Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Academic and Research Vice-rector

Activities guide and evaluation rubric
Phase 8 – Final project. Final evaluation

1. General description of the course

Faculty or Academic School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering

Unit
Academic Level Professional
Academic Field Disciplinary training
Course Name Theory of decisions
Course Code 212066
Course Type Theoretical Can be yes ☒ No ☐
enabled
Number of Credits 3

2. Description of the activity

Type of the Number of

Individual ☐ Collaborative ☒ 2
activity: weeks
Moment of Unit
Initial ☐ ☐ Final ☒
evaluation: Intermediate:
Evaluative score of the activity: Delivery Environment of the activity:
125 points Collaborative learning
Starting date of the activity: Deadline of the activity: Thursday, December
Friday, November 29, 2019 12, 2019
Competence to develop:

The student uses the results that are achieved with the use of Markov chains and their
probabilities in the decision making that guarantees the development and continuity of a
decision process.

Topics to develop:

Unit 1. Decisions in an environment of risk

Unit 2. Decisions under a risk environment
Unit 3. Markov decision processes

Steps, phases of the learning strategy to develop

The student must individually develop each of the exercises outlined as follows:

Step 1. In Exercise 1, the student must solve the proposed questions by decision trees,
find the expected values of the perfect and sample information are key to determine the
final efficiency in the decision making process. Take into account the probabilities and
values of the demand to go step by arming the decision trees and calculate the values
that will help you solve each of the questions in the guide.

Step 2. In Exercises 2, the student must solve by the criteria Laplace, Wald or pessimist,
optimist, Hurwicz and Savage (Cost matrix the proposed questions.) These concepts take
into account probabilities and states that are influenced by learning environments.
uncertainty, so it is recommended that you identify these variables very well because
daily life is full of them for decision making.

Step 3. In Exercises 3 and 4, the student must solve the questions raised by game theory,
remember that the goal of game theory is to present decision alternatives where it
assumes that in a fair game what a player wins his opponent must lose exactly and vice
versa, hence it is important to generate solutions that satisfy this condition of justice in
the game, to call it in some way.

Step 4. In Exercises 5 and 6, the student must solve according to the use of Markov
Chains, stable states the questions posed in such a way that the probabilities that are
generated from the succession of events of each Exercise are determined.

Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the Exercises
solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the contributions of all
the participants in the activity. To divide among the members of the collaborative groups
the proposed Exercises is not a methodology of the course, as the qualification will be
done according to the contributions presented individually.

Step 5. Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the use of
the Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed activities,
remember to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the income and results
table for the Exercises raised. In this same space you can carefully review the Guide for
the use of educational resources.

Activities to develop

Problem 1. Decisions under a risk environment:

To develop the task, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Sanderson, C. (2006). Analytical Models for Decision Making. New York, USA: McGraw-
Hill Education Editorial. Available in the knowledge environment of the course.

A company dedicated to manufacturing different turned parts must decide whether to

manufacture a new product at its main plant, or if it buys it from an outside supplier. The
profits depend on the demand of the product. Table 10 shows projected profits, in millions
of pesos.

Table 1. Decision process for the commercialization of tha

product
Low High
Demand High -
Decision average - medium -
low - demand
alternative utility utility
utility utility
demand demand
Manufacture 124 138 150 165
Subcontract 129 143 167 180
Buy 122 148 169 188
Lease 116 152 158 171
Leasing 119 131 167 172
Probabilities Ʃ = 1 0,25 0,3 0,3 0,15
Table 1. Decision alternatives according to the states of nature
According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision
Trees, respond:

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable

(F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

P(F/low) = 0,25 P(D/low) = 0,75

P(F/low average) = 0,35 P(D/ low average) = 0,65
P(F/high medium) = 0,3 P(D/ high medium) = 0,7
P(F/high) = 0,32 P(D/high) = 0,68

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

Problem 2. Decision in uncertainty:

To develop the task, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Joyce, J. (1999). The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory. Camdridge, UK: Cambridge
University Press Editorial. Available in the knowledge environment of the course.

The company is thinking of acquiring machinery with new technology to carry out its
workshop work. The purchase will be decided according to several alternatives presented
by the seller (adaptability), this to facilitate the implementation in the workshop. The
decision variables presented below represent the cost of adaptation that will arise after
acquiring the machinery and training the workers in their use. Table 11 shows the costs
in millions of currency units per technology.

