Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2019
MARKET
SURVEY
INTRODUCTION BY
JOSEPH D. PASQUARELLA, MAI, CRE, FRICS
Senior Managing Director | Valuation & Advisory
Market Leader – Eastern PA, DE
Welcome to the Newmark Knight Frank Valuation and Advisory 3Q 2019 Market Survey!
Below are key takeaways:
• Heading into the 4Q 2019, demand for real estate investments remains robust. Multifamily and
office properties emerged as the most sought-after property types with industrial properties
closing the gap following a record-high rate of sales in 3Q 2019.*
• The investor pool continues to deepen in the face of strong demand for space with a resilient
economy that continues to foster job growth and rising household income. As an alternative
investment to a highly volatile stock market and low interest rate environment, real estate
continues to attract investors seeking higher and more predictable yields.
• The hottest property type is warehouse distribution—especially when packaged in large
portfolios, value-add suburban multifamily and high quality, core-plus office in gateway cities.
Industrial/logistics continue to experience unprecedented rental growth in some markets, yet
construction volume will likely dampen the trajectory over the coming quarters.
• Cap rates are holding steady among most core property despite interest rate volatility.
Nationally, cap rates are lowest among CBD Class A multifamily, followed by Class A
warehouse/logistics, with CBD Class A office and Class A grocery anchor shopping centers
coming in at third and fourth place, respectively.
ABOUT NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK • Retail continues to resize, reuse and remix with tenants that have learned to co-exist with
VALUATION & ADVISORY e-commerce.
• Our specialty practice leaders continue to monitor closely the steady flow of capital from
Newmark Knight Frank Valuation & Advisory (V&A) is a leading industry innovator, comprising an extensive team of the most trusted and
investors seeking higher risk-adjusted returns. Among these are Hospitality, Gaming and Leisure,
recognized names in the valuation sector.
Healthcare & Seniors Housing, and Self Storage. Their insightful commentaries and investment
Headquartered in New York and Houston, Newmark Knight Frank V&A professionals serve clients from more than 60 offices throughout the metrics are grounded in the research their teams perform every day.
Americas. Our practice is tightly integrated with London-headquartered Knight Frank’s Valuation & Advisory organization—a premier service
provider with a highly respected professional staff covering Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Australia. This global platform enables * Source: Real Capital Analytics
us to effectively serve owners, investors, developers and financial institutions worldwide.
The V&A team possesses a deep understanding of local markets and trends, coupled with access to extensive proprietary and third-party
market data. We have real-time access to market transaction activity through a close alignment with Newmark Knight Frank’s capital markets
practice—one of the most prevalent and fastest-growing capital markets platforms in the industry.
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3Q2019 GOING-IN CAP RATE CLASS A
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
New Orleans, LA
Los Angeles, CA
Philadelphia, PA
Wilmington, DE
Washington DC
Las Vegas, NV
Pittsburgh, PA
Baltimore, MD
San Francisco
New York City
North Central
South Florida
Bay Area, CA
Portland, OR
Houston, TX
Phoenix, AZ
Boston, MA
Seattle, WA
Atlanta, GA
Chicago, IL
Denver, CO
Detroit, MI
Austin, TX
Central
Ohio
PROPERTY TYPE
CBD Office 7.00% 6.00% 5.25% 6.75% 4.75% 5.25% 5.00% 5.50% 7.50% 6.50% 5.00% 7.50% 5.00% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 4.50% 7.25% 6.25% 7.00% 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 4.75% 5.75% 8.00%
Suburban Office 6.50% 7.00% 5.75% 7.25% 6.50% 5.50% 6.50% 6.25% 8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 6.50% 5.25% 7.50% 7.00% 7.25% 6.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.25% 7.25% 5.50% 6.00% 5.25% 6.50% 8.00%
