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4Q19 South Florida Local Apartment Report
4Q19 South Florida Local Apartment Report
MULTIFAMILY
South Florida Metros Q4/19
South Florida Apartment Market on Solid Footing,
Encouraging Investors to Increase Exposure Multifamily 2019 Forecast
Y-O-Y
Challenges to homeownership support rental demand. Strong migra- Metro Vacancy Basis Point Effective Y-O-Y
Rent Change
tion trends to the business-friendly and low-tax state of Florida are bol- Change
stering apartment demand in the three-county area, placing the sector
on a solid foundation as it enters the next year. Homeownership in South Miami 3.5% -50 $1,690 4.5%
Florida remains elusive to a wide swath of the population, resulting in a
homeownership rate in the region of 56.2 percent at midyear, well below
Fort Lauderdale 4.3% -90 $1,640 4.1%
the national rate of 64.1 percent. A shortage of developable land and
high home values are keeping the renter pool full and property metrics
at healthy levels, leading to rent growth near or above 5 percent in each West Palm Beach 4.5% -80 $1,660 4.7%
county in the third quarter.
6%
West Palm Beach
3% • Outside West Palm Beach, investors gravitated to Boynton Beach and
Greenacres, where going-in cap rates were in the upper-6 percent area
*
0%
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19* and the average price was in the low-$100,000s to mid-$100,000s.
$180 30%
Sources: CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics
Year-over-Y
$150 15%
MIAMI
3%
9%
• Over the past four quarters, employers added 30,000 jobs to
company payrolls, contributing to the lowest unemployment rate
Rate
0%
6%
since 2007 following a 40-basis-point decline to 3.2 percent in the
-3% third quarter.
3%
• Job gains were led by the education and health services sector,
-6% 0% which had 11,200 new hires, trailed by the 7,400 jobs created in
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
the professional and business services sector.
Year-over-Year Growth
Units (000s)
$150 15%
9 • Through the first nine months of 2019, developers completed nearly
5,000 units, pushing the year-over-year total to the highest level in
$120 0%
6 more than two decades and outpacing the almost 5,400 rentals built
during the previous period.
3 $90 -15%
• The largest delivery of the third quarter was The Shoreline at Solé
0 $60 Mia, comprising 397 doors. Also finalized in the third quarter was
-30%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Yard 8, a 387-unit 28-story tower in Midtown.
• The net absorption of more than 5,100 units and removal of 1,100
rentals compressed the vacancy rate to 3.4 percent in the third
6%
quarter, building on the 10-basis-point decline posted a year ago.
Rent Trends
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change RENT
$1,800 8%
5.0% increase in the average effective rent Y-O-Y
Year-over-Year Change
Monthly Effective Rent
* Forecast
Source: RealPage, Inc.
Demographic Highlights
3Q19 Median Household Income 3Q19 Affordability Gap Multifamily (5+ Units) Permits
U.S. Median $65,205 Average Effective Rent vs. Mortgage Payment* h 3% Compared with 1H
2016-2018
*Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price with a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, taxes, insurance and PMI. **2019-2024
Annualized Rate
Change Rents
3%
• Transaction velocity
9% edged higher in some of Miami’s neighborhoods,
North Central Miami 0.5% -10 $1,100 8.3% outside of the urban core, including Little Havana, Miami Gardens
Rate
0%
and Opa-Locka,6% as buyers chased yields and upside potential.
Homestead/ Outlook: Submarkets that still provide strong rent growth and have not
-3% 2.1% -60 $1,220 7.0%
South Dade County 3%
faced rising competition from new development will attract investors
-6% in search of higher yields and value-add opportunities, such as Hialeah,
Hialeah/Miami Lakes 102.5%11 60 $1,496 175.7%
0%
09 12 13 14 15 16 18 19*
Miami Lake and North01Central
03 05 07
Miami. 09 11 13 15 17 19*
$180 30%
12
Year-over-Year Growth
$150 15%
9
Downtown Miami/
3.7% -90 $2,090 4.2% $120 0%
South Beach 6
3 $90 -15%
West Miami/Doral 4.1% 40 $1,914 2.2%
0 $60 -30%
Northeast Miami 09 4.5%11
10 12 -80
13 14 $1,634
15 16 17-0.5%
18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Overall Metro 3.4% -20 $1,672 5.0% * Trailing 12 months through 3Q19
Vacancy Rate Trends Pricing trend sources: CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics
Metro United States
10%
FORT LAUDERDALE
Year-over-Year Growth
• Deliveries so far this year totaled 1,800 units, bringing the year-over-
Units (000s)
$135 15%
4 year total roughly 600 rentals below the almost 3,100 apartments
completed during the prior period. Nearly 15,000 units have been
$90 0%
2
built over the past five years.
