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3QFY19 Results Update Motilal Oswal
3QFY19 Results Update Motilal Oswal
Nalco
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
36,546 10,944
CMP: INR59 TP: INR69 (+16%) Buy
Bloomberg NACL IN
Equity Shares (m) 1,933 Disappointment in the form of higher cost of production
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 110.5 / 1.5 Cutting estimates due to lower alumina prices/higher CoP; Maintain Buy
52-Week Range (INR) 90 / 57 NALCO’s (NACL) EBITDA declined 40% QoQ (+10% YoY) to INR5.1b (our estimate:
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -7/-12/-24
INR6.2b) in 3QFY19 owing to lower volumes/realizations and higher cost of
12M Avg Val (INR M) 696
Free float (%) 43.2
production (CoP). The miss versus our estimate can primarily be ascribed to higher
CoP. Adj. PAT declined 41% QoQ (+9% YoY) to INR3b (our estimate: INR3.8b).
Financials & Valuations (INR b) Alumina: Production increased 12% QoQ to 532kt, but sales were down 10%
Y/E Mar 2019E 2020E 2021E QoQ to 293kt. Realization declined 15% QoQ to USD485kt (est. USD450/t). CoP
Net Sales 114.2 106.1 108.2 increased USD3 QoQ to USD323/t, despite the currency tailwinds.
EBITDA 27.9 16.7 16.8 Aluminum: Production was down 8% QoQ to 105kt, while sales were down
PAT 16.8 9.9 10.0 10% QoQ to 104kt (our estimate: 112kt). Realization increased 3% QoQ to
EPS (INR) 8.7 5.1 5.2
USD2,241/t, even as LME was lower, due to higher product premiums. CoP
Gr. (%) 70.8 -41.1 0.9
BV/Sh (INR) 53.6 51.6 49.6 increased USD172 QoQ to USD2,109/t, accentuated by reduced volumes
RoE (%) 16.1 9.7 10.2 leading to lower absorption of fixed cost.
RoCE (%) 22.4 12.9 13.5 Cutting estimates due to lower alumina and higher CoP; Maintain Buy
P/E (x) 6.8 11.6 11.5 NACL’s performance was impacted by alumina prices coming off their recent
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.1 1.2
highs and fixed cost absorption being lower due to reduced volumes. We
expect volumes to improve, which should drive down CoP, but the alumina
benchmark prices have fallen further as Chinese supply is rising.
Estimate change
We cut our alumina price estimate from USD400/t to USD350/t for FY20-21.
TP change
Spot alumina is at ~USD365/t. We have also marginally cut aluminum product
Rating change
premiums and increased CoP. EBITDA estimate is cut by ~27-29% to ~INR16b
and PAT by ~30% to ~INR10b for FY20-21.
We believe alumina/aluminum LME are close to bottom as, at the current
prices, ~20-30% of global smelters/refiners (particularly Chinese) would be in
cash losses. NACL is best placed to benefit from higher prices. We value the
stock at 6x (earlier 5.5x) FY20E EV/EBITDA at INR69/share. Maintain Buy.
Quarterly Performance (Standalone) – INR m
Y/E March FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19E FY19 vs Est
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QE 3QE (%)
Aluminium Sales ('000 tons) 89 113 110 112 105 115 104 112 424 436 112 -7
Alumina Sales ('000 tons) 259 380 256 440 320 324 293 353 1,335 1,290 303 -3
Avg LME Aluminium (USD/ton) 1,910 2,011 2,097 2,162 2,250 2,050 1,973 1,950 2,045 2,056 1,973 0
NSR premiums (USD/ton) 323 239 269 190 239 115 268 180 256 201 190 41
Alumina NSR (USD/ton) 314 334 422 413 570 568 485 365 371 497 450 8
Net Sales 18,027 24,548 23,888 28,632 29,733 30,409 27,189 26,826 95,094 114,157 27,455 -1
Change (YoY %) 16.4 33.0 20.2 12.3 64.9 23.9 13.8 -6.3 19.9 20.0 15
EBITDA 2,270 3,549 4,668 6,297 10,111 8,509 5,130 4,128 16,783 27,878 6,166 -17
Interest 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 0 20 0
Depreciation 1,170 1,123 1,243 1,268 1,217 1,160 1,181 1,219 4,804 4,777 1,224 -4
Other Income 859 810 766 573 621 903 758 704 3,008 2,985 704 8
PBT (before EO Item) 1,954 3,231 4,186 5,597 9,509 8,246 4,701 3,612 14,968 26,086 5,646 -17
Extra-ordinary Income 6 -32 6,784 -1,336 910 0 0 0 5,421 0
PBT (after EO Item) 1,960 3,199 10,969 4,261 10,419 8,246 4,701 3,612 20,388 26,086 5,646 -17
Total Tax 670 853 3,752 1,690 3,549 3,146 1,683 1,179 6,964 9,557 1,843 -9
% Tax 34.2 26.7 34.2 39.7 34.1 38.2 35.8 32.6 34.2 36.6 33
Reported PAT 1,289 2,346 7,218 2,571 6,871 5,100 3,018 2,433 13,424 16,529 3,803 -21
Adjusted PAT 1,287 2,127 2,756 3,685 6,270 5,100 3,018 2,433 9,855 16,529 3,803 -21
374 313 373 315 341 286 283 220 315 285 375 291 290 311 403 259 380 256 440 320 324 293
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
Source: MOSL, Company
321 306 308 263 239 257 266 277 323 314 334 422 413 570 568 485
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
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Nalco
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Nalco
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Nalco
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Nalco
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consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOSL also earns DP income from
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980
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Registration details: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412.
AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual
Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd.
is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. *Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate
products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing registration no(s) of MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.
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