Event
Does not Fits Fits
Alternative Fits well
fit acceptably successfully
Technology 1 780 810 818 860
Technology 2 880 820 855 820
Technology 3 830 875 878 900
Technology 4 630 872 812 910

Table 2. Uncertainty adaptation new technology

Determine the optimal size of the premises to be purchased, using the methods of
LAPLACE, WALD, HURWICZ AND SAVAGE. Hurwicz Alpha 0,70.
Problem 3. Decision in uncertainty:

To develop the task, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Prisner, E. (2014). Game Theory. Washington, District of Columbia, USA: Mathematical

Association of America Editorial. Available in the knowledge environment of the course.

PLAYER B
81 83 93 78 84

PLAYER A
81 78 85 85 85
83 91 80 86 81
89 83 85 93 83
85 89 88 78 83

Table 3. Game strategy data

Find the saddle point of the data given below in table 12 for players A and B.

Problem 4. Decision in uncertainty:

To develop the task, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Prisner, E. (2014). Game Theory. Washington, District of Columbia, USA: Mathematical

Association of America Editorial. Available in the knowledge environment of the course.

In order to determine the decision conditions in the market, the Game Theory will be
used, using the graphical solution of the type (2 x N) to estimate the strategy and value
of the game for the following data:

PLAYER 2
ESTRATEGY
A B
I 85 91
PLAYER 1

II 78 82
III 67 72

Table 4. Data for matrix strategy mxn

Problem 5. Markov decision problem:

To develop the task, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Ibe, O. (2013). Markov Processes for Stochastic Modeling: Massachusetts, USA: University
of Massachusetts Editorial. Available in the knowledge environment of the course.

An insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If you
have not had accidents the last two years are charged US $ 6000 (State 1); If you have
had an accident in each of the last two years you will be charged $ 6300 (State 2). If you
had accidents the first of the last two years US $ 5800 (State 3). The probabilities of the
state according to historical data of three years are:
 STATES E1 E2 E3
E1 0,25 0,35 0,40
E2 0,28 0,42 0,30
E3 0,20 0,15 0,65

Table 5. Transition matrix of Markov chains

Determine what the average payment that the company will receive according to the data
in the table.

Problem 6. Markov decision problem:

To develop the task, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Ibe, O. (2013). Markov Processes for Stochastic Modeling: Massachusetts, USA: University
of Massachusetts Editorial. Available in the knowledge environment of the course.

Suppose you get 6 types of Jeans brands in the Colombian market: Brand 1, Brand 2,
Brand 3, Brand 4, Brand 5 and Brand 6. The following table shows the odds that you
continue to use the same brand or change it.

STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6

BRAND 1 0,16 0,13 0,17 0,15 0,21 0,18
BRAND 2 0,17 0,21 0,17 0,14 0,16 0,15
BRAND 3 0,2 0,21 0,19 0,15 0,13 0,12
BRAND 4 0,13 0,2 0,19 0,2 0,13 0,15
BRAND 5 0,18 0,14 0,13 0,17 0,17 0,21
BRAND 6 0,13 0,22 0,2 0,22 0,19 0,04

Table 6. Probabilities of change and permanence in the brand

At present, brand, have the following percentages in market share respectively (20%,
25%, 15%, 15%, 20% y 5%) during week 4.

Exercise 7. Use of the practical learning environment. Collaborative activity

Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the use of the
Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed activities, remember
to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the income and results table for
the Exercises raised. In this same space you can carefully review the Guide for the use of
educational resources.

The group leader must upload to the Evaluation and Monitoring Environment a single file
in PDF format consolidating the contributions of all the participants in the space named
Phase 6. Unit 3.
Environment
Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and monitoring
for the
environment
development
Individual: The student must leave evidence in the forum of the
activity, the development and solution of each of the proposed
exercises.

Feedback of the contributions of their peers.

Collaborative:

The working group should demonstrate the use of the resource

provided in the practical learning environment and upload the
screenshots in the final report.

At the end of the resolution of the exercises, a document must be

Products to
submitted in pdf format, with the following specifications:
deliver by
student
Expected Product: PDF file marked with its Working
Group_212066_TC3, in letter Arial 12 and APA standards, with the
following content:

Page 1. Cover with the members who participated actively in the

consolidation and generation of collaborative work.
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Exercises solved according to the proposed
theme.
Following pages. Screen shots solution exercises with the recourse
online that performed in the practical learning environment.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA standards that supports
the solution of Exercises.