Power Centers 6.50% 7.00% 6.25% 6.00% 6.75% 7.00% 6.00% 6.50% 6.75% 7.50% 6.75% 6.50% 5.50% 7.50% 8.00% 6.25% 5.00% 6.25% 8.00% 7.75% 6.30% 5.00% 6.50% 6.50% 7.50%
Lifestyle Centers 6.50% 6.50% 5.75% 7.00% 6.50% 6.25% 6.75% 6.50% 6.75% 5.50% 7.50% 8.00% 7.00% 6.50% 8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 6.40% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 7.50%
Grocery Anchor Retail 6.50% 6.25% 5.50% 6.00% 6.00% 5.25% 6.00% 5.50% 6.50% 6.50% 7.00% 5.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 6.50% 6.00% 6.00% 7.25% 6.40% 5.00% 5.00% 5.75% 6.50%
Unanchored Strip 7.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 7.50% 7.25% 6.50% 6.00% 7.25% 6.50% 7.00% 6.50% 5.50% 8.00% 8.00% 7.50% 5.50% 7.50% 7.50% 6.50% 7.25% 6.50% 5.00% 6.00% 6.50% 8.00%
Single Tenant - Drug Store 5.50% 6.00% 6.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.50% 5.50% 6.00% 5.50% 6.25% 4.50% 4.50% 6.00% 5.75% 5.00% 4.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.50% 6.00% 5.00% 5.00% 6.00% 5.00% 6.00%
REGIONAL RATES
Single Tenant - Bank Branch 6.00% 6.75% 7.00% 5.50% 5.00% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.00% 6.50% 5.25% 6.00% 4.50% 6.50% 7.50% 5.25% 4.50% 6.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.50% 5.50% 5.00% 5.75% 6.50%
Single Tenant - Dollar Stores 6.00% 6.00% 7.50% 6.00% 6.25% 6.25% 6.50% 6.75% 6.50% 6.75% 6.00% 4.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.00% 4.50% 6.50% 5.00% 6.50% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.50%
CBD Multifamily 5.50% 4.25% 4.75% 5.00% 4.25% 4.50% 4.25% 4.25% 5.75% 4.00% 4.00% 5.00% 4.25% 5.50% 4.50% 4.50% 3.75% 5.25% 4.75% 4.50% 5.25% 4.50% 3.50% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00%
Suburban Multifamily 5.50% 5.00% 5.25% 5.00% 5.00% 5.25% 4.50% 4.75% 6.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.25% 6.00% 5.00% 4.75% 4.50% 5.50% 4.75% 4.50% 5.50% 4.75% 4.25% 4.25% 5.25% 5.75%
Student Housing (Tier 1/Tier 2) 6.00% 6.00% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 6.00% 5.00% 5.50% 4.75% 5.50% 5.00% 6.00%
Warehouse/Logistics 6.00% 4.50% 5.25% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.50% 6.75% 5.50% 5.25% 4.00% 4.50% 5.50% 5.50% 4.00% 5.00% 5.75% 5.00% 5.00% 6.50% 6.00% 4.00% 4.50% 4.20% 6.00%
R&D/Flex 6.50% 6.00% 7.50% 6.50% 6.00% 6.50% 6.50% 7.75% 6.50% 8.00% 4.00% 4.50% 7.00% 7.25% 6.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.00% 7.25% 6.25% 5.00% 5.00% 5.25% 8.00%
General Industrial 7.00% 6.00% 6.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.50% 5.50% 6.00% 7.00% 7.00% 6.00% 4.00% 4.50% 6.50% 7.00% 4.50% 5.00% 7.50% 6.00% 7.25% 6.25% 5.00% 5.00% 4.50% 7.50%
Self Storage 5.60% 6.50% 5.50% 5.75% 5.75% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00% 5.75% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 6.00% 6.00% 5.25% 4.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00% 6.00% 5.00% 5.50% 5.50% 6.00%
Golf-Semi-Private 9.50%
Golf-Public 9.75%
Golf-Executive 10.25%
CCRC 8.00%
Source: These rates were compiled and submitted by NKF V&A Market Leaders and Specialty Directors based on current market activity including recent sales and discussions with market participants and Note: The above indicators are reflective of typical investment parameters for each property type, which can vary depending upon specific property, financial and submarket characteristics. Please contact regional offices for more information.
service professionals. Note: Additional information for Class B and other investment metrics is available by contacting your local V&A office, or Amy Collier at amy.collier@ngkf.com.
HOSPITALITY,
GAMING & LEISURE
BY BRYAN YOUNGE, MAI, ASA, FRICS
Executive Vice President | Valuation & Advisory
Specialty Practice Leader - Hospitality, Gaming & Leisure
ABOUT HOSPITALITY, GAMING & LEISURE Hotel - Resort Class A 7.00% 9.50% 50 3.25% 3.00% 9.0 20.00%
Source: These rates were compiled and submitted by NKF V&A Market Leaders and Specialty Directors based on current market activity including recent sales and discussions
with market participants and service professionals.
