PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA VEGETATIVA - ESC.

BASE SPM

POBLACION PBI B SPM TARIFA DEMANDA

Millones Demanda
Año Miles Hab. Soles de Ctvs US$/kWh Vegetativa Proy - % DPob. % DPBI % DDemanda
2007 GWh
1981 17760.2 176901.0 4.54 5679.0
1982 18197.2 176507.0 4.93 5947.1 2.46% -0.2% 4.7%
1983 18635.6 158136.0 3.91 5756.4 2.41% -10.4% -3.2%
1984 19075.9 163842.0 4.37 6114.4 2.36% 3.6% 6.2%
1985 19518.6 167219.0 4.23 6497.8 2.32% 2.1% 6.3%
1986 19965.8 182981.0 4.15 7029.8 2.29% 9.4% 8.2%
1987 20417.3 200778.0 4.15 7673.6 2.26% 9.7% 9.2%
1988 20869.7 181822.0 2.93 7761.6 2.22% -9.4% 1.1%
1989 21319.9 159436.0 2.40 7180.1 2.16% -12.3% -7.5%
1990 21764.5 151492.0 4.90 7125.7 2.09% -5.0% -0.8%
1991 22203.9 154854.0 4.71 7666.8 2.02% 2.2% 7.6%
1992 22640.3 154017.0 6.43 6806.0 1.97% -0.5% -11.2%
1993 23073.2 162093.0 5.59 7793.6 1.91% 5.2% 14.5%
1994 23502.0 182043.7 7.61 8804.9 1.86% 12.3% 13.0%
1995 23926.3 195536.0 8.37 9193.2 1.81% 7.4% 4.4%
1996 24348.1 201009.3 8.66 9447.7 1.76% 2.8% 2.8%
1997 24767.8 214028.3 8.20 9940.1 1.72% 6.5% 5.2%
1998 25182.3 213190.0 7.04 10574.9 1.67% -0.4% 6.4%
1999 25588.5 216376.7 6.85 10950.2 1.61% 1.5% 3.5%
2000 25983.6 222206.7 7.16 11775.0 1.54% 2.7% 7.5%
2001 26366.5 223579.6 7.02 12019.1 1.47% 0.6% 2.1%
2002 26739.4 235772.9 6.60 12591.6 1.41% 5.5% 4.8%
2003 27103.5 245592.6 6.64 13285.9 1.36% 4.2% 5.5%
2004 27460.1 257769.8 7.04 14120.4 1.32% 5.0% 6.3%
2005 27810.5 273971.2 7.61 15043.2 1.28% 6.3% 6.5%
2006 28151.4 294597.8 7.58 16451.6 1.23% 7.5% 9.4%
2007 28481.9 319693.0 7.41 17860.1 1.17% 8.5% 8.6%
2008 28807.0 348923.0 8.08 19660.4 1.14% 9.1% 10.1%
2009 29132.0 352584.0 8.23 20064.5 1.13% 1.0% 2.1%
2010 29461.9 382380.0 8.20 21705.7 1.13% 8.5% 8.2%
2011 29797.7 407052.0 8.91 23290.1 1.14% 6.5% 7.3%
2012 30135.9 431273.0 9.87 24705.5 1.13% 6.0% 6.1%
2013 30475.1 456520.0 9.77 25957.5 1.13% 5.9% 5.1%
2014 30814.2 467275.8 10.34 26673.4 1.11% 2.36% 2.8%
2015 31151.6 482809.0 10.16 27837.6 1.10% 3.32% 4.4%
2016 31488.6 501621.9 9.89 28286.4 1.08% 3.90% 1.6%
2017 31826.0 510951.1 9.89 29110.5 1.07% 1.86% 2.9%
2018 32162.2 526303.6 9.89 30186.3 1.06% 3.00% 3.7%
2019 32495.5 541535.1 9.89 31271.0 1.04% 2.89% 3.6%
2020 32824.4 558796.5 9.89 32448.2 1.01% 3.19% 3.8%
2021 33149.0 576848.9 9.89 33668.8 0.99% 3.23% 3.8%
2022 33470.6 595332.0 9.89 34920.4 0.97% 3.20% 3.7%
2023 33788.6 614285.3 9.89 36203.5 0.95% 3.18% 3.7%
2024 34102.7 633697.4 9.89 37516.9 0.93% 3.16% 3.6%
2025 34412.4 653683.8 9.89 38864.3 0.91% 3.15% 3.6%
2026 34718.4 674024.3 9.89 40237.7 0.89% 3.11% 3.5%
2027 35020.9 694568.1 9.89 41631.0 0.87% 3.05% 3.5%
2028 35319.0 715808.0 9.89 43062.7 0.85% 3.06% 3.4%
1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 3.6%
 MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS CALCULADOS

LOG(DEMANDA) = C1 * LOG(PBI) + C2* LOG(POB) + C3 *INT92 + C; AR(1)

Dependent Variable: LOG(DEMANDA)

Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/13/17 Time: 20:20
Sample (adjusted): 1982 2016
Included observations: 35 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 18 iterations

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C1 LOG(PBIBSPM) 0.691627 0.065298 10.59193 0.0000

C2 LOG(POB) 1.536407 0.240831 6.379613 0.0000
C3 INT92 -0.107966 0.015947 -6.770111 0.0000
CC -14.74325 1.827526 -8.067327 0
AR(1) 0.817993 0.108398 7.546212 0

R-squared 0.99864 Mean dependent var 9.382506

Adjusted R-squa 0.998459 S.D. dependent var 0.511881
S.E. of regressio 0.020093 Akaike info criterion -4.845341
Sum squared res 0.012112 Schwarz criterion -4.623149
Log likelihood 89.793470 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.76864
F-statistic 5509.124 Durbin-Watson stat 2.009156
Prob(F-statistic) 0

PBI Demanda
3.5% 3.8% 2011-2022
3.3% 3.5% 2012-2023
3.0% 3.4% 2013-2024
3.1% 3.5% 2014-2025
3.1% 3.4% 2015-2026
 LOG(TARIFA LOG(DEMANDA LOG(ERROR(
Año LOG(PBI) LOG(POB) DLOG(PBI) Int92 DLOG(POB) DLOG(TAR) DLOG(TAR(-1))
US) ) -1))
1981 12.08 1.51 9.78 8.64 0
1982 12.08 1.60 9.81 8.69 -0.00223 0 0.02431 0.08241
1983 11.97 1.36 9.83 8.66 -0.10991 0 0.02381 -0.23180 -0.31421
1984 12.01 1.47 9.86 8.72 0.03545 0 0.02335 0.11123 0.34303
1985 12.03 1.44 9.88 8.78 0.02040 0 0.02294 -0.03256 -0.14379
1986 12.12 1.42 9.90 8.86 0.09008 0 0.02265 -0.01909 0.01347
1987 12.21 1.42 9.92 8.95 0.09282 0 0.02236 0.00000 0.01909
1988 12.11 1.08 9.95 8.96 -0.09917 0 0.02192 -0.34811 -0.34811
1989 11.98 0.88 9.97 8.88 -0.13139 0 0.02134 -0.19953 0.14857
1990 11.93 1.59 9.99 8.87 -0.05111 0 0.02064 0.71377 0.91330
1991 11.95 1.55 10.01 8.94 0.02195 0 0.01999 -0.03955 -0.75331
1992 11.94 1.86 10.03 8.83 -0.00542 1 0.01946 0.31129 0.35083
1993 12.00 1.72 10.05 8.96 0.05111 0 0.01894 -0.14000 -0.45128
1994 12.11 2.03 10.06 9.08 0.11608 0 0.01841 0.30888 0.44887
1995 12.18 2.12 10.08 9.13 0.07150 0 0.01789 0.09492 -0.21396
1996 12.21 2.16 10.10 9.15 0.02761 0 0.01748 0.03429 -0.06063
1997 12.27 2.10 10.12 9.20 0.06276 0 0.01709 -0.05493 -0.08921
1998 12.27 1.95 10.13 9.27 -0.00392 0 0.01660 -0.15253 -0.09760
1999 12.28 1.92 10.15 9.30 0.01484 0 0.01600 -0.02736 0.12517
2000 12.31 1.97 10.17 9.37 0.02659 0 0.01532 0.04426 0.07162
2001 12.32 1.95 10.18 9.39 0.00616 0 0.01463 -0.01908 -0.06334
2002 12.37 1.89 10.19 9.44 0.05310 0 0.01404 -0.06236 -0.04329
2003 12.41 1.89 10.21 9.49 0.04080 0 0.01352 0.00604 0.06841
2004 12.46 1.95 10.22 9.56 0.04839 0 0.01307 0.05850 0.05245
2005 12.52 2.03 10.23 9.62 0.06096 0 0.01268 0.07841 0.01991
2006 12.59 2.03 10.25 9.71 0.07259 0 0.01218 -0.00441 -0.08282
2007 12.68 2.00 10.26 9.79 0.08175 0 0.01167 -0.02278 -0.01837
2008 12.76 2.09 10.27 9.89 0.08749 0 0.01135 0.08656 0.10934
2009 12.77 2.11 10.28 9.91 0.01044 0 0.01122 0.01860 -0.06796
2010 12.85 2.10 10.29 9.99 0.08113 0 0.01126 -0.00360 -0.02220
2011 12.92 2.19 10.30 10.06 0.06253 0 0.01133 0.08233 0.08594
2012 12.97 2.29 10.31 10.11 0.05780 0 0.01129 0.10277 0.02044
2013 13.03 2.28 10.32 10.16 0.05689 0 0.01120 -0.01018 -0.11296
2014 13.05 2.34 10.34 10.19 0.02329 0 0.01106 0.05634 0.06652
2015 13.09 2.32 10.35 10.23 0.03270 0 0.01089 -0.01686 -0.07320
2016 13.13 2.29 10.36 10.25 0.03823 0 0.01076 -0.02696 -0.01011
2017 13.14 2.29 10.37 10.28 0.01843 0 0.01066 0.00000 0.02696
2018 13.17 2.29 10.38 10.31 0.02960 0 0.01051 0.00000 0.00000
2019 13.20 2.29 10.39 10.35 0.02853 0 0.01031 0.00000 0.00000
2020 13.23 2.29 10.40 10.39 0.03138 0 0.01007 0.00000 0.00000
2021 13.27 2.29 10.41 10.42 0.03179 0 0.00984 0.00000 0.00000
2022 13.30 2.29 10.42 10.46 0.03154 0 0.00965 0.00000 0.00000
2023 13.33 2.29 10.43 10.50 0.03134 0 0.00946 0.00000 0.00000
2024 13.36 2.29 10.44 10.53 0.03111 0 0.00925 0.00000 0.00000
2025 13.39 2.29 10.45 10.57 0.03105 0 0.00904 0.00000 0.00000
 PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA SEIN 2017 - 2028 (ESC. BASE SPM)
PBI 348923 352584 382380 407052 431273 456520 467276 482809 501622 510951 526304 541535 558797 576849 595332 614285 633697 653684 674024 694568 715808
PBI % 9.1% 1.0% 8.5% 6.5% 6.0% 5.9% 2.4% 3.3% 3.9% 1.9% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1%

