Energía eólica

Phase 3 - Identify and evaluate a wind energy project in the world

Teacher: Cesar Augusto Guarín

Corolina Obando. Code: 37087644

Stephanie Ortiz. Code: 1098701466
Laura Marcela Parra. Code:
Arlyn Carolina Rozo González. Code: 52235306
Andres Felipe Sanchez. Code:

Group : 358052_2

Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia UNAD

Program Environmental Engineering
CEAD José Acevedo y Gómez Bogotá
2019
 The Evaluation of eolic energy projects in Colombia under the real option approach.

Thanks to the availability of natural resources available in Colombia, there is

availability of electricity generation potential in different energy production
alternatives. However, wind generation has been incipient and the reason seems
to be the great uncertainties that arise, mainly due to the behavior of the winds.
However, the development of this source is important, since it complements the
Summary of the demand. In order to evaluate this project, it is necessary to explore different
article valuation methodologies as they are based in discounted cash flows, to then
study the approach of real options, to estimate an extended value including the
real option of expansion. To estimate the volatility, fundamental parameter of the
valuation of the real option, the processes that follow the variables with high
incidence in it are simulated, such as the price of energy and winds. Wind energy
projects are not viable using traditional valuation methods due to uncertainties,
but with the above mentioned methods.
This article shows that projects in wind generation are susceptible to valuation
Purpose of the including real options, because it is possible to execute them in stages and to
article the high volatility that characterizes the winds and energy prices. In this case, a
real expansion option is identified that, when taken into account, makes the
project that initially presents a vpn without negative flexibility viable.
Main
characteristics  Geographic location Jepirachi Guajira Colombia
of the wind  Wind speed isn’ t referenced
project  Amount of energy produced in megawatts:
 The development is quite incipient, with an installed capacity of just 19.5
MW to 100 MW in La Guajira
Advantages and Advantages:
disadvantages It is friendly with the environment
Complements energy demand in dry periods
Exemptions and tax discounts
Disadvantages:
Lack of financial viability
High uncertainty regarding the behavior of the wind
Positive and The generation of wind energy does not produce toxic gases or contribute to the
negative greenhouse effect; It also does not generate hazardous by-products and is
impacts of the alternative to fossil fuels, however, this has negative impacts on the
project environment, such as the death of birds and bats due to collision with wind
turbines, given that the Istmo of Tehuantepec is one of the most important
migratory bird corridors. Of the world, and given the number of wind turbines
installed, the risk of collision is high. Aditionally, the community is dissatisfied
because it states that they have not benefited from the project
Technical When assessing wind energy projects with the real options approach, the higher
considerations value obtained compared to the traditional vpn method without flexibility can be
(comments from concluded that these projects are financially viable. Previous analyzes that
the work team) conclude otherwise have not taken into consideration the extended value of the
project proposed by financial theory. While the suggested developments are
related to the remuneration for reliability of the wind energy, this work shows that
wind generation projects are already viable financially in Colombia given the
attractive future possibilities of expansion of these investments
 Preliminary wind speed study in San Julian in reference to wind power generation

In the present work, a preliminary description of the characteristics of wind speed

was made at the San Julián (Argentina) weather station. A process of quality
control of a series of data was carried out, speed winds at 40 m, 50 m and 60 m
were studied. The method used to "Measure-Correlate-Predict" (MCP) to know
the degree of directional correlation between the data of the tower and the
Summary of the surface. The results appeared the difficulty of doing any study of the variability
article of the wind, which are sensitive in the length, type and quality of the instruments,
as well as the changes of location and height of the instruments.
Evaluate changes in wind potential in the region, San Julián Aero, province of
Purpose of the Santa Cruz, Argentina.
article
Main
characteristics Geographic location: San Julián Aero, province of Santa Cruz, Argentina.
of the wind Wind speed :
project We worked with the series of hourly data wind speed and direction at 10 m
from the San Julian Aero weather station (49o19'S; 67o50'O, 2 masl)
The minimum speed recorded by the sensor is 1 ms-1 and, although the
maximum speed that can register the sensor is 70 ms-1,tend to show greater
measurement errors at from speeds higher than 50 ms
Advantages and Disadvantages: the difficulty of doing any study of wind variability or the study
disadvantages of extreme values with series that are sensitive to the length of the record, the
type and quality of the instrument, and also changes in location and height of the
instrument and the related rights.
Advantages: Describe the daily and annual cycle of each period, as The
extreme rights at speeds characteristics of wind turbine.
Positive and Positive: prove that it would be possible to assume, in a first approximation,
negative that the daily average of the wind speed to 60 m, 50 m and 40 m and which
impacts of the has similar variabilities than that of the wind speed measured at 10 m in the
project nearby surface weather station San Julián Aero
Negative : for the short lengths of the series measured in towers, it is only
possible conduct studies with statistical methodologies simple about the
variability of the speed of wind and the results presented should be considered
with caution.
Technical
considerations This work is a clear example of the importance of the maintenance and proper
(comments from functioning of the instruments and the series was drastically reduced by being
the work team) usable only since 1998, at which time and Until 2010 there are short periods
that can not be used, due to repairs, model changes and type of instruments
the series turned out not to be homogeneous The results of this work manifest.
the difficulty of doing any study of Wind variability and study of values ends
with short series as they are sensitive to the length of the record, to the type
and quality of the instrumental and in addition to the changes of location and
height of the instrument and to nearby obstacles
 SELECTED ARTICLE
Wind energy in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec: development, actors and social opposition.

