ob& hrd | Rabbi | Employment

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, NEW DELHI

NameBatchPhone NoEmail IdSection Faculty – Subject -

Shashendra kumar singh FW-2008-10 9910130144 shashendra2151983@gmail.com P2 Prof apoorv chauhan O.B AND HRD

Project Title- “The strategic job analysis challenge in organizations today”

Abstract:-

The study of leadership isn't nearly as exact as, say, the study of chemistry. For one thing, the social world isn't nearly as orderly as the physical world, nor is it as susceptible to rules. For another, people, unlike solids, fluids, or gases, are anything but uniform and anything but predictable. Having been a teacher and a student all of my adult life, I am as leery as anyone of the idea of leaping to conclusions, or making more of evidence than is demonstrably true. So I have been forced, again and again, to qualify my answers. People wanted to know The Truth, and I was giving them opinions. To an extent, leadership is like beauty: it's hard to define, but you know it when you see it. Despite decades of disappointing theory and research on leadership – how many ways are there to insult Trait Theory, belabor the inadequacies of the Behavioral Style approaches, or attack the limitations of Fiedler's 8-point LPC scale anyway? – many scholars and business practitioners are still attracted to the “beauty” of leadership (Bennis, 1989) or what Meindl et al . (1985) refer to as the “romance” of leadership. Our own favorite observation is that of leadership guru James MacGregor Burns (1978), who notes that “Leadership is one of the most observed and least understood phenomena on earth.” Now, 30 years after Burns' comment (and after 30 years of additional theory and research on leadership), we are not much closer to understanding the true nature of the phenomenon (see Yukl, 1981; Bass, 1990). We concur with the statement in a past review of leadership research that “we do know a good deal more about leadership today than we did 40 years ago, but without doubt, we still have a lot to learn” (Fiedler, 1996, p. 242). The question now is how best to proceed with such learning of leadership. The purpose of this paper is to examine why leadership theory and research are so

fragmented and incomplete. We first address the nature of theory and theory development in order to establish common ground on the attributes of “good” theories. We then trace the search for knowledge in leadership using five different “inquiry systems” – based on the theorizing of Locke, Leibnitz, Kant, Hegel, and Singer – to obtain knowledge. We discuss how these inquiry systems have been used in previous leadership research, and, more importantly, how they might help in the future development of leadership theories and research.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Individual efforts alone can never contributes in totality to a successful completion of any venture. I would like to express my gratitude to the following persons who have made valuable contributions towards my project work. I would like to express my sincere thanks to the management . and in particular to Mr. Abishek chaturvedi HR Manager for his total support. I also like to acknowledge several other practitioners in the organization too numerous to name individually for sharing their ideas. Finally I owe special thanks to my internal project guide for sharing the knowledge, guidance and encouragement required for the completion of my project

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 TOPICS INTRODUCTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ABSTRACT THEORETICAL REVIEW/ PERSPECTIVE REVIEW AND RESEARCH ANNEXURE SUGGESTION AND RECOMMENDATIONS BIBLIOGRAPHY . No.CONTENTS S.

to recognize a post-job society where the norm of payrolled. training). compensation. In other words. One reason for the lack of clarity surrounding human resources' role in the context of the boundaryless organization is due to the field's traditional dependence on the job as the fundamental unit of the organization. While organizational design and strategic management solutions have been proposed for the boundaryless organization (e. those between functions. Davis. 1995). information. Indeed.INTRODUCTION: Reengineering. thus. decisions.e. At the same time. A boundaryless organization is one that focuses on permeating all internal and external boundaries (e. job analysis provides the basis for virtually all human resource functions (i. cogent arguments have been made to bury our long-standing conceptualization of the job and. much of . and how work is done... instead. relatively little has been discussed in terms of the human resource practices and processes to best support it. 1995. 1994).. the organization and its suppliers. recruitment. selection. restructuring. rewards. al. and action (Ashkenas et al. This literature advocates radical departures from the ways in which we view what are organizations' most important tasks. Purported to underlie hundreds of these and other innovative approaches is a fundamental paradigmatic shift called the boundaryless organization.g. full-time employees performing narrow duties in particular departments is history (Bridges. 1995). Ashkenas et. even rethinking approaches to organizational design have proliferated in recent management literature (Keidel.. "work" has been described as undergoing such a fundamental transformation that we must necessarily question and perhaps replace the body of knowledge underlying the psychology of work behavior (Howard.g. how specific human resources practices "fit" or become consonant with boundaryless organizational principles is not clear. even between nations) with free movement of ideas. talent. 1994). 1995). In fact. when. and who decides these issues. where.

information. 1987). empowered organization. processes. viewing the job as the fundamental organizational unit has been criticized as outmoded and ineffective (Bridges. Souder. can benefit the boundaryless organization. 1989). predetermined duties (Miner & Robinson. particularly in the area of jobs (Belous. Ashkenas et al. cultures. . This shift recognizes the limitations of the following four types of organizational boundaries: vertical (between levels and ranks of people). The Boundaryless Paradigm Underlying the rise of various forms of "new organization" to which have been ascribed the terms virtual organization. cross-functional coordination.. tasks. the focus is on how to move ideas. 2. and places. recruitment. 1994. skills.. a boundary mindset assumption is that knowledge. and person-organization value congruence in particular. Finally. and geographic (between nations. external (between the organization and its suppliers. mostly used to produce services or products (Ashkenas et al. the importance of organizational culture. department identity rules refer to decentralization. and selection as boundaryless functions. and process reengineered organization is "a single. contingent employment arrangements)." (p. and teams which blur functional boundaries. talent. This apparent conflict between the idea of jobs being the central focus of human resources and recent literature proposing that the job is no longer a useful way to organize and manage work is the motivation behind this research. high-performing work teams. and decisions where they are most necessary (Ashkenas et al. Because one of human resource management's strategic roles is to find the best potential match between the organization and the individual. and selection. whereas lower-level workers have narrow technical skills. Somewhat similarly. 1994. job analysis will be examined first. horizontal (between functions and disciplines). Indeed.. In the boundaryless organization. Miner and Robinson (1994) define a boundaryless organization as one in which rules regarding membership. However. recruitment. 1995). Recruitment and selection practices will then be similarly evaluated. general propositions for both practitioners and researchers are provided. and abilities (KSAs) are found in abundance at the top of the organizational pyramid. Organization membership rules refer to the blurring of organizational boundaries (e. is discussed. increases in outsourcing of activities. emphasizing important values instead of specific. The purpose of this paper is to examine implications of the boundaryless paradigm for three areas of human resources: job analysis.g. customers. Conversely. 1994).. 1995). as well as some existing recruitment and selection practices. 1994). The intended goal of this paper is to challenge human resource practitioners and researchers to view job analysis. and regulators).human resource technology is grounded in the notion of individuals holding jobs (Lawler. these boundaries are not used to separate people. deeper paradigm shift that we call the emergence of the boundaryless organization. Two major approaches to job analysis will be evaluated based on boundaryless principles. Lawler. other researchers have noted increased organizational fluidity over the past decade. 1995). departmental identity. Specifically. and markets). rather. it will be argued that one major job analysis method. and job responsibility are ambiguous. Due to its centrality to both recruitment and selection. and job responsibility rules refer to a movement toward more general job descriptions.

