Untuk Latihan Dekomposisi Semua MA yang digunakan untuk data genap adalah double moving av

T kali C Y/MA

t Tahun CPI MA Double Moving Average I*E

1 2000Q1 51.955
2 2000Q2 52.791
3 2000Q3 53.719 53.648 54.318 0.988977582
4 2000Q4 56.128 54.988 55.788 1.006095794
5 2001Q1 57.312 56.588 57.462 0.997391136
6 2001Q2 59.193 58.336 59.216 0.999614644
7 2001Q3 60.710 60.097 61.131 0.993111741
8 2001Q4 63.172 62.165 63.036 1.002149115
9 2002Q1 65.584 63.908 64.724 1.013288536
10 2002Q2 66.164 65.541 66.347 0.997249286
11 2002Q3 67.244 67.153 67.740 0.992681337
12 2002Q4 69.617 68.327 68.905 1.010338948
13 2003Q1 70.284 69.482 70.015 1.003843911
14 2003Q2 70.784 70.547 70.996 0.997007288
15 2003Q3 71.50363 71.445 71.894 0.994564525
16 2003Q4 73.21007 72.344 72.948 1.003597985
17 2004Q1 73.87664 73.552 74.112 0.99681833
18 2004Q2 75.61641 74.673 75.259 1.004749621
19 2004Q3 75.98969 75.845 76.658 0.991282798
20 2004Q4 77.8961 77.471 78.173 0.996461309
21 2005Q1 80.38243 78.874 79.735 1.008119546
22 2005Q2 81.22898 80.596 82.262 0.98744024
23 2005Q3 82.87542 83.929 85.510 0.969189094
24 2005Q4 91.22762 87.092 88.669 1.028858171
25 2006Q1 93.03404 90.246 91.753 1.013957628
26 2006Q2 93.84727 93.261 94.013 0.9982363
27 2006Q3 94.93378 94.765 95.494 0.994136429
28 2006Q4 97.2468 96.222 96.618 1.006510787
29 2007Q1 98.86 97.014 97.014 1.019033122
31 2007Q3 100.99 100.790 101.960 0.990486465
32 2007Q4 102.52 103.130 103.999 0.985781079
33 2008Q1 105.88 104.868 106.400 0.995112782
34 2008Q2 110.08 107.933 109.350 1.006675812
35 2008Q3 113.25 110.768 111.816 1.012822376
36 2008Q4 113.86 112.865 113.368 1.004344279
37 2009Q1 114.27 113.870 114.271 0.999989061
38 2009Q2 114.1 114.673 115.069 0.99158112
39 2009Q3 116.46 115.465 115.955 1.004355138
40 2009Q4 117.03 116.445 117.165 0.998847779
41 2010Q1 118.19 117.885 118.729 0.995462346
42 2010Q2 119.86 119.573 120.590 0.99394643
43 2010Q3 123.21 121.608 122.590 1.005057509
44 2010Q4 125.17 123.573 124.403 1.00616949
45 2011Q1 126.05 125.233 125.943 1.000853564
46 2011Q2 126.5 126.653 127.245 0.994145153Chart Title
47 2011Q3 128.89 127.838 1.06
128.463 1.003327819
48 2011Q4 129.91 129.088 129.804 1.000818543
1.04
49 2012Q1 131.05 130.520 131.215 0.998742522
50 2012Q2 132.23 131.910 1.02 132.608 0.997153253
51 2012Q3 134.45 133.305 1
134.271 1.00133126
52 2012Q4 135.49 135.238 136.213 0.994695788
53 2013Q1 137.188 0.98
138.78
54 2013Q2 140.03 138.100 0.96
55 2013Q3 0.94
56 2013Q4
57 2014Q1 0.92

58 2014Q2 0.9
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
59 2014Q3
60 2014Q4

DATA KALAU GANJIL, NANTI TDK PERLU NYARI DOUBLE MOVING AVERAGE

Chart Title
160.000

140.000
f(x) = 0.0007007815x^2 + 1.6798012312x + 48.3650255885
R² = 0.9937228087
120.000

100.000

80.000

60.000

40.000

20.000

0.000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
tuk data genap adalah double moving average nya

