Professional Documents
Culture Documents
By David. S. Chou*
Realism has been the driving force for U.S. policy toward South Asia.
The end of the Cold War freed both the United States and India from the
Soviet factor. Washington and New Delhi accelerated the pace of improving
relations with each other; meanwhile, the strategic importance of Pakistan
to Washington declined. The United States imposed sanctions against
Pakistan in 1990 because it would no longer tolerate Islamabad’s
clandestine development of nuclear weapons. The Clinton administration
adopted a policy of tilting toward India, considering India a more important
partner than Pakistan in political, commercial, and potentially strategic
terms. The long-standing policy of preventing the proliferation of weapons
of mass destruction (WMD) in South Asia suffered a sudden death when
both India and Pakistan openly held nuclear tests in May 1998. Washington
retaliated by imposing sanctions against them; however, the sanctions
failed to change their nuclear policy, and the United States soon lifted part
of the sanctions. The George Bush administration inclined to adopt an
“ India First” policy toward South Asia, but the September 11 attacks
∗
This paper is based largely on the author’s book, U.S. Policy Toward South Asia in the
Post-Cold War Era (Taipei: Sheng-Chih Book Co. Ltd., 2003).
Dr. David Chou (周煦) is Professor of the Department of Diplomacy, National Chengchi
University. He has a Ph.D. from Duke University and specializes in U.S. policy toward
East Asia.
28 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs
Realism is always the driving force behind the evolution of U.S. policy
toward South Asia. Realists argue that there is no eternal friend or eternal
enemy, only eternal national interest. The U.S. eternal interest is to preclude
a hostile power from dominating Europe or Asia. In order to maintain that
interest the United States built a global alliance system to contain the Soviet
Union during the Cold War era, and wanted India, the dominant state in
South Asia, to join it. However, India adopted a non-alignment policy.1
Washington was forced to choose Pakistan as an ally for containing the
Soviet Union in South Asia. The U.S.-Pakistani relations fluctuated
according to the rise and fall of Pakistan’s strategic value to the United
States. For instance, because the Carter administration at first adopted a
policy of détente and cooperation with the Soviet Union, it downgraded the
strategic importance of Pakistan, and in October 1979, suspended economic
and military assistance to Islamabad for its clandestine development of
nuclear weapons. Meanwhile it improved relations with India and
continued to supply India with nuclear fuels for India’s nuclear reactors in
1
For U.S.-Pakistan relations in the Cold War era, see Satu .P. Limaya, U.S.-Indian
Relations: The
Pursuit of Accommodation (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1993).
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 29
spite of the fact that India had detonated a nuclear device in 1974. The
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 restored Pakistan’s
strategic value to the United States. Carter offered to renew economic and
military aid to Pakistan. The latter rejected the aid as “peanuts”. Only after
the Reagan administration raised the aid to $3.2 billion for six years did
Pakistan agreed to help the United States engage in a proxy war against the
Soviet Union in Afghanistan. When Moscow withdrew its troops from
Afghanistan in 1988, Pakistan lost again its importance to the United States.
The war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban regime of Afghanistan in 2001
dramatically enhanced Pakistan’s strategic value to the United States. This
paper seeks to show that since the end of the Cold War, the United States
has moved from improving relations with India to an “India First” policy,
largely due to the strategic consideration of the “China Threat,” and that the
need of an anti-terrorist campaign in Afghanistan turned Pakistan into a
frontline state and forced Washington to maintain a balanced policy toward
India and Pakistan.
When George H. W. Bush came to power in 1989, the Cold War was
drawing to an end and the Soviet Union was in the process of disintegration.
Uncertain of the changing international relations, the Bush administration
refrained from making fundamental changes in its policy toward South Asia.
Consequently, there was more continuity than change.
Pakistan.
In June 1989, the Pakistani Premier Benazir Bhutto visited the United
States and held talks with President Bush. The latter reiterated U.S. pledges
for the security and economic development of Pakistan, and agreed to sell
Pakistan 28 F-16 fighter planes. He also asked the U.S. Congress to provide
Islamabad with $380 million economic aid and $240 million military aid in
FY1990.2 The official rationale for the aid was that the Afghan Communist
regime installed by Moscow still existed, and the Afghan resistance forces
had yet to overthrow it. In other words, the United States had to work
closely with Pakistan for the sake of containing Soviet influence in
Afghanistan.
