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4Q19 New York City Local Apartment Report
4Q19 New York City Local Apartment Report
4Q19 New York City Local Apartment Report
MULTIFAMILY
New York City Q4/19
Rental Demand Keeps Vacancy Low; Investors
Evaluate Portfolio Strategy With New Legislation Multifamily 2019 Forecast
Y-O-Y Average
Staunch renter demand leaves operations unfazed by construction. Metro Vacancy Basis Point Effective Y-O-Y
Change
As an epicenter of global commerce, New York continues to attract Change Rent
greater business activity, including an expanding presence among tech-
nology firms such as Facebook, Google and Netflix. Ongoing job creation Bronx 1.1% 0 $1,494 2.0%
is supporting new household formation, lowering vacancy 100 basis
points from where it was five years ago despite accelerated construction
Brooklyn 2.0% -10 $2,339 3.7%
activity over that span. That is a substantial decline for a market where
availability rarely rises above 3 percent. Now in the mid-1 percent range,
the rate is unlikely to drop much farther, but the high cost of homeown- Manhattan 1.8% -10 $3,800 4.2%
ership will maintain a strong demand for apartments. Competition for
leases among prospective tenants will continue to support rent gains,
largely concentrated among market rate Class A and B units. Queens 1.4% -20 $2,233 3.4%
• Properties changed hands across the market, with the highest num-
NYC Apartment Yield Trends
ber of trades reported in Brooklyn and Manhattan. Over the past 12
Apartment Cap Rate 10-Year Treasury Rate months Bushwick emerged as a more prominent investment desti-
10.0% nation within Brooklyn, while in Manhattan, transaction velocity
was highest in the Lower and Upper West Side and Upper East Side.
7.5%
• While the Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act removed
methods for deregulating rent-stabilized apartments, those same
Rate
5.0%
stipulations do not apply to buildings with 421-a tax exemptions. For
these properties built before 2016, rent-stabilized units can still be
2.5%
converted to market rates once they become vacant. Buyer demand
for these types of assets may increase as a result.
0%
* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
• Investors based outside the U.S. continue to acquire New York
multifamily assets. A market average cap rate under 5 percent offers
compelling margin relative to government bonds, particularly for
Sales Trends
developed nations with interest rates near or below zero.
Sales Price Growth
* Cap rate trailing 12-month average through 3Q; Treasury rate as of Sept. 30
Sources: CoStar$600
Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics
er Unit (000s)
30%
Year-over-Y
$500 15%
MANHATTAN
• Total hiring was led by the creation of more than 43,000 jobs
Rate
0%
5.0%
in the education and health services sector, along with 14,500
-2%
2.5% additional roles in professional and business services. These
gains offset a contraction in finance and insurance positions.
-4% 0%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
$600 30%
12 • Nearly 3,500 apartments were completed in the first three quarters
Year-over-Year Growth
of 2019, for a trailing-12-month
15% total about 100 units below the
Units (000s)
$500
9
number of deliveries recorded during the previous yearlong span.
$400 0%
6
• The most openings made so far this year have been in Midtown
3 $300 South followed by the Lower -15%
Manhattan submarket. The largest
Manhattan finalization was the 533-rental building at 20 Broad St.
0 $200 in the Financial District. -30%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Rent Trends
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change RENT
$3,900 10%
4.3% increase in the average effective rent Y-O-Y
Year-over-Year Change
Monthly Effective Rent
3Q19 Median Household Income 3Q19 Affordability Gap Multifamily (5+ Units) Permits
U.S. Median $65,205 Average Effective Rent vs. Mortgage Payment* g 28% Compared with 1H
2016-2018
*Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price with a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, taxes, insurance and PMI. **2019-2024
Annualized Rate
0%
• A higher concentration
5.0% of Class C sales helped lift the average cap rate
from the high-3 percent range into the low-4 percent zone.
-2%
2.5%
Harlem 1.7% -10 $2,233 2.7% Outlook: The recent rent regulation may drive greater demand for market
-4% rate buildings, adding further upward pressure to entry costs.
0%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
$600 30%
12
Year-over-Year Growth
Units (000s)
$500 15%
9
Midtown South 2.1% -10 $4,406 4.7%
$400 0%
6
3 $300 -15%
$400 32%
16 • While approximately 1,000 fewer apartments opened in Brooklyn
Year-over-Year Growth
over the past four quarters than in the
16% prior annual span, the
Units (000s)
$300
12
borough still has the most active multifamily construction pipeline
8
$200 in New York City. 0%
$100
• Developers have been most active this
-16%
year in the Bed-Stuy/Fort
4
Greene/Bushwick and Williamsburg/Greenpoint/Navy Yard
0 $0 submarkets, with a combined 2,300-32%
rentals opened so far in 2019.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Rent Trends
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change RENT
$2,400 12% 3.6% increase in the average effective rent Y-O-Y
Year-over-Year Change
Monthly Effective Rent
$2,200 6% • The average effective rent climbed to $2,333 per month in the
third quarter after posting a 2.8 percent increase a year ago.
