Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Toshihiro ATSUMI
Faculty of Economics
Meiji Gakuin University
1.Introduction
The infant industry argument for trade protection has a long history. In this research note, I
review the Japanese experience on the development of the nation’s postwar era automotive industry
from 1945 to the 1970s. Although the focus is on policy, I offer data that may be relevant to examine
whether the Japanese experience can be considered as a case for the infant industry argument for
trade protection.
The original ideas behind infant industry trade protection are found in the writings of John
Stuart Mill, a nineteenth century English philosopher and economist, who argued that providing tem-
porary protection to an infant (undeveloped) industry can be beneficial because it allows the industry
space to gain competitiveness and become more efficient, and thus eventually stand on its own and
compete against foreign products without the protection. The idea has been attractive to authorities
in developing countries wishing to catch up with the more industrialized countries.
Suppose that there is no domestic supply of automobiles because production costs are too high
compared to world price. Automobiles, therefore, are all imported. Now suppose that the government
decides to take on a protection policy and imposes a tariff on imported automobiles. Then the domes-
tic price that the consumers face will rise. If the tariff makes the corresponding rise in the domestic
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『経済研究』(明治学院大学)第 153 号
price high enough, it will promote domestic supply. As is well known, however, this leads to losses in
consumer welfare that outweighs the sum of producer surplus gain and tariff revenue. The net loss
is the dead weight loss. If the protection takes the form of import quotas, there will be no tariff reve-
nues, and importers earn rents instead. As in the tariff case, however, by harming consumers, impos-
ing quotas on imports also leads to dead weight losses, which can be worse when resources are used
to capture rents. This is the standard argument about the consequences of such trade protection.
The infant industry argument, however, goes on to say that, during protection, the domestic
producers gain experience and efficiency over time through the production of automobiles such that
its supply curve shifts outward. Then the quota/tariff protection can be lifted to eliminate the dead
weight losses, and in addition, domestic supply implies some producer surplus. Theoretically, protec-
tion policy can be justified if the producer surplus generated later outweighs the dead weight losses
during protection.
Before the Second World War, Japan gained some experience in automobiles through the pro-
duction of military trucks and other commercial vehicles such as buses. Production of passenger ve-
hicles was limited. After the war began, companies such as Toyota, which had started passenger car
production, were ordered by the government to concentrate on military and commercial vehicle pro-
duction instead.
Automobile imports to Japan immediately after the war were mostly for the Occupation Army
and related personnel. This was because of a regulation with such a restriction that was in place un-
til 1952. The route for Japanese to obtain cars was to purchase used cars from them, although de-
mand was limited because of the poor economic situation of most Japanese.
The supply of passenger cars in 1951 is estimated as follows. The total supply to the Japanese
was 5,248 vehicles, of which 3,598 were domestically produced. The remaining 1,650 were supplied as
used cars that the Occupation Army had sold to the Japanese. The Occupation Army was basically
exempt from foreign currency control and tariffs (described in the next subsection) and imported
3,981 passenger cars that year, in addition to the cars that they brought in themselves. Therefore,
the amount of passenger cars imported to Japan exceeded domestic production.
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Infant industry argument for trade protection and Japanese automotive industrial policy
government due to the nation’s low foreign currency reserves. It was considered that automobile im-
ports were wasting Japan’s monetary reserves at a time when the authorities were desperate to pre-
serve them. Government approval of foreign currency allocation was required in order for the pri-
vate sector to import goods from abroad. This effectively put a cap on imports. Specifically, foreign
currency quotas for automobile imports were set every six months; these are shown in table 1 and
figure 1. As indicated in figure 1, it was not until the 1960s that the cap was gradually lifted.
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
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『経済研究』(明治学院大学)第 153 号
In addition to the foreign currency quota, tariffs were imposed on automotive imports, includ-
ing parts. For example, 40% and 30% tariffs were levied on passenger vehicles and engines, respec-
tively.
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Infant industry argument for trade protection and Japanese automotive industrial policy
eign investments, however. For example, Soichiro Honda, the founder of Honda Motor Co., was con-
cerned that Japanese protection of its automotive sector would lead to their losing business
opportunities abroad. Foreign investment in automobile production was not liberalized until April
1971.