ENERGIA - GWh 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Demanda Vegetativa - Proyeción Econométrica GWh 19660 20064 21706 23290 24706 25958 26673 27838 28286 29110 30186 31271 32448 33669 34920 36203 37517 38864 40238 41631 43063
2.1% 8.2% 7.3% 6.1% 5.1% 2.8% 4.4% 1.6% 2.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4%
Venta del Distribuidor MT y BT 15101 15718 16869 18407 18944 21104 21856 23074 23408 24090 24980 25878 26852 27862 28898 29960 31047 32162 33298 34451 35636

Pérdidas de Distribución % 8.01% 7.75% 7.83% 7.60% 8.00% 7.38% 7.48% 7.68% 7.37% 7.32% 7.27% 7.22% 7.17% 7.13% 7.09% 7.05% 7.01% 6.97% 6.94% 6.90% 6.87%
GWh 1314 1321 1433 1515 1646 1681 1766 1921 1864 1903 1958 2014 2075 2139 2205 2272 2340 2411 2482 2555 2629

Energía Entregada a Distribución (MT y BT) 16415 17039 18302 19923 20590 22785 23622 24995 25272 25993 26938 27892 28927 30001 31103 32231 33387 34572 35781 37006 38265
Venta Facturada Distribuidor (MAT y AT) 332 382 300 343 331 448 486 535 582 599 621 643 667 692 718 745 772 799 828 856 886
Energía Entregada a Distribución 16748 17421 18602 20266 20921 23234 24109 25530 25853 26591 27559 28535 29595 30694 31821 32976 34159 35372 36608 37862 39151

Pérdidas Transform. Transmis. Distribuidor % 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

GWh 335 348 349 397 442 474 576 581 601 618 640 663 687 713 739 766 793 822 850 879 909

Entrada al Nivel de Distribución 17082 17769 18951 20662 21364 23708 24685 26111 26454 27209 28199 29198 30282 31407 32560 33742 34952 36193 37458 38742 40060
Venta Facturada Generador (MAT, AT y MT) 4227 3965 4537 4539 5431 4405 4331 4228 4297 4422 4585 4750 4929 5114 5304 5499 5699 5903 6112 6324 6541
Salida del Nivel de Transmisión 21309 21734 23488 25202 26794 28113 29016 30339 30751 31631 32784 33948 35211 36521 37864 39241 40651 42097 43570 45065 46601

Pérdidas de Transmisión % 5.4% 5.6% 5.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.5% 7.2% 6.9% 6.9% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1%
GWh 1204 1292 1239 1706 1835 1954 2251 2249 2286 2055 2130 2205 2287 2372 2460 2549 2641 2735 2830 2928 3027

