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Procedia Structural
Structural IntegrityIntegrity
Procedia2 (2016) 2495–2503
00 (2016) 000–000
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

21st European Conference on Fracture, ECF21, 20-24 June 2016, Catania, Italy
21st European Conference on Fracture, ECF21, 20-24 June 2016, Catania, Italy
Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Fracture Initiation in Mild Steel
Monte CarloConference
XV Portuguese Simulation to Predict
on Fracture, Fracture
PCF 2016, Initiation
10-12 February in Mild
2016, Paço Steel
de Arcos, Portugal
Yoshiki Nemoto1*, Kazuki Shibanuma1, Katsuyuki Suzuki2, Shuji Aihara1
Thermo-mechanical modeling
Yoshiki Nemoto1*, Kazuki of a1, high
Shibanuma pressure
Katsuyuki Suzuki2turbine blade
, Shuji Aihara 1
Department of System Innovation, the University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
1 of an
2

2
Research into 1Artifacts,
Department Center
of System airplane gas turbine engine
for Engineering,
Innovation,The
theUniversity
UniversityofofTokyo,
Tokyo,5-1-5,
7-3-1,Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa,
Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Chiba,
Tokyo, 277-8563 Japan.
Japan
Research into Artifacts, Center for Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba, 277-8563 Japan.
a b c
Abstract P. Brandão , V. Infante , A.M. Deus *
Abstracta
Department
The brittle of Mechanical
fracture Engineering,
occurs suddenly and canInstituto
cause Superior
the fatalTécnico, Universidade
accident, so it needsdetoLisboa, Av. Rovisco
be prevented. ThePais, 1, 1049-001
brittle Lisboa,
fracture has been
Portugal
studied
Theb by a lotfracture
brittle of researchers,
occurs but the quantitative
suddenly and can relationship
cause the fatal between so
accident, fracture
it toughness
needs to be and microstructure
prevented. The brittle has not become
fracture has been
IDMEC, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa,
clear. Inby
studied this study,
a lot we developed
of researchers, butthe
thenumerical model
quantitative to predict
relationship cleavage
between
Portugal fracture
fracture toughness
toughness andof mild steel by
microstructure integrating
has not the
become
formulation
clear.
c
In thisin
CeFEMA, previous
study,
Department studies.
we developed Besides,
of Mechanical the proposed
the numerical model
Engineering, model wascleavage
to predict
Instituto Superior validated by comparing
fracture
Técnico, Universidade toughness the of
predicted
de Lisboa, mild results
steel
Av. RoviscobyPais,with the theLisboa,
integrating
1, 1049-001
experimentalinresults.
formulation previousThestudies.
three-point bending
Besides, tests withmodel
the proposed notchedwas specimen
validatedwere
Portugal conductedthe
by comparing andpredicted
the fracture initiation
results sites were
with the
observed by SEM
experimental in order
results. to validatebending
The three-point the proposed model.
tests with The predicted
notched specimenfracture toughnessand
were conducted values showed initiation
the fracture good agreement with
sites were
those
observed of the
by experiments.
SEM in orderThe fracture the
to validate initiation sitesmodel.
proposed whichThe the predicted
model predicted
fracturealso show good
toughness agreement
values with them.
showed good It is found
agreement with
Abstract
that
those theofproposed model represents
the experiments. The fracture the initiation
quantitative
sitesrelationship between
which the model fracturealso
predicted toughness
show goodand microstructure
agreement withofthem. mild It
steel and
is found
predicts fracture toughness
that the proposed with high
model represents theaccuracy.
quantitative relationship between fracture toughness and microstructure of mild steel and
© During
2016 The
predicts their
fracture operation,
Authors. modern
Published
toughness with by
high aircraft
Elsevier engine components are subjected to increasingly demanding operating conditions,