It is also noteworthy that the liberalization in 1965 did not mean zero tariffs: the abovemen-
tioned 40% and 30% tariffs on imported assembled passenger cars and engines still remained. The
first reduction of the 40% tariff, to 36%, occurred in 1968. After several subsequent reductions, in No-
vember 1972, the tariff on passenger car imports was reduced from 8% to 6.4%. Finally, in December
1977, the Japanese government announced that prior to the settlement of the GATT Tokyo round, it
would abolish the tariff on passenger car imports, which it did, effective March 1978. It was from this
point on that automobile imports in Japan became free of both quotas and tariffs. (Important policy
changes described above are summarized in chronological order in table 2.)
MITI’s blueprint of the Japanese automotive industry and challenges from abroad
The blueprint
The basic intension of MITI can be understood as a kind of a blueprint. The blueprint on the
development of the Japanese automobile industry consisted of the following: 1) promoting domestic
(passenger) car production by protecting its market, 2) encouraging mergers of Japanese manufactur-
ers to gain economies of scale, and 3) liberalizing imports in a stepwise manner, while blocking for-
eign investments.
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『経済研究』(明治学院大学)第 153 号
bile manufacturers by the U.S. counterparts, MITI and the Japanese manufacturers became cautious
about the same thing happening in Japan. This seems to have led MITI to postpone as long as possi-
ble foreign investment liberalization of the Japanese automotive sector.
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Infant industry argument for trade protection and Japanese automotive industrial policy
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『経済研究』(明治学院大学)第 153 号
pan’s rise as the second largest automobile manufacturing country. The confidence gained may well
have led to a change in the stakeholder mentality and an understanding that protection was no lon-
ger necessary. However, it must be stressed that many stakeholders in the Japanese auto industry
remained wary of foreign investment in the domestic market, even in this era.
How did the automobile industry perform in the postwar era? The overall picture can be seen
by comparing the changes in production, exports, and imports over time. According to table 4 and
figure 2 , production started from around 1950, took off in the 1960 s, and grew rapidly in the late
1960s, exceeded 2 million passenger cars per year. This growth continued in the 1970s, except for
during the Oil Shock year of 1974, and exceeded 7 million passenger cars in 1980.
Exports can be considered a sign that an industry is becoming competitive in the international
market, and thus a sign of “graduation” from the infant stage. The first passenger car export to the
United States by Toyota was seen in 1958 when the company exported its car named Crown. How-
ever, the initial attempt ended in failure. Kobayashi (2011) explains that, in this this era, the best cars
from Japan still did not match the quality levels of foreign cars. Indeed, according to the data it is
only from the late 1960s that automobile exports from Japan started to pick up. In 1969, 560 thousand
passenger cars, that is, roughly a fifth of passenger cars produced in Japan, were exported abroad.
Exports kept increasing along with production increases, and in 1980 almost 4 million passenger cars
were exported, which means that more than half of passenger cars produced in Japan were sold
overseas.
Import data are shown separately in figure 3, as its scale is so tiny compared to production
and exports. Imports were kept low through the 1950s, and only started increasing in the 1970s. De-
spite the liberalization of imports, the highest figure recorded until 1980 was 64 thousand in 1979. Ja-
pan did liberalize trade and investment of its automotive sector, but the apparent imbalance between
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Infant industry argument for trade protection and Japanese automotive industrial policy
exports and imports gave rise to another issue, that is, trade frictions, particularly with the United
States.
4.Price/cost data
The following two questions should be asked in order to evaluate infant industry protection
policies: 1) What kind of protection took place and for how long? 2) Did costs go down during protec-
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2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
production export
Source: JAMA statistical yearbook, various years
60,000
54,517
50,000 46,285
45,480
42,218
40,416 41,395
40,000 36,922
30,000
24,759
19,080 18,551
20,000
15,244 14,352 15,000 15,748
12,185 12,881
9,339
10,000
5,311 6,684 6,179 5,450 5,994 5,646
3,540 4,310
0
1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Source: JAMA statistical yearbook, various years
tion? The first question has been mostly answered in the previous section. Data relevant to the sec-
ond question are presented in this section.
Data provided by Keizaihyoronsha ( 1965 ) show that in 1965 the retail price of Volkswagen
1200cc passenger car (VW1200) in Japan exceeded that of the Nissan Bluebird passenger car. The
Volkswagens were priced at 900 thousand Yen (although their Yen converted retail prices were 344
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Infant industry argument for trade protection and Japanese automotive industrial policy
thousand Yen in Germany), while the Nissans were 583 thousand Yen. The retail price of VW1200
was much higher in Japan than it was in Germany not only because of transportation and other
trade costs but also because of the 40% tariff imposed on imported cars. The cost composition esti-
mate of VW 1200 is shown in figure 4 : Its free on board (FOB) price is estimated as 460 thousand
Yen, and freight to Japan and insurance cost 7 thousand Yen. On top of this, a 40% import tariff (18
thousand Yen) and 15 % sales tax ( 7 thousand Yen) were added, and finally 12 thousand Yen was
needed for accessories and margins for importers/dealers.