Entrada al Nivel de Transmisión GWh 22514 23025 24726 26908 28629 30067 31267 32588 33037 33686 34914 36153 37498 38893 40324 41790 43291 44831 46401 47993 49629
2.3% 7.4% 8.8% 6.4% 5.0% 4.0% 4.2% 1.4% 2.0% 3.6% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4%
Cargas Especiales 6329 6412 7311 7398 7765 8570 9197 10512 13522 13724 13669 13729 13661 13330 13330 13315 13395 13538 13549 13507 13454
1 Southern (SPCC) 1623 1613 1632 1646 1609 1665 1657 1706 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700
2 Ex-Centromin (Electroandes) 1193 887 807 817 928 1171 1062 926 960 960 960 960 960 960 960 960 960 960 960 960 960
3 Cerro Verde-220kV (Socabaya) 896 842 956 1003 1003 999 1001 1026 922 938 972 972 972 972 972 972 972 972 972 972 972
4 Antamina 644 652 678 708 881 888 910 974 966 966 966 966 966 966 966 966 966 966 966 966 966
5 Yanacocha 437 484 484 493 479 395 374 365 353 302 280 197 113 77 76 80 77 71 70 60 0
6 Shougang Hierro Perú (San Nicolás+Mina) 428 310 465 348 349 366 386 386 367 435 450 474 476 478 479 480 481 482 483 483 484
7 Cerro Verde-138kV 362 392 386 359 288 289 360 321 389 447 320 303 295 181 131 99 74 57 57 0 0
8 Tintaya BHP (Sulfuros + Oxidos) 266 197 258 132 128 74 24 106 156 205 196 179 180 185 185 185 186 185 185 185 186
9 Callalli (Ares 2 -Arequipa) 99 123 131 142 154 162 165 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101
10 Refineria Cajamarquilla 119 98 536 706 718 727 733 788 828 805 831 835 839 844 844 844 844 844 844 844 844
11 San Rafael (MINSUR) 108 105 108 113 123 130 141 143 144 147 147 196 200 204 208 211 215 219 223 226 230
12 Cementos Yura 104 113 127 144 214 234 241 224 231 215 221 293 302 302 348 356 372 410 410 430 430
13 Cerro Corona (Gold Fields) 51 154 154 150 143 148 143 145 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153
14 Antapaccay 2 67 604 644 682 701 732 746 755 758 561 561 561 649 772 780 780 782
15 Bayovar-Miski Mayo 32 87 91 97 94 97 94 92 101 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103
16 Aceros Arequipa 444 557 548 591 614 645 614 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 618
17 Toromocho (Chinalco) 8 608 852 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832
18 Constancia- Hudaby 9 481 610 678 678 694 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696
19 Cerro Verde-500kV (San José) 479 2330 2330 2330 2330 2330 2330 2330 2330 2330 2330 2330 2330 2330
20 Las Bambas 97 1066 1066 1066 1066 1066 1066 1066 1066 1066 1066 1066 1066 1066
6.5% 5.6% 15.0% 10.6% 7.0% 6.2% 6.1% 31.2% 4.5% 5.3% 4.4% 5.4% 4.5% 5.3% 4.6%
Cargas Incorporadas 582 650 698 960 1017 1085 1155 1220 1403 1552 1660 1763 1870 2454 2565 2701 2821 2974 3109 3273 3423
1 Yura - Cachimayo (Demanda INCASA) 153 163 169 181 172 182 197 185 207 219 207 219 207 219 207 219 207 219 207 219 207
2 Pucallpa 164 175 181 219 233 252 269 293 333 358 383 406 430 456 483 512 543 576 610 647 686
3 Talara 108 114 117 117 120 116 118 121 158 168 172 177 173 179 185 191 198 205 213 221 230
4 Tumbes 124 131 132 149 164 172 178 193 273 291 334 362 384 405 427 450 474 500 528 557 589
5 Majes-Siguas_Repartición-La Cano 34 39 50 57 54 58 62 69 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
6 Puerto Maldonado 28 38 47 54 59 63 69 79 103 109 116 153 177 185 192 201 209 218 218 218
7 Tarapoto- Moyobamba y Bellavista 11 189 220 246 267 283 272 317 335 355 376 398 421 446 473 501 530 562 595
8 Iquitos (Loreto) 468 500 530 562 596 632 670 710
9 Agroindustrias Olmos - Tierras Nuevas 6 12 27 50 59 77 83 88 90 94 99 102 109 119
277% 85% 69% 42% 35% 18% 8% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Nº Nuevos Proyectos & Ampliaciones Area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 471 1774 3279 5543 7856 10571 12461 13439 14207 14247 14225 14234
1 Tia Maria (SPCC) s 0 0 42 42 42 210 420 420 774 774 774 774
2 Los Chancas (SPCC) s
3 Ampliación+Mejora Concentradora Cuajone (SP s 174 174 554 554 554 554 554 554 554 554 554
4 Ampliación Concentradora Toquepala (SPCC) s 0 293 512 512 732 732 732 732 732 732 732 732
5 Ampliación Fundición (SPCC) s
6 Ampliación Refinería (SPCC) s
7 Ampliacion Cerro Verde-500kV (San José) s 47 80 158 236 236 236 236 236 236 236 236 236
8 Ampliacion Quimpac -Oquendo II (Cloro Soda) c
9 Ampliación El Brocal c 152 152 152 152 236 337 337 337 337 337 337
10 Ampliacion Shougang Hierro Perú (Op Mina y P. c 62 257 360 411 514 525 646 727 727 727 727 727
11 Ampliacion Antamina c 114 226 528 523 896 896 896 896 970 970 1007
12 Ampliacion Aceros Arequipa-Pisco c 84 294 333 333 343 343 527 527 527 527 527
13 Ampliacion Toromocho (Chinalco) c 109 320 598 598 598 598 598 598 598 598 598
14 Ampliación Bayovar (Miski Mayo) n
15 Fosfatos de Bayovar-CCPSA n 218 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436
16 Cementos Piura- CCPSA n 25 29 32 36 39 43 47 51
17 Ampliacion UNACEM-Cementos Lima c
18 Ampliacion UNACEM-Condorcocha c 148 230 275 277 276 277 277 279
19 Pachapaqui (ICM) c
20 Minas Conga n
21 Ampliación Antapaccay s 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22 Ampliación Las Bambas (MMG) s 144 156 235 294 487 645 743 748 743 743 743 748
23 Coroccohuayco-Antapaccay s 9 142 226 226 226 128 38 38 38 38
24 Ampliación Constancia s
25 Galeno (Lumina) n
26 Bongará-Cajamarquilla (Votorantim) n
27 Mina Quechua s 123 615 615 615 615 615
28 Quellaveco (Angloamerican) s
29 Mina Chapi (Milpo) s
30 San Gabriel (Ex Chucapaca, de Buenaventura) s 7 11 21 126 129 131 134 137 139 142 145
31 Hilarion (Milpo) c 121 128 128 128
32 Pukaqaqa (Milpo) c 121 128 128 128
33 Pampa de Pongo (JMP) s 156 276 276 397 477 477 477 477 477
34 Los Calatos (Hampton) s 307 710 710 710 710 710 710 710
35 Michiquillay (Angloamerican) n
36 Cañariaco (Candente Cupper) n
37 La Granja (Río Tinto) n
38 Shahuindo-Fase II (Tahoe, Rio Alto) n 9 41 62 57 57 57 54 57 57
39 Haquira (Antares) s 622 622 622 881 881 881 881
40 Mina Justa (Marcobre) c 165 335 417 506 596 596 596 596 596 596
41 Río Blanco (Zijin Mining Group) n 330 396 660 660 660 660 660 660
42 Ampliación Refinería Talara (PETROPERU) n 14 50 246 446 668 668 668 668 668 668 668 668
43 Corani (Bear Creek) s 156 312 312 312 312 312 312 312 312
44 Inmaculada (Hochschild) c
45 La Arena (Río Alto) n
46 El Porvenir, Ampliación (Milpo) c
47 Mina Alpamarca (Volcan) c
48 Minas Unidad Yauli -VOLCAN c
49 Ampliacion SIDERPERU n
50 Ollachea (Kuri Kullu) s 58 80 80 96 96 96 95 95 63 17
51 Salmueras Sudamericanas - CCPSA n 17 18 260 260 260 260 260 260 260
52 Accha -Azod- (Zincore Metals- Exp Collasuyo) s
53 Crespo (Hochschild) s
54 Magistral (Milpo) c 121 128 128 128 128 128
55 Zafranal (AQM Copper) s 276 701 701 701 701 701 701
56 Tambomayo (Buenaventura) s 60 84 84 84 87 89 92 95 97 100 103 106
57 Ampliación Lagunas Norte (Barrick Misquichilca n
58 Ampliación-re Comp Met La Oroya (Doe Run) c 107 215 429 429 429 429 429
59 Shouxin_Explotación Relaves (JV de Shougang c 135 173 173 173 173 173 230 230 230 230 230 230