When the United States imposed sanctions against Pakistan in 1990 in
an effort to dissuade the latter from developing nuclear weapons, the U.S.
Department of Defense and military agencies still tried to maintain normal
military links with their counterparts in Pakistan, partly because Pakistan
was considered very important for U.S. military operations in the Gulf,
partly because they wanted to maintain their long-standing influence on the
Pakistani military, and partly because they did not relish the prospect that
Pakistan might be forced to side with the radical Muslim states for help in
its confrontation against India. As a result, the United States engaged in a
series of selective sales of military spare parts and equipments to Pakistan.3
In August 1992, U.S. naval ships conducted contacts with two Pakistani
naval ships in the Arabian Seas near Karachi. Although these efforts had no
impact on preventing Pakistan from developing nuclear weapons, Pakistan
supported the United States in the Gulf War.
2
The Washington Post, June 7, 1989, A4.
3
Ibid., March 3, 1992, A4.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 31
(WMDs)
One of the main goals of the Bush administration’s South Asia policy
was to prevent the proliferation of WMDs. Due to strategic considerations,
President Bush at first chose to ignore Pakistan’s clandestine development
of nuclear weapons. Like President Reagan, Bush’s priority goal was to
contain Soviet influence in Afghanistan,
Therefore, he needed the cooperation of Pakistan. In May 1989, CIA
Director
William H. Webster warned that there were indications that India was
interested in acquiring the capability of nuclear weapons, that Pakistan was
obviously engaged in developing nuclear weapons, and, therefore, that
there would soon emerge a nuclear arms race in South Asia.4
During her visit to Washington in June, Bhutto assured Webster and
Bush that Pakistan had no interest in developing nuclear weapons and asked
Bush to help her country and other South Asian States signing the
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Bush merely asked her to stop Pakistan’s
nuclear development program, but Pakistan’s nuclear program was
controlled by the military, which never supported Bhutto’s pledge that her
government would not develop nuclear weapons. While the Bush
administration failed to persuade Pakistan from secretly developing nuclear
weapons, the Afghan Communist regime was finally overthrown, and the
country sank into a bloody civil war in which the United States had no
interest in intervening. Under these circumstances, the Bush administration
no longer tolerated Pakistan’s secret development of nuclear weapons. In
October 1990, it notified the Congress of its inability to verify that Pakistan
had not engaged in developing nuclear weapons. The Congress voted to
suspend military and economic assistance to Pakistan under the Pressler
4
Ibid., June 7, 1989, A4.
32 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs
Amendment. The White House did not even try to prevent the Congress
from taking the actions. However, the United States did not suspend
commercial military sales to Pakistan. In FY1991, which began from
October 1, 1990, the State Department approved $100 million commercial
arms sale. Its officials conceded that the sale was made with the purpose of
stabilizing the long-standing relationship with Pakistan. But they also
defended the sale by saying that it involved only spare parts for the weapons
the United States had already sold, and not for new weapons. However, the
author of the Amendment maintained that the Amendment also prohibited
commercial sales.5
After imposing sanctions against Pakistan, the United States asked for
permission to conduct inspections on Pakistan’s nuclear facilities so as to
verify Pakistan’s assertion that it had no nuclear devices. Partly because of
the consideration of national sovereignty and honor, and partly because of
the sanctions, Pakistan turned down the request. Both sides also differed on
the definition of a nuclear device. To the United States, it referred not only
to a device already assembled and ready for launching, but also to its
components. To Pakistan, it referred only to the former. Washington also
called upon Islamabad to abide by the NPT. Pakistan could not accept
Washington’s request because it was against its long-held position on the
NPT.6
The American sanctions had great impact on Pakistan. The cut-off of
American economic assistance caused the Pakistani economy to further
deteriorate. The suspension of military aid meant that Pakistan could not
obtain the F-16 fighters it had ordered and also must try to get from other
countries the spare parts to the American made fighters, tanks, and other
weapons it had already bought. The sanctions weakened Pakistan’s
5
Ibid.
6
Nazin Kamal, “Nuclear and Missile Proliferation Issues: Some Approaches to Stability in
South Asia”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, 13, no. 4 (March 1992): 378-79.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 33
7
US Department of State Dispatch (hereafter cited as Dispatch), 2, no. 47 (November 25,
1991): 859.
8
A.G. Noorani, “An India-US Détente: Potentialities and Limits”, Global Affairs, VII (Fall
1993),: 128.
