SIMULATION of

p and q Impact of "p" and

103,000,000 N 25000000
0.0039 p
0.753 q

results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2

20000000
Year Sales Cum. Sales
1989 0 0
1990 401,700 401,700
1991 701,434 1,103,134 15000000
1992 1,219,161 2,322,295

SALES
1993 2,101,904 4,424,199
1994 3,572,772 7,996,971
1995 5,924,702 13,921,673 10000000
1996 9,413,520 23,335,193
1997 13,901,200 37,236,393
1998 18,158,867 55,395,259
1999 19,464,483 74,859,743 5000000
2000 15,510,223 90,369,966
2001 8,393,490 98,763,455
2002 3,075,426 101,838,882
2003 868,994 102,707,876 0
r
2004 220,485 102,928,361 a 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Ye 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 2
2005 54,186 102,982,547
2006 13,208 102,995,755 YEAR
2007 3,213 102,998,968
2008 781 102,999,749
2009 190 102,999,939
2010 46 102,999,985
2011 11 102,999,996
2012 3 102,999,999
2013 1 103,000,000
2014 0 103,000,000
2015 0 103,000,000
2016 0 103,000,000
2017 0 103,000,000
2018 0 103,000,000
2019 0 103,000,000
2020 0 103,000,000
2021 0 103,000,000
2022 0 103,000,000
2023 0 103,000,000
2024 - 103,000,000
2025 - 103,000,000
2026 - 103,000,000
2027 - 103,000,000
2028 - 103,000,000
2029 - 103,000,000
2030 - 103,000,000
2031 - 103,000,000
2032 - 103,000,000
2033 - 103,000,000
2034 - 103,000,000
2035 - 103,000,000
2036 - 103,000,000
2037 - 103,000,000
2038 - 103,000,000
2039 - 103,000,000
2040 - 103,000,000
2041 - 103,000,000
2042 - 103,000,000
2043 - 103,000,000
2044 - 103,000,000
2045 - 103,000,000
 Impact of "p" and "q"
120000000

100000000

80000000

60000000

40000000
Sales Cum. Sales

20000000

0
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

YEAR
25000000 120000000

100000000
20000000

80000000

15000000

60000000
Sales Cum. Sales
10000000
40000000

5000000
20000000

0 0
Year 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994199519961997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032004
 SIMULATION of
p and q Impact of "p" and "
103,000,000 N
2500000
0.0039 p
0.0753 q

results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2 2000000

Year Sales Cum. Sales
1989 0 0
1990 401,700 401,700
1991 430,263 831,963 1500000
1992 460,596 1,292,560

SALES
1993 492,767 1,785,327
1994 526,842 2,312,169
1995 562,880 2,875,050 1000000
1996 600,936 3,475,985
1997 641,052 4,117,037
1998 683,265 4,800,302
1999 727,596 5,527,898 500000
2000 774,052 6,301,950
2001 822,625 7,124,575
2002 873,286 7,997,861
2003 925,984 8,923,845
0
2004 980,644 9,904,489
2005 1,037,164 10,941,653 a r 91 94 9 7 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21
Ye 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
2006 1,095,411 12,037,063 YEAR
2007 1,155,221 13,192,285
2008 1,216,397 14,408,681
2009 1,278,703 15,687,384
2010 1,341,868 17,029,252
2011 1,405,582 18,434,834
2012 1,469,499 19,904,333
2013 1,533,233 21,437,566
2014 1,596,366 23,033,932
2015 1,658,446 24,692,378
2016 1,718,994 26,411,371
2017 1,777,508 28,188,879
2018 1,833,470 30,022,349
2019 1,886,354 31,908,703
2020 1,935,633 33,844,336
2021 1,980,792 35,825,128
2022 2,021,332 37,846,461
2023 2,056,789 39,903,249
2024 2,086,735 41,989,984
2025 2,110,796 44,100,780
2026 2,128,657 46,229,437
2027 2,140,072 48,369,509
2028 2,144,869 50,514,379
2029 2,142,959 52,657,337
2030 2,134,332 54,791,670
2031 2,119,066 56,910,736
2032 2,097,320 59,008,056
2033 2,069,333 61,077,389
2034 2,035,415 63,112,804
2035 1,995,945 65,108,749
2036 1,951,359 67,060,108
2037 1,902,137 68,962,244
2038 1,848,798 70,811,042
2039 1,791,885 72,602,927
2040 1,731,955 74,334,881
2041 1,669,567 76,004,448
2042 1,605,275 77,609,723
2043 1,539,615 79,149,338
2044 1,473,101 80,622,440
2045 1,406,217 82,028,656
 Impact of "p" and "q"
90000000