Consumo propio de centrales_SSAA 415 415 442 430 466 554 605 605 682 693 705 717 729 742 754 767 780 794 807 821 835

Demanda del Ecuador

Total 29840 30503 33178 35696 37877 40276 42224 44925 48644 50126 52723 55642 59302 63275 67544 71034 73727 76344 78113 79818 81574

Autoproductores (78) (78) (78) (97) (177) (169) (179) (186) (191) (191) (191) (191) (191) (191) (191) (191) (191) (191) (191) (191) (191)
Aporte de Refineria de la Pampilla (78) (78) (78) (78) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75)
CH Yauli y Sacsamarca

CH Roncador (19) (15) (11) (16) (23) (28) (28) (28) (28) (28) (28) (28) (28) (28) (28) (28) (28) (28)
CH Pias (88) (83) (88) (88) (88) (88) (88) (88) (88) (88) (88) (88) (88) (88) (88) (88) (88)

Total SEIN GWh 29762 30425 33100 35599 37700 40108 42045 44739 48452 49934 52531 55450 59111 63083 67353 70843 73535 76153 77922 79627 81383
Ventas_SICOM 27,003 27,162 29,567 31,792 33,621 35,719 37,248 39,758 43,211
Total COES GWh 29652 30315 32950 35374 37438 39901 41843 44509 48237 49711 52308 55227 58887 62860 67130 70619 73312 75929 77698 79403 81159
8.4% 3.1% 5.2% 5.6% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 5.2% 3.8% 3.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%
Proy MP con data Med Gener COES, a 04 jul 2017 29559 29807 32427 35222 37281 39667 41796 44500 48292 49525 52120 54755 58220
8.5% 2.6% 5.2% 5.1% 6.3%