B.V.
accuracy.
Copyright
especially © 2016
the The Authors.
high pressure Published
turbine by Elsevier
(HPT) B.V.Such
blades. This isconditions
an open access
causearticle
theseunder
partstheto CC BY-NC-ND
undergo license
different types of time-dependent
Peer-review under responsibility
© 2016 The Authors. Published by of Elsevier
the Scientific
B.V. Committee of ECF21.
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
degradation, one of which is creep. A model using the finite element method (FEM) was developed, in order to be able to predict
Peer-review
Peer-review under responsibility of Scientific
the Scientific Committee of ECF21.
the creepunder responsibility
behaviour of HPT of the
blades. FlightCommittee of ECF21.
data records (FDR) for a specific aircraft, provided by a commercial aviation
Keywords: Fracture toughness, Fracture initiation, Cleavage fracture, Monte Carlo mrthod, Mild steel
company, were used to obtain thermal and mechanical data for three different flight cycles. In order to create the 3D model
Keywords: Fracture toughness, Fracture initiation, Cleavage fracture, Monte Carlo mrthod, Mild steel
needed for the FEM analysis, a HPT blade scrap was scanned, and its chemical composition and material properties were
obtained. The data that was gathered was fed into the FEM model and different simulations were run, first with a simplified 3D
1. rectangular
Introduction block shape, in order to better establish the model, and then with the real 3D mesh obtained from the blade scrap. The
1. overall
Introduction
expected behaviour in terms of displacement was observed, in particular at the trailing edge of the blade. Therefore such a
The brittle
model can befracture
useful inoccurs
the goalsuddenly and turbine
of predicting can cause bladethe fatal
life, accident,
given a set of soFDR it needs
data. to be prevented. It is said that the
brittle
Thefracture dependsoccurs
brittle fracture on thesuddenly
weakest and
part can
by Lin (1987)
cause and accident,
the fatal it is also said
so itthat
needsthetobrittle fracture toughness
be prevented. has the
It is said that the
© 2016
scatter
brittle byThe
fracture Authors.
Wallindepends Published
(1987). by Elsevier
onBeremin (1987)
the weakest B.V.
partand
byPenau (2006)
et al. and
Lin (1987) it isintroduced the the
also said that stress parameter
brittle fracturewhich is based
toughness hasonthe
Peer-review
Weibull
scatter under(1987).
bydistribution
Wallin responsibility
to evaluate
Beremin of
thethe Scientific
scatter
(1987) and Committee
of fracture
Penau al.of(2006)
PCF 2016.
ettoughness. This theory the
introduced is called
stress“Beremin
parametermodel”
which isand a loton
based of
researches has been done
Weibull distribution based on
to evaluate theBeremin
scatter ofmodel because
fracture it enables
toughness. This to quantify
theory the scatter
is called and the
“Beremin size effect
model” from
and a lot of
Keywords:
Bordet High Pressure
(2005). Turbine Blade;
Valiente Creep; Finite
(2005) Elementprobability
proposed Method; 3D Model; Simulation.
fracture model ofthe ferrite pearlite steel.
et al.
researches has been done basedet on
al. Beremin model because it enables to quantify scatter and the sizeHowever,
effect from
Bordet et al. (2005). Valiente et al. (2005) proposed probability fracture model of ferrite pearlite steel. However,

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +81-3-5841-6554.

* Corresponding nemoto@struct.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
E-mail address:author. Tel.: +81-3-5841-6554.
E-mail address: nemoto@struct.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
2452-3216 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Peer-review underThe
* Corresponding
2452-3216 © 2016 responsibility
author. of218419991.
Tel.: +351
Authors. theby
Published Scientific Committee of ECF21.
Elsevier B.V.
E-mail address:
Peer-review amd@tecnico.ulisboa.pt
under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of ECF21.