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MARINAS 3Q2019
NATIONAL RATES
Going-In
Cap Rate
Discount
Rate
Reversion Rate
(bps over Going
Market Rent
Growth
Expense
Growth
Marketing
Time
Liquidation
Value %
COMPARISON - MARINA In Cap) Rate Rate (Months) Discount
ABOUT MARINAS
BY BRYAN YOUNGE, MAI, ASA, FRICS Marinas with Boating Clubs
Newmark Knight Frank Valuation & Advisory’s (V&A)
Executive Vice President | Valuation & Advisory (Coastal) Class A
9.00% 11.00% 50 4.00% 3.00% 6.0 25.00%
Specialty Practice Leader - Hospitality, Gaming & Leisure Hospitality, Gaming & Leisure team has a passion for
mixed-use waterfront assets. These complex properties Marinas with Boating Clubs
9.50% 11.50% 50 4.00% 3.00% 6.0 25.00%
(Coastal) Class B
typically include marinas; office buildings; retail components;
restaurants, bars and lounges; hotels; parking facilities; and/ Marinas with Boating Clubs (In-
9.25% 11.25% 50 4.00% 3.00% 9.0 30.00%
The marinas industry has steadily improved in the past few land) Class A
or vacant expansion land.
years in terms of revenue growth and profit. Manufacturing Marinas with Boating Clubs (In-
In today’s market, buyers think in terms of income 9.75% 11.75% 50 4.00% 3.00% 9.0 30.00%
has increased, as consumers have enjoyed better discretionary land) Class B
spending metrics. Along with declining fuel prices, these metrics optimization through efficient operations and/or
Marinas without Boating Clubs
redevelopment plays. Individual marinas are being added to 11.50% 13.50% 50 3.75% 3.00% 9.0 40.00%
have created positive conditions for the industry. Although (Coastal) Class A
marinas are traditionally constructed to accommodate seasonal existing portfolios to create critical mass and assemblage
Marinas without Boating Clubs
value. Each property use has its own risk and reward drivers. 12.00% 14.00% 50 3.75% 3.00% 9.0 40.00%
and multi-seasonal users, the development of ancillary amenities (Coastal) Class B
at the facilities has been made possible by the improved Therefore, each profit center must be carefully analyzed in
Marinas without Boating Clubs
11.75% 13.75% 50 3.75% 3.00% 9.0 40.00%
economics of late. As such, income from a larger variety of order to build a blended cap rate. (Inland) Class A
departments, namely food and beverage, fuel and merchandise, For lenders, Newmark Knight Frank V&A brings confidence Marinas without Boating Clubs
12.25% 14.25% 50 3.75% 3.00% 9.0 40.00%
has contributed to value enhancement. IBIS World estimates to the lending process. Our years of experience, vast data (Inland) Class B
that industry revenue posted annualized improvement of 1.0% on bank and personal relationships with many of the most
Yacht Basins (Coastal) Class A 8.75% 10.75% 50 4.00% 3.00% 6.0 25.00%
average over the past five years, exceeding $5.2 billion. active marina players in the market allow us to analyze each
transaction from a balanced perspective. Yacht Basins (Coastal) Class B 9.25% 11.25% 50 4.00% 3.00% 6.0 25.00%
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GOLF COURSES
BY BRYAN YOUNGE, MAI, ASA, FRICS
Executive Vice President | Valuation & Advisory
Specialty Practice Leader - Hospitality, Gaming & Leisure
3Q2019 Going-In Discount Reversion Rate Market Rent Expense Marketing Liquidation
NATIONAL RATES Cap Rate Rate (bps over Going Growth Growth Time Value %
COMPARISON - GOLF In Cap) Rate Rate (Months) Discount
ABOUT GOLF COURSES Golf-Private Equity Class B 10.00% 12.00% 25 1.00% 3.00% 9.0 25.00%
Newmark Knight Frank Valuation & Advisory’s Hospitality,
Gaming & Leisure group includes appraisal and consulting Golf-Private Non-Equity Class A 9.25% 11.25% 50 0.50% 3.00% 9.0 30.00%
professionals that specialize in the valuation of golf course
properties throughout the United States. Our extensive
Golf-Private Non-Equity Class B 10.25% 12.25% 50 0.50% 3.00% 9.0 30.00%
experience includes appraisals, consultations, reviews and
litigation support for various types of public, private, semi-
Golf-Semi-Private Class A 9.50% 11.50% 50 0.50% 2.50% 6.0 30.00%
private, municipal and resort golf courses and clubs.