34 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs
Although Russia and China agreed to take part in the conference, India
refused to do so. The conference was stillborn. American pressure on India
had gotten nowhere.9
On the issue of missile proliferation in South Asia, the United States
focused its efforts on Pakistan, because India had already possessed
indigenous capability to produce missiles, and there was no way for
Washington to prevent it from carrying out its missile program. The case of
Pakistan was different. It had no comparable (home grown) ability to
produce missiles. Its missile program heavily relied on outside assistance,
the main source of which, Washington believed, was China. Therefore, it
had repeatedly asked Beijing to abide by the Missile Technology Control
Regime (MTCR). Although in 1988 China had promised Secretary of
Defense Frank Carlucci to abide by the MTCR, it, nevertheless, agreed to
sell M-11 missiles to Pakistan. Due to strong U.S. protest, the sale was
cancelled. On June 16, 1991, the United States announced its decision to
ban the sale of supercomputers and spare parts of satellites to China,
because the latter had tried to sell missiles to Pakistan. In November,
Chinese leaders gave an oral assurance to visiting Secretary of State James
Baker that China would strictly abide by the rules of the MTCR, provided
that the United States lifted the ban. On February 21, 1992, the Bush
administration accepted China’s request and rescinded the ban.10
The United States also tried to curb India’s missile development. In
1989, Russia’s Glavobosmos sold $250 million of missile engine
technology to India’s Space Research Organization. India claimed that the
technology was used for launching commercial satellites. The United States,
however, believed that the engine could be used for missiles capable of
carrying nuclear warhead and with a range exceeding 300 kilometers;
therefore, Washington claimed the sale violated the MTCR regulation.
9
The Washington Post, February 8, 1992, A15.
10
The New York Times, February 22, 1992, A1.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 35
During the Cold War era, U.S. efforts to improve relations with India
were hindered by its strategic goal of containing the Soviet Union, because
India would not improve relations with Washington at the expense of its
relations with Moscow. The end of the Cold War, together with the end of
the U.S. containment policy toward Moscow, freed both the United States
and India from the Moscow factor and enabled them to improve bilateral
security relations.
In 1991 the U.S. and the Indian navies gradually increased bilateral
links, including small-scale but unprecedented joint exercises, code-named
Malabar 92, in the Indian Ocean. Similar relations were also established
between the army and naval departments of the two countries.
11
The Washington Post, May 12, 1989, A 15.
12
Ibid., May 28, 1989, A. 8.
36 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs
13
The United Daily, February 7, 1990, 11.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 37
The Deputy Director of the CIA Richard Kerr later revealed that the
explosive situation in South Asia was more serious than the Cuban Missile
Crisis of 1962, and that only U.S. intervention had prevented a nuclear
war.14
President Bill Clinton at first did not pay much attention to South Asia.
Before President Bush stepped down, the Congress had passed legislation
that divided the State Department Bureau of the Near East and South Asia
into two bureaus, each in charge separately of the Middle East and South
Asia affairs. Although Clinton formally established the new bureau of
South Asia affairs, it took more than a year for him to appoint the assistant
secretary for the bureau. Moreover, the new Assistant Secretary Robin
Raphal repeatedly made remarks that New Delhi considered unfriendly. On
October 28, 1993, for instance, she said that Kashmir was a disputed
territory, thereby denying the legitimacy of India’s rule in Kashmir.15 In his
address to the UN General Assembly in September 1993, President Clinton
said that India violated human rights in Kashmir. Beginning in 1994,
however, he readjusted U.S. policy toward South Asia. While improving
relations with Pakistan, he upgraded military and economic cooperation and
exchanges with India. Like his predecessors, he tried to prevent India and
Pakistan from developing nuclear weapons and to defuse the tension
between them over Kashmir.
14
C. Uday Bhaskar, “The May 1990 Nuclear Crisis: An Indian Perspective”, Strategic
Digest, 23, no.5 (May 1998): 730.
15
South China Morning Post, March 4, 1994, 13.
38 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs
relations with India. On May 14, 1994, the Indian Premier Narasimha Rao
made an official visit to the United States, the first visit by an Indian
premier since Rajiv Gandhi’s visit in 1987. Rao delivered a speech to the
U.S. Congress, the first head of a foreign government to do so since Clinton
had come to power.