2452-3216 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of PCF 2016.
Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of ECF21.
10.1016/j.prostr.2016.06.312
2496 Yoshiki Nemoto et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 2 (2016) 2495–2503
2 Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000

these studies are to evaluate fracture toughness based on experimental results and not to express quantitative
relationship between fracture toughness and microstructure of steel.
On the other hand, the initiation process of cleavage fracture, which is one type of brittle fracture, has been
studied. It is known that, cleavage fracture is initiated at the second phase which is high strength and low toughness,
such as cementite, and its distribution and size have influence on fracture toughness in steel material which mainly
consists of ferrite from Curry and Knott (1978). The many studies to find out the process of cleavage fracture
initiation and to validate them have been done by researchers including Almond et al. (1969), Petch (1986) and
Bingley (2001). Smith et al. (1970) suggested that the shear at ferrite inside pearlite form the micro-crack at pearlite
which cause cleavage fracture and it is validated by Park et al. (1979) and Daoming (1991). Other researchers also
attempted to formulate the process of cleavage fracture such as Duckworth and Baird (1969), Pickering (1971),
Hyzak and Bernstain (1976), but they indicate empirical formula which shows a tendency of fracture toughness, not
show the influence of microstructure on fracture toughness quantitatively.
Shibanuma et al. (2015) proposed the numerical model to predict fracture toughness of ferrite-cementite steel by
Monte Carlo method based on the fracture initiation process of ferrite cementite steel introduced by McMahon and
Cohen (1965), Hahn (1984) and Lin (1987). Although this model can be predict fracture toughness with favourable
accuracy, ferrite-cementite steel has too simple microstructure to have strength enough to use in practice. Therefore
the extension of the model to other steel materials for practical use remains as a challenge. Hiraide et al. (2015)
extended the prediction model of fracture toughness to ferrite pearlite steel, which is the most popular steel to use
for structures. The process of cleavage fracture initiation is evaluated by dividing into three stages, (I) Nucleation of
a crack at a pearlite particle; (II) Propagation of the crack at pearlite into ferrite matrix and a formation of cleavage
crack; (III) Propagation of the cleavage crack across ferrite grain boundary. This model can show influence of ferrite
grain size and temperature dependence on fracture toughness, but overestimate the influence of volume fraction of
pearlite on fracture toughness. Shibanuma et al. (2016) revaluated the formulation of stage I by conducting
experiments and observations about pearlite cracking under a wider temperature range.

Nomenclature

p probability of perlite cracking initiation

q equivalent plastic strain
 FP local fracture stress of stage II
n normal stress acting on the crack plane
a major axis length of the elliptical crack
b minor axis length of the elliptical crack
E Young’s modulus
 Poisson ratio
P effective surface energy with a propagation of crack at a pearlite particle into ferrite matrix
 FF local fracture stress of stage III
D diameter of the crack formed in the ferrite grain in stage II
F effective surface energy with a propagation of crack across ferrite grain boundary
 quasi-CTOD (quasi-crack tip opening displacement)
K stress intensity factor
Y yield stress
r rotation factor
W specimen width
d notch depth
Vp plastic component of the notch mouth opening displacement
c critical quasi-CTOD
 Yoshiki Nemoto et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 2 (2016) 2495–2503 2497
Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000 3

In this study, based on the above previous research, we developed the Monte Carlo simulation model to predict
cleavage fracture initiation process of ferrite pearlite steel by integrating the formulation which Shibanuma et al.
proposed. The proposed model represents the quantitative relationship between fracture toughness and microstructure
of ferrite pearlite steel and predicts fracture toughness. Besides, we compared the experimental results with predicted
results in relation to three types of steel and validated the proposed model.

