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FIG U R E 1. 6
INT RA-COM MONW EA LT H T RAD E I N GO O DS AN D S E R V I C ES, 2010–16 ( US$ M IL L ION)
and Development (OECD) and WTO
have developed an experimental data
700
set on bilateral services trade flows.
Despite certain gaps, this database
600 appears to be the best possible source
of information. This OECD-WTO BaTIS
500
data set is used to provide an updated
400 estimate of intra-Commonwealth
trade in services. Because the new
300
data set contains information only
200
up to 2012 a figure for 2016 is derived
based on previous growth rates (while
100 taking into account the global trade
slowdown between 2012 and 2016).
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
However, a major challenge is that,
Services Goods in recent times, particularly during
2015 and 2016, the world economy
So u rce : Co m m o nwealth Sec retari at (calc ulated usi ng U NCTADStat a nd projections
d e r ive d f ro m O EC D-W TO BaTIS d ata) has seen an unprecedented decline
in global trade growth. An analysis of
the growth rate of trade in goods and
services from UNCTADStat shows that
Australia and the UK also contributed 10 In relation to intra-Commonwealth
Commonwealth global trade declined
per cent and 9.6 per cent of total intra- services exports, expressed as a
considerably. However, it was not only
Commonwealth exports (Figure 1.8). percentage of total world trade, the
Commonwealth global trade that
South Africa’s intra-Commonwealth highest proportions are accounted for
was affected; during 2015 and 2016,
export share of 7.3 per cent is the largest by the Pacific (Figure 1.10). The UK’s
global trade in goods and services
from an SSA member country. The UK, share of intra-Commonwealth services
fell by US$3.1 trillion. More than 180
India and Singapore constitute by far exports within the categories analysed
economies experienced an absolute
the largest importers from within the (as indicated in Figure 1.6) is around the
decline in their exports in 2015, and
Commonwealth. A large proportion same as that of Canada: approximately
116 reported falling exports in 2016.
of imports into Australia, Malaysia 11.5 per cent of its total services exports
and Canada are also undertaken are destined for Commonwealth
Given this unprecedented decline
on an intra-Commonwealth basis. trade partners. Intra-Commonwealth
in global trade, it is extremely
SSA Commonwealth members services trade accounts for between
challenging to make a medium- to
have maintained their share of 11 and 50 per cent of total services
long-term projection for global
intra-Commonwealth trade at exports by member countries.
and Commonwealth trade flows.
around 16 per cent in recent years.
The current pace of trade recovery
Similarly, the Caribbean and Pacific
countries have also maintained their
1.4 Prospects for could be more subdued, since
there are concerns about US policy
shares at around 1 per cent each. intra-Commonwealth reversals, trade protectionism
In relation to the composition of trade and popular discontent about
intra-Commonwealth services trade, globalisation and dubiety of its
travel comprises the largest share of benefits in many countries.
intra-Commonwealth trade in services, Since the 2015 Commonwealth Trade
followed by transportation and then Review, new sources of bilateral services To update the Commonwealth
other business, which is a catch-all trade data have become available. The trade projections, a cautious
for corporate services (Figure 1.9). Organisation for Economic Co-operation approach is adopted. The WTO’s
12 \ Commonwealth Trade Review 2018
FIGU RE 1 .7
INT RA-COM MONW EA LTH T RAD E I N GO O DS B Y M E M B E RS AS A P ERCE NTAGE OF TOTA L WORL D TRA DE , 2016 ( % )
Nauru
Swaziland
Lesotho
Botswana
Namibia
Tuvalu
Papua New Guinea
Tonga
Fiji
Kiribati
Malawi
Samoa
Vanuatu
Solomon Islands
Zambia
Mozambique
Uganda
Brunei Darussalam
Dominica
Grenada
Mauritius
Sri Lanka
St Vincent and the Grenadines
Rwanda
Bangladesh
Seychelles
Barbados
Guyana
Tanzania
New Zealand
Kenya
Antigua and Barbuda
Ghana
Sierra Leone
Cameroon
St Kitts and Nevis
South Africa
Singapore
Malaysia
Australia
Malta
Saint Lucia
Jamaica
India
Pakistan
Nigeria
The Bahamas
The Gambia
United Kingdom
Trinidad and Tobago
Belize
Cyprus
Canada
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Exports
Imports
Sou rce : Co m m o nwe a l t h Sec retari at (calc ulated usi ng U N CTA DStat data )
Part 1: Commonwealth trade and investment trends \ 13
TAB L E 1.3
S HAR E OF MERC H A ND I S E E X P O RTS AN D I M P O RTS O F CO M M ONW E A LTH COUNTRIES BY REGION, 2016
Exports Imports
Value of intra-
Share of Commonwealth Value of intra-Commonwealth Share of Commonwealth
Commonwealth Commonwealth
total (%) exports (US$ million) total (%)
group imports (US$ million)
F IG U R E 1. 8
COU NTRY S H A R ES OF I N T RA- CO M M O N WE ALT H E X P O RTS ( L E F T) A ND IM PORTS ( RIGH T) , 2016 ( % )
Nigeria Bangladesh
Australia Australia
India Singapore
Malaysia India
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
latest projections for developed and 2017 and 2018, amid major policy although it might take a few more years
developing countries in the medium uncertainties, is sustained