POTENCIA - MW 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Entrada al Nivel de Transmisión (GWh) 22514 23025 24726 26908 28629 30067 31267 32588 33037 33686 34914 36153 37498 38893 40324 41790 43291 44831 46401 47993 49629
Factor de carga % 74% 72% 73% 76% 77% 77% 79% 79% 79% 79% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
Potencia Vegetativa MW 3492 3630 3861 4020 4255 4446 4501 4680 4804 4849 5001 5178 5351 5550 5754 5963 6177 6397 6621 6848 7082
1.2% 4.0% 2.6% 0.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.3% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4%
Cargas Especiales 639 578 661 871 970 1054 1151 1641 1672 1708 1699 1699 1679 1634 1635 1643 1660 1682 1683 1679 1671
1 Southern (SPCC) 198 193 200 199 215 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214 214
2 Ex-Centromin (Electroandes) 143 107 97 98 112 141 128 111 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115
3 Cerro Verde-220kV (Socabaya) 122 115 125 119 119 119 128 138 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125
4 Antamina 90 82 90 95 118 119 130 134 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131
5 Yanacocha 55 59 59 70 68 56 53 52 50 43 40 28 16 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 0
6 Shougang Hierro Perú (San Nicolás+Mina) 62 38 62 65 58 63 65 64 58 64 67 68 68 68 68 68 69 69 69 69 69
7 Cerro Verde-138kV 48 48 47 44 35 35 44 41 49 56 39 37 36 22 16 12 9 7 7 0 0
8 Tintaya BHP (Sulfuros + Oxidos) 36 32 36 17 17 17 5 20 22 32 32 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
9 Callalli (Ares 2 -Arequipa) 19 22 28 20 22 23 24 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
10 Refineria Cajamarquilla HP 14 12 40 40 41 41 35 39 22 42 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
11 San Rafael (MINSUR) 15 9 14 15 16 18 18 18 18 19 19 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30
12 Cementos Yura HP 14 12 20 32 38 39 33 33 35 26 30 41 33 33 39 50 59 67 67 70 70
13 Cerro Corona (Gold Fields) 20 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
14 Antapaccay 2 73 87 88 95 93 96 98 99 99 72 72 72 83 99 100 100 100
15 Bayovar-Miski Mayo 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
16 Aceros Arequipa HP 24 25 25 29 34 35 32 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
17 Toromocho (Chinalco) 31 115 121 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115
18 Constancia- Hudaby 20 81 82 86 86 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88
19 Cerro Verde-500kV (San José) 279 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303
20 Las Bambas 122 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152

