CHAPTER 28: BASIC MACROECONOMIC distance of the consumption line
RELATIONSHIPS above the 45˚ line.
Break-even Point – income level at INCOME –CONSUMPTION AND INCOME- which households plan to consume SAVING RELATIONSHIPS their entire incomes (C = DI). Personal Savings – that part of Graphically, the consumption disposable (after tax) income not schedule intersects the 45˚ line and consumed. the saving schedule intersects the horizontal axis at the break-even S = DI – C income level (saving is 0). Where S = Savings Average Propensity to Consume DI = Disposable Income (APC) – fraction or percentage of C = Consumption total income that is consumed.
Many factors determine a nation’s 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
APC = 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 level of consumption and saving, but the most significant is disposable Average Propensity to Save (APS) – income. fraction of total income that is The 45˚ (degree) line is a reference saved. line. Because it bisects the 90˚ angle 𝑠𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 APS = 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 formed by the two axes of the graph, each point on it is equidistant Marginal Propensity to Consume from the two axes. At each point on (MPC) – proportion or fraction of the 45˚ line, C = DI. any change in income consumed; Consumption Schedule – schedule ratio of a change in consumption to showing the various amounts that a change in income that caused the households would plan to consume consumption change. at each of the various levels of DI 𝛥 𝑖𝑛 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 that might prevail at some specific MPC = 𝛥 𝑖𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 time; reflects the direct consumption-disposable income Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS) relationship. – fraction of any change in income There is a direct relationship saved; ratio of a change in saving to between saving and DI but saving is the change in income that brought it smaller in a small DI compared to a about. larger DI. 𝛥 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 MPS = 𝛥 𝑖𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 Dissaving – consuming in excess of after tax income; more often occurs MPC is the numerical value of the in relatively low DI; graphically, slope of the consumption schedule dissaving is shown as the vertical and MPS is the numerical value of the slope of the saving schedule. reduces wealth. Reverse Wealth Effect is reserved for situations NON INCOME DETERMINANTS OF wherein wealth unexpectedly CONSUMPTION AND SAVING changes because of unexpected Non-income determinants of changes in asset value and not consumption and saving are wealth, because of intentional reduction of borrowing, expectations, and wealth through borrowing. interest rates. Households consume more or less Wealth – dollar amount of all the depending on expectations about assets that it owns minus the dollar future prices and income. amount of its liabilities. Households When real interest rates (adjusted build wealth by saving money out of for inflation) fall, households tend to current income. The point of borrow more, consume more and building wealth is to increase save less. Lower interest rates consumption possibilities. induces customers to purchase Events sometimes suddenly boost goods on credit and diminishes the the value of existing wealth. When incentive to save due to reduced this happens, households tend to interest “payment” to the saver. At increase their spending and reduce best, lower interest rates shift the their saving. This is called the consumption schedule slightly Wealth Effect and it shifts the upward and the saving schedule consumption schedule upward and slightly downward. Higher interest the saving schedule downward. rates do the opposite. They move in response to When developing macroeconomic households taking advantage of the models, economists change their increased consumption possibilities focus from the relationship between afforded by the sudden increase in consumption and DI to the wealth. relationship between consumption Borrowing increases current and real GDP. consumption beyond what would be The movement from one point to possible if its spending were limited another on a consumption schedule to its DI. By allowing households to is a change in the amount consumed spend more, borrowing shifts the and is solely caused by a change in current consumption schedule real GDP. On the other hand, and upward. While borrowing in the upward or downward shift of the present allows for higher entire schedule is caused by changes consumption in the present, it in one or more of the non-income necessitates lower consumption in determinants. the future when debts must be Changes in non-income repaid. Increased borrowing determinants will shift the increases debt, which in turn consumption schedule in one direction and the saving schedule in If the expected rate of return the opposite direction. exceeds the interest rate, the A change in taxes shifts the investment should be undertaken. consumption and saving schedules This guideline applies even if a firm in the same direction. finances the investment internally The consumption and saving out of funds saved from past profit. schedules usually are relatively The role of interest rate in the stable unless altered by major tax investment decision does not increases or decreases. Their