nazi pointed out that western
people are very ignorant, and they have no idea of the sensitivity of such issues, and they also
lacked thinking regarding the implications of escalation of Kashmir issue on the world. In the
Middle East after Arab Spring the popular issues are Yemeni crisis as a form of Houthi rebels
and in Syria in the form of Civil War and a major issue in the Middle East is Israel and Palestine.
Same is the case with Kashmir issue, which is popular but limited in South-Asia. Many Muslim
states promoted awareness regarding the Kashmir issue, like Pakistan used the forum of
Organization of Islamic Cooperation to expose Human Rights especially violation of the right of
self-determination of Kashmir by so-called Secular Democratic India.

In 2019 under the government of PTI the situation is changing, Foreign Minister of Pakistan
Shah Mahmood Qureshi contacted to many state`s officials and organization including writing a
letter to Untired Nations Security Council (UNSC and Calling to OIC. Chairman Senate of
Pakistan Mr. Sadiq Sajrani also wrote letters to all speakers of parliaments around the world. We
can use various parameters to know how the situation is changing. PM Imran also made a phone
call to Mohatir Mohammed, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Saudi Crown Prince, only Turkish
President ensured support for Kashmir in front of Pakistan. These steps of the government of
Pakistan may lead in the enhancement of awareness of Kashmir issue in the world.

One another biased opinion can be prescribed that the majority of Western people are non-
Muslims and Kashmir`s people are Muslims and in many European and other Western nations
there is anger regarding Muslims, even they consider Kashmiri people who are struggling for
independence are insurgents and terrorists from the Pakistani point of view, in contrast, they are
Muslim brothers who are fighting for freedom. The increase of awareness of the world regarding
Kashmir the issue is also dependent with policies of Pakistan. There had been many flaws in
Pakistan`s policy pertaining to Kashmir throughout history. There has been many protests in
different countries for freedom of Kashmir, but these were on local level, consequently no
official protest has been recorded except in Pakistan nor any step has been made by any country
respectively.

When Pakistan raised this issue on many forums, many countries even some Islamic states
remained neutral on the stance of Pakistan on Kashmir. At the time of independence of Pakistan,
Egypt made a statement that ``that Islam was born in Pakistan`` and Egypt was not interested in
issues of the Muslim world, for evidence we can add the historic visit of Anwar Sadaat, and
Egypt openly supported Jordanian step of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel.
Rationally, the above example is out of context, but it is evidence that how Muslim countries are
interested in common issues of the Muslim world. In the Middle East, the Kashmir issue is
sensitive only in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Other countries are somehow part of clash in
the Middle East, and they are not interested in Kashmir issue and its resolution.

Analysis of Reasons behind No Popularity of Kashmir issue around the world:

Everyone in the Western world is aware of Afghanistan, Terrorism, Al Qaeda and Taliban issue,
because since 1970s interests of major powers such as USA and USSR were connected with
Afghanistan. When The former Soviet Union made an invasion of Afghanistan in December
1979, US interests were connected with Afghanistan. After the December 1979 incident, there
was another event which reconnected US interests with Afghanistan. This event was September
11 attacks [9/11].
[Popularity of any issue is many-times is dependent with support of major power] quote

Analytical point is there has been no interest of any major power (i.e. US or USSR) linked with
Kashmir China supported the stance of Pakistan on Kashmir, but it was not a massive landmark.
Because China is not USA or USSR which can ask all states to support Kashmir as US
encouraged all countries to fight with terrorism. The United States of America also made some
supporting arguments for Kashmir, but not materialized nor supported long-lasting. Another
reason that is already discussed is the ignorant behavior of Western nations towards international
issues, and they consider issues which are threatening their interests. And Kashmir issue is not
threatening their interests.