Finally. workers numbered over 30 million in 1988 about one-quarter of the workforce (Belous. First. The collective contingency of non-traditional U. there is evidence to suggest that this notion is no longer the best way to think about organizing and managing individuals (Lawler. Boundaryless Employment Arrangements An increase in nontraditional employment contracts between the worker and the organization is cited as an example of blurred organizational boundaries (Miner & Robinson. the very jobs that are represented by boxes on an organizational chart encourage hiring because managers are bestowed power according to the number of turf areas they oversee. the "familiar envelopes" we call jobs are becoming extinct. every worker in a boundary mindset hierarchy has a clearly defined role. many companies are not only accepting but encouraging telecommuting among their employees (Charbuck & Young. . which focuses on the individual's needed skills to accomplish organizational goals. teleconferencing. Similarly. 1995). In fact. and leasing. consulting. workers. as well as evidence of a post-job society (Bridges. 1989). Bridges (1994) posits that while the amount of work in organizations continues to grow. His solution. The reality is that the "post-job" worker will be far more independent and self-directed than was the job-based worker (Bridges. when organizations reduce head count. Lawler (1994) challenges what he calls the jobbased approach to organizing and managing (i. not for accomplishing the necessary work. Bridges (1994) further asserts that most organizations lack effective ways to manage in "dejobbed" environments which consist of significant numbers of temporary workers. Thus.S.S. he or she is encouraged to do it. job-sharing.e. in part. Further. 1994. It is now estimated that this contingency represents almost one-half (Halal. 1994). many employees welcome these options for more flexible hours and more control over where they work. and which projects they would most prefer (Belous. part-timers. 1992). part-time. videoconferencing. Bowen & Lawler. Although some employees have little choice but to accept one of these forms of employment. 1994). consultants. Escalating overhead costs coupled with technological advancements such as workflow systems. When an individual has the skill to do a task. personal accountability for the work is discouraged at the expense of accountability for the job (Bridges.Thus. contracting. Moreover.. regardless of title or position (Ashkenas et al. an increasing number of jobs is in constant flux and job descriptions cannot be rewritten every week. and electronic mail have made working off-site a mutually beneficial option for many workers and organizations. The term contract denotes the different forms employment is taking in the 1990s: temporary. how they work.. is a project-based organizational structure whereby job descriptions and supervisors' orders are replaced by evolving demands of a project. and contract workers. jobs are the basic building blocks of complex organizations) and calls for a paradigmatic shift to the competency-based organization. 1992). jobs are rewarded on the basis of doing the jobs. 1994). In the boundaryless organization. competencies reside and are recognized throughout the workplace. 1989). 1994). 1994) of all employed U. Although virtually all human resource technology is grounded in the notion of individuals holding jobs.

need not imply that this systematic process of discovering work-related information is merely useful for a narrow scope of tasks or easily defined duties. Contrary to criticisms of the inadequacies of job analysis. it has recently been criticized as inflexible and legalistic (Drucker. where jobs are static for longer time periods. job analysis techniques can be classified as work-oriented or worker-oriented (Gatewood & Feild. tasks and behaviors leading to KSAs) about virtually any kind of work activity (Gatewood & Feild. where work activities are created and evolve more quickly. 1987). 1994). 1995). Given what we know about the boundaryless organization and the boundaryless worker. however. Lawler. Boundaryless Job Analysis Given that the job itself may be an increasingly unreliable way to characterize what workers do (Bridges. disciplines. The importance of valid KSAs cannot be overstated. Work-oriented methods involve specific descriptions of the various tasks performed on a job. its traditional conception has been called obsolete (Sanchez. a discussion of analysis and an examination of its role in the boundaryless organization follows. what are the important implications for human resources? What. too restrictive. and levels of workers (Ashkenas et al. the worker-oriented approach is proposed as more appropriate than the work-oriented approach because the former possesses the flexibility needed in the boundaryless organization. . In general. these arguments posit that the job is too myopic. constitutes effective employee recruitment and selection in such an environment? Because effective recruitment and selection practices are based on some form of job analysis (Gatewood & Feild. 1995.e. Thus. as the relationship between them and individual performance in the organization is well-established (Davis. The "job" in job analysis.. 1994).In sum. if anywhere. than in more traditionally structured organizations. Whether work.. Ashkenas et al. Job analysis is a tool to systematically gather data (i. 1994). boundaryless organization research prescribes permeable structures at all organizational levels. a plausible argument can be made that job analysis would be more important in the boundaryless organization.or worker-oriented. whereas worker-oriented methods examine broad human behaviors involved in work activities. 1994). job analysis methods allow for the inference of worker KSAs and other characteristics (Gatewood & Feild.. 1994). 1994). 1994. 1994). for instance. it is proposed here that job analysis is capable of examining both diverse and changing occupations. Not all job analysis approaches are equal. where. Gatewood & Feild. 1994. however. Although job analysis is considered the virtual cornerstone of human resources practices. In addition. the growth of diverse employment arrangements provides information about worker mobility and the increasingly flexible nature of employment. thus. and too inflexible for the success of both the organization and its workers. 1995) and those aimed at thriving in a de-jobbed society (Bridges. KSAs include job-related information and the necessary human abilities to perform certain job activities. In essence. does job analysis fit in the boundaryless organization? Job analysis is the measurement of tasks and/or worker attributes for a given job. These criticisms parallel other arguments that focus on creating boundaryless conditions between functions.

and things (worker functions scales). worker-oriented methods do not cover actual task activities.. limitations. measures worker involvement with people. Thus. p. tools/equipment used. One criticism that has been aimed specifically at the PAQ is its required reading level. 1991). 1994).Consider a work-oriented method such as the Functional Job Analysis. one that allows "meaningful comparisons" to be made between jobs that are highly dissimilar at the task level (Harvey. & Mecham. "Personality.. Further. Worker-oriented methods provide a standardized means for collecting quantitative data across a wide spectrum of jobs and yield helpful information in formulating employee specifications (Gatewood & Feild. 1995. The JEI has been found to possess a factor analytic structure parallel to that of the PAQ (Harvey et al.g." and "Job tasks are too diverse to be captured in questionnaire form. or PAQ (McCormick. While work. and relationships with others. Other comments included (in order): "Interpersonal contacts are inadequately assessed. 1975). 1994). 1994). and also measures numerous other qualifications and specifications. Friedman. the Job Element Inventory. Whereas some worker-oriented methods have been criticized for their lack of structure and absence of task data (Gatewood & Feild. 1972). instructions followed). is that it provides limited utility due to the changing nature of the job. estimated at post-college or higher (Ash & Edgell. who does the task. research shows that workers have criticized the use of a point-factor job analysis questionnaire based on widely used job evaluation scales (Taber & Peters. For instance. Jeanneret.g. This worker-oriented method includes information about worker input." . However. however. and the work approach in general (e. mental processes. 639)." and "Creativity is not mentioned"). work output. technical.. focuses on general worker behaviors instead of tasks. data. another worker-oriented job analysis method modeled after the PAQ. 1978). or JEI (Cornelius & Hakel. identifies job tasks in terms of task statements (e.and worker-oriented job analysis methods have not been directly compared by incumbent workers. Taber and Peters (1991) found the most frequent comment made by hundreds of administrative. the JEI's use poses few problems for job incumbents and supervisors who may serve as job analysis raters.. requires a 10th-grade reading level. and clerical workers was that their jobs could not be described by the job analysis questionnaire. 1988). the worker-oriented approach may have few. the worker-oriented approach has been called one of the most useful methods of work description developed to date. 1977). Miner & Robinson." "The job has been revised or is evolving. 1988. these "limitations" may become less important or even prove useful in the boundaryless organization. or FJA (Fine & Wiley. The Position Analysis Questionnaire. Given that job descriptions are becoming less important for boundaryless organizations (Ashkenas et al. The FJA assesses specific job outputs.g. attitude are very important.. on the other hand. if any. identifying what a worker does and how each task is performed). Hakel. The main problem with the FJA. The next most frequent comment was that the questionnaire did not assess some personal attributes brought by the employee to the job (e. a requirement for job description development. what action is performed. immediate result. & Cornelius.