The growing incorporation of renewable sources of energy in energy

systems is due to motives, both for energy diversification and
security, as well as to combat climate change, create jobs, improve
access to energy and boost rural development. Wind power stands
out for its remarkable development in recent years. 2006-2011 the
global wind power capacity grew at an average annual rate of 26%,
reaching the last of those years installed 238 gw, that is, 61% of the
global generation capacity based on FRE. The topographic
characteristics of the Isthmus de Tehuantepec are equally favorable
for the installation of wind power plants. All this distinguishes it as
one of the most attractive sites in the world for wind exploitation on
Summary of the article a commercial scale. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory of
the United States estimates the eolo-energetic potential in Oaxaca
over an area greater than 8,800 km2 in more than 44,000 mw. In
2012, the Energy Regulatory Commission had granted 141 permits
for the installation of 4 605 mw electric based on FRE; of these, 3
410 mw corresponded to wind projects, of which 1 128 mw were
already in operation. The main modalities in which individuals
request to exploit the wind resource are self-supply and independent
energy production. The model of wind exploitation prevailing in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec favors the development companies, limiting
the benefits for the local communities and increasing the social
rejection of the projects.
Purpose of the article The objective of this article was to analyze the development of the
wind farm in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, identify its main actors,
and study the most relevant characteristics of this process in order
to elucidate the causes of the growing social opposition to wind
projects in that region

Main characteristics of
the wind project  Geographic location: Mexico, Oxaca, Isthmus of Tehuatepec
 Wind speed: 10 m/s
  Amount of energy produced in megawatts: The technically
possible maximum potential is estimated at 430000 mw by
incorporating orographic, environmental, social and economic
feasibility factors, it is reduced to 71000 mw.

Fuente: Google maps

Advantages and
disadvantages Advantage: The Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Oaxaca, Mexico has a
high energy and energetic position.

Disadvantage: Transnational companies are the ones that dominate

the commercial wind farm in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
Positive and negative The generation of wind energy does not produce toxic gases or
impacts of the project contribute to the greenhouse effect; It also does not generate
hazardous by-products and is alternative to fossil fuels, however, this
has negative impacts on the environment, such as the death of birds
and bats due to collision with wind turbines, given that the Istmo of
Tehuantepec is one of the most important migratory bird corridors.
Of the world, and given the number of wind turbines installed, the
risk of collision is high.
Aditionally, the community is dissatisfied because it states that they
have not benefited from the project
Technical
considerations
(comments from the
work team)
 References
Juárez-Hernández, S., & León, G. (2014). Wind energy in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec:
development, actors and social opposition. Development Problems, 45 (178), p. 139-162.
Retrieved from https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11831301006
Maya Ochoa, C., Hernández Betancur, J. D., & Galician Múnera, Ó. M. (2012). The Evaluation of
Wind Energy Projects in Colombia under the Real Options Approach. Cuadernos de
Administración, 25 (44), 193-231. Recovered from
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true
&db=zbh&AN=89059095&lang=en&site=eds-live
Otero, F., Cerne, B., & Campetella, C. (2017). Preliminary wind speed study in San Julian in
reference to wind power generation. Meteorological, 42 (2), p. 59-79.Recovered from
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true
&db=edselc&AN=edselc.2-52.0-85045294914&lang=en&site=eds-live