80000000

70000000

60000000

50000000

40000000
Sales Cum. Sales
30000000

20000000

10000000

0
03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
YEAR
 SIMULATION of
p and q
N= [-b - sqrt(b^2-4ca)]/2c = 103,000,000 N
p= a/N = 0.359 p Hi
q= b+p = 0.0043 q Low

results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2

Year Predicted Sales Predicted Cum. Sales
1989 0 0
1990 36,977,000 36,977,000
1991 23,804,177 60,781,177
1992 15,263,686 76,044,863
1993 9,762,468 85,807,331
1994 6,233,756 92,041,088
1995 3,976,359 96,017,447
1996 2,534,726 98,552,173
1997 1,615,070 100,167,243
1998 1,028,806 101,196,048
1999 655,240 101,851,288
2000 417,272 102,268,560
2001 265,710 102,534,270
2002 169,191 102,703,461
2003 107,729 102,811,190
2004 68,593 102,879,783
2005 43,674 102,923,457
2006 27,808 102,951,265
2007 17,705 102,968,970
2008 11,273 102,980,243
2009 7,178 102,987,421
2010 4,570 102,991,991
2011 2,910 102,994,901
2012 1,853 102,996,753
2013 1,180 102,997,933
2014 751 102,998,684
2015 478 102,999,162
2016 304 102,999,466
2017 194 102,999,660
2018 123 102,999,784
2019 79 102,999,862
2020 50 102,999,912
2021 32 102,999,944
2022 20 102,999,964
2023 13 102,999,977
2024 8 102,999,986
2025 5 102,999,991
2026 3 102,999,994
2027 2 102,999,996
2028 1 102,999,998
2029 1 102,999,998
2030 1 102,999,999
2031 0 102,999,999
2032 0 103,000,000
2033 0 103,000,000
2034 0 103,000,000
2035 0 103,000,000
2036 0 103,000,000
2037 0 103,000,000
2038 0 103,000,000
2039 0 103,000,000
2040 0 103,000,000
2041 0 103,000,000
2042 0 103,000,000
2043 0 103,000,000
2044 0 103,000,000
2045 0 103,000,000
 Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovations
Varying Values of "p" and "q" (p>>q)

40000000 120000000

35000000
100000000
30000000
80000000
Sales

25000000

20000000 60000000

15000000
40000000
10000000
20000000
5000000

0 0
Y1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
e99999999999000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
a89999999999000000000011111111112222222222333333333344444
r 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4Year
567890123456789012345678901234

Predicted Sales Predicted Cum. Sales

 SIMULATION of
p and q ODI- Contact Lenses: Impact
87 N
10
0.01 p
0.38 q 9

results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2 8

Year Sales Cum. Sales
1989 0 0 7
1990 1 1
1991 1 2
6
1992 2 4

SALES
1993 2 6
1994 3 9 5
1995 4 12
1996 5 17 4
1997 6 23
1998 7 30 3
1999 8 38
2000 9 47 2
2001 9 56
2002 8 64 1
2003 7 70
2004 5 76
0
2005 4 80 Year 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1
2006 3 82 YEAR
2007 2 84
2008 1 85
2009 1 86
2010 0 86
2011 0 87
2012 0 87
2013 0 87
2014 0 87
2015 0 87
2016 0 87
2017 0 87
2018 0 87
2019 0 87
2020 0 87
2021 0 87
2022 0 87
2023 0 87
2024 0 87
2025 0 87
2026 0 87
2027 0 87
2028 0 87
2029 0 87
2030 0 87
2031 0 87
2032 0 87
2033 0 87
2034 0 87
2035 0 87
2036 0 87
2037 0 87
2038 0 87
2039 0 87
2040 0 87
2041 0 87
2042 0 87
2043 0 87
2044 0 87
2045 0 87
act Lenses: Impact of "p" and "q"
90

80

70

60

50

40
Sales Cum. Sales
30

20

10

0
993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
YEAR