Indian media (electronic) is divided into three languages Hindi, Punjabi and English; and in
contrasts, Pakistan officially lacked multi-language transmission. The researcher would like to
add here the example of PTV world, only an official channel operated under the government of
Pakistan. Indian media used to publish fake news about Kashmir and urge the world that “all
situations are normal in Kashmir. And by using such sweeping statements in multiple-languages
India is removing & wiping the status of Jammu and Kashmir issue. As researcher already
added, with lack of multiple languages transmission, only URDU transmission is not enough to
encourage the world to ask India to stop oppression in the disputed territory. There are several
TV channels in Pakistan who are broadcasting in regional and local languages of Pakistan such
as Punjabi, Pashto and Sindhi, interestingly, these languages we can only promote this issue
domestically. There are many English newspapers and websites in Pakistan, but in the Western
world, people do not have enough time to read newspapers and websites of Pakistan.

As media plays an important role in formulating world public opinion, and by replication,
this strategy, Indian stance on Kashmir is stronger than Pakistan.

Kashmir issue is not a conflict between one core or between two cores, rather it is a territorial
dispute between India and Pakistan, we cannot take India and Pakistan as peripheries, but semi-
periphery would be the best name for better understanding. There would be more chances of
resolution of Kashmir issue and popularity of issue in case of issue of the core. Another reason
behind the lack of global support of Kashmiri people is the lack of unity of Muslims. Many
leaders of Muslim countries are inspired by western secular scholars and in result they
became selfish and they had not supported the issue of Kashmir. Lack of popularity of Kashmir
issue is also a result of emotional and extreme slogans of Kashmiri people rather than the
strategizing situation. Many reports of experts and think tanks described the situation of Kashmir
and they also emphasized the reasons why this issue is on the backside and not popular around
the world.

Media of Indian occupied Kashmir has been promoting the Barbarizes of Indian army in the
region but Indian strategy of regulating its media in form of media control is superior to media of
IOK and somehow than media of Pakistan. India is continuously transmitting that situation is
normal in Kashmir by denying the facts and figures of Kashmiri, Pakistani and international
media. Indian media personnel are not reporting nor are publishing the Human Rights violations
in Kashmir and Indian media also avoiding transmission and coverage of massive protests in
Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). As media is the fourth pillar of the state, over-controlled state
media can increase instability; current Mr. Moodi government and BJP politicians are strongly
supporting abrogation of articles 370 and 35A of Indian constitution. But academia, researchers,
experts made aggressive statements regarding Indian unilateral decision.

In this context, we can add the “lack of social media facilities” as one of the causes behind the
lack of popularity of issue & human rights violations respectively. There are limited internet
facilities in Kashmir, but there is a discriminatory policy of social media which prohibits the
posting of any violent video and picture. Generally, social media sites are Twitter, Facebook,
Flicker, and Instagram. In 21st century, social media played an important role in formulating the
world’s public opinion, such as in Arab Uprisings, but after 2016 various social media sites
prohibited violent killing and pornography posting. By these contradictions, we can classify the
barriers in the social media campaign of Kashmir issue in two categories. Firstly, as above
described social media sites made policies in recent years by which one cannot post pictures of
massive Indian genocide and Human Rights violations. Try to post a video on social media of
killing and blooding, it would be deleted shortly. Secondly, in IOK Indian government limited
the facilities of internet usage. In the first days of August 2019, curfew has been made and all
mediums of communications are blocked, this is a point, Why Kashmir issue couldn’t reach
popularity across the world.

Recent Situation after Indian abrogation of 370 & 35A articles of Indian
constitution:
By presidential ordinance, India abrogated article 370 of Indian constitution regarding the special
status of IOK as “disputed territory” and considered Kashmir and Ladakh as two parts of Indian
Union. New Delhi also terminated article 35A of the Indian constitution by which any Indian
national can became a citizen of Kashmir (as part of Indian union) and can invest in IOK. Many
political experts and diplomates accounted for the Indian end of 35A as starting of maintenance
of Israeli model in IOK, to change the statistics and move Muslims of Kashmir towards the
status of minority. It is also a so-called conspiracy of India, and a policy to increase Hindus in
the region and to establish Kashmir as Hindu Majority territory. It is not only the so-called policy
of India; evidence can be added that India is massively killing Muslims there, maybe to decrease
the ratio of Muslims. In this scenario, Islamabad is much confident and even PMIK added that
India can do wrong in Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Many protests were recorded, after Indian illegal annexation of IOK. India used coercive policy
to control the protestors and killed many Kashmiri people in the valley. No need to focus more
on the dilemma of history, because analysis and discussion are more important than the
discussion of history. Several protests in the western world and in Iran has increased the
popularity of Kashmir issue and also exposed how Indian armed forces are behaving with them.
Thousands of statements have also been made from Pakistan in support of Kashmir. Important
decisions were also taken by National Security Committee. The Islamabad government is under
the burden of public pressure to fight the war with India. The government has to strategize the
public opinion and has to control such a situation i.e. any individual’s group or militant
organization to take an initial military step towards India. Because Mr. Moodi’s government is
looking at Islamabad, for the first strike, and consequently Pakistan’s first strike would affect
badly and decrease support of IOS and super-powers for Pakistan. Islamabad has officially
adopted a policy to go to the United Nations Security Council and it will be the best option for
both Kashmir & Pakistan.