Error kuadrat dari Error Kuadrat dari trend

trend Kuadratik liner
Trend kuadratik C I Trend Linier
50.0292 49.683 3.708 5.161
51.7098 51.403 1.170 1.928
53.3918 1.017348 53.123 0.107 0.356
55.0752 1.012942 54.843 1.109 1.651
56.76 1.012369 56.563 0.305 0.561
58.4462 1.013176 58.283 0.558 0.829
60.1338 1.016579 60.003 0.332 0.499
61.8228 1.019626 61.723 1.819 2.099
63.5132 1.019069 63.443 4.290 4.586
65.205 1.017512 65.163 0.920 1.003
66.8982 1.012583 66.883 0.120 0.130
68.5928 1.004549 68.603 1.049 1.029
70.2888 0.9961 70.323 0.000 0.002
71.9862 0.986247 72.043 1.446 1.586
73.685 0.975699 73.763 4.758 5.105
75.3852 0.967665 75.483 4.731 5.166
77.0868 0.961415 77.203 10.305 11.065
78.7898 0.955187 78.923 10.070 10.934
80.4942 0.952341 80.643 20.291 21.653
82.2 0.951006 82.363 18.524 19.953
83.9072 0.950276 84.083 12.424 13.694
85.6158 0.960829 85.803 19.244 20.922
87.3258 0.979207 87.523 19.806 21.600
89.0372 0.995862 89.243 4.798 3.939
90.75 1.011057 90.963 5.217 4.289
92.4642 1.016751 92.683 1.913 1.356
94.1798 1.013951 94.403 0.568 0.282
95.8968 1.007518 96.123 1.823 1.263
97.6152 0.993836 97.843 1.550 1.034
101.0562 1.008944 101.283 0.004 0.086
102.7788 1.01187 103.003 0.067 0.233
104.5028 1.018155 104.723 1.897 1.339
106.2282 1.029388 106.443 14.836 13.228
107.955 1.035767 108.163 28.037 25.878
109.6832 1.03359 109.883 17.446 15.817
111.4128 1.025656 111.603 8.164 7.113
113.1438 1.017013 113.323 0.914 0.604
114.8762 1.009391 115.043 2.508 2.008
116.61 1.004759 116.763 0.176 0.071
118.3452 1.003241 118.483 0.024 0.086
120.0818 1.004232 120.203 0.049 0.118
 121.8198 1.006322 121.923 1.933 1.656
123.5592 1.006825 123.643 2.595 2.332
125.3 1.005128 125.363 0.562 0.472
Chart Title127.0422 1.001596 127.083 0.294 0.340
128.7858 0.99749 128.803 0.011 0.008
130.5308 0.99443 130.523 0.385 0.376
132.2772 0.99197 132.243 1.506 1.423
134.025 0.989424 133.963 3.222 3.003
135.7742 0.988931 135.683 1.754 1.520
137.5248 0.990458 4.140 18357.540
139.2768 4.682 357.672
141.0302
142.785 1 0.998878 142.6248556374
144.5412 1 1.001582 144.7698169077
146.2988 1 1.002244 146.6271320414
148.0578 1 0.997296 147.6573995059
3 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
149.8182 1 0.998878 149.6501673626
151.58 1 1.001582 151.8197499874
Trend kuadratik musiman forecast
nilai forecast cpi

5885

Pendapatan Operasional
Bersih BTPN

50 60
 160

140
f(x) = 0.0007239939x^2 + 1.6784769504x + 48.3736250115
R² = 0.9937237502
120

100

80

60 Polynomial ()

40

20

0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 2 9 33 37 41 45 49 53

Untuk memisahkan I dan E

Tahun Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2000 0.988978 1.006096 0.988978 1.006096
2001 0.997391 0.999615 0.993112 1.002149 0.997391 0.999615 0.993112 1.002149
2002 1.013289 0.997249 0.992681 1.010339
2003 1.003844 0.997007 0.994565 1.003598
2004 0.996818 1.004750 0.991283 0.996461
2005 1.008120 0.987440 0.969189 1.028858
2006 1.013958 0.998236 0.994136 1.003749
2007 1.005675 0.994200 0.997383 0.990531
2008 0.995113 1.006676 1.012822 1.004344
2009 0.999989 0.991581 1.004355 0.998848
2010 0.995462 0.993946 1.005058 1.006169
2011 1.000854 0.994145 1.003328 1.000819
2012 0.998743 0.997153 1.001331 0.994696
minimum 0.995113 0.987440 0.969189 0.990531
maximum 1.013958 1.006676 1.012822 1.028858
rata-rata medial 1.002085 0.996788 0.998720 1.001423 3.999016
Indeks musim 1.002332 0.997034 0.998966 1.001669 4
4.000000
 Siklus
Maximum 1.035767
Minimum 0.950276
Pemilu 1.014205

6.0802198865
6.8490788307
5.6543680944
5.4469752952
4.9257274924
4.869753399

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.996483
R Square 0.992979
Adjusted R 0.992835
Standard E 2.236097
Observatio 51

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 34650.01 34650.01 6929.823 1.96E-54
Residual 49 245.0064 5.00013
Total 50 34895.02

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95,0%
Intercept 47.9625 0.629755 76.16061 1.49E-52 46.69696 49.22804 46.69696
X Variable 1.720875 0.020672 83.24556 1.96E-54 1.679332 1.762417 1.679332
3736250115

Polynomial ()

9 53
Upper 95,0%
49.22804
1.762417