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daniel.schwartz@aqr.com
The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by AQR Capital Management, LLC (“AQR”) to be
reliable. However, AQR does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness,
nor does AQR recommend that the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision. This document has been provided
to you solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation, to
purchase any securities or other financial instruments, and may not be construed as such. This document is intended exclusively for the use
of the person to whom it has been delivered by AQR and it is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document is
subject to further review and revision. PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RISK DISCLOSURES ON THE LAST PAGE.
WHAT IS ARBITRAGE? risk that the deal fails – an event that typically results
in a large loss. Seen another way, arbitrageurs capture
Arbitrage strategies are often defined as riskless profit a risk premium in exchange for providing liquidity to
opportunities. They consist of the simultaneous those investors who no longer have a desire to hold
purchase and sale of two assets that are substantially shares in a target company and bear the risk of deal
similar or related, but that have different prices. By failure.
being long the “cheap asset” and short the “expensive
asset,” an arbitrageur seeks to profit from an eventual Most mergers fall into two general categories defined
price convergence. Since the real world presents very by the form of payment: cash mergers and stock
few truly riskless opportunities, arbitrage strategies mergers. InBev NV’s 2008 acquisition of Anheuser-
are more accurately defined as relative value trades Busch is an example of a cash merger. The day after
that offer attractive risk-adjusted returns. InBev announced its intention to purchase Anheuser-
Busch for $70 per share, Anheuser-Busch’s stock
For investors, especially in light of the events of price rose to $66.60. The typical merger arbitrage
2008, arbitrage has another desirable characteristic: trade would be to buy Anheuser-Busch for $66.60
low beta with respect to traditional asset classes. and to sell Anheuser-Busch stock to InBev for $70.00
While all types of arbitrage have some risk, in most upon consummation of the merger. In addition, the
cases this risk is largely independent of equity and arbitrageur would collect dividends on Anheuser-
debt markets. For this reason, arbitrage strategies are Busch stock paid prior to the merger closing
often referred to as “market-neutral”. Over the long date. Including $0.74/share in dividends, the spread
term, these market-neutral strategies can improve a between the offer price and the market price was
portfolio’s risk/return profile by reducing portfolio 6.2%. Amortizing this spread over the 126 days until
volatility through market cycles. deal completion provided a potential annualized
return of 19.1%.
COMMON TYPES OF ARBITRAGE Because the offer price in a cash merger is fixed,
capturing the arbitrage spread can be accomplished
In theory, arbitrage opportunities are possible for simply by purchasing the target stock. However, in a
virtually every kind of asset, wherever price discrep- stock merger, capturing the arbitrage spread requires
ancies occur. In practice, transaction costs and other the purchase of the target’s stock and the simultane-
frictions limit the investable universe of arbitrage ous short selling of the acquirer’s stock. The 2008
strategies. This paper focuses on several common acquisition of Merrill Lynch (MER) by Bank of
arbitrage strategies, namely: merger arbitrage, convert- America (BAC) is a recent example of a stock merger.
ible bond arbitrage, and other event-driven arbitrage BAC offered 0.86 shares of its stock for each share of
strategies. MER, an offer that amounted to $25.40 per share.
After the announcement, MER jumped to $22.18,
Merger Arbitrage leaving a deal spread of 14.5% over the following
107 days to expected completion, providing an
When a merger is announced, the target company’s attractive potential annualized return of 58.7%. The
stock price generally increases, but not fully to the typical arbitrage trade would be to buy MER stock
price offered by the acquirer. The remaining spread and to sell short 0.86 BAC shares for each MER share
reflects the risk that the merger will not be completed. purchased. Arbitrageurs who implemented this trade
Arbitrageurs can earn this positive spread for deals isolated the spread between the two stock prices, and
that are successful if they are willing to assume the created a market-neutral investment whose primary
4%
2%
Monthly Return
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Source: Hedge Fund Research, Inc. © 2009, www.hedgefundresearch.com
risk was that of deal failure. In this way, merger typically modest and downturns rarely last longer
arbitrage is analogous to writing insurance against than 1-3 months (see Exhibit 1) .
deal failure. A merger arbitrageur collects a positive
spread on the many merger deals that are completed, Convertible Bond Arbitrage
but faces the potential for loss when a merger fails.
