Overview of Indian Vegetable Oil

Industry
By
Sandeep Bajoria
CEO, Sunvin Group
Chairman, Globoil – India Organising Committee
At
The XVIII International Conference “FAT-AND-OIL – 2019”
October 30, Kiev, Ukraine
Table of Contents
 India Overview

 Indian Oil Seed Production Scenario

 Consumption of Edible Oils in India

 Sunflower Oil Scenario

 Conclusion

1
India Overview
India’s Global Presence
Bollywood Software / IT Yoga & Meditation
• Increasing Global • One of India’s largest • World wide adoption
Releases exports (World Yoga Day)
Highest Bollywood • Indian origin employees • Recognised by UNESCO
Grocers in overseas comprise 34% of as intangible cultural
markets Microsoft, 28% of IBM heritage
and 17% at Intel

Expatriate Diaspora Acquisitions Cuisine

• CEOs of companies • Significant outbound • Increasing global
including Arcelor Mittal, investments popularity, several
Google, Microsoft, and • Largest manufacturing Michelin star
Pepsi employer in the UK restaurants serving
Indian cuisine

2
 Macroeconomic Snapshot
 Population: 2nd largest in the world at over 1.37
billion
 Unemployment Rate: 6.1%
 GDP
USD: $2.602tn
PPP: $9.747tn
 Public Debt: 71.2% of GDP
 Forex & Gold Reserves: $437.8bn
 FDI Inflow: $44.4bn (2018-19)
 Time Zone: UTC + 05.30

Source: CIA World Fact Book and NSSO 3

 GDP Growth Rate (%)

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20
04
20 -05
05
20 -06
06
20 -07
7.9 8.1 7.7

07

3.1
20 -08
08
20 -09
09
GDP Growth
7.9 8.5

Source: GDP data by World Bank, 2019/20 GDP Forecast by Sunvin

20 -10
10
20 -11
11
5.2 5.5

20 -12
12
6.4

20 -13
13
7.4

20 -14
14
20 -15
15
20 -16
8.0 8.2

16
-
20 17
17
20 -18
18
20 -1
7.2 7.0 6.8

19 9
-2
0F
6.2

4
 Sectoral Contribution to GDP

15.87%

Agriculture
Industry
54.40% Services
29.73%

Source: Statistics Times 5

 Agriculture GDP Growth
9 8.2 8.3
8
7
GDP Growth Rate (%)

6 5.8
5.2 5.5
5 4.6
4.4 4.1
4 3.9
3 2.1 2.2
2 1.3 1.2
1.1 1.0
1 0.4
0
20 -04
20 -05
20 -06
20 -07
20 -08
20 -09
20 -10
20 -11
20 -12
20 -13
20 -14
20 -15
20 -16
20 -17

18 8
9F
20 -1
-1
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
20

 Agriculture sector growth depends heavily on

monsoons
Source: CMEI, Solvent Extractor’s Association of India (“SEA”) and Sunvin 6
Indian Oilseed Production
Scenario
 India: Production of Major Oilseeds
Item 19/20F 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16
Soybeans 9 10.5 8.3 10.5 7.1
Cotton Seed 11.75 10.25 11.8 10.75 10.7
Groundnuts 6.0 3.8 4.7 4.8 3.2
Sesame
0.68 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.73
Seed
Rapeseed 7.9 7.63 7.1 7 5.7
Sunflower
0.20 0.25 0.30 0.29 0.33
Seed
Castor Seed 1.7 1.12 1.43 1.07 1.41
Others 0.42 0.54 0.47 0.34 0.39
Total
All figures in mln MT 37.65 34.71 34.73 35.08 29.56
Source: Sunvin 7
 Oilseed Productivity
Groundnut – 64% of World Average

Soybean – 43% of World Average

Rapeseed – 53% of World Average

Sesame seed – 72% of World Average

Source: SEA 8
Consumption of Edible Oil in
India
 Demand, Production & Import
25 22.75 23.38
20.74 20.81
20 19.17
15.07 15.45 15.88
14.57
Million MT

15 14.51

10 7.3
6.3 7.5
5.67
4.6
5

0
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 E
Disappearence Import Domestic Availability