3. General guidelines for the collaborative work

Distance learning and in virtual learning environments

requires a solid planning process against suggested activities
for students. In this sense, when working on elements that
require the joint participation of the members of the group,
the need arises to articulate the learning strategy based on
Exercises SBP and to direct it to facilitate the process of
student training. This approach emphasizes self-learning and
Planning of activities self-training, which are facilitated by the dynamics of the
for the development of approach and its eclectic constructivist conception.
collaborative work
In the ABP approach, cognitive autonomy is fostered, taught
and learned from Exercises that have meaning for students,
error is used as an opportunity to learn rather than punish
and an important value is given to the self-evaluation and
formative, qualitative and individualized evaluation. The
resources needed to solve the Exercises are in the Knowledge
Environment. Whenever you have considered these aspects
 you can then begin to develop the phases corresponding to
the individual and collaborative work of the course.

Recognition of actors as subjects:

The students at the beginning of the course, in the space

destined to do so, will be recognized as participants of a
collaborative group, they will be able to present their
strengths to the service of the group and they will define the
channels of communication (contact data, institutional and
personal email address, skype , social networking links.) of
which will be available to interact effectively and proactively.

Planning of academic activities:

According to the elements that make up the principle of

responsible action, students must design a work plan based
on the analytical reflection of the activity agenda, the
evaluation plan, the guides and rubrics given for the
development of each academic activity . They will also design
a proposal for the planning of their collaborative work that
responds to the particularities and needs of the learning
strategy and mobilizes the work to be developed.

Staging of the principles of collaborative work:

It is important that students internalize each of the principles

Roles to perform by
of collaborative work and implement them from the beginning
the student in the
of the academic year and thereby ensure excellence in their
collaborative group
learning processes and the presentation of academic products
that meet the expected quality in the course.

Principle of Interaction. In the perspective of the student,

this principle materializes when defining the ways and
mechanisms that will enable interaction in collaborative work.
The intention is for students to participate in the different
spaces of Collaborative Work and the general forum of the
Initial Environment to allow efficient interaction between
them.

Principle of growth. Each student can contribute to the

process of the other peers. From this idea, in the same
scenario where interactions occur, students can contribute to
others in terms of suggesting greater participation to those
who do not intervene frequently, offering information search
strategies, proposing technological resources that support
the process being carried out, among others that allow the
team to advance and that each one can strengthen its
formative process.

Principle of Responsible Action. Students should organize

their work to achieve the goals set. It is important that each
one assumes actions in the development of the work that
 contribute in the achievement of good results of the
equipment. The aim is to ensure that the organization of
responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the
development of work and the coordination of individual
efforts, allow a successful collaborative exercise. It is also
important to consider aspects of evaluation in the student's
exercise, through the following scenarios:

Self-evaluation and Co-evaluation. It is the process in

which the student, through an instrument designed (Survey)
recognizes and presents its strengths and difficulties in the
development of collaborative work. A score has not been
assigned on this process, but it is a formative activity that
allows the student to identify the aspects that allow him / her
to progress in his / her formative process based on the
difficulties identified during the development of the activities,
their individual participation and their interaction with the
group.
Compiler: Consolidate the document that constitutes the
final product of the debate, taking into account that the
contributions of all the participants have been included and
that only the participants who participated in the process are
included. You must inform the person in charge of the alerts
to warn those who did not participate, that they will not be
included in the product to be delivered.

Reviewer: Ensure that the writing complies with the rules of

submission of work required by the teacher.
Roles and
Evaluator: Ensure that the document contains the criteria
responsibility for the
present in the rubric. You must inform the person in charge
delivery of products by
of the alerts so that you inform the other members of the
students
team in case any adjustments need to be made on the
subject.
Deliveries: Alert on the delivery times of the products and
send the document in the stipulated times, using the
resources destined for the shipment, and indicate to the other
partners that the delivery has been made.

Alerts: Ensure that the members of the group are notified of

new developments and inform the teacher through the work
forum and messaging of the course, which has been sent the
document.
Use of the APA standard, version 3 in Spanish (Translation of
version 6 in English).