To successfully plan for the future. performance evaluation. Bohlander (2001) points out that “The ultimate purpose of job analysis is to improve organizational performance and productivity” (p. to apply Jewish liturgy. how much time they spend performing each one. The Reconstructionist Commission on the Role of the Rabbi (2001) points out that “Rabbis choose their work in order to teach Torah.. A job analysis should identify the types of technologies and equipment that are to be used on the job and point out the types of education and experience that are required for the job to be done successfully (Pynes. the Commission cites Rabbi Dennis C. symbolizer. 2001). Indeed. This will help them to determine whether the needed abilities and qualifications can be found in their current employees. or whether hiring new people is the best solution. the Taber and Peters (1991) study implies that workers who are only asked work-oriented information such as major tasks. or that involve a diverse set of important but infrequent tasks. the importance of each task. continuously evolving. and that conducting a strategic job analysis will help the organization address this challenge in a way that improves organizational effectiveness. spokesperson for ethical . tasks and activities of the job (Bohlander. Human resource managers also use the job analysis data to conduct other human resources activities. Like for-profit organizations. these very types of "jobs" describe what workers do in a boundaryless organization. and the design of training and career development programs (Bohlander.1997). Sasso’s 1989 article in The Reconstructionist. equipment used. This information is used to prepare a job description. 2001). WHAT IS JOB ANALYSIS A job analysis involves collecting information about a job by reviewing the duties. Although job analysis and job evaluation serve different (yet related) functions. 2001). it is likely that any existing job evaluation procedure cannot comprehensively evaluate jobs which are highly interdependent.” in which the typical rabbinic roles were listed as preacher. nonprofit organizations need to “recognize that most jobs will not remain stable but will change to meet future demands” (Pynes. to lead and shape spiritual communities…[and] these are the tasks for which the congregation has engaged them…but the rabbi is also in the role of ‘employee’” (p. pastor-counselor.According to Taber and Peters (1991). its complexity. In the Report of the Reconstructionist Commission on the Role of the Rabbi (2001). Synagogues need to undertake job analysis and prepare job descriptions before hiring a rabbi or executive director. “The Rabbi’s Role in a Participatory Community. 36). perceive these data as inadequate measures of what they do. etc. vessel of holiness. wisdom and ritual to moments of life passages. ritualizer.1997). which states the specific duties and responsibilities of a person in the job (Bohlander. organizations working on a strategic plan need to conduct a job analysis for their current positions and possible future positions. such as recruitment and selection. unpredictable. whether it would be beneficial to undertake extensive training for current employees. 88).

values. spiritual leader and advisor. head of synagogue. or style. Synagogues need to evaluate what kind of skills. Henley (1997) points out. too. 81). Executive directors. supervision of budget preparation and implementation. and knowledge and understanding of synagogue life. finding the right “fit” by including job analysis in strategic planning can work regardless of synagogue size. supervision of office staff. and others have been trained as educators. and it lists the job duties of an executive director. The United Synagogue of Conservative Judaism describes the synagogue executive director as person who “serves as the representative of the officers and directors (trustees) in administering the affairs of the congregation” (p. as Iris P. executive administrator. knowledge and experience are required for a rabbi to be the right kind of employee/spiritual leader for their particular congregation. supervision of purchasing. supervision of administrative activities. A strategic plan that incorporates strategic human resources planning can use job analysis to determine whether a current or prospective rabbi or executive director has the skills. denomination. In its 2002 Directory and Resource Guide. knowledge and experience to take the congregation in the direction it wants or needs to go in the future. problem solving skills. executive directors need to have interpersonal skills. and different congregations set their priorities differently. The Guide goes on to state that the executive director carries out the synagogue’s policies but does not make them. Not every rabbi and executive director has skill and/or experience in every area. and development of fund raising and membership campaigns. While synagogues vary in a multitude of ways. Some come from the business world. some from the world of Jewish communal service. In addition. . come to their positions with a wide variety of skills and experience. Duties named in the list include assisting committees in planning activities.

g. analyzing and setting out information about the content of jobs in order to provide the basis for a job description and data for recruitment. supervisory) required level of education (indirectly related to salary level) . training.. fiscal. PURPOSE Conducting a job analysis can help identify: Selection Procedures: job duties that should be included in advertisements of vacant positions minimum requirements (education and/or experience) for screening applicants interview questions Compensation: skill levels responsibilities (e. job evaluation and performance management It is the process which provides information used for writing job description ( a list of the job entails) and job specification (what kind of people to hire for the job).THEORETICAL REVIEW/ PRESPECTIVE: Job Analysis Process of collecting.

Methods of Collecting Job Data .

Human resource planning has traditionally. Under past conditions of relative environmental certainty and stability. management strives to have the . Planning is increasingly the product of the interaction between line management and planners. and heightened international competition are changing the need for and the nature of human resource planning in leading organizations. Through planning. In addition. As human resource planners involve themselves in more programs to serve the needs of the business. Increasing environmental instability. demographic shifts. organizations are realizing that in order to adequately address human resource concerns. they face new and increased responsibilities and challenges. changes in technology. In an early treatment of the topic. and even influence the direction of the business. they must develop long-term as well as shortterm solutions.been used by organizations to ensure that the right person is in the right job at the right time. Vetter (1967) defined human resource planning as the process by which management determines how the organization should move from its current manpower position to its desired position. human resource planning focused on the short term and was dictated largely by line management concerns.

quality.hand with a short-term orientation. Because a major objective of planning is facilitating February 1990 • American Psychologist Copyright 1990 by the American Psychological Association. It involves forecasting the organization's future human resource needs and planning for how those needs will be met. No.' Increasingly this is being done in leading organizations. at the right places. Brush. human resource planning includes gathering data that can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of ongoing programs and inform planners when revisions i n their forecasts and programs are needed. appraising. Now. although in the past business needs usually defined personnel needs and human resource planning. describes an integrated linkage between business and human resource plans as one by which human resource and line managers work jointly to develop business plans and determine human resource needs. and Donald K. 1 985b). economic.. In addition." 1984. It's part of policy development. as well as Donald Laidlaw. Human resources is part of the strategic (business) planning process. Contemporary human resource planning occurs within the broad context of organizational and strategic business planning. doing things which result in both the organization and the individual receiving maximum long-run benefits. New York. majorchanges in business. AT&T. compensating. line extension planning and the merger and acquisition processes. Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Susan E. For example. It may also involve developing and implementing programs to improve employee performance or to increase employee satisfaction and involvement in order to boost organizational productivity. and the special issue editors for their comments on previous drafts of this article. we thank Henry A. and social environmentsare creating uncertainties that are forcing organizationsto integrate business planning with human resourceplanning and to adopt a longer term perspective. vice president of human resources at Digital Equipment Corporation. 6 Washington Place. such joint efforts occur when human resource planners convince corporate business planners that "human resources represent a major competitive advantage" ("Planning with People. ' Throughout this article we use terms such as business objectives and business needs in a generic sense to refer to the bottom- . 2. John O'Brien. 0003. 223-239 Human Resource Planning Challenges for Industrial/Organizational Psychologists Susan E. Schuler New York University an organization's effectiveness. two very helpful anonymous reviewers. This article describes We thank James Walker. which meant that planning became a reactive process. or innovation (Mills. and Manuel London.75 Vol. and training) to ensure that people are available with the appropriate characteristics and skills when and where the organization needs them.right number and the right kinds of people. at the right time. review emerging human resource issues. it must be integrated with the organization's short-term and longer term business objectives and plans.066X/90/$00. for permitting us to quote our discussions with them. The reactive nature of the process went handin. According to O'Brien. BMR. Inc. 45. policy or finalizationstages of any deal. Department of Psychology. Goodstein. Jackson and Randall S. NY 10003. vice president ofhuman resources at Liz Claiborne.according to Kathryn Connors. Finally. Jackson. Little is done-in the company that doesn't involve us in the planning. the IBM Corporation. New York University. and develop programs to address the issues and support the business plans. Inc. the Barden Corporation. )that can increase profits when managed carefully. analyze the work force profile in terms of future business strategies. It includes establishing objectives and then developing and implementing programs (staffing. for their helpful insights.