2. Formulation of the fracture initiation process

It is regarded that the brittle fracture of ferrite pearlite steel occurs when the nucleated crack at pearlite breaks into
ferrite phase as Curry and Knott (1978) mentioned. Smith (1970) suggested that the nucleation of crack at pearlite is
caused by shear which acts inside ferrite. It is assumed that .the microscopic brittle fracture initiation process is
composed of three stages based on the above view Hiraide et al. (2015) proposed. (I) Nucleation of a crack at a pearlite
particle; (II) Propagation of the crack at pearlite into ferrite matrix and a formation of cleavage crack; (III) Propagation
of the cleavage crack across ferrite grain boundary. Figure 1 shows the schematic diagram of the fracture initiation
process. The fracture conditions are formulated by considering the three stages. Each fracture condition is explained
as follows.

II III

Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of the fracture initiation process

2.1. Nucleation of a crack at a pearlite particle (Stage I)

The crack nucleated at a pearlite particle causes the brittle fracture initiation as mentioned above. Shibanuma et al.
(2016) quantified the degree of perlite cracking by the probability. The probability of perlite cracking initiation p is
expressed as
3
p  5.5 q   q (1)

where  q is the equivalent plastic strain.

2.2. Propagation of the crack at pearlite into ferrite matrix (Stage II)

The nucleated crack across the pearlite particle propagates into ferrite matrix. The critical condition of the
propagation of the pearlite cracking into ferrite matrix is defined based on Griffith theory by using local fracture stress
as  FP

 n   FP (2)
2498 Yoshiki Nemoto et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 2 (2016) 2495–2503
4 Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000

where  n is the normal stress acting on the crack plane. Here the shape of the nucleated crack is approximated as
ellipse from Nemoto et al.’s observation (2016). Therefore the local fracture stress ߪ୊୔ is expressed by considering
the shape of the crack as

b2 2 2 E P
 FP   2 1  (1  ) sin 2
 d  (3)
0 a2  (1   2 )b
where a and b are the major and minor axis length of the elliptical crack, respectively. E is a Young’s modulus, 
is a Poisson ratio and  P is effective surface energy with a propagation of crack at a pearlite particle into ferrite
matrix.

2.3. Propagation of the cleavage crack across ferrite grain boundary (Stage III)

The crack crossing the ferrite grain breaks through the ferrite grain boundary and propagates into the next grain.
The fracture condition of the propagation of the crack across ferrite grain boundary is defined as

 n   FF (5)

 FF is defined based on Griffith theory as with the stage II and expressed as

E F
 FF  (6)
(1   2 ) D

where D is a diameter of the crack formed in the ferrite grain in stage II and F is effective surface energy with a
propagation of crack across ferrite grain boundary.

3. Development of the model to predict fracture initiation

The numerical model to predict fracture initiation was developed based on the above formulation of the microscopic
mechanism. The calculation procedure to predict fracture initiation is as below.
(1) An active zone is defined as a larger domain than where the cleavage fracture can initiates. It depends on a
specimen or a structure geometry and test conditions. The active zone is divided into volume elements with the same
size as cubes. The size of volume elements is larger than the maximum grain size.
(2) The microstructure of ferrite pearlite steel is modeled. Ferrite grains and pearlite particles are approximated to
spheres and spheroids, respectively. Crystal grains, ferrite grains and pearlite particles, are assigned at random to each
volume element. The volume fraction of pearlite depends on carbon concentration. The size of ferrite grains and
pearlite particles are determined based on distribution of ferrite grain diameter and pearlite band thickness.
(3) Stress tensor and equivalent plastic strain at each volume element are calculated by a macroscopic elastoplastic
finite element analysis. It requires a true stress-strain curve of the steel and the information of the applied
displacement/loading to the specimen or structure. The mesh size of finite element in the active zone must be
sufficiently smaller than the size of volume element.
(4) It is evaluated whether the fracture initiates or not. The fracture condition at each stage of the above fracture
initiation process is evaluated. The brittle fracture is assumed to occur when all the fracture conditions of stage-I, II
and III of the fracture initiation process are simultaneously satisfied. This is the assumption of “weakest link”
mechanism in the proposed model.
 Yoshiki Nemoto et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 2 (2016) 2495–2503 2499
Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000 5

4. Validation of the model

Brittle fracture toughness tests were conducted to validate the proposed model. We employed three types of steel
in this study. The material information of the steels were obtained at first. Next, quasi-CTOD tests were conducted as
fracture toughness tests. Then trial calculations to predict brittle fracture toughness were conducted by the proposed
model. The results of the tests and predictions are compared and the proposed model was validated.