$2,000 0% Monthly rates rose by more than 5 percent in the general Bed-
Stuy and Williamsburg areas.
$1,800 -6%
• Rents grew by more than 3 percent for Brooklyn area Class A and B
$1,600 -12% units, aided by much lower vacancy in the luxury rental segment.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
3Q19 Median Household Income 3Q19 Affordability Gap Multifamily (5+ Units) Permits
U.S. Median $65,205 Average Effective Rent vs. Mortgage Payment* g 52% Compared with 1H
2016-2018
*Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price with a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, taxes, insurance and PMI. **2019-2024
Annualized Rate
2%
Southern Southeast • The average cap rate remained in the high-4 percent range for the
0.8% -10 $1,828 1.5%
Brooklyn seventh consecutive year, with initial returns ranging higher for Class
0%
B and C properties in Bushwick and the South Shore.
Southwest Brooklyn 0.9% -30 $1,666 1.1%
-2% Outlook: Elevated prices along the East River are drawing buyers farther
inland, where discounts still remain. This trend may be directing more in-
Ditmas Park/Flatbush 1.1% -20 $1,681 1.3%
-4% vestors to Bushwick, as the only submarket to report rising trade velocity.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Crown Heights/Prospect
1.4% -10 $1,874 1.6%
Lefferts Gardens
Park Slope/Prospect
Average Price per Unit (000s)
$400 32%
16 2.4% -20 $2,804 5.0%
Heights
Year-over-Year Growth
Units (000s)
$300 16%
12
Downtown Brooklyn 3.1% 10 $3,813 4.9%
$200 0%
8
Williamsburg/Green-
3.6% 20 $3,523 5.1%
point/Navy Yard 4 $100 -16%
• The pace of development activity slowed down notably over the past
Queens 6 3%
Units (000s)
four quarters compared with the 6,500 units that were delivered
Vacancy Rate
during the previous yearlong span.
4 2%
• Major completions in the borough included two projects with more
than 600 units apiece. The second tower for Jackson Park brought 2 1%
658 new apartments to Long Island City, while the 783-rental Eagles
0 0%
Loft opened only a few blocks away on Queen Street.
15 16 17 18 19*
Units (000s)
Vacancy
Queens • Central and Northwestern Queens continue to be the most active
Staten Island 6 3%
Units (000s)
Vacancy
submarkets in the borough for multifamily investment,4%
with entry
3.8% increase in effective rents Y-O-Y 0.5
Rate Rate
costs reported
4 in the $270,000-$350,000 range most often.
2% Initial
• Monthly payments have grown by more than 3 percent returns0lie in the high-4 to low-5 percent band. 2%
0 15 16 17 18 19* 0%
15 16 17 18 19*
STATEN ISLAND
CONSTRUCTION Supply and Demand
Completions Absorption Vacancy
8 units completed Y-O-Y 1.5 8%
Vacancy Rate
Staten Island
• No additional deliveries are anticipated for the rest of 2019, 0.5 4%
6.2% increase in effective rents Y-O-Y • The average sale price for recently traded assets was $190,000 per
unit, with cap rates reaching into the mid-6 percent range. Proper-
• Effective rents continue to grow at an increasing pace in 2019 as ties generally contained fewer than 20 apartments and were built
the average rate for Staten Island rose to $1,641 per month. This more than 40 years ago with rare exception.
time last year monthly payments had improved 3.0 percent.
CONSTRUCTION
Supply and Demand Supply and Demand
Completions Absorption Vacancy Completions Absorption Vacancy
3,400 units completed Y-O-Y
8 4% 4 4%
• Annualized delivery volume increased by approximately 1,100
Queens 6 3%
Units (000s)
Units (000s)
Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
the Bronx by less than 1 percent over the past 12 months.
4 2%
Bronx
2 2%
• Major completions for 2019 include Bridgeline Mott Haven with 91
apartments. Looking
2 forward, multiple projects are in the pipeline
1% 1 1%
with estimated completion dates extending into 2022.