so organizations typically attempt to reduce its impact." 1988. which is but one important environmental factor. 1988. nearly one fourth of the high school graduates who entered the Navy read below the 10th-grade level (National Alliance of Business.8%. "Managing Now. 1989. the proportion of younger people (aged 16 to 24) and older people (aged 55 and over) in the work force will decline. and a changing work forceseem particularly potent (Dumaine. Fully 22% are expected to be immigrants (Glickman. Johnston & Packer. interests. 1987).42% are expected to be native White women and only 15% are expected to be native White men. 1984. shipbuilders. Even if organizations are willing to train new employees. 1986). 1987. 1988).whereas more than 3 million people joined the labor force in 1978. but between 1991 and 1995. 1986). so competition among employers will increase. Davis & Associates. Such statistics are alarming when compared to projections indicating that the levels of various skills needed for new jobs are likely to increase in the future (see Johnston & Packer. Mills.line criteria against which an organization evaluates its performance. "Needed. economic conditions. the labor force grew an average of 2.1 %. regardless of whether they are for-profit organizations.Nelton. At a time when many of its training manuals required 12th-grade 224 reading skills." 1987). These create complexity and uncertainty for organizations. less than 2 million people are projected to enter the labor force each year from 1987 to 1995. Dyer & Heyer. and values of tomorrow's work force. the changing demographics signal changes in the abilities. the task may be difficult. For example. Additionally. In addition. Comparatively. Theethnic mix of the labor force is also changing. Navy has found. McKersie. skills. the rate of growth will drop to 1. make the need for planning evident. The changing characteristics of the work force. A consideration of how the values of workers who will soon make up the majority of the work force differ from those who will begin to leave it suggests additional changes on the horizon. machinists. Greater emphasis on self-evaluation and a reduction in loyalty and dedication to employers makes it more difficult for organizations to assume they can move employees around anywhere and anytime (Maccoby. as the U. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that ethnic minorities willaccount for 57% of the growth in the labor force betweennow and the year 2000. Uncertainty can interfere with efficient operations. Between 1976 and 1980. mechanics. including tool-and-die makers. & Gilkey. The number of mothers in the work force with children under one year old incre ased from 42% in 1980 to 55% in 1989. but environmental forces-globalization. The changing demographics mean there will be fewer entry-level employees. 1987).S. thereby increasing the importance of human resource planning (Coates.All of these demographic projections have significant implications for managing human resources. there are many factors that account for the increased attention directed to human resource planning. 1982. increasing from 61% in 1975 to 73% in 1995. new technologies. formal planning is one common tactic used by organizations to buffer themselves from environmental uncertainty (Thompson. A decline in organizational loyalty is occurring at the . Our intention is to include the criteria considered by all types of employers. There is already evidence of growing resistance from employees to relocation. Of the approximately 25 millionworkers added to the work force between 1985 and 2000. 1967). 1986). Factors Underlying Increased Interest in Human Resource Planning Undoubtedly. People aged 25 to 54 will constitute a greater percentage of the labor force. shortages of many types of skilled workers are imminent. and engineers ("Early Retirement." 1988. Greenhalgh. some of the activities that industrial/organizational (I/O) psychologists are engaged in as they seek to improve the competitiveness of organizations through effective human resource planning. 1987. bricklayers.

who grew up during the Vietnam war. but for the older generation it means treating people equally ("Work Attitudes. Changes in the work force are just one aspect of the environment stimulating the need for human resource planning. Throughout our discussion.. Using the same conventions that line managers use to distinguish between activities with differing time horizons is one step human resource planners can take to facilitate integration of their efforts with the needs of the business (Hennecke. Ac. intermediate term (two to three years). 1984. A Model for Describing Human Resource Planning In the remainder of this article. and (d) monitoring and evaluating these programs (Burack. Therefore. In separating our discussion of the phases of human resource planning activities according to three time hoFigure 1 Dynamic Linkages Among Components of a Fully Integrated System of Business and Human Resource Planning CONTENT OF HR SYSTEM . and to forecast future human resource supply. they pose significant challenges for human resource planning and contribute to its changing status during the past two decades. 1988. (c) designing and implementing programs that will enable the organization to achieve its human resource objectives. this study found that for the younger generation. The demographic changes are somewhat predictable. Although the four phases of human resource planning are conceptually the same regardless of the time horizon. Finally. 1981). given business plans for the future.same time that workers are feeling insecure about their employment (Hay Group. employees from the younger generation. These correspond to the typical time horizons for business planning. "fairness" means allowing people to be different. pp. Younger employees believe people should advance as quickly as their competence permits. we describe four phases of human resource planning: (a) gathering and analyzing data to forecast expected human resource demand. 1988). there are practical differences in the operationalization of the four phases as the time horizon is extended. A recent study comparing the work values of those over 40 years old with those under 40 years old suggested other types of changes for which organizations must prepare. We begin with the shorter term planning horizon because historically the activities of many I/O psychologists have been carried out for the purpose of achieving shorter term objectives.g. we describe the activities related to planning for each time horizon separately and in turn. we describe the activities engaged in by human resource planners in leading organizations. 1986) and many of the other external changes described elsewhere in this issue (e. As a result. and long term (more than three years). (b) establishing human resource objectives. do not trust authority as much as do members of the older generation. 1978). Walker. Migliore. Odiorne. 1984. as is described near the end of this article. by Offermann & Gowing.As organizations and I/O psychologists began to recognizethe potential benefits of engaging in longer term planning. The younger generation thinks work should be fun. who are products of the World War II era. many I/O psychologists are now engaged in activities designed to prepare organizations for the 21st century. beginning with short-term planning. whereas older workers believe that experience is the necessary road to promotion. 1986." 1986). For example. consideration of longer term issues became more common. however.February 1990 • American Psychologist tivities related to the four phases of human resource planning are described for three different time horizons: short term (up to one year). whereas the older generation sees work as a duty and vehicle for financial support. but when they are considered in combination with changing technology (see Davis & Associates.95-108).

Early phases (e. Figure 1 includes arrows to illustrate (a) how longer term objectives can influence shorter term planning (dotted-line arrows).MR PLANNING ACTIVITIES TIME NORIZDI Projected CEonmuipreotnimtiveen tSatl rCaotnedgiytions Life Cycle Stage Industry Sector Projected Assess NO Enuironmental Conditions Demand S -Competitive Strategy Supply -Life Cycle Stage -industry Sector 4 Assess OR Develop Demand V Objectives Supply February 1990 • American Psychologist Develop Objectives Projected Assess HR Develop Enuironmental Conditions Demand 8 Objectives Competitive Strategy Supply Life Cycle Stage -industry Sector rizons..g. the evaluation results obtained for shorter term programs often lead to reevaluation of longer term proDesign & Evaluate Long Term . as is shown in Figure 1. demand and supply forecasts) serve as inputs to later phases (e. For example. setting objectives). organizations can-learn-from the results generated during the evaluation phase and then apply what is learned to make adjustments in objectives and programs. The arrows connecting planning activities for different time horizons are important to note because they emphasize that planning for one time horizon typically has implications for another. long-term planning almost always prompts the development of programs that need to be implemented in the short term and intermediate term.. (b) how shorter term evaluation results can influence projections about future human resources and programs designed to meet future demands. and (c) how the results achieved through the implementation of human resource programs can influence business plans. planning activities within a time horizon are linked together into a dynamic system. we do not mean to suggest that organizations segregate their planning activities in this fashion. The reality is that organizations must integrate their activities across the four planning phases as well across all three time horizons. As the feed-forward and feed-back arrows connecting the four phases of planning illustrate.g. Equally important. In addition. In addition to the arrows linking the four phases of planning within each time frame.