The golf industry is constantly changing, and our
Golf-Semi-Private Class B 10.50% 12.50% 50 0.50% 2.50% 6.0 30.00%
professionals have the skill and knowledge to produce
reliable results for our clients. With our resources, experience
and focus on exceptional service delivery, each golf property Golf-Public Class A 9.75% 11.75% 50 0.00% 2.25% 6.0 40.00%
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INDUSTRIAL/ 3Q2019
REGIONAL RATES COMPARISON
Going-In
Cap Rate
Discount
Rate
Reversion Rate
(bps over Going
Market Rent
Growth Rate
Expense
Growth
Marketing
Time
Liquidation
Value %
LOGISTICS - INDUSTRIAL/LOGISTICS In Cap) Rate (Months) Discount
Central
BY ROB VODINELIC, MAI, MRICS
Senior Managing Director | Market Leader–OH/IN/KY Warehouse/Logistics Class A 5.59% 6.56% 54 3.07% 2.79% 6.0 20.83%
is robust, as space under construction has reached a cyclical high. bolsters the expertise of our professionals
East
Vacancy rates have remained steady through 3Q 2019, although with insight from across the NKF platform.
with nearly 290 million square feet under construction nationwide, With our unsurpassed, proprietary market Warehouse/Logistics Class A 5.10% 6.25% 44 2.93% 2.83% 5.2 18.13%
the imminent new deliveries could lead to an uptick in vacancies knowledge, we provide clients with optimal
into the early part of 2020. solutions for managing their industrial and Warehouse/Logistics Class B 5.93% 7.05% 44 2.93% 2.83% 5.2 18.13%
logistics properties.
Rental rates have continued their steady increase, as several major R&D/Flex Class A 6.80% 8.03% 50 2.85% 2.78% 6.2 20.56%
markets are experiencing double-digit rent growth, and total year- Newmark Knight Frank V&A’s Industrial/
over-year industrial returns remain strong. Although some economic Logistics team provides solutions for every type R&D/Flex Class B 7.53% 8.63% 50 2.85% 2.78% 6.2 20.56%
indicators have recently shown a slight contraction, the full impact of industrial owner—from traditional investors,
of any tariff impositions are uncertain. such as local developers and owner/operators, General Industrial Class A 6.19% 7.47% 50 2.86% 2.81% 5.8 20.63%
National
Source: These rates were compiled and submitted by NKF V&A Market Leaders and Specialty Directors based on current market activity including recent sales and discussions
with market participants and service professionals.
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MULTIFAMILY 3Q2019
REGIONAL RATES
Going-In
Cap Rate
Discount
Rate
Reversion Rate
(bps over Going
Market Rent
Growth Rate
Expense
Growth
Marketing
Time
Liquidation
Value %
COMPARISON - MULTIFAMILY In Cap) Rate (Months) Discount
RAYMOND HIGGINS
Senior Managing Director | Valuation & Advisory Central
Specialty Practice Leader – Multifamily
CBD Multifamily Class A 4.81% 6.04% 44 2.71% 2.79% 5.0 20.83%
Multifamily sales transactions accounted for the highest sales volume out of the Suburban Multifamily Class A 5.38% 6.54% 44 2.71% 2.71% 5.0 20.00%
major property types over the past 12 months. Most of the sale transactions occurred
Suburban Multifamily Class B 6.09% 7.21% 44 2.71% 2.71% 5.0 20.00%
in New York, Los Angeles and Atlanta. Construction activity is robust in Dallas, New
York, Seattle, Washington DC, Los Angeles, Chicago and Atlanta with new inventories Student Housing (Tier 1/Tier 2)
5.61% 6.75% 47 2.50% 2.71% 5.2 24.17%
Class A
at 10,000 units or higher in each of these markets. Charlotte and Nashville have
Student Housing (Tier 1/Tier 2)
expanded inventory of 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively. Most new construction consists 6.46% 7.67% 47 2.50% 2.71% 5.2 24.17%
Class B
of Class A luxury units with the highest rents.
East
Market rent continues to increase with the nation’s average effective rent growth of
3.2%. The top markets for rent increases were Las Vegas with 7.8%, Phoenix with CBD Multifamily Class A 4.75% 6.18% 39 2.73% 2.84% 4.8 16.88%
7.5% and Atlanta with 4.8%. New York City leads the nation in highest asking rents
followed by Los Angeles. CBD Multifamily Class B 5.43% 7.00% 39 2.73% 2.84% 4.8 16.88%
Strong demographics and employment growth have fueled demand for multifamily. Suburban Multifamily Class A 5.10% 6.69% 37 2.80% 2.83% 4.8 16.25%
Millennials continue to drive the demand for multifamily units in the urban cores. One
concern on the horizon is the possibility of more municipalities enacting rent controls. Suburban Multifamily Class B 5.75% 7.61% 37 2.80% 2.83% 4.8 16.25%
Capitalization rates are increasing in markets with rent controls and some investors Student Housing (Tier 1/Tier 2)
5.67% 7.67% 42 2.75% 2.75% 4.7 18.33%
are moving to markets without rent controls or to other property types. Overall, the Class A
multifamily market remains strong but lower property values in the rent control Student Housing (Tier 1/Tier 2)
6.42% 8.33% 42 2.75% 2.75% 4.7 18.33%
markets may impact the national multifamily market in the future. Class B
West
Source: These rates were compiled and submitted by NKF V&A Market Leaders and Specialty Directors based on current market activity including recent sales and discussions
with market participants and service professionals.