0 0% 0 0%
15 16 17 18 19* 15 16 17 18 19*
VACANCYSupply
ANDand Demand
RENT Investment Highlights:
Supply and Demand
10 basis Completions
point decrease in AbsorptionY-O-Y Vacancy
vacancy Completions
• While the number Absorption
of trades reported over theVacancy
past four quar-
Supply and Demand Supply and Demand
1.5
• Consistently positive apartment absorption continues to trim
8% ters fell4short of the total from the previous annual period,
8% the
Completions Absorption Vacancy
vacancy, inching down to 1.1 percent in September after passing average saleCompletions
price rose to $220,000 per unit asVacancy
Absorption some buyers
1.0 6% Westch
Units (000s)
Units (000s)
Vacancy Rate
8 4%
below the 2 percent threshold in 2015.
VacancyVacancy
4 4%
Staten Island
Queens 0.5 4% • The most2 opportunities continued to be found in the West
4%
and
2.6%
6 3%
Units (000s)
Units (000s)
Vacancy Rate
Rate Rate
4 0 2% Manor,2Jerome
1 Park and Foxhurst neighborhoods. 2%
Bronx
• Rent growth improved at a slightly higher annualized pace in2% 2%
September compared
-0.5
with the 2.2 percent rate posted a year prior.
2 1%0% 0
1 0%
1%
The Bronx’s average effective
15
rent
16
is now
17
$1,503 18per month.
19* 15 16 17 18 19*
0 0% 0 0%
15 16 17 18 19*
WESTCHESTER COUNTY
15 16 17 18 19*
CONSTRUCTION
Supply and Demand Supply and Demand
Completions Absorption Vacancy
1,600 units completed Y-O-Y Completions Absorption Vacancy
1.5 8% 4 8%
• Construction activity remained about the same year over year in
September, as1.0
roughly 100 fewer apartments were completed over
6% Westc
Units (000s)
3 6%
Units (000s)
Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
Staten Island
the past 12 months than in the prior annual period.
0.5 4% 2 4%
• The future pipeline remains elevated, with nearly 3,000 units
expected to be 0completed before 2020. Projects yet to be finalized
2% in 1 2%
Gov't Agency
75%
Financial/Insurance
economy’s solid foundation has softened it in recent months, signaling continued
Nat'l Bank/Int'l Bank domestic growth in the near future.
50%
Reg'l/Local Bank
• Abundant liquidity balances conservative underwriting. Debt financing for
CMBS
25% apartment assets remains strong, supported by a variety of lenders. Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac, two mainstay apartment capital sources, were recently given
0% increased lending caps, allowing the two Government Sponsored Enterprises
15 16 17 18 1H19 to purchase $100 billion in loans during a yearlong period that started at the
beginning of the fourth quarter 2019. A wide range of local, regional and national
Includes sales $2.5 million and greater
Sources: CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics banks; pension funds; insurance companies and CMBS sources will also remain
active. All have responded to the falling interest rate climate by reducing mort-
gage rates, but lender spreads have widened as the 10-year Treasury rate remains
near cycle lows. Given the downward pressure on interest rates, lender caution
National Multi Housing Group
has risen, particularly for construction loans. Though lending is still available for
John Sebree these types of projects, investors may need to blend mezzanine debt with other
First Vice President, National Director | National Multi Housing Group
capital sources until they prove out their concepts and substantially fill units. For
Tel: (312) 327-5417 | john.sebree@marcusmillichap.com
stabilized existing assets in most major markets, financing remains plentiful.
Prepared and edited by
Cody Young
Research Analyst | Research Services
Philadelphia Office:
The information contained in this report was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. Every Brooklyn Office
Sean Beuche Region
effort was made to obtain accurate and complete information; however, no representation, warranty John Horowitz Vice President/Regional Manager 2005 Market Street, Suit
or guarantee, express or implied, may be made as to the accuracy or reliability of the information 1 MetroTech Center, Suite 2001 Brooklyn, NY 11201 Philadelphia, PA 19103
contained herein. Note: Metro-level employment growth is calculated based on the last month of the (718) 475-4300 | john.horowitz@marcusmillichap.com (215) 531-7000 | sean.beu
quarter/year. Sales data includes transactions valued at $1,000,000 and greater unless otherwise Manhattan Office
noted. This is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is not a guaranty regarding a John Krueger Vice President/Regional Manager
future event. This is not intended to provide specific investment advice and should not be considered 260 Madison Avenue, 5th Floor New York, NY 10016
(212) 430-5100| john.krueger@marcusmillichap.com
as investment advice.
Phoenix Office:
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; Bureau of Labor Statistics; CoStar Group, Inc.;
Experian; National Association of Realtors; Moody’s Analytics; Real Capital Analytics; RealPage, Ryan Sarbinoff Vic
Inc.; TWR/Dodge Pipeline; U.S. Census Bureau 2398 E. Camelback Road
Phoenix, AZ 85016
New Jersey Office:
(602) 687-6700 | ryan.sa