Human resource objectives follow logically from consideration of any discrepancies between demand and supply. Supply refers to both the number and characteristics of people available for those particular jobs. it is essential that an organization's top executives have a fully articulated vision for the future.. abilities. and training programs) to meet shortterm organizational needs. in order for a clear linkage to exist between human resource planning and strategic business planning.. recruitment. The ideal is to have full integration among all types of human resource planning activities as well as integration between human resource and business planning (Walker. Forecasting Demand and Supply In a short-term time horizon. ideally. been designed with an understanding of how the short-term objectives are linked to the achievement of longer term objectives. or experience) of people needed for particular jobs at a given point in time and at a particular place.Implement Outcomes (3+ Years) Programs Design & Evaluate Implement Outcomes Programs III Intermediate-Term (2-3 Years) Design li Evaluate Short-Term I mplement Outcomes (1 Year) Programs 225 jections about the availability of human resources. an aeronautics company engaged in a recruitment campaign to hire 100 engineers should have a clear understanding of how this hiring goal will help the company achieve longterm goals such as becoming the world's most innovativecompany in that industry.g. selection systems.g. Such activities generally involve an element of planning in that they are future-oriented to some extent. 1988). Demand refers to the number and characteristics (e. demand and supply of human resources can be predicted with some certainty. which has been communicated and accepted by managers throughout the organization. Salient questions are "What jobs need to be filled (or vacated) during the next 12 months?" and "How and where will we get people to fill (or vacate) those jobs?" What jobs need to be filled and vacated? Answering the demand question involves predicting . Short-Term Human Resource Planning Many I/O psychologists work on activities related to designingand implementing programs (e. as well as the top level managers it will need in 10 to 15 years. This hypothetical company also might have a college recruiting drive designed to find 75 college graduates to enter a training program in recognition of the fact that a growing company needs to prepare for the middle managers it will need 5 to 7 years hence. For example. pay levels. which in turn may prompt adjustments in programs designed to meet longer term needs. Even projects for which objectives are expected to be achieved in as little time as a few months have. As this hypothetical example highlights. skills.

and which new jobs will be created.who will leave jobs and create vacancies.. 1988). simply finding people with the needed skills and abilities is likely to be a top priority. 1979. increasing the length of time that desirable employees stay with the organization. Examples of short-term human resource objectives include increasing the number of people who are attracted to the organization and apply for jobs (increase the applicant pool). Establishing Objectives With a short-time horizon. How and where will we get people to fill and vacate jobs? The first step in answering this question-the supply question-involves determining the desired characteristics of employees who fill (or vacate) the jobs of interest. Mowday. Selection programs are developed for making hiring decisions. cyclical fluctuations in demand for their products or services. and to retain employees. The particular characteristics of current and potential employees that are inventoried and tracked by human resource planners are influenced by the nature of the organization and the environment in which it operates. Such objectives can generally be achieved in a straightforward way by applying state-of-the-art human resource management techniques and working with line managers to ensure agreement with and understanding of the program objectives. although making predictions about precisely which positions are likely to become vacant is less precise. Behavioral theories of the causes of turnover (e. salary level) associated with employees become more salient. The process of discussion increases the accuracy of supply and demand forecasts and facilitates the establishment of human resource objectives (see Schuler. Mobley.g. Design and Implementation of Short-Term Programs The technical skills of I/O psychologists are often applied to short-term program design and implementation.. Porter. Hand. Performance appraisal systems identify performance deficiencies to be corrected and competencies to be rewarded. etc. Compensation systems are designed to attract new employees. and helping current and newly hired employees quickly develop the skills needed by the organization. decreasing the length of time that undesirable employees stay with the organization. For example. for human resource planners in growing organizations. Griffeth. job satisfaction) also help I/O psychologists and human resource planners predict how many currently filled positions are likely to become vacant. For February 1990 • American Psychologist example.. to motivate people to perform well. Predictions about how many and what types of jobs will be eliminated or created in the short term generally follow directly from business plans submitted by line managers. attracting a different mix of applicants (with different skills. recruiting programs are used to influence the size and quality of the applicant pool. Such information can produce useful predictions when the organizational unit of interest is large. in different locations. & Steers. One method for predicting both vacancies and job growth is to project historical trends into the future. 1982) 226 combined with employee surveys designed to assess attitudinal predictors of turnover (e. Even when these activities are designed to . For planners in mature and declining organizations. the costs (e. improving the qualifications of new hires.Then the availability of those characteristics in the organization's current work force and in the external labor market must be assessed. which jobs will be eliminated. This is particularly relevant for organizations affected by regular.). especially if work-force reductions are needed. Thus it is important for the human resource planner to know the business needs and characteristics of the organization. & Meglino. Training programs emphasize developing skills for use in the near future.g. This knowledge is gained by human resource planners meeting with line managers to discuss their business plans as well as their human resource needs.g. objectives are often easy to state in quantifiable terms.

vice-president and general manager of the Barden Corporation. Coopers & Lybrand employs successful minority business people in the community to help recruit minority applicants'' and to serve as mentors. February 1990 • American Psychologist As the labor pool shrinks. much more energy will have to be directed toward recruiting efforts to increase the number of job applicants because only by attracting a large pool of applicants can selection ratios be kept low. a shortage of qualified entry-level job applicants (Johnston & Packer. and so forth. but to do so would require them to increase their hourly work force by a net of about 125 employees in one year. read Material Safety Data sheets. A special intensive course was developed in cooperation with our training unit. however. All students are on our payroll and meet with a Berlitz instructor four hours a day for 15 consecutive work days during working hours. March 8. Giant Food. Brush. small marginal gains in test validity will have less economic utility. but nonzero. selection ratios will tend to become larger. Supervisors are impressed. Inc. a major hurdle to their immediate success was their lack of fluency in English. 1989) This example illustrates a problem that organizations will face increasingly in the near future. McDonald's Corporation has emerged as a leader in the recruitment of older employees. This demographic change is likely to mean that organizations will begin to shift the focus of their short-term human resource programs. personal communication. It is important to note that such efforts to broaden . March 8. the combined forces of equal employment opportunity (EEO) legislation and the abundant supply of new entrants into the labor force were congruent with human resource activities aimed at improving the ability of organizations to select employees on the basis of their job-related skills and abilities. Although there were many immigrants from a variety of different countries who were interested in employment.. Past experiences had taught Barden that foreign immigrants often became excellent employees.5%. newcomers must not only master the basic "Garden" vocabulary. The effect has been electric. 1987). and they must also master basic shop mathematics.achieve short-term objectives and are expected to have relatively immediate pay-offs. And the word is getting out to the community with positive results. described how short-term human resource planning efforts helped his organization achieve its strategic goals (Brush.. has a mobile recruiting office-a Winnebago van that is a self-contained recruitment center that seeks out job applicants. We asked Personnel to investigate how we might teach these people enough English to pay their way. but they must be able to look up standard operating procedures. During the past 20 years... Brush described the problem and the solution. validity can have economic utility when selection ratios are sufficiently low. and use of selection "tests" of all sorts.by visiting schools. which it does by using television commercials and formal relationships with senior citizen organizations. This is because even tests with relatively low. they can serve to help an organization achieve its longer term goals. at a time when the local unemployment rate was only 2. like this: To begin to be functioning. personal communication. qualified Barden employees. Examples of innovative' recruiting programs are already plentiful. In order for investments in the development and use of sophisticated selection 'methods to yield economic returns. As a consequence. . 1989): Barden realized it had an opportunity to significantly increase its business.. The upshot was this: We retained Berlitz. namely. validation. Donald K. Organizations benefitted from investing in the design. The confidence level of the students has soared as they have tried out their new language ability. organizations may conclude that their resources are better invested in training efforts designed to prepare those few who are available. (Brush. relative to the past. measurement processes and blueprint reading. shopping centers. If small selection ratios cannot be maintained..