Both countries looked upon Rao’s visit as an opportunity to eliminate
the cool and even tense relations between them. In order to create a friendly
atmosphere, Clinton and Rao concentrated their talks on economic and
trade cooperation and exchanges, and barely touched upon such sensitive
issues as human rights and nuclear proliferation.16
In late May, Pakistani President Farooq Leghari made a private visit to
Washington. U.S. officials virtually ignored his visit, thereby reflecting the
fact that the United States attached greater importance to relations with
India than that with Pakistan.
In mid-January 1995, Defense Secretary William Perry visited South
Asia. During his stay in India, he signed with his Indian counterpart a
security agreement whereby a “Defense Policy Forum” was established to
review strategies in the post-Cold War era, promote exchange of senior
officials and military officers, and gradually upgrade the scale of training
and joint exercises. 17 The agreement was a breakthrough in bilateral
relations. It meant that both sides decided to bury past grievances and
moved beyond economic and trade cooperation and exchanges.
Immediately after Perry’s visit, Secretary of Commerce Ron Brown
went to India.
Leading a large group of American business leaders, he signed an
agreement with his Indian counterpart to establish a “Commerce Forum”, a
sort of joint venture between government officials and business executives,
whose function was to promote bilateral economic relations.
16
The Japan Times, May 21, 1994, 9.4.
17
Ibid., January 13, 1995, 9.4.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 39
18
South Morning China Post, October 16, 1999, 9.14.
40 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs
also tried to improve U.S.– Pakistan relations. Following his visit to India,
Perry flew to Islamabad. He and his Pakistani counterpart agreed to
reactivate the U.S. – Pakistan Military Cooperation Forum that had been
suspended over the last four years.
In April 1995, Pakistan’s Premier Benazir Bhutto formally visited the
United States. She stressed the importance of improving relations between
the two countries and called upon Washington to abide by the contract the
two countries had signed and deliver the 28 F-16 fighter planes for which
Pakistan had already paid. Clinton responded positively to Bhutto’s appeal
and emphasized that Pakistan had always been and continued to be an
important partner for the United States. He conceded that the United States
was not very fair to Pakistan so far as arms sales were concerned and
promised to urge the Congress to reconsider the Pressler Amendment.
In the joint communiqué issued after their meeting, both acknowledged
that the territorial dispute on Kashmir was the root cause of regional
tensions; agreed that India and Pakistan needed to conduct substantial
dialogues for resolving the Kashmir question; reaffirmed their support for
preventing global and regional proliferation of WMD; and agreed to expand
the political and legal dimensions of bilateral defense relations.19
After Bhutto returned home, Clinton made great efforts to get the
Congress to agree to deliver the F-16 fighters to Pakistan. On October 24,
1995, the Congress passed the Brown Amendment, authorizing the
President to deliver to Pakistan the military equipment Islamabad had
ordered prior to October 1, 1990. It excluded the delivery of the fighter
planes, but authorized the President to sell them to third countries and pay
back Pakistan through the earnings from the sale. The Amendment did not
abolish the Pressler Amendment, nor did it permit arms sales to Pakistan;
however, it did help improve U.S.–Pakistani relations.
19
Dispatch, 6:17 (April 24, 1995), 356-58.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 41
The Clinton administration was also concerned with the allegation that
Pakistan supported the Muslim terrorists in Kashmir; it hoped that the two
20
International Herald Tribune, October 15, 1999, 5.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 43
21
Sumantra Bose, “Kashmin: Sources of Conflict, Dimensions of Peace,” Survival 41, no.
3 (Autumn,1999): 149-171.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 45
the power context in South Asia. The anti-terrorist campaign in general, and
the U.S.-led war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in particular, revived the
strategic value of Pakistan to the US.
22
Far Eastern Economic Review, February 15, 2001, 27.
46 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs
India and Pakistan and the new positive U.S. attitude toward New Delhi.”23
Bush downplayed the cornerstone of Clinton’s non-proliferation policy
in South Asia: persuading both India and Pakistan to sign the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The Republican-dominated U.S.
Senate voted in 1999 against ratifying the treaty. Bush’s determination to
deploy a missile defense system also undermined international and U.S.
efforts to control the missile race in South Asia. In order to strengthen
strategic relations with India, Powell signaled his opposition to sanctions
the Clinton administration had imposed on India and Pakistan in 1998 by
allowing India to import U.S.-made helicopter parts on February 2, 2001.24
On May 1, Bush announced the plan of deploying a national missile
defense system. On May 2, India’s foreign ministry immediately made a
public statement, supporting the plan. The statement came before
America’s allies, including Britain, had endorsed Bush’s plan.