But the option of UNSC is like a chance or more like a lucky committee, because of the
existence of veto by any P5 country. On August 12, 2019, Foreign Minister of Pakistan said that
any country from P5 in UNSC can veto our appeal/resolution, because India is the largest market
after China in Asia and many countries have invested in India.

Options for New Delhi to normalize the situation

All the following available options for India would be short working and short-living excluding
leaving IOK, because the independence of Kashmir can’t be controlled. However, to limit the
protests and extreme zeal of independence New Delhi can make various supportive
statements and offer them special incentives under the constitution in markets and public
services. To keep the situation in order without HR violations Indian armed and political
leadership can visit the region and ensure people that termination of 370 & 35A is also matter of
your interest.

No matters that the situation in Kashmir is somehow out of control, but still, the Indian
government can win the hearts of Kashmiri people by statements and special immunities. As
well as the availability of options is concerned, Indian media is still denying facts and showing
pictures of some shops of Kashmir and trying to cover the story of protests. The unbiased
argument is ‘this strategy of Indian media is not the success of India rather India is trying to
cover her failure in Kashmir as a form of transmission of normal Kashmir. India media should
recognize the bad situation and curfew in the valley, it will provide an opportunity for experts to
discuss the solution of the situation.

Comprehensive analysis of options for Pakistan

A) NON-MILITARY OPTIONS

1. Diplomatic Options:
Government of Pakistan is contacting world to aware leaders about the sensitivity of the conflict.
PTI government made several steps that can be taken as the practicality of diplomatic options for
Pakistan. Before the annexation of Kashmir, PMIK visited USA where he discussed the issues
regarding negotiations with the Taliban, he also discussed with Mr. Trump about the Kashmir.
Donald offered arbitration on Kashmir issue which was welcomed by Pakistan and denied by
India. After the annexation of Kashmir into India PMIK made a telephone call to many leaders
such as Turkish President, Iranian Prime Minister, dr. Mohatir Mohammed and Indonesian
president. Foreign Minister of Pakistan Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi also visited China
and has a meeting with the Chinese Foreign Minister. After meeting Mr. Quershi told to press
conference that China ensured her support in United Nations Security Council.

Islamabad can gain the support of all permanent members of UNSC and can obtain success in
strategizing the situation. UNSC can play an effective role against Indian violation of UNSC
resolutions regarding referendum and right of self-determination in Kashmir. It is the case of
human rights violations and genocide, by keeping this point in mind, the case of Pakistan is very
strong. In the cases of human rights violations, the UN coalition can even intervene in Kashmir
to normalize the situation by stopping human rights violations in Kashmir.

Many experts noted that Russia is a traditional country who vetoed many resolutions regarding
support of Pakistan, and still Russia is a challenge to the stance of Pakistan in Security Council.
Probably, Russia would veto the resolution in the future regarding Kashmir. Russian challenge
has been posed by traditional its diplomacy towards Pakistan. There is discrimination in UNSC
in form of the veto power of p5 countries. By keeping in the mind the current situation,
Islamabad should encourage Russia to check the situation in Kashmir and Support Pakistan in
UNSC. Pakistan has already adopted several coercive diplomatic options which were decided in
the second meeting of National Security Committee including returning Indian High-
Commissioner, suspension of trade and revision of all existing bilateral treaties and arrangements
with India.