The APA Standards is the style of organization and

Use of references presentation of information most used in the area of social
sciences. These are published under a Manual that allows you
to have access to the ways in which a scientific article should
be presented. Here you can find the most relevant aspects of
the sixth edition of the APA Standards Manual, such as
 references, citations, preparation and presentation of tables
and figures, headings and seriation, among others.

You can check how to implement them by going to

http://normasapa.com/

In the agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article 99, the

mistakes that infringe upon the academic order, among
others, are the following: paragraph e) “To plagiarize is to
present as your own work the whole or part of a writing,
report, task or document of invention performed by another
person. It also implies the use of cites or lack of references,
or includes cites where there is no coincidence between them
and the reference” and paragraph f)”To reproduce, or copy
for profit, educational resources or results of research
Plagiarism policy products, which have intellectual rights reserved for the
University”.

The academic punishments that the student will face are:

a. In case of academic fraud proved in the academic work

or evaluation, the score achieved will be zero (0.0)
without leading to disciplinary measures.
b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic work of
any nature, the score achieved will be zero (0.0),
without leading to disciplinary measures.
 4. Evaluation rubric

Rubric evaluation format

Phase 8 – Final Project
Type of
Individual activity Collaborative activity X
activity
Moment of
Initial Intermediate, unit Final X
Evaluation
Performance Criteria for Individual Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
The student
The student Participation in the
participated in the
participated actively effective elaboration of
Individual forum, but his
and effectively in the work is limited, so
student contributions are
the elaboration of the achievement of the 15
participation fairly effective in
the requested objectives is
in the forum the creation of the
product. inadequate.
final product.
Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points
Although the
The objectives of subject matter is
the work were treated, the body of
satisfactorily the document does
fulfilled, the not adequately The document leaves
decision problems solve the situation, unresolved decision
Problems under a risk the conclusions are algorithms under a risk
under a risk environment are not relevant environment, so 20
environment solved correctly and according to the efficiency decisions are
the analysis of their results obtained by left unanswered.
results leads to an the different
optimal decision decision algorithms
making. under a risk
environment.
Until 20 points Until 10 points Until 0 points
Although the
The objectives of
proposed theme is
the work were
treated, the body of
satisfactorily met,
the document does The document leaves
the problems of
not adequately unresolved decision
decision in
Problems of solve the situation, algorithms in
uncertainty are
decision in the conclusions are uncertainty, so that 20
solved correctly and
uncertainty not relevant optimality decisions
the analysis of its
according to the are left unanswered.
results leads to an
results obtained by
optimal decision-
the decision in
making.
uncertainty.
Until 20 points Until 10 points Until 0 points
 The objectives of the
work were
The document
satisfactorily Although the theme
leaves unresolved
fulfilled, the criteria is treated in a partial
game theory, so the
of game theory were way, decisions are
Game theory defined correctly and decisions of each
not correctly defined 20
player have not
the analysis of its according to game
been found
results leads to an theory.
correctly.
optimal decision-
making.
Until 20 points Until 10 points Until 0 points
The objectives of the
work were
satisfactorily met, Although the theme The document
the criteria of the is treated in a partial leaves the Markov
Markov theory were way, decisions are decision unresolved,
Criteria of the
defined correctly and not defined correctly so that optimality 20
Markov
the analysis of its according to decisions are not
results leads to an Markov's theory. defined correctly.
optimal decision-
making.
Until 20 points Until 10 points Until 0 points
Performance Criteria for Collaborative Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
Although the
document presents a
The document basic structure, it
presents an lacks some elements The basic norms for
excellent structure, of the requested the construction of
all the exercises are body or does not reports are
Structure of solved according to comply with the nonexistent like the
10
the Report the proposed norms for written algorithms applied
methodology and works. Not all to the themes of the
algorithms of the problems are solved theory of decisions.
theory of decisions. according to the
algorithms of the
course.
Until 10 points Until 5 points Until 0 points
Although the use of
The practical
The use of the the practical
environment of the
practical environment in the
course has been no
environment of the final report is
longer explored, for
Use of the course is excellent, evident, the
that reason the
practical the results and the solutions found by
evidence in the use 20
learning analysis of these the application lack
of the application to
environment are shown correctly analysis and
solve the problems
in the final work conclusions
raised has been
presented. pertinent to efficient
limited.
decision making.
Until 20 points Until 10 points Until 0 points
Final score 125