The Bush administration moved swiftly to upgrade military ties
between the two countries. In June 2001, the two countries held a joint
military exercise. In July the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff
Henry Shelton visited India, the highest U.S. military officer to visit the
county since 1998. Shelton told the Indian leaders that Washington had
decided to reactivate the “Defense Policy Forum” that had been put on the
back burner three years ago.
In November, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and CINCPAC
Commander Dennie C. Blair separately visited New Delhi. As Blair said,
bilateral cooperation on the military and security issues had reached a new
level.
In mid-May 2002, hundreds of Indian and U.S. paratroopers conducted
joint exercises outside the northern city of Agra, the largest military
23
C. Raja Mohan, “A Paradigm Shift toward South Asia?” The Washington Quarterly 26,
no. 1 (Winter 2002-03):144.
24
Far Eastern Economic Review, February 15, 2001, 27.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 47
exercise ever held between the two countries. A steady stream of U.S. naval
ships had made port calls in India. The United States sold India
sophisticated radar systems to pinpoint the origin of hostile artillery fire.
The Indian navy has begun helping the United States protect international
shipping against pirates in the Malacca Strait. Today the
military-to-military relationship has become the strongest part of the
relationship between the United States and India. Washington intends to
strengthen military ties with India for the purpose of helping create an
Asian counterweight to Chinese dominance. A deeper security relationship
with the United States also dovetails neatly with India’s big-power
ambitions.
2. Anti-terrorism
25
The Washington Post, September 14, 2001, A4.
26
Ibid., September 20, 2001, A4.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 49
27
http://asia.cnn/2001/World/asiapcf/south/09/24.html
28
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A5329-2001 Oct 16.html
29
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac 2/wp-dyn/ A30844-2003 Mar15.html
50 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs
30
International Herald Tribune, April 3, 2003, 7.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 51
themselves. The sanctions were imposed against the institute, not the
Pakistani government, so as not to embarrass Musharraf. Moreover, three
days later, the United States wrote off $1 billion in Pakistani debt. The debt
relief represented nearly one third of what Pakistan owed the United States.
The rest of the money was rescheduled on more favorable terms last year
with approval from the U.S. Congress. Officials on both sides said that debt
relief was a sign of renewed friendship, the rebirth of a long-time
partnership between the two countries.
31
Alexander Evans, “India Pakistan and the Prospect of War.” Current History (April
2002): 160.
52 Tamkang Journal of International Affairs
32
Far Eastern Economic Review, January 17, 2002, 20.
33
Http://www.people.com.cn/GB/guoji/209/7077/7205/20020117/649802.html
34
Far Eastern Economic Review, May 30, 2002, 14.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 53
commercial air and bus links with Pakistan as a possible prelude to direct
talks on Kashmir. Musharraf softened his insistence on negotiating
“Kashmir First,” indicating a willingness to discuss steps such as trade and
transportation links. The two countries have restored full diplomatic ties
and resumed a cross-border bus service. But India still links talks on
Kashmir to a drop in attacks in Kashmir by separatists. Washington praised
India’s peace initiative, but does not intend to intervene in the Kashmir
dispute.
Conclusion
History clearly shows that strategic interest has been the most important
factor for U.S. policy toward South Asia. That policy has been a part of a
U.S. global strategy that seeks to prevent a hostile power from dominating
Europe or Asia. From the U.S. perspective, the Soviet Union was that
power in the Cold War era, and China emerges as the most likely candidate
for that power in the post-Cold War Era.
The end of the Cold War freed both the United States and India from the
Soviet factor. Washington and India accelerated the pace of improving
bilateral relations and widened the scope of cooperation and exchanges.
With Pakistan’s strategic value to Washington having declined in the new
international situation, Washington would no longer tolerate Pakistan’s
clandestine development of nuclear weapons and imposed sanctions on
Islamabad. The Clinton administration adopted a policy of tilting toward
India, considering India as a more important partner in political,
commercial, and strategic terms. However, the long-standing policy of
preventing the proliferation of WMD in South Asia suffered a sudden death
when India and Pakistan openly and separately held nuclear tests in May
35
Ibid., June 6, 2002, 18.
U.S. Policy Toward India and Pakistan In the Post-Cold War Era∗ 55