Cargas Incorporadas 90 103 110 152 161 172 182 205 226 249 273 291 314 423 446 469 493 520 547 575 606
1 Yura - Cachimayo (Demanda INCASA) HP 9 9 9 9 6 7 8 7 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
2 Pucallpa 33 35 36 44 47 50 54 56 63 68 73 77 82 87 92 98 103 110 116 123 130
3 Talara 19 20 21 21 21 20 18 20 25 27 28 29 28 29 30 31 32 34 35 37 38
4 Tumbes 20 23 24 27 30 30 33 42 44 47 54 59 63 66 70 73 77 82 86 91 96
5 Majes-Siguas_Repartición-La Cano 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
6 Puerto Maldonado 6 9 11 12 14 14 16 18 19 20 22 29 33 35 36 38 39 41 41 41
7 Tarapoto- Moyobamba y Bellavista 2 31 36 40 44 50 48 57 61 64 68 72 76 81 86 91 96 102 108
8 Iquitos (Loreto) 89 95 101 107 113 120 127 135
9 Agroindustrias Olmos - Tierras Nuevas 3 5 8 15 18 23 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 36
315% 81% 83% 34% 35% 16% 6% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Nuevos Proyectos & Ampliaciones Area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 221 399 729 979 1326 1541 1626 1723 1726 1723 1725
1 Tia Maria (SPCC) s 0 0 5 5 5 25 50 50 93 93 93 93
2 Los Chancas (SPCC) s 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Ampliación+Mejora Concentradora Cuajone (SP s 21 21 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67
4 Ampliación Concentradora Toquepala (SPCC) s 0 35 62 62 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88
5 Ampliación Fundición (SPCC) s 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Ampliación Refinería (SPCC) s 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Ampliacion Cerro Verde-500kV (San José) s 7 7 17 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
8 Ampliacion Quimpac -Oquendo II (Cloro Soda) c
9 Ampliación El Brocal c 8 8 8 8 18 31 31 31 31 31 31
10 Ampliacion Shougang Hierro Perú (Op Mina y P. c 10 35 49 56 70 71 88 99 99 99 99 99
11 Ampliacion Antamina c 14 29 69 69 119 119 119 119 129 129 134
12 Ampliacion Aceros Arequipa-Pisco c HP 8 8 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12
13 Ampliacion Toromocho (Chinalco) c 23 75 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84
14 Ampliación Bayovar (Miski Mayo) n
15 Fosfatos de Bayovar-CCPSA n 41 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
16 Cementos Piura- CCPSA n HP 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
17 Ampliacion UNACEM-Cementos Lima c
18 Ampliacion UNACEM-Condorcocha c 8 24 24 25 25 25 25 25
19 Pachapaqui (ICM) c
20 Minas Conga n
21 Ampliación Antapaccay s 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22 Ampliación Las Bambas (MMG) s 3 3 13 20 45 65 78 78 78 78 78 78
23 Coroccohuayco-Antapaccay s 5 25 30 30 30 17 5 5 5 5
24 Ampliación Constancia s
25 Galeno (Lumina) n
26 Bongará-Cajamarquilla (Votorantim) n HP
27 Mina Quechua s 16 78 78 78 78 78
28 Quellaveco (Angloamerican) s
29 Mina Chapi (Milpo) s
30 San Gabriel (Ex Chucapaca, de Buenaventura) s 2 2 16 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 20
31 Hilarion (Milpo) c 17 18 18 18
32 Pukaqaqa (Milpo) c 17 18 18 18
33 Pampa de Pongo (JMP) s HP 30 40 40 50 57 57 57 57 57
34 Los Calatos (Hampton) s 50 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
35 Michiquillay (Angloamerican) n
36 Cañariaco (Candente Cupper) n
37 La Granja (Río Tinto) n
38 Shahuindo-Fase II (Tahoe, Rio Alto) n 2 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
39 Haquira (Antares) s HP 72 72 72 103 103 103 103
40 Mina Justa (Marcobre) c 22 45 56 68 80 80 80 80 80 80
41 Río Blanco (Zijin Mining Group) n HP 46 51 85 85 85 85 85 85
42 Ampliación Refinería Talara (PETROPERU) n 3 24 34 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
43 Corani (Bear Creek) s HP 23 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
44 Inmaculada (Hochschild) c
45 La Arena (Río Alto) n
46 El Porvenir, Ampliación (Milpo) c HP
47 Mina Alpamarca (Volcan) c
48 Minas Unidad Yauli -VOLCAN c
49 Ampliacion SIDERPERU n HP
50 Ollachea (Kuri Kullu) s 7 10 10 12 11 11 11 11 7 2
51 Salmueras Sudamericanas - CCPSA n 2 2 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
52 Accha -Azod- (Zincore Metals- Exp Collasuyo) s
53 Crespo (Hochschild) s
54 Magistral (Milpo) c 17 18 18 18 18 18
55 Zafranal (AQM Copper) s 39 80 80 80 80 80 80
56 Tambomayo (Buenaventura) s 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13
57 Ampliación Lagunas Norte (Barrick Misquichilca n
58 Ampliación-re Comp Met La Oroya (Doe Run) c HP 25 36 51 51 51 51 51
59 Shouxin_Explotación Relaves (JV de Shougang c 19 24 24 24 24 24 32 32 32 32 32 32

Factor de Simultaneidad 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5%

Consumo propio de centrales 64 65 69 64 69 82 87 87 99 100 101 103 104 106 108 109 111 113 115 117 119

Demanda del Ecuador 62 -

Total 4216 4374 4628 5010 5348 5637 5794 6438 6620 6768 7087 7443 7919 8404 8945 9378 9709 10061 10316 10564 10822
3.7% 5.8% 8.3% 6.7% 5.4% 2.8% 11.1% 2.8% 2.2% 4.7% 5.0% 6.4% 6.1% 6.4% 4.8% 3.5% 3.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4%
Autoproductores (67) (9) (12) (12) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25)
Aporte de Refineria de la Pampilla (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9)
CH Yauli y Sacsamarca

CH Roncador - - (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4)
CH Pias - - (13) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12)
Total SEIN MW 4149 4365 4616 4998 5323 5613 5770 6413 6596 6744 7062 7418 7894 8379 8920 9353 9684 10037 10292 10540 10798

Total COES MW 4127 4341 4589 4959 5283 5573 5738 6382 6557 6707 7025 7381 7857 8343 8884 9317 9648 10000 10255 10503 10761
5.2% 5.7% 8.1% 6.5% 5.5% 3.0% 11.2% 2.8% 2.3% 4.7% 5.1% 6.4% 6.2% 6.5% 4.9% 3.6% 3.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5%
Proy MP con data Med Gener COES, a 04 jul 2017 4199 4322 4579 4961 5291 5575 5737 6275 6565 6712 7045 7412 7829
9.4% 4.6% 2.2% 5.0% 5.2% 5.6%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
 DIAGRAMA DE FLUJO DE DEMANDA SEIN 2016
(GWh)

Demanda de Energía a
Nivel de Generación SEIN
48452
Demanda a Nivel Generación COES
48237
(191) Autoproductores + Disminuc. Pérdidas REP

682 Consumo Propio Centrales

11915 Nuevos Proyectos y Ampliaciones +

Cargas Incorporadas + Cargas Especiales

33037 Demanda al nivel de Transmisión

Ventas Generador Pérdidas en Transmisión

MAT, AT, MT 2286
4297

26454 Entrada al nivel de Distribución

Pérdidas en Transf. Transm. Distribuidor

Ventas Vegetativas Ventas Distribuidor 601
(Demanda Vegetativa) MAT y AT 582
28286

25272 Entrada al nivel de Distribución (MT y BT)

Pérdidas MT y BT
1864
Ventas Distribuidor
MT y BT 23408
Tipo de Cambio 2016

Mes Dólar de N.A.