The data suggest two things:
1) Protection was effective. If it were not for the 40% tariff, Volkswagen 1200cc passenger car could
have been sold at 720 thousand Yen. Considering the likely quality difference between European
and Japanese cars at the time, the Volkswagens would have been much more competitive in the
Japanese market.
2) The FOB price of VW1200 is estimated to have been around 460 thousand Yen. This suggests that
at around 1965, Japanese passenger cars (Nissan Bluebird in this case) still could not compete well
in the international market.
Although the above international comparison suggests that the production costs of Japanese
passenger cars were still relatively high in the mid-1960s, there is evidence that the costs did go
down when a longer time period is examined. According to Yamazawa (1986), Nissan Bluebird was
priced at 595 thousand Yen in 1959 and it was 619 thousand Yen in 1976, which is a 3.8% rise. During
Figure 4. Cost composition of VW1200 in Japan, 1965 (unit: ten thousand Yen)
90
Accessories and
importer/dealer margin, 12
80
Sales tax, 7
70
Import tariff, 18
60
40
30
FOB price, 46
20
10
0
Source: Author’s calculation based on Keizaihyoronsha (1965)
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『経済研究』(明治学院大学)第 153 号
the same period, overall consumer prices rose by 230%. This implies that the relative price of the car
decreased by 31.5%. Indeed, therefore, passenger cars had become much more affordable to the Japa-
nese public.
5.Concluding comments
Brazil started protecting its computer industry in 1977. Both imports and foreign firms’ activi-
ty in the country were blocked in order to promote Brazilian computer production. This policy was
kept in place until the 1990s. Luzio and Greenstein (1995) studied the case to find that the Brazilian
computer industry never caught up to the industry leaders. Instead, made-in-Brazil computers re-
mained more expensive than those available in the international market, and the adopted protection-
ist policy ended up generating net welfare losses in Brazil.
The outcome of the Japanese case of automobiles is clearly different from that of the Brazilian
computer industry case. The Japanese automobile industry did develop and automobiles did become
much more affordable to the consumers. Given the observed protection policy and the development
of the Japanese automobile industry, the bottom line shows that it is possible that the Japanese policy
of protection worked for the development of its auto industry. The causal relation remains unknown
since there could be other reasons, for instance, the economic development and rise of Japanese in-
come that increased the demand for automobiles.
The mid-1960s marked an important stage not only in the change in Japan’s international posi-
tion but also in the change of the automotive policy from protection to liberalization. The liberaliza-
tion process was very well synchronized with the development of the Japanese automobile industry,
and importantly it was not too delayed. Foreign currency quotas were abolished in 1965, when Japa-
nese cars were still somewhat lagging behind European cars in terms of cost and quality. It may be
said that the slightly early liberalization had a disciplining impact on Japanese manufacturers. At the
same time, however, if it were not for the foreign pressures to liberalize, the whole process could
have been much more delayed. The delay could have imposed larger dead weight losses on Japanese
society.
Numerous Asian governments, including those of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philip-
pines, and China, have adopted more or less similar automotive sector protection policies. It is of in-
terest to study how the policies and their outcomes compare with those of the Japanese experience.
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Infant industry argument for trade protection and Japanese automotive industrial policy
Appendix
Figure A1. Institutions and agents involved in the policymaking of Japan’s postwar au-
tomobile industry
Japanese consumers
Acknowledgement
I appreciate the financial support from a Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (16H06548) from
the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.
References
Luzio, Eduardo and Shane Greenstein. 1995. “Measuring the Performance of a Protected Infant Industry: The
Case of Brazilian Microcomputers” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 77, No. 4, pp. 622-633.
Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association. Jidoshatokeinenpo (Automobile statistical yearbook), various years.
Keizaihyoronsha. Nihon no jidoshakogyo (The automobile industry of Japan), various years.
Kobayashi, Shotaro. 2011. Nihonjidoshashakaishi (Social history of Japanese Automobiles). Tokyo: Kodansha.
Yamazawa, Ippei. 1986. Kokusaikeizaigaku (International Economics). Tokyo: Toyokeizaishinposha.
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