0 $45 • Pearl Flagler Village was the largest delivery
-15%of the third quarter
totaling 357 rentals. Also completed in the third quarter was Eon at
-2 $0 -30%
Flagler Village, a 12-story building that contains 206 apartments.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
8%
• Net absorption totaled approximately 3,300 units over the past
Vacancy Rate
Rent Trends
RENT
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change
$1,800 18%
4.9% increase in the average effective rent Y-O-Y
• Building on a 3.3 percent increase registered one year ago, the
Year-over-Year Change
Monthly Effective Rent
$1,600 12%
average effective rent climbed to $1,620 per month in the third
quarter amid low vacancy and strong tenant demand.
$1,400 6%
• A 5.9 percent increase in the Class C segment lifted the average
$1,200 0% effective rent to $1,227 monthly, followed by a 5.0 percent at Class B
complexes to $1,624 per month.
$1,000 -6%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
* Forecast
Source: RealPage, Inc.
Demographic Highlights
3Q19 Median Household Income 3Q19 Affordability Gap Multifamily (5+ Units) Permits
U.S. Median $65,205 Average Effective Rent vs. Mortgage Payment* g 29% Compared with 1H
2016-2018
*Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price with a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, taxes, insurance and PMI. **2019-2024
Annualized Rate
4%
Pompano Beach/ • The average first-year yield held stable over the past year, resting in
2.9% -100 $1,397 3.9%
Deerfield Beach the low-6 percent band.
0%
Sunrise/Lauderhill 3.8% -140 $1,429 7.6% Outlook: Lower pricing than the rest of South Florida along with strong
-4% tenant demand boost investor perceptions. Areas surrounding Fort
Lauderdale proper including Flagler Village and portions of West Broward
Pembroke Pines/Miramar
-8%
3.9% -70 $1,727 3.4% County will remain major targets.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Margate/Coconut Creek/
4.3% -40 $1,564 2.8%
North Lauderdale
Completions and Absorption Sales Trends
Plantation/Davie/Weston 4.3%
Completions-70 $1,751
Absorption 4.4% Sales Price Growth
Average Price per Unit (000s)
$180 30%
6
Hollywood 4.4% 150 $1,500 6.7%
Year-over-Year Growth
Units (000s)
$135 15%
4
-2 $0 -30%
Overall Metro 09 10 4.2%
11 12 -50
13 14 $1,620
15 16 17 4.9%
18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
• During the first three quarters of the year, 7,200 jobs were created,
Year-over-Year Change
3%
bringing the year-over-year total to 12,800. The jobless rate fell to
3.3 percent in September, a 20-basis-point decline from the same
0%
time one year earlier.
-3%
• Employment growth was headlined by the professional and
business services sector with the creation of 5,700 jobs, followed
-6%
by education and health services, adding 2,300 workers.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Year-over-Year Growth
$180 2017 as just over 1,600 units were built over20%
the past four quarters,
Units (000s)
4
down by nearly 700 rentals from the previous yearlong stretch.
$140 0%
2 • At 392 units, Town Southern in Royal Palm Beach, which was
finalized this summer, is the largest delivery of the year. Still
0 $100 -20%
underway is the second largest project, Azola West Palm Beach,
-2 $60
which will total 179 rentals. -40%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
$1,000 -4%
* Forecast 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
3Q19 Median Household Income 3Q19 Affordability Gap Multifamily (5+ Units) Permits
U.S. Median $65,205 Average Effective Rent vs. Mortgage Payment* g 36% Compared with 1H
2016-2018
*Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price with a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, taxes, insurance and PMI. **2019-2024
Annualized Rate
3%
• The average cap rate registered over the past 12 months remained in
Lake Worth/Greenacres/
0%
3.6% -20 $1,386 5.8% the low-6 percent territory.