4.1. Test steel

Three types of steels, steel A, B and C, are employed in this study. They have various grain sizes, ferrite grain
diameter and pearlite band thickness by deferent chemical compositions and heat treatments. Chemical compositions
and rolling conditions of test steels are shown in Table 1 and 2, respectively.

Table 1. Chemical component of test steels [mass%]

Steel C Si Mn P S Al N
A 0.18 0.15 0.99 <0.002 0.0005 0.019 0.0008
B 0.18 0.15 0.99 <0.002 0.0005 0.019 0.0008
C 0.09 0.15 0.99 <0.002 0.0005 0.019 0.0008

Table 2. Rolling conditions

Steel Rolling Heating Holding Cooling
A 900oC
B Hot Rolling 1000oC 1h Air
C 900oC

Optical micrographs of the test steels are shown in Fig.2. The distributions of ferrite grain diameter were obtained
by EBSD method. Crystal grains were distinguished by the difference of crystal orientation and what appeared to be
a pearlite were eliminated from these crystal grains. The rest of the crystal grains were regarded as ferrite grains and
equivalent area diameters of them were measured. The distributions of pearlite band thickness were obtained from
these micrographs by the image processing method. The images of the micrographs were captured in the vertical
direction at fixed intervals as pearlite bands were crossed. The length of pearlite band crossed by the image were
measured. The distributions of ferrite grain diameter and pearlite band thickness obtained by the above method are
shown in Fig.3 and respective values of grain sizes in each steel are shown in Table 3.

Table 2. Chemical component of test steels [mass%]

Steel Rolling Heating Holding Cooling
A 900 Co

B Hot Rolling 1000oC 1h Air

C 900 Co

50m 50m 50m

(a) Steel A (b) Steel B (c) Steel C

Fig. 2. Microstructure of test steels.

4.2. Three-point bending tests

Three-point bending tests were conducted as fracture toughness tests with notched specimens. The configuration
of the specimen used in the tests is shown in Fig.4. The test temperatures were set at five temperatures in each type of
2500 Yoshiki Nemoto et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 2 (2016) 2495–2503
6 Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000

steel at intervals 10°C within �1�0°C� � 100°C in Steel A and B, and �1�0°C� �1�0°C in Steel C. Quasi-CTOD
is employed as a parameter of the fracture toughness. The quasi-CTOD  is calculated by simply applying the CTOD
estimation formula of BS 7448 (1991), as

K 2 (1   2 ) r (W  d )Vp
  (1)
2 Y E r (W  d )  a
where  Y is yield stress, r is the rotation factor (=0.4), W is specimen width (=10mm) and d is notch depth
(=10mm). Vp is a plastic component of the notch mouth opening displacement which is measured by a clip-gauge.
K is a stress intensity factor.

1,0 1,0

0,8 0,8
Area fraction

Area fraction
0,6 0,6

0,4 0,4 A

0,2 B
0,2
C
0,0 0,0
0,00 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,10 0,00 0,02 0,04 0,06
Ferrite grain diameter [mm] Perlite band thickness [mm]
Fig. 3. Distributions of grain sizes (a) Ferrite grain diameter (b) Pearlite band thickness

Table 3. Representative values of test steels

Ferrite grain diameter [m] Pearlite band thickness [m]
Steel
Mean Maximum Mean Maximum
A 38.7 83.1 14.0 85.4
B 56.0 120.6 17.8 68.5
C 45.8 99.0 9.2 31.3

The fracture initiation site were obtained by fractography using a SEM because fracture initiation sites were
determined for the validation of the proposed model as well as the fracture toughness (Chen and Wang, 1998). The
initiation sites were identified by tracing river pattern markings on the fracture surface. The distance from the notch
root to the fracture initiation site was measured.