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OFFICE 3Q2019
REGIONAL RATES
Going-In
Cap Rate
Discount
Rate
Reversion Rate
(bps over Going
Market Rent
Growth Rate
Expense
Growth
Marketing
Time
Liquidation
Value %
DOUGLAS LARSON COMPARISON - OFFICE In Cap) Rate (Months) Discount
Executive Vice President | Valuation & Advisory
Central
Manhattan remains an attractive option for international capital. Although CBD Office Class A 5.54% 6.79% 45 3.00% 3.00% 5.2 20.00%
mainland China’s exit has caused Asia Pacific volume to drop, European
groups are still drawn to Manhattan. Middle Eastern funds, who hadn’t CBD Office Class B 6.14% 7.79% 45 3.00% 3.00% 5.2 20.00%
also the first to recover from market corrections, with New York City being
CBD Office Class B 6.84% 8.05% 47 2.85% 2.81% 6.4 23.10%
the prime example of this trend. Nearly $7 billion in trophy volume across
eight deals is pending or has closed in 2019 to date. Google’s purchase of Suburban Office Class A 6.74% 7.87% 48 2.79% 2.81% 6.2 23.18%
the Milk Studios marked its third major acquisition (after 111 8th Avenue
and Chelsea Market) in New York City, and it has now spent a total of $4.6 Suburban Office Class B 7.54% 8.82% 48 2.79% 2.81% 6.2 23.18%
billion in the city. Overall pricing in Manhattan has increased year over year.
Source: These rates were compiled and submitted by NKF V&A Market Leaders and Specialty Directors based on current market activity including recent sales and discussions
with market participants and service professionals.
ABOUT OFFICE
Newmark Knight Frank Valuation & Advisory’s Office practice is the premier appraisal group focused on executing valuation and consulting
services for office owners, investors, developers and financial institutions nationwide and across the globe. We offer the strategic
expertise—consulting, analysis and resources—clients need in order to assign value and make informed decisions that enhance financial
outcomes and corporate performance, for purposes of acquisition, disposition, potential use, retention, redevelopment, mortgage, income
tax, financing, certiorari and litigation.
Our experts possess an average of more than 25 years of valuation experience in major CBD markets. Expansive geographic coverage
enables us to support clients with individual office assets as well as with diverse office portfolios dispersed throughout the country.
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RETAIL/ 3Q2019
REGIONAL RATES COMPARISON
Going-In
Cap Rate
Discount
Rate
Reversion Rate
(bps over Going
Market Rent
Growth Rate
Expense
Growth
Marketing
Time
Liquidation
Value %
REGIONAL MALLS - RETAIL SHOPPING CENTERS In Cap) Rate (Months) Discount
Central
Source: These rates were compiled and submitted by NKF V&A Market Leaders and Specialty Directors based on current market activity including recent sales and discussions with market participants and service professionals.
BY JOHN MACKRIS, MAI, MRICS Power Center Class A 7.03% 8.16% 57 2.21% 2.64% 8.4 26.67%
Senior Managing Director | Valuation & Advisory
Specialty Practice Leader – Retail/Regional Malls Power Center Class B 7.97% 9.00% 57 2.21% 2.64% 8.4 26.67%
Grocery Anchor Strip Class A 6.21% 7.21% 60 2.50% 2.50% 5.3 19.00%
Although core economic factors remain strong, the U.S.-China trade Grocery Anchor Strip Class B 7.04% 8.08% 60 2.50% 2.50% 5.3 19.00%
war has elevated concerns over the pricing of retail goods, resulting
Unanchored Strip Class A 7.25% 8.22% 57 2.36% 2.64% 7.8 23.33%
in a slight uptick in capitalization and discount rates to account for
the perceived risk. However, these investor concerns are anticipated Unanchored Strip Class B 8.13% 9.16% 57 2.36% 2.64% 7.8 23.33%
centers are bringing in pop-ups and experiential elements with major Grocery Anchor Strip Class A 6.11% 7.33% 44 2.63% 2.78% 6.1 20.00%
infusions of capital. Alternatively, Class C and Class D centers are
Grocery Anchor Strip Class B 7.30% 8.33% 44 2.63% 2.78% 6.1 20.00%
either shuttering or reinventing themselves into a variety of mixed-
use variants, with uses as diverse as entertainment, self-storage, Unanchored Strip Class A 7.07% 8.30% 56 2.60% 2.70% 7.4 27.22%
residential, office and medical, to name just a few. Another recent
Unanchored Strip Class B 7.98% 9.15% 56 2.60% 2.70% 7.4 27.22%
trend in retail has been a steep discounting of product pricing,