Intermediate-Term Human Resource Planning As we have noted. 1989). For example. Such evaluation studies (validity studies) benefit employers because they serve to monitor the objective of getting the right people in the right job.g. . especially large ones. Whether such scrutiny will continue is somewhat uncertain. however. Wards Cove Packing Atonia.. Because short-term planning objectives are generally stated in terms that are relatively easy to quantify (e. given recent Supreme Court decisions (e. selection programs in particular have been closely scrutinized to ensure that employers base their selection decisions on characteristics of applicants that are job related. 1989. there is little uncertainty about which skills and how many people will be needed. Boudreau & Berger.. As the focus ofplanning moves from short term to intermediate term. and motivation of employees help reduce uncertainty byensuring that a sufficient number of people with the required characteristics and skills are available at all levels in the organizations. human resource planning for the more distant future quickly raises the question. the effectiveness criteria were almost exclusivelybehavioral' (e. in part because numerous federal and state laws prohibit some forms of discrimination. and some types of program evaluations are actuallycommon in large organizations. selection. AT&T 1989.intermediate term programs designed to ensure that nontraditional new hires are effective and can be retained. that is. "What will be available?" Consequently. Thus.will we need?" is less easily answered and so becomes more dominant... . 1986). but line management support for human resource programs can be difficult to achieve if the expected resultss of such programs are not translated into the language of business. rapid and ongoing changes in today's business environment mean that the future cannot be easily anticipated by simply projecting past trends.g. and performance levels of employees). Martin v. when programs for selection. Patterson v. Evaluating Short-Term Human Resource Programs As is true for any type of program evaluation. 1985) and human resource cost assessment techniques (e.g... With continuing advancements in utility analysis techniques (e.g.227 ogists. this phase involves assessing how well objectives were achieved. McLean Credit Union. "How can we determine what will be needed and what will be available?" In other words. and it is relatively easy to predict supply. Such criteria need no defense to be accepted by psychologists. to assess empirically the relationship between an applicant's characteristics (e. For intermediate-term planning. more technical attention must be given to the problem of forecasting. However. abilities) and job performance. Human resource programs for the recruitment. I/O psychologists in organizational settings are being freed to deal more extensively with intermediate-term and longer term human resource planning issues. and motivation were evaluated by I/O psychol.. Validity studies also serve a scientific function by providing valuable data to researchers interested in improving our understanding of the factors that influence human performance. the question "What. dollars. it is becoming more feasible to build convincing economic arguments in supportof human resource programs.the pool of applicants often' require coordinated. training. Wilks.When the planning horizon is short. job satisfaction and commitment). systematic evaluation of human resource programs to meet short-term organizational needs is quite feasible. there is also more uncertainty related to the question. Lorance v. Cascio.. planning is used by organizations to buffer production or service delivery processes from sources of uncertainty. rather than having to spend energy arguing for resources to conduct short-term programs. performance and turnover) or attitudinal (e. numbers of applicants. 1989.g. training.g.g. Until very recently. Legal regulations have prompted many organizations. numbers of hires.

demand and forecasting supply both must be addressed before objectives can be established and programs developed. It is even possible for some organizations to quantify the expected values of variables in their models. which means they can use statistical forecasting techniques such as regression analysis. It does have February 1990 • American: Psychologist . the percentage of the market that the organization is likely to be able to serve. several experts take turns presenting theirforecasts and assumptions. human resource planners are involved in these stages of estimation and revision to ensure an integrated approach to planning. Lewis. A moresophisticated method of judgmental forecasting is the Delphi technique. & Niehaus. In a Delphi "meeting" (which need not be face-to-face). This process continues until a viable composite forecast emerges. Hoagland. and sales levels. 1983).. see Charnes. 1978). For firms operating in unstable environments. Organizations operating in fairly stable environments may be able to construct models that include most of the major factors likely to determine demand for up to three years into the future. Dyer. The composite may represent specific projections or a range of projections. Predicting outputs requires considering factors such as future demands from the marketplace for the products and services that the organization provides. Forecasting Intermediate-Term' Demand In order to forecast the numbers and qualities of people who will be needed to perform the jobs that will exist in the organization's intermediate-term future (in two to three years). and the different countries in which the organization expects to operate (Dumaine. Estimates of staffing needs are made by middle. attempt to predict organizational outputs. interaction between the human resource planner and line managers iseven more critical for making accurate demand and supply forecasts. The task of formulating plans that specify the intended future outputs (in terms of quantity. The outputs that an organization intends to produce or deliver. the availability and nature of new technologies that may affect the amounts and types of products or services that can be offered. the twin problems. who then make revisions in their own forecasts. such as those that arise during human resource planning. 1980. it is understandable that judgmental techniques are more commonly used than statistical techniques (Kahales. even threeyear predictions' are likely to be highly uncertain because both the variables and their expected values are difficult to specify accurately by relying on historical data. and location) of the organization is usually the responsibility of middle-level line managers. Human resource planners must then translate these objectives for outputs into predictions about the amount and the nature of jobs that employees will need to perform in order to produce the desired outputs.g.-A simple type of judgmental forecasting is managerial estimation. such as expected production. & Mahoney. and stochastic modeling to forecast human demand (e. time-series analysis. of forecasting. depending on the experts' positions. With increased uncertainty. The Delphi technique appears to be particularly useful for generating solutions to unstructured and complex questions. volume. An intermediary passes each expert's forecast and assumptions to the others. strategic planners. which is a decision-mak-g ing method designed to maximize the benefits and minimize the dysfunctional aspects of group decision making. Cooper. in combination with the technology that the organization intends to use to generate the outputs. 1989). dictate the human resource needs of the organzation. & Leavitt.and lower-level line managers who pass them up to top managers for further revisions to form an overall demand forecast (Walker. Increasingly. 1980). Milkovich. Predicting future human resource demands requires (a) having an accurate model of the factors that will influence demand and (b) being able to predict the state of all the major variables in that model. Given the complexity of statistical forecasting.As in short-term human resource planning. Pazer. type. however.

regardless of the particular model used. Both managerial estimates and the Delphi technique typically focus on forecasting the number of employees that is likely to be needed. two basic techniques help forecast internal labor supply-judgmental and statistical. Markov analysis.February 1990 • American Psychologist over. Miller. For example. Forecasting Intermediate-Term Supply Supply forecasts can be derived from both internal and external sources of information. On the replacement chart the incumbents are listed directly under the job title. As an indication of the fact that I/O psychologists are now more often dealing with problems of intermediateterm planning. 1978). Present performance levels.limitations. and line managers must accept the predictions as reasonable if they are to provide their support during the implementation phases of human resource programs. February 9. Piskor & Dudding. Because job analysis results are the foundation on which most human resource programs are built (Page & Van De Vroot. providing a rough estimate of the "bench strength" of the organization. 1988). As with forecasting demand. Annoni. 1988. job analysis is used to determine the qualities that employees need in order to perform currently existing jobs. Rapid technological changes mean jobs in the future are sure to differ from jobs in the present (Zuboff. One judgmental technique used to forecast supply is replacement planning. integrating their opinions to yield a final solution that all participants accept can be difficult (see Delbecq. and goal programming (Dyer. 1989). retirement. and they can indicate whether someone will be ready to fill the vacancy (Walker & Armes. 1980. Less attention is usually paid to the issue of the qualities (e. 1987. simulation (based on Markov analysis).1975. when experts disagree. the development of sound future-oriented job analysis methodologies is a challenge that I/O psychologists must meet before they can realize their potential as contributors to the long-term effectiveness of organizations. 1972). however. however. Van de Ven. involuntary turn. the human resource planner must integrate diverse predictions in order to establish human resource objectives and design programs to achieve thoseobjectives. personal communication. but internal sources are generally most crucial and most available (Bechet & Maki.and upper-level positions. ages. Those individuals likely to fill the potential vacancies are listed directly under the incumbent. and information about the loyalty of current employees can be used to predict future vacancies caused by raids of top talent. 1989). skills and abilities) that future employees will need. The second step involves predicting how the supply is likely to change over time. Such lists can provide an organization with reasonable estimates of which positions are likely to become vacant. research efforts are underway to develop procedures for conducting future-oriented ("strategic") job analyses (Arvey. & Gustafson. Less common techniques to forecast supply are statistical techniques. Salas. Milkovich. primarily because techniques have not been widely available for predicting these (Goodstein. The first step is generating an inventory of current supply (the number of people and their skills and abilities). Nonetheless. personal communication. increasingly line managers and human resource planners jointly establish replacement charts for middle. When psychologists engage in short-term planning. 1989).g. Niehaus. 1989) and for identifying the managerial competencies that are necessary for effective performance in the future (DeLuca. Replacement charts show the names of current position occupants and the names of likely replacements. & Gialluca. renewal analysis. which include simple inventory models. Use of statistical methods for forecasting human resource supply involves two steps. Schneider & Konz. & Mahoney. 1988. and employee-initiated job changes. both steps consider . Goodstein. Consistent with the spirit of integration. February 9. 1979. 1979). 1989. 1982. Ideally. 1980)..