A convertible bond is a corporate bond that can, at
By investing in a sufficiently large number of merger the option of the holder, be converted into common
deals, and by employing appropriate risk controls, stock. Because of the conversion feature, a convert-
the arbitrageur is able to build a portfolio that seeks ible bond is a hybrid security that bundles together a
to generate attractive returns with little systematic corporate bond and an equity call option.
risk. However, as first demonstrated by Mitchell and
Pulvino (The Journal of Finance, 2001)i, in a falling Each convertible bond has a conversion ratio which
stock market, merger arbitrage has a historical beta is the number of shares into which the bond may be
of approximately 0.3. As the market declines, cash converted. The conversion price is the stock price at
buyers often seek to re-negotiate the purchase price which the holder is indifferent between receiving par
or terminate the merger, and thus cash mergers have value and converting the bond into common stock.
a greater tendency to fail when markets decline. Therefore, the conversion price is effectively the
However, the impact on merger arbitrage strategies is strike price of the embedded stock option.
1
Conversion ratio 76.1905* Market price of option $0.69=$52.49 3
Market price of TWC $17.99 * Exchange ratio of spin-off 0.2496=$4.49
2
Value of straight bond $90.68+ Value of embedded option $52.49=$143.17 4
Market price of TWX $8.14- Value of TWC when exchanged $4.49=$3.65
5
Jefferies Equity Research, November 2008
6
Fair value of stub $6.50 + Market value of exchanged shares of
TWC $4.49= $10.99
7
Market price of Altria $86.15 - .7 Market price of Kraft $31.85 = $63.85
HFRI Merger HFRI Convertible HFRI Event S&P 500 Merrill Lynch
Arbitrage Index Arbitrage Index Arbitrage Index Index 3-Month T-Bill Index
Annualized Return 9.5% 8.5% 12.2% 5.4% 3.9%
Volatility 4.3% 6.6% 7.0% 15.1% 0.5%
Sharpe Ratio 1.24 0.69 1.14 0.1 0.0
Alpha (annual) 5.1% 4.2% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Beta to S&P 500 0.15 0.19 0.32 1.00 0.00
Arbitrage strategies have a long history of attractive To illustrate the diversification benefits of arbitrage
risk-adjusted returns. Exhibit 2 shows the perform- strategies, we compare two hypothetical portfolios:
ance of the HFRI Merger Arbitrage, HFRI Convertible a standard portfolio to a hypothetical enhanced
Arbitrage, and HFRI Event-Driven Arbitrage Indices portfolio that includes arbitrage strategies from the
compared to U.S. equity and U.S. Treasury Indices. period January 1990 through July 2009. The standard
portfolio consists of 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and
The alphas, or excess returns, of the arbitrage strategies 10% cash 8. The modified portfolio features a 15%
range from 2.5% to 7% with volatilities between 4% arbitrage component, taken equally from stocks,
and 7%, substantially lower than the U.S. equity bonds, and cash and placed into the HFRI Merger
market. Low betas relative to the S&P 500 and attrac- Arbitrage, Convertible Arbitrage, and Event-Drive
tive Sharpe ratios are key reasons investors look to Arbitrage Indices. As shown in Exhibit 3 , the inclu-
diversify their portfolios with arbitrage strategies. sion of arbitrage strategies enhances returns while
decreasing volatility, resulting in a much improved
Sharpe ratio 9.
8
Stock returns are taken from the S&P 500, bond returns are taken from the
Lehman Aggregate Bond Index and cash returns are taken from the Merrill
Lynch 3 Month T-Bill Index.
9
Hypothetical performance has many inherent limitations and is for
illustrative purposes only. No representation is being made that any fund
or account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those
shown herein.
i
Mitchell, Mark and Todd Pulvino, Characteristics of Risk and Return
in Risk Arbitrage, Journal of Finance, December, 2001.
ii
Jefferies Equity Research Report, Special Opportunities, November 20, 2008.
DISCLOSURES:
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of AQR Capital Management, LLC its
affiliates, or its employees.
The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by author to be reliable. However, the author does not make any
representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor does the author recommend that the attached
information serve as the basis of any investment decision. This document has been provided to you solely for information purposes and does not
constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation, to purchase any securities or other financial instruments, and may
not be construed as such. This document is intended exclusively for the use of the person to whom it has been delivered by the author, and it is not to
be reproduced or redistributed to any other person.
Hypothetical performance results (e.g., quantitative backtests) have many inherent limitations, some of which, but not all, are described herein.
No representation is being made that any fund or account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown herein. In fact, there are
frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently realized by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical
trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading.
For example, the ability to withstand losses or adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely
affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading
program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results, all of which can adversely affect actual trading
results. Hypothetical performance results are presented for illustrative purposes only.
The arbitrage transactions described herein are strictly for educational purposes and are in no way a recommendation of specific securities or services.