although this trend may change soon, as grocery delivery services West
become more widespread. Relative to other real estate sectors, retail Power Center Class A 6.33% 7.43% 50 3.14% 3.14% 5.6 21.43%
property pricing has been generally flat, as investors still foresee
Power Center Class B 7.07% 8.29% 50 3.14% 3.14% 5.6 21.43%
more retail closures to come, especially among department and big
box stores, as the retail sector moves to right-size itself. Lifestyle Center Class A 6.07% 7.33% 58 3.17% 3.17% 5.5 20.83%
Grocery Anchor Strip Class A 5.70% 7.04% 50 3.14% 3.14% 6.2 20.71%
Grocery Anchor Strip Class B 6.75% 8.14% 50 3.14% 3.14% 6.2 20.71%
National
Grocery Anchor Strip Class A 6.02% 7.21% 50 2.76% 2.83% 6.0 20.00%
Grocery Anchor Strip Class B 7.07% 8.21% 50 2.76% 2.83% 6.0 20.00%
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3Q2019 Going-In Discount Reversion Rate Market Rent Expense Marketing Liquidation
NATIONAL RATES Cap Rate Rate (bps over Going Growth Rate Growth Time Value %
COMPARISON - RETAIL In Cap) Rate (Months) Discount
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SENIORS 3Q2019
NATIONAL RATES COMPARISON
Going-In
Cap Rate
Discount
Rate
Reversion Rate
(bps over Going
Market Rent
Growth Rate
Expense
Growth
Marketing
Time
Liquidation
Value %
HOUSING ABOUT HEALTHCARE & SENIORS HOUSING
- SENIORS HOUSING In Cap) Rate (Months) Discount
Newmark Knight Frank Valuation & Advisory’s Healthcare 55+ Age Restricted Apartments
4.75% 7.00% 50 3.00% 3.00% 6.0 20.00%
Class A
BY NORM LEZOTTE, MAI & Seniors Housing practice is a premier group of real
55+ Age Restricted Apartments
Senior Managing Director | Valuation & Advisory estate professionals focused on the unique requirements Class B
5.50% 7.75% 50 3.00% 3.00% 6.0 20.00%
Specialty Practice Leader – Healthcare & Seniors Housing and objectives of healthcare providers and senior housing
Independent Living Class A 6.80% 10.00% 50 3.00% 3.00% 6.0 30.00%
operators. Utilizing extensive interviews and market
observations, we provide expert advice to investors,
Independent Living Class B 7.40% 10.75% 50 3.00% 3.00% 6.0 30.00%
property owners and operators on assets ranging from
Over the last two quarters of this year, the development pipeline large, 300-bed hospitals and entrance fee CCRC’s to small Assisted Living/Dementia Care
7.00% 10.00% 50 3.00% 3.00% 6.0 30.00%
has begun to slow compared with the same time last year. Senior Class A
clinics and free-standing senior housing facilities. Our
housing lenders are clearly scaling back on new construction Assisted Living/Dementia Care
specialized insight enables our team to align the business 7.75% 11.00% 50 3.00% 3.00% 6.0 30.00%
Class B
financing in this sector. This change is a positive for the industry, operations and real estate functions of a healthcare or
as several submarkets across the country are at or near saturation. senior living facility in order to deliver maximum value to Skilled Nursing Class A 12.50% 15.00% 50 3.00% 3.00% 8.0 40.00%
Although development may slow in the coming months, the amount investors and property owners.
of private equity chasing deals in the space continues to grow at Skilled Nursing Class B 13.50% 16.00% 50 3.00% 3.00% 8.0 40.00%
Assignments have included valuations, market and
a record pace. The ever-increasing demand for investment grade
feasibility studies, and fair market rent surveys for Stark CCRC Class A 8.00% 11.00% 50 3.00% 3.00% 6.0 30.00%
product is expected to keep capitalization rates near the current
Law compliance. We provide appraisal services to lenders,
levels for the foreseeable future, regardless of some oversupply in CCRC Class B 9.00% 12.50% 50 3.00% 3.00% 6.0 30.00%
hospital and senior housing operators, healthcare REITs
several markets.
and private equity firms.
Source: These rates were compiled and submitted by NKF V&A Market Leaders and Specialty Directors based on current market activity including recent sales and discussions
with market participants and service professionals.
NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK VALUATION & ADVISORY: 2019 MARKET SURVEY | 22 NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK VALUATION & ADVISORY: 2019 MARKET SURVEY | 23
Appetite for self storage remains historically
SELF high and more “money” is chasing storage
STORAGE now than at any other time in history.