change. When the firm uses money stability may be because a.) from savings to invest, it incurs an consumption-saving decisions are opportunity cost because it forgoes strongly influenced by long term the interest income it could have considerations, and b.) changes in earned by lending the funds to the non-income determinants someone else. frequently work in opposite Investment Demand Curve – directions (with regards to shifts in amount of investment forthcoming consumption and saving schedules) at each real interest rate. The level and therefore may be self-canceling. of investment depends on the expected rate of return and the real THE INTEREST-RATE – INVESTMENT interest rate. RELATIONSHIP The non-interest rate determinants The investment decision is a of demand are: a.) Acquisition, marginal-benefit – marginal-cost maintenance, and operating costs; decision: the marginal benefit from b.) Business taxes; c.) Technological investment is the expected rate of change; d.) Stock of capital goods on return and the marginal cost is the hand; e.) Planned inventory interest rate that must be paid for changes; f.) expectations. the borrowed funds. Expected When initial costs of capital goods returns and the interest rate and the estimated costs of operating therefore are the two basic and maintaining those goods rise, determinants of investment the expected rate of return spending. decreases and the investment Expected Rate of Return = demand curve shifts to the left. 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒−𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 Lower costs shift the investment 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 demand curve to the right. * Note that this is an expected rate An increase in business taxes lowers of return, not a guaranteed rate of the expected profitability of return. investments and shifts the demand Interest – financial cost of curve to the left, a reduction of borrowing. business taxes shift it to the right. The development of new technology durability, irregularity of innovation, lowers production costs or improves and variability of profits. product quality and increases the Business expectations can change expected rate of return and thus quickly when some event suggests a shifts the investment demand curve significant possible change in future to the right. business conditions. When the economy is overstocked Because of their durability, capital with production facilities and when goods have indefinite useful firms have excessive inventories of lifespans. Within limits, purchases of finished goods, the expected rate of capital goods are discretionary and return on new investment declines, therefore can be postponed which thus the investment demand curve will lead to lower level of shifts to the left. When the economy investment. is understocked with production Innovations occur quite irregularly. facilities and when firms are selling Current profit affect both the their outputs as fast as they can, the incentive and ability to invest. But expected rate of return increases profits are highly variable from year and the investment demand curve to year. shifts rightward. The variability of investment Firms make planned changes to spending can contribute to cyclical their inventory levels mostly instability. because they are expecting either MULTIPLIER EFFECT faster or slower sales. An increase in inventories is counted as positive Multiplier Effect – a change in investment and thus shifts the component of total spending leads investment demand curve to the to a larger change in GDP. The right, while a decrease in inventories multiplier determines how much is counted as negative investment larger that change will be; it is the and will shift the demand curve to ratio of a change in GDP to the the left. initial change in spending The expected rate of return on ∆ 𝑖𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃 capital investment depends on the Multiplier = 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 firm’s expectations of future sales, The “initial change in spending” is future operating costs, and future usually associated with investment probability of the product that the spending because of investment’s capital helps produce. volatility. But changes in Investment is unstable; it is the most consumption, net exports, and volatile component of total government purchases may also spending. It may be due to: lead to multiplier effect. variability of expectations, The “initial change in spending” associated with investment spending results from a change in real interest rate and/or a shift of the investment demand curve An increase in initial spending will create a multiple increase in GDP while a decrease will create a multiple decrease in GDP. The multiplier effect follows from two facts: The economy support repetitive, continuous flow of expenditures and income through which dollars spent by A are received as income by B and then spent by B and received as income by C and so on. Any change in income will change both the consumption and saving in the same direction as, and by a fraction of, the change in income. The MPC and the multiplier are directly related and the MPS and the multiplier are inversely related. 1 Multiplier = 1−𝑀𝑃𝐶 1 Multiplier = 𝑀𝑃𝑆 MPC + MPS = 1 The larger the MPC (the smaller the MPS), the greater the size of the multiplier. Estimates of the actual-economy multipliers are less than the multiplier as discussed in the book.