By analyzing the steps that have been taken by Islamabad, we can suggest that soft-diplomatic
steps should only be taken and any coercive diplomatic step will increase strains between two
nuclear states.
 2. Non-diplomatic options
Several non-military and non-diplomatic options are available for Islamabad to tackle the
Kashmir issue these options are related to non- kinetic warfare including usage of media and gain
the world’s support. There should be visits of international experts and human rights bodies to
Azad Jammu & Kashmir, they should be encouraged to make unbiased report on Human rights
violations in Kashmir, their research will play a role in exposing Indian state terrorism in
Kashmir. There should also be the visits of representatives of regional and international
organizations in AJK to seek evidence of Indian violation of International Law and Human
Rights.

When we study the history of states during peace and war times, we can conclude that
Confidence Building Measures (CBMS) has been proved as a tool to normalize the situation and
to prevent escalation of issues between the states. “CBMS can be understood as a series of
actions that are designed, agreed, initiated and implemented by the conflict parties to open ways
for negotiations. In the India-Pakistan context, CBMS should be initiated by even one side to
build trust between the leadership of both countries. After Feb 27, 2019 strike of Pakistan, pilot
of MiG-20 was Pakistan, but Islamabad decided to send him back as a peace juster. Islamabad
also offered the project of Kartarpur Corridor for Sikh community of the world in general and for
Indian Sikhs in particular... Ignorant and extremist behavior of Indian government toward
initiatives of Islamabad is a justified reason behind understanding the importance of CBMS
between two countries. All these peace justers and initiatives were not satisfied nor appreciated
by New Delhi. One can suggest that CBMS should be understood seriously by both nuclear
countries for peace and prosperity.

The researcher would like to remember that the Jordan-Israeli treaty was signed after the
initiation of few CBMS, and after the treaty, both countries had established diplomatic relations
and living with peace. There was another issue between China and Russia named “Sino-Soviet
split” that was reproached by the United States in this reproachment process CBMS had played
an important role. By keeping these landmarks in mind we can pose a question that “Why Indo-
Pak situation cannot be better with CBMS?

Another non-military and the non-diplomatic option for Pakistan is to encourage Muslim
countries to pressure India to normalize the situation in Kashmir with peace. In case of failure of
strategy, Muslim countries can suspend their trade with India to oppress her to cancel the
abrogation of article 370 and 35A. This situation would be ideal in practicality because India is
the largest market any country would not be ready to suspend trade with India in favor of
Kashmir and Pakistan.
 B) MILITARY OPTIONS
AS WELL AS AVAILABILITY of military options is concerned, should be regarded as a
response to Indian military action. The initial attack of Pakistan without the mandate of the
United Nations would result in loss of all global support of Pakistan. It means that military
options against India should not be taken in the first place without the support of UN.

1. Nuclear Deterrence:

Historically, the threat of use of nuclear force remained a powerful war prevention tool, it also
worked for Israel; after the development of nuclear weapons, Arab states limited their operations
and attacks in the disputed territories. A historical and evidence of the success of Nuclear
Deterrence is the Cold War, which remained COLD only due to the existence of nuclear
weapons. Nuclear deterrence is the strongest military option for Pakistan to prevent Indian first
attack. There are various dynamics of nuclear deterrence which can be adopted by Islamabad.

2. Ensuring Security Building Measures:

There is confusion in public about the understanding of confidence and security-building

measures at many times both words (confidence & security building measures) are regarded as
collectively. But the reality is different, CBMS are in order to build trust by initiatives between
conflicting parties but in contrast, security building measure are in order to ensure the
advancement of both conventional and non-conventional weapons as a form of parity for
deterring an adversary. Sometimes SBMs are regarded as non-nuclear deterrence. Islamabad can
adopt this strategy, by enhancing both conventional and non-conventional weapons.

Conclusions
Of course, Kashmir is blooding and burning, there are multiple options for New Delhi &
Islamabad to strategize the situation. There are diplomatic and non-diplomatic non-military
options for Pakistan. But there is also the availability of military options, waging war on India
should not be materialized at first place by Islamabad, it can harm international support for
Pakistan. Nuclear deterrence can also be an effective tool to manage the situation; there should
also be the use of confidence-building measures to open ways for negotiations on Kashmir issue.

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