BY STEVE JOHNSON, MAI
Executive Vice President | Valuation & Advisory 3Q2019 Going-In Cap Discount Rate Reversion Market Rent Expense Marketing
Specialty Practice Co-Leader – Self Storage REGIONAL RATES COMPARISON Rate Rate (bps over Growth Rate Growth Rate Time (Months)
- SELF STORAGE Going In Cap)
Central
During the third quarter of 2018, the world was headed toward higher
Self Storage Class A 6.28% 9.13% 54 2.93% 2.79% 5.4
interest rates. Logically, this would have had at least some upward
impact on rates of return, as cost of capital was headed upward. Self Storage Class B 6.72% 9.58% 54 2.93% 2.79% 5.4
Then interest rates reversed downward through the current period,
and we are now back in the territory of historical lows. Speaking East
with market participants, it is evident that the current environment is
continuing to fuel the strong appetite for self storage asset Self Storage Class A 5.64% 8.48% 46 2.86% 2.88% 5.6
NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK VALUATION & ADVISORY: 2019 MARKET SURVEY | 24 NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK VALUATION & ADVISORY: 2019 MARKET SURVEY | 25
MERGER &
ACQUISITION ACTIVITY
BY JOHN CORBETT, MAI, ASA, FRICS
Senior Managing Director | Valuation & Advisory
Specialty Practice Leader – Financial Reporting
NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK VALUATION & ADVISORY: 2019 MARKET SURVEY | 26 NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK VALUATION & ADVISORY: 2019 MARKET SURVEY | 27
VALUATION & ADVISORY LEADERSHIP MARKET LEADERS BY REGION
WEST COAST
John Busi Helene Jacobson Steve DuPlantis
President Executive Managing Director Executive Managing Director Stan Wolf Robby Perrino Jim Myers Berick Treidler
T: 212.372.2326 U.S. Co-Lead U.S. Co-Lead Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Executive Vice President Senior Managing Director
M: 631.827.3342 T: 212.372.2269 T: 713.599.5103 Pacific Northwest, AK, Northern CA Southern CA, HI Co-Leader Southern CA, HI Co-Leader
john.busi@ngkf.com M: 973.714.0366 M: 713.703.8038 WA, OR T: 408.987.4192 T: 213.596.2046 T: 213.596.2236
helene.jacobson@ngkf.com steve.duplantis@ngkf.com T: 206.462.2520 M: 408.601.7475 M: 213.220.6871 berick.treidler@ngkf.com
M: 972.672.8857 robby.perrino@ngkf.com jim.myers@ngkf.com
Liam Brunner Carlos Acevedo Joana Silva stan.wolf@ngkf.com
Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director
Canada Mexico Brazil
M: 403.680.4884 T: +52 55 5980.2000 ext. 5179 T: +55 11 2737.3130 ROCKY MOUNTAIN/SOUTHWEST SOUTH/CENTRAL
liam.brunner@ngkf.com carlos.acevedo@ngkf.com.mx M: +55 11 9 9885.8584
joana.silva@newmarkgrubb.com.br Brad Weiman Gavin McPhie Stephen Cosby Eric Finley David Thibodeaux
Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director
CO, ID, MT, UT, WY Southwest, AZ, NM, NV AR, OK TX, LA Co-Leader TX, LA Co-Leader
Scott Schafer Stephen Cosby Jason Hutchins Amy Collier
T: 303.300.1200 T: 602.952.3889 T: 479.717.7961 T: 713.490.9954 T: 512.676.5538
Executive Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director
M: 303.877.6766 M: 480.735.8124 M: 479.841.4140 M: 713.204.7190 david.thibodeaux@ngkf.com
Head of Strategy Director of Quality Control National Technology Leader Marketing & Strategic Accounts - Americas
brad.weiman@ngkf.com gavin.mcphie@ngkf.com steve.cosby@ngkf.com eric.finley@ngkf.com
T: 716.352.7496 T: 479.717.7961 T: 713.599.5137 T: 713.300.7966
scott.schafer@ngkf.com M: 479.841.4140 jason.hutchins@ngkf.com M: 832.712.6208
steve.cosby@ngkf.com amy.collier@ngkf.com
MIDWEST
Michelle Koeller John Mackris Rob Vodinelic Tony Roberts
Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director
VALUATION & ADVISORY BUSINESS LINES MN, IA, WI, ND, SD, NE IL, KS, MO OH, IN, KY MI
T: 612.440.0065 T: 312.224.3206 T: 614.883.1242 T: 248.871.2284
Scott Schafer John Corbett Gil Licudine M: 651.283.9614 M: 773.294.2319 M: 614.288.6809 M: 248.228.4895