Rolling Direction

60
10
2
20

80 10 0.25
unit : mm Notch Detail

Fig. 4. Schematic diagram of the fracture initiation process

 Yoshiki Nemoto et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 2 (2016) 2495–2503 2501
Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000 7

4.3. Validation of the model

The prediction of the fracture toughness tests by the proposed model and the validation of the model were conducted
by comparing with the experimental results. Ten trials of the Monte Carlo simulation are conducted for the respective
conditions of temperatures and types of steel. The setting conditions employed in this time were as below.
(1) The active zone was defined as a rectangular domain in front of notch, whose size was 1mm by 1mm by 10mm
in the width, axis and thickness directions of the specimen, respectively. The fracture initiation sites observed in the
experiments were in this domain. The volume element was defined as a cube with a length of 0.1mm. It is larger than
the volume of the maximum grain. As a result, the number of the volume elements in the active zone was 2000.
(2) The sizes of crystal grains were determined based on the distributions shown in Fig.3 (a) and (b). The volume
fraction of pearlite at each volume element is dispersed by Monte Carlo method based on carbon concentration.
(3) A quarter-symmetry finite element model was employed. The analysis was conducted considering the finite
deformation theory by ABAQUS from Dassault Systems (2011). The number of nodes is 22,776 and that of elements
is 20,102. In addition, the quasi-CTOD was calculated from the load-displacement curve.
(4) Effective surface energy of stage II and III were assumed be the values depending on temperature based on the
experimental results which San Martin and Rodriguez (1999) obtained.
The comparison of critical quasi-CTOD  c and fracture initiation sites between experiments and predictions are
shown in Fig.5 and 6, respectively. Both of them show good agreement, that is most of the experimental results are
located within the range of the scatter of predicted results. They also show the temperature dependency of fracture
toughness and fracture initiation sites. However, there are some experimental results out of the range of the scatter in
steel B, which has the distributions of the largest crystal grains. This remains as challenge.

1,0E+00
Model prediction Model prediction
Experiment Experiment
Critical quasi-CTOD ߜ… [mm]

1,0E-01

1,0E-02
Model prediction
Experiment
1,0E-03
-180 -160 -140 -120 -100 -80 -180 -160 -140 -120 -100 -80 -180 -160 -140 -120 -100 -80
Temperature [Ԩ] Temperature [Ԩ] Temperature [Ԩ]
(a) Steel A (b) Steel B (c) Steel C

Fig. 5. Comparison of fracture toughness

1,0
Fracture initiation site [mm]

Model prediction Model prediction Model prediction

0,8 Experiment Experiment Experiment

0,6

0,4

0,2

0,0
-180 -160 -140 -120 -100 -80 -180 -160 -140 -120 -100 -80 -180 -160 -140 -120 -100 -80
Temperature [Ԩ] Temperature [Ԩ] Temperature [Ԩ]
(a) Steel A (b) Steel B (c) Steel C

Fig. 6. Comparison of fracture initiation sites

2502 Yoshiki Nemoto et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 2 (2016) 2495–2503
8 Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000

5. Conclusions

The Monte Carlo simulation model to predict cleavage fracture initiation process of ferrite pearlite steel was
developed. Before the development of the model, the fracture initiation process is divided into three stage and the
fracture condition of each stage is formulated. The simulation model are developed based on the formulations. The
proposed model was validated by comparing the experimental results with predicted results in relation to three types
of steel. They show almost good agreement and it means the proposed model represents the quantitative relationship
between fracture toughness and microstructure of ferrite pearlite steel. However, some comparison results are not
consistent and the improvement of them are still challenge.

Acknowledgements

Part of the present study was supported by ISIJ Research Promotion Grant.

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