Wellington
Outlook: Rent growth remains strong across Palm Beach County and with
-3% the new Virgin Trains line and a growing cohort of young professionals,
West Palm Beach 4.0% -170 $1,451 5.3% investors will eye multifamily assets in the area. Boynton Beach, Delray
-6% Beach and Boca Raton will be of particular interest.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Boynton Beach/
5.6% -90 $1,671 3.9%
Delray Beach Completions and Absorption Sales Trends
Completions Absorption Sales Price Growth
Average Price per Unit (000s)
$220 40%
Boca Raton 6 5.7% -30 $1,999 8.2%
Year-over-Year Growth
Units (000s)
$180 20%
4
$140 0%
2
North Palm Beach County 6.3% -10 $1,702 4.2%
0 $100 -20%
-2 $60 -40%
Overall Metro 09 105.0%
11 12 -70
13 14 $1,644
15 16 17 5.7%
18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Columbus Office:
230 West Street, Suite 100
Columbus, OH 43215
(614) 360-9800
Austin Office:
Cincinnati Office:
Craig Swanson Vice President/Regional Manager
9600 North Mopac Expressway, Suite 300
Austin, TX 78759
Colby Haugness Regional Manager
600 Vine Street, 10th Floor
(512) 338-7800 | craig.swanson@marcusmillichap.com
Cincinnati, OH 45202
CAPITAL MARKETS
(513) 878-7700 | colby.haugness@marcusmillichap.com
Benjamin Yelm Regional Manager active. All have responded to the falling interest rate climate by reducing mort-
201 South Tryon Street, Suite 1220 gage rates, but lender spreads have widened as the 10-year Treasury rate remains
Charlotte, NC 28202
(704) 831-4600 | benjamin.yelm@marcusmillichap.com
near cycle lows. Given the downward pressure on interest rates, lender caution
Houston Office: Memphis
has risen,Office:
particularly for construction loans. Though lending is still available for
National Multi Housing Group
Ford Noe Regional Manager these types
Jody McKibben of projects, investors may
Vice President/Regional need to blend mezzanine debt with other
Manager
John Sebree
Three Riverway, Suite 800 5100 Poplar
capital Avenue, until
sources Suite 2505
they prove out their concepts and substantially fill units. For
First Vice President, National Director | National Multi Housing Group Edmonton Office:
Houston, TX 77056 Memphis, TN 38137
Chicago Area Offices: stabilized
Tel: (312) 327-5417 | john.sebree@marcusmillichap.com
(713) 452-4200 | ford.noe@marcusmillichap.com (615) 997-2860existing assets in most major markets, financing remains plentiful.
| jody.mckibben@marcusmillichap.com
David Bradley Regional Manager | Chicago Downtown Rene H. Palsenbarg Regional Manager
333 by
West Wacker Drive, Suite 200, Chicago, IL 60606 10180 101 Street, Suite 3400
Prepared and Edited
(312) 327-5479 | david.bradley@marcusmillichap.com Edmonton, Alberta T5J 3S4
Michael Murphy (604) 675-5200 | rene.palsenbarg@marcusmillichap.com
Research Analyst | Steven Weinstock First Vice President/Regional Manager | Oak Brook
Research Services
One Mid America Plaza Suite 200
Oakbrook Terrace,
Indianapolis Office: IL 60181 Miami Office:
Encino Office:
For information on national
(630) apartment
570-2250 trends, contact:
| steven.weinstock@marcusmillichap.com
John ChangJosh Caruana Vice President/Regional Manager ScottMarkel
Jim LunineViceVicePresident/Regional
President/RegionalManager
Manager
600 E.National
Senior Vice President, 96th Street, Suite 500
Director | Research Services 5201 Blue
16830 Lagoon
Ventura Drive, Suite
Boulevard, Suite100
100
Indianapolis, IN 46240 Miami, FL
Encino, CA 33126
91436
Tel: (602) 707-9700 | john.chang@marcusmillichap.com
(317) 218-5300 | josh.caruana@marcusmillichap.com (786) 212-2700
(818) 522-7000||jim.markel@marcusmillichap.com
scott.lunine@marcusmillichap.com
Price: $750
Fort Lauderdale Office:
Cincinnati Office:
© Marcus & Millichap 2019 | www.MarcusMillichap.com Ryan Nee District Manager
Colby Haugness Regional Manager 5900 N. Andrews Avenue, Suite 100
600 Vine Street, 10th Floor Ft. Lauderdale,
Milwaukee FL 33309
Office:
Kansas City Office:
Cincinnati, OH 45202 (954) 245-3400 | ryan.nee@marcusmillichap.com
(513) 878-7700 | colby.haugness@marcusmillichap.com Todd Lindblom Regional Manager
Colby Haugness Regional Manager 13890 Bishops Drive, Suite 300
600 Vine Street, 10th Floor Brookfield, WI 53005
Cincinnati, OH 45202 (262) 364-1900 | todd.lindblom@marcusmillichap.com
(513) 878-7700 | colby.haugness@marcusmillichap.com
The information contained in this report was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. Every effort was made to obtain accurate and complete information; however, no representation, warranty or guarantee,
express or implied, may be made as to the accuracy or reliability of the information contained herein. Note: Metro-level employment growth is calculated based on the last month of the quarter/year. Sales data
includes transactions valued at $1,000,000 and greater unless otherwise noted. This is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is not a guaranty regarding a future event. This is not intended to provide
specific investment advice and should not be considered as investment advice.
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; Bureau of Labor Statistics; CoStar Group, Inc.; Experian; National Association of Realtors; Moody’s Analytics; Real Capital Analytics; RealPage, Inc.; TWR/Dodge
Jacksonville Office: Minneapolis Office:
Pipeline; U.S. Census Bureau
Justin West, Vice President/Regional Manager Jon Ruzicka Regional Manager
5220 Belfort Road, Suite 120 1350 Lagoon Avenue Suite 840
Jacksonville, FL 32256 Minneapolis, MN 55408
(904) 672-1400 | justin.west@marcusmillichap.com (952) 852-9700 | jon.ruzicka@marcusmillichap.com