Executive Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director michelle.koeller@ngkf.com john.mackris@ngkf.com rob.vodinelic@ngkf.com tony.roberts@ngkf.com
Alternative Valuation Services Financial Reporting Property Tax
T: 716.352.7496 T: 215.587.6004 T: 312.224.3263
scott.schafer@ngkf.com M: 609.617.9234 M: 312.859.0166
NORTHEAST
john.corbett@ngkf.com gil.licudine@ngkf.com
David Cary Jr. Raymond Cirz Matt Krauser Matt Victor Maggie Argyros
Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director
SPECIALTY PRACTICE LEADERS MA, ME, NH, RI, VT NY Metropolitan Area NY Metropolitan Area Tri-State Suburban Area NYC
T: 617.532.7905 T: 212.372.2472 T: 973.240.6929 T: 914.443.2969 T: 212.372.2155
Miles Loo, Jr. Norm LeZotte Bryan Younge Scott Allen M: 617.877.1254 M: 973.713.5209 M: 973.216.6160 matt.victor@ngkf.com maggie.argyros@ngkf.com
Executive Vice President Senior Managing Director Executive Vice President Executive Vice President david.cary@ngkf.com raymond.cirz@ngkf.com matt.krauser@ngkf.com
Data Centers & Mission Critical Healthcare & Seniors Housing Hospitality, Gaming & Leisure HUD Multifamily
T: 213.596.2206 T: 404.965.6285 T: 312.224.3208 T 716.523.0668
M: 310.383.6518 M: 404.915.0843 M: 773.263.4544 scott.allen@ngkf.com MID ATLANTIC
miles.loo@ngkf.com norm.lezotte@ngkf.com bryan.younge@ngkf.com
Paul Griffith Joseph Pasquarella Patrick Kerr
Rob Vodinelic Raymond Higgins John Mackris Steve Johnson Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director
Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Executive Vice President West PA, WV East PA, DE DC, MD, VA
Industrial/Logistics Multifamily Retail/Regional Malls Self Storage Co-Leader T: 724.742.3324 T: 215.587.6001 T: 202.774.9040
T: 614.883.1242 T: 470.481.0740 T: 312.224.3206 T: 626.204.3755 paul.griffith@ngkf.com M: 215.817.2766 pat.kerr@ngkf.com
M: 614.288.6809 M: 770.605.2092 M: 773.294.2319 steve.johnson@ngkf.com joseph.pasquarella@ngkf.com
rob.vodinelic@ngkf.com raymond.higgins@ngkf.com john.mackris@ngkf.com
SOUTHEAST
Chris Sonne John Vaughan
Executive Vice President Senior Vice President Raymond Higgins Greg Becker Norm LeZotte
Self Storage Co-Leader Vineyards & Wineries Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director Senior Managing Director
T: 714.975.2302 T: 707.583.8405 Southeast, AL, GA, MS, NC, FL, Caribbean Co-Leader FL, Caribbean Co-Leader
chris.sonne@ngkf.com M: 808.797.0148 SC, TN T: 561.212.5165 T: 404.965.6285
john.vaughan@ngkf.com T: 470.481.0740 greg.becker@ngkf.com M: 404.915.0843
M: 770.605.2092 norm.lezotte@ngkf.com
raymond.higgins@ngkf.com
NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK VALUATION & ADVISORY: 2019 MARKET SURVEY | 28 NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK VALUATION & ADVISORY: 2019 MARKET SURVEY | 29
AN INTEGRATED
REAL ESTATE
PLATFORM
Newmark Knight Frank provides invaluable
access to a complete range of services across
our global platform. Our Valuation & Advisory
practice is supported by Newmark Knight
Frank’s industry-leading offerings including
research, leasing, corporate advisory services,
capital markets, consulting, project and
development management, and property and
corporate facilities management services–
allowing us to add significant value for clients
that goes beyond mere reporting.
NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK VALUATION & ADVISORY: 2019 MARKET SURVEY | 30 NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK VALUATION & ADVISORY: 2019 MARKET SURVEY | 31
John Busi Helene Jacobson Steve DuPlantis
President Executive Managing Director Executive Managing Director
Valuation & Advisory U.S. Valuation & Advisory Co-Lead U.S. Valuation & Advisory Co-Lead
New York New York Houston
T: 212.372.2326 T: 212.372.2269 T: 713.599.5103
M: 631.827.3342 M: 973.714.0366 M: 713.703.8038
john.busi@ngkf.com helene.jacobson@ngkf.com steve.duplantis@ngkf.com
ngkf.com/valuation