see Arvey & Faley. Figures describing the current work force. sophisticated techniques areavailable for directly assessing employees' skills and abilities (e.The data included information about which particular machines were used in each step of the process. the natural question that arises is whether different management practices are needed to manage service providers. promotions. who was operating the machines. 1988. Thus. The simultaneity of the production and consumption processes means that quality control cannot be achieved by the inspect-and-correct (or reject) method of performance monitoring traditionally used in manufacturing plants. high levels of employee commitment and involvement are needed. are then transformed through statistical models to predictions of future supply levels. Lawler. businesses. Instead. With more attention being directed toward service provision. Annual hiring levels.both internal and external supply sources. but it is not the only important stimulus. this issue. current supply information serves as a starting point. the cause of quality problems could be detected and corrected (Frost. in many cases. and organizational structures built around small. turnover rates. use of participative management styles. a willingness to change basic assumptions about how much power and information lower level employees should be given (see Hollander & Offermann. and the consumption of services occurs simultaneously with their production (Bowen Schneider. so a foundation exists for experimenting with job redesign.S. Consequently. To maintain control over quality. were taught how to determine whether a quality problem was being caused by a particular operator or by cular machine. by applying the principles of analysis of variance. Such determinations were possible because extensive data were stored for each item produced. In other words. both within the organization and externally. and within-firm transfers typically are considered. 1988). although in practice it is often more difficult to estimate labor supplies external to the organization. I/O psychologists have already begun to study how various personnel practices affect the involvement and commitment levels of employees. Such models require the human resource planner to provide information about how employees are likely to flow through the organization. The delivery of services differs from the production of goods in three ways: products are intangible rather than tangible. Creating conditions supportive of such employee attitudes is complex.of services. it requires careful planning and. the value of a service orientation is now being recognized by U. February 1990 • American Psychologist Because employees who deliver services must engage in self-supervision. The service provider is responsible for ensuring the quality of service' during each and every interaction with a client. quality control must occur at the point of service delivery. 1986). and whether the final product met various quality standards. Even within organizations that are primarily goods-producing. personal communication. service organizations need to control the process of service production rather than to monitor the quality of outputs (Mills & Moberg. customers are actively involved in the production. 1986). Another fundamental shift is the changing balance between goods-producing and servicerelated activities.Change in manufacturing technologies is a major stimulus for intensifying training at work. stand-alone businesses instead of large hierarchical and bureaucratic enterprises. The retraining needed to provide these skills took approximately three years and was accomplished mostly on-the-job. 1986). service providers must monitor and supervise their own behaviors. or the supply of skills and abilities available in the organization's work force can be inferred from job analyses of the jobs that current employees are performing For statistical forecasting. Gaining cooperation with organizational changes such as those just . I/O psychologists have been studying the nature of human abilities and the nature of jobs for most of this century.g. Servicerelated jobs require new management styles.. May 23. Schneider & Schmitt. 1982).

organizations have become increasingly sensitive to the importance of planning programs for dealing with the effects of lay-offs. 1988). Black. creation of transfer opportunities. General Electric invested $1 million in a program in a poor. A third major stimulus for intermediate-term human resource programs is organizational restructuring. where Minnesota high school math and science teachers team up with researchers to develop class projects (Ehrlich. 1988). Inc. It is an excellent example of an integrated effort between human resource and line managers to solve an intermediate-term planning problem. Alabama.job training programs to teach new employees the specific job skills they needed. outplacement counseling. and may never be. . which is a two-year program for juniors and seniors. employers generally relied on onthe. & Osterman. 1977). employees of the sponsoring organizations. I/O psychologists can attempt to persuade organizational leaders to adopt the perspective that organizational learning is an objective worth pursuing in the interest of long-term survival (Guzzardi. From their experiences with massive lay-offs in the past few years. sponsors a summer Teacher Academy. brings disadvantaged students from nearby schools to their company headquarters in New York City weekly during the school year to receive tutoring in reading by employees in their offices. Consistent with this perspective would be a willingness to implement programs on an experimental basis in anticipation of gaining knowledge that is valuable even if the program is ultimately not a complete success (see Staw. These programs are particularly striking because they represent large investments in people who are not yet. buy-outs. 1988). Economic conditions force downsizing. but it is particularly difficult when there is uncertainty about the pay-offs. and promotion of early retirements ("Early Retirement. 1988). Honeywell. Teams of mothers and their teenage daughters are brought to the college campus to impress them with the need for college training and to help the young women become eligible for entrance (Teltsch. Arizona State University." 1987).000 grant from AT&T. MacDuffie. Creating attitudinal and behavioral change is difficult under most conditions. but a significant number of organizations now recognize that they can begin shaping their future work force while students are still in school. In the past. Thus a significant task is convincing those top-level executives whose resources and support are needed that proposed human resource programs will be effective. Many organizations are trying to minimize the negative effects of lay-offs through redundancy planning. This involves translating the scientific evidence into a form that is both understandable and convincing. including mergers and acquisitions and the work force reductions that often follow. Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) is an example of one company that combined several of these activities with an intermediate-term planning horizon to effect a large-scale work force restructuring (see Kochan. is trying to change the Hispanic cultural pattern that discourages college for women.. American Express and Shearson Lehman Hutton began the Academy of Finance. Students then work as paid interns during the summer (Perry. Time. rural area of Lowndes County. armed with a $100.. Academy students take classes in economics and finance and attend seminars designed to socialize them into the culture of the financial services industry. The program partly pays for tutoring sessions February 1990 • American Psychologist given by the faculty of Tuskegee Institute for students in secondary school (Teltsch.noted is particularly challenging because managers' long-held beliefs about how to maximize employee performance are often brought into question. 1988). 1989). Such educational programs are illustrative of a growing realization among employers that they must begin to attend to the general educational needs of the work force in order to ensure its future productivity. Inc. Short of this. In 1982. In addition to their normal curriculum. A shortage of well-prepared new hires spurs outreach programs. job skill retraining.