 India is importing 2/3rd of its consumption of vegetable oils with

domestic production supplying the balance 1/3rd amount

Source: Sunvin 9
 Imports of Edible Veg Oil
Item 19/20F 18/19E 17/18 16/17 15/16

Palm Oil 9.8 9.55 8.701 9.293 8.443

Soybean Oil 3.25 3.05 3.047 3.316 4.235

Sunflower Oil 2.6 2.4 2.525 2.169 1.516

Rapeseed Oil 0.10 0.591 0.241 0.293 0.377

Others -- -- 0.003 0.006 -

Total 15.75 15.59 14.52 15.08 14.57

All figures in mn MT

 Data is for the Indian Oil Year beginning 1 Nov and ending 31 Oct
Source: Sunvin, SEA 1
 India Import Duty Structure on Veg
Oils
Item Crude Edible Refined Current Tariff
Oils Edible Oils Value US$/
(Incl Cess) (Incl Cess) MT
(w.e.f 15 Oct
2019)

Soybean Oil 38.5% 49.5% 730

RBD Palmolein -- 55.0% 566

Crude Palm Oil 44.0% -- 534

Sunflower Oil 38.5% 49.5% --

Rape/Mustard Oil 38.5% 49.5% --

 Import duty is calculated on Tariff Value which is announced every fortnight.

 For Malaysian Origin RBD Palm olein, the import duty is 45% and Safeguard Duty is 5% (w.e.f. 04 Sep 2019)
 Social Welfare Cess 10% is added in the base import duty.

Source: Sunvin 1
 Port-wise Edible Oil Imports
MY2017-18 (Nov-Oct)
Item Palm Oil Sunflower Rapeseed Soybean Total
Oil Oil Oil
Budge Budge 2,58,663 -- -- -- 2,58,663
Chennai 7,38,890 5,77,240 -- 0 13,16,130
Haldia 13,23,116 19,740 -- 7,02,508 20,45,364
JNPT 7,50,544 4,44,066 -- 2,31,845 14,26,455
Kakinada 3,35,327 4,08,118 -- -- 7,43,445
Kandla 26,80,904 65,444 59,171 12,71,673 40,77,192
KP 11,23,751 3,12,400 -- -- 14,36,151
Mangalore 4,59,123 2,48,645 -- -- 7,07,768
Mumbai 50,640 -- -- -- 50,640
Mundra 2,88,582 1,00,950 -- 4,72,196 8,61,728
Tuticorin 3,95,325 -- -- -- 3,95,325
Others 2,25,815 15,000 -- 21,805 2,62,620
Total 86,30,680 21,91,603 59,171 27,00,027 1,35,81,481

All figures in MT
Source: SEA
Note: Data reflects imports During 1 November 2017 - 30 Sep 2018 1
 Consumption Long Term Projection
Year Popull. Consumptio Consumptio Consumptio
Growth n @ 3% n @ 4% n @ 5%
@ Growth Growth Growth
1.50%

Bn Per Mn Per Mn Per Mn

Capit MT Capit MT Capit MT
a (kg) a (kg) a (kg)

2019 1.37 17.0 23.2 18.0 24.6 19.1 26.16

9 6
2021 1.41 18.0 25.3 19.5 27.4 21.0 29.61
8 9
2023 1.45 19.0 27.5 21.1 30.5 23.2 33.64
5 9
2025 1.49 20.2 30.0 22.8 33.9 25.6 38.14
9 7
Source: SEA
Note: Excluding Non-edible Oils 1
Sunflower Oil Scenario
World Sunflower Seed & Products
Supply
Country Marketing Oilseed Meal Oil
Year

2019-2 2018-1 2017-1 2019-2 2018-19 2017-18 2019-20 2018-19 2017-18

0 9 8 0

Argenti (Mar-Feb) 3,654 3,825 3,538 1,410 1,420 1,285 1,415 1,430 1,300
na

Russia (Sep-Aug) 13,800 12,710 10,362 5,400 4,823 4,167 5,400 4,853 4,192

Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,750 1,800 1,550 1,183 1,183 1,128 935 935 892

Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 15,200 15,000 13,700 6,100 6,112 5,679 6,400 6,364 5,913

EU (Oct-Sep) 9,800 9,513 10,128 4,779 4,752 4,806 3,739 3,718 3,760

Other 8,677 8,569 8,540 2,907 2,880 2,767 2,460 2,434 2,383

Total 52,881 51,417 47,818 21,779 21,170 19,832 20,349 19,734 18,440

All figures in ‘000 MT

1
 Million MT

0
5
10
15
20
25
20
06
-
20 07
07
-
20 08
Exports

08
-
20 09
09
-
20 10
10
-
20 11
11
-
20 12
12
-

Production
20 13
13
-
20 14
14
-
20 15
Exports 15
-
20 16
16
-
20 17
17
-
20 18
18
World Sunflower Oil Production &

20 -19
19
-2
0
E
1
 Indian Sunflower Oil Imports
4.00
3.5
3.50 3.25
3
3.00 2.6
2.525 2.4
2.50 2.169
2.00
1.51 1.54 1.516
Million MT

1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00

E
14

15

16

17

18

F
19

3
-

-2

-2

-2

-2
13

14

15

16

17

-
18

19

20

21

22
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
 Indian sunflower oil imports are likely to be 2.6 mln MT in 2019-20 and
are expected to grow to 3.5 mln MT by 2022-23
Source: Sunvin
Note: Figures presented are for the Indian Oil Year beginning 1 Nov and ending 31 Oct 1
India Monthly Sunflower oil imports
and stocks (in MT)
Month Import End Month Stocks
Nov18 165,550 121,347

Dec18 235,824 132,546

Jan19 200,027 133,203

Feb19 200,358 135,050

Mar19 297,887 186,244

Apr19 242,462 212,394

May19 130,634 189,787

Jun19 161,540 142,255

Jul19 200,467 171,870

Aug19 230,023 154,987

Sep19 126,831 152,666

Source : SEA and Sunvin 17

 India Sunflower Oil Import Profile
(In mlnT)
*Russia targeting 25% of Sun oil market share in India
MY (01 Nov – 31 Oct)
Origins MY 2018-19 MY2019-20
Ukraine 2.150 1.725
Russia 0.100 0.650
Argentina 0.150 0.225
Total 2.40 2.60

• Ukraine continued to be the largest Sun Oil Exporter to India but market
share is set to decline in MY2019/20 due to tough competition from
Russia and Argentina.

• Russia is set to increase its sun oil market share in India on back of
larger export availability and higher discount over competition.

• Argentina Sun oil export also seen growing on Year on Year basis but
they have relatively smaller crop in compare to Ukraine and Russia. 1
. 8
Top 10 Sunflower Oil Importers In
India
 Adani Wilmar Ltd
 Gemini Edibles
 Kaleesuwari Ref Pvt Ltd
 Cargill India Ltd
 Lohiya Edibles
 MK Agro tech Pvt Ltd
 KTV foods Ltd
 Frigorifico
 Parakh foods Ltd
 Liberty Oil Mills Ltd
1
9
 US$ / MT

Source: Sunvin
450
550
650
750
850
950
10/2014 1050
01/2015
04/2015
07/2015
10/2015
01/2016
04/2016

CNF CDSBO
07/2016
10/2016
01/2017

CIF SFO
04/2017
07/2017
10/2017
CNF CPO
01/2018
04/2018
07/2018
CNF CRSO

10/2018
01/2019
04/2019
07/2019
10/2019
Last 5 years Price Comparison

2
 Price Outlook
Crude Sunflower Seed Oil
Forward FOB (USD / MT)
Curve Origins

Ukraine Russia Argentina

Nov/Dec 660 – 680 647 – 667 648 – 668

JFM 652 – 682 637 – 662 645 – 665
AMJ 657 – 687 642 – 672 635 – 655

JAS 667 – 697 652 – 682 645 – 675

Due to record Sunflower seed availability at Black Sea regions this season,
Sun oil prices are likely to stay in narrow range through out the year. Low
prices and adequate export supplies will encourage more consumption in
destination markets. 2
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