- Venta (S/.)
1/31/2016 3.471
2/29/2016 3.527
3/31/2016 3.328
4/30/2016 3.274
5/31/2016 3.374
6/30/2016 3.306
7/31/2016 3.360
8/31/2016 3.395
9/30/2016 3.403
10/31/2016 3.363
11/30/2016 3.422
12/31/2016 3.360
Promedio 2016 3.382
Fuente: SBS
 POBLACION PBI B SPM TARIFA DEMANDA
Millones
Ctvs Demanda Vegetativa
Miles Hab. Soles de
US$/kWh Proy - GWh
2007
1981 17760 176901 4.5 5679
1982 18197 176507 4.9 5947
1983 18636 158136 3.9 5756
1984 19076 163842 4.4 6114
1985 19519 167219 4.2 6498
1986 19966 182981 4.2 7030
1987 20417 200778 4.2 7674
1988 20870 181822 2.9 7762
1989 21320 159436 2.4 7180
1990 21765 151492 4.9 7126
1991 22204 154854 4.7 7667
1992 22640 154017 6.4 6806
1993 23073 162093 5.6 7794
1994 23502 182044 7.6 8805
1995 23926 195536 8.4 9193
1996 24348 201009 8.7 9448
1997 24768 214028 8.2 9940
1998 25182 213190 7.0 10575
1999 25589 216377 6.9 10950
2000 25984 222207 7.2 11775
2001 26367 223580 7.0 12019
2002 26739 235773 6.6 12592
2003 27103 245593 6.6 13286
2004 27460 257770 7.0 14120
2005 27811 273971 7.6 15043
2006 28151 294598 7.6 16452
2007 28482 319693 7.4 17860
2008 28807 348923 8.1 19660
2009 29132 352584 8.2 20064
2010 29462 382380 8.2 21706
2011 29798 407052 8.9 23290
2012 30136 431273 9.9 24706
2013 30475 456520 9.8 25958
2014 30814 467276 10.3 26673
2015 31152 482809 10.2 27838
2016 31489 501622 9.89 28286
Energia Total COES Potencia Total COES Var PBI Var Energía Var Potencia
60000
GWh MW %PBI %Energía %Potencia
GWh Mill ones

50000
0.2%
10.4%
3.6% 40000
2.1%
9.4%
9.7% 30000
9.4%
12.3%
5.0% 20000
2.2%
0.5%
10000
5.2%
12.3%
7.4% 0
2.8%
6.5%
16085 0.4%
12.0%
16728 1.5% 4.0% %Ene
17634 2.7% 5.4%
10.0%
18463 2792 0.6% 4.7%
19658 2908 5.5% 6.5% 4.2%
20688 2965 4.2% 5.2% 1.9% 8.0%
21903 3131 5.0% 5.9% 5.6%
23001 3305 6.3% 5.0% 5.6% 6.0%
24763 3580 7.5% 7.7% 8.3%
27254 3966 8.5% 10.1% 10.8% 4.0%
29559 4199 9.1% 8.5% 5.9%
29807 4322 1.0% 0.8% 2.9% 2.0%
32427 4579 8.5% 8.8% 5.9%
35222 4961 6.5% 8.6% 8.3%
0.0%
37281 5291 6.0% 5.8% 6.6%
39667 5575 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
41796 5737 2.4% 5.4% 2.9% 10.0%
44500 6275 3.3% 6.5% 9.4% %Ene
9.0%
48291 6565 3.9% 8.5% 4.6%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
 600000 7000
GWh Mill ones Soles de 2007 MW Millones Soles de 2007

500000 6000

5000
400000

4000
300000
3000

200000
2000

100000
1000

0 0

10.0% 12.0%
%Energía %PBI %Potencia %PBI
9.0%
10.0%
8.0%
7.0%
8.0%
6.0%
5.0% 6.0%
4.0%
3.0% 4.0%

2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0% 0.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

9.0% 10.0%
%Energía %PBI %Potencia %PBI
8.0% 9.0%

7.0% 8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.0% 2.0%
1.0% 1.0%
0.0% 0.0%
09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
 500000
nes Soles de 2007
450000

400000

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

10.0%
otencia %PBI
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

9.0%
Potencia %PBI
8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%
2 2013 2014 2015 2016