the evaluation data collected to monitor the downsizing process revealed that seniority was a major criterion used by managers. One program was for counseling employees and teaching them career planning skills. intentionally choosing not to rely on seniority. including age.interpersonal dynamics. Proctor & Gamble has implemented "valuing. The task force established performance as the primary criterion to be used when making cuts. Transfer opportunities could be identified by using a computerized system for matching one's skills to available jobs facilitating the reassignment of employees within the firm. However. Hewlett. Top management gave responsibility for effecting the change to line managers at the plant level. which ensured some uniformity across different units within the corporation. DEC's worldwide manufacturing work force was decreased by 5. DEC grew rapidly. DEC's experience with the computerized. For example. there are an increasing number oftraining programs designed to sensitize supervisors and managers to the wide range of individual differences represented in the organization and the implications of such differences for organizational functioning. Managers were trained to be supportive during the job search process.) In a two-year period. & Montagno. At DEC. A task force of line managers and human resource staff developed a strategy and general guidelines for the process. DEC's senior line managers and the vice-president of human resources projected staffing needs for the next two years and determined they would need to go through a major transition (rapid lay-offs were viewed as inconsistent with the company's organizational values). 1988).'s (1988) description of DEC's experiences with a work force reduction program raises a number of interesting issues for I/O psychologists. 1988). One example is their mentor program.Packard conducts training sessions for managers to teach them about different cultures and races and about their own gender biases and training needs (Nelson-Horchler.diversity" programs throughout the company. the system was underused because managers preferred to rely on their informal networks of contacts within the company. Examples of other programs include Equitable Life Assurance Society's support groups for minorities and women. (Interestingly. and the attitudes and values associated with each of these factors. by monitoring outcomes. Knowing this. 1988).598 employees. however." The DEC example illustrates that even the most conscientious planning does not guarantee that objectives will be met. Beatty. significant opportunities are created for organizational learning. The task force also developed several training programs. Organizations must adapt to a diverse workforce. despite the policy to emphasize performancebased decisions. but underused. country of origin. which was designed to retain Black and female managers (Copeland. rather than ignore.During most of the 1970s and early 1980s. The decision not to emphasize seniority was at odds with the importance given traditionally to seniority by most unionized and nonunionized manufacturing firms as they downsize (McCune. as the DEC example illustrates. jobmatchingsystem emphasizes the importance of developing technical supports that capitalize on. ethnicity. For example. As a consequence. family situation. experienced managers might be tempted to deemphasize the monitoringof outcomes in order to reduce the visibility of program failures. Their experience with managers using seniority rather than performance as a criterion for targeting employees to be laid offemphasizes the importance of understanding perceptions of what constitutes "fair treatment. educational background. which periodically meet with the chief executive officer to discuss problems in the company . but a sudden and sharp stock price decline in October of 1983 dramatically signaled the beginning of a new era for the firm. Retraining was offered to employees who could be transferred within the company rather than laid off. Kochan et al. The radical demographic transformation of the work force means that organizations need to develop competence in managing a work force that is more diverse on many dimensions.

organizations will find themselves in the unfamiliar situation of seeking ways to relax pressures to conform and to assist employees in meeting their nonwork obligations as a strategy for increasing the organization's attractiveness to the scarce supply of labor. The first condition was more easily met when the typical employee was a man married to a nonworking spouse who could attend to family needs. nonwork roles satisfactorily. & Ekeberg. spouses. our measurement techniques do not translate easily into measures of productivity (see Camp. and children. the total labor supply is relatively low. As the work force swells with people who are members of dual-career families and people who are single heads of households. . both the ability and the willingness of employees to conform to rigid organizational demands are likely to decline.g. and(b) the supply of potential human resources is sufficiently large that employers can afford to retain only employees who do conform. Although psychologists have sophisticated measurement methods for assessing the. including their parents. see Pritchard. 1988). which inform and advise top management (Copeland. and Avon's employee councils representing various groups. even when these conflict with the behaviorsrequired to perform other. society. as is illustrated in the example of DEC.term human resource programs than evaluating short-term programs.. They are particularly interesting because they run counter to the normal tendency of organizations to manage individual differences through means such as normative pressure and sanctions intended to reduce the variance in employees' behaviors (see Katz & Kahn. Organizational attempts to manage diversity by pressuring employees to conform can be effective when (a) employees are able and willing to meet organizational demands. Programs such as these show that many organizations acknowledge the negative consequences of many of the 232 inaccurate stereotypes common in our. in addition. 1978).February 1990 • American Psychologist bell & Campbell. Another major challenge facing employers is the provision of conditions that permit employees to be fully productive at work.pertaining to them. Jones. If. Evaluating Intermediate-Term Programs I/O psychologists have spent less time evaluating intermediate. Many of the programs used by organizations to facilitate these needs are described by Zedeck and Mosier Programs such as these are designed to facilitate the organization's effective adaptation to the diverse needs of employees. partly because the intermediate time horizon encompasses more uncertainties and contingencies. I/O psychologists working in such organizations now face the challenge of applying basic research findings on perception and attitude change to the design of interventions that will maximize the benefits of work-group diversity and minimize the conflicts that often. arise. because intermediate-term programs are often larger in scope. performance levels of individuals. Only recently have I/O psychologists begun to apply aggressively their measurement skills to developing measures appropriate for larger aggregates of employees within organizations (e. the appropriate unit of analysis for evaluation is often the productivity level of an entire department or business unit. This will represent a change from using behavior control mechanisms to manage the uncertainty diversity creates to managing uncertainty by predicting variations in behavior and adapting the organization to them. while at the same time meeting the needs of their families. Also. Stuebing. 1988). 1988). Roth.

1989) pointed out that the turbulence and unpredictability of the current business environment has resulted in "a discernible trend" of substituting efforts to define more generic competencies for efforts to identify specific knowledge and skills in the specification of position requirements. Although there are many types of long-term planning efforts. long-term human resource planning (for beyond three years) is becoming critical to the effective functioning of organizations. Consider this example: "Exxon is so far ahead in the succession planning game that it has already hired its CEO for the year 2010. A. we use succession planning as our primary example of the process. The rapidly changing and highly competitive worldwide marketplace is causing firms to turn to their human resources for survival and competitiveness.February 1990 • American Psychologist nization. a major long-term business concern in organizations is "What types of managers do we need running the business into the 21st century. Organizations were planning within a model of minimal change in organization structure (internal environment) and a perceived static external environment. February 9. Goodstein (personal communication. he or she is already being challenged. Since position requirements were relatively stable and career paths reasonably well-defined. It is an activity that demands integration of the skills and knowledge of the human resource planner and all the other executives responsible for strategic planning. Position requirements could easily be extrapolated from the job descriptions of current incumbentsfactoring into these requirements those skills and abilities that the current incumbent lacked. 24). H. Although it is not public knowledge who that person is. an effective performance appraisal system coupled with opportunities for key executives to observe candidates adequately served the selection process for many companies. The key activities in succession planning are identifying . 1988. Forecasting Demand and Supply: The Challenge of Succession Planning More than ever. London. February 9. p.Progress on this task should be particularly valuable for intermediate-term and long-term human resource planning. 1989) contrasted this with "the old" technology of management succession planning. personal communication. 1986. which was largely an exercise in replacement planning. Goodstein (personal communication. Because there is a greater understanding that an organization's work force cannot be turned around on a dime. assessed and groomed for the top spot" (McManis & Leibman. and how do we make sure we have them?" (Cowherd. February 7. In describing how succession planning efforts differ now from the past. 1986). Succession planning programs are complex systems designed to safeguard the long-term health of the orga. long-term human resource planning is gaining currency. Long-Term Human Resource Planning Increasingly.

Squibb. 1986. such as those sponsored by IBM. a belief in the value of investing in human resources. Exxon. given the state of our knowledge about human performance in organizational settings. The uncertainty in predicting supply is compounded by the small numbers of people and jobs involved. development plans. 1987). particularly when a company practices a promotion-from-within policy. and providing learning experiences to develop these competencies (DeLuca.high-potential employees. Those programs known for their excellence. mentorships. 1988). greater uncertainty exists when predicting both future demand and future supply. and career planning activities that involve employees in planning and monitoring their own development (e. 1986. but orchestrating developmental experiences for large numbers of employees can be very difficult logistically because development is best accomplishedby rotating employees through many key jobs. . Because the planning horizon is so long. which changes the prediction task from one of estimating the percentage of a pool of employees who are likely to be with the company x years into the future to one of estimating the probability that a few particular individuals will still be with the company x years into the future. Staffing the upper echelons of organizations presents a number of unique challenges. 1988). 1988).. see Hall & Associates. Well-developed programs include a variety of components: selection procedures. represent large investments in integrated human resource management systems (see Mahler & Drotter. Leibowitz.g. Such programs are examples of what can be done with respect' to longterm human resource planning. and cooperation between the human resource planner and line management. and General Electric. identifying needed competencies. frequent and systematic performance reviews. Vancil. Providing developmental experiences to a greater number of employees helps reduce the uncertainty of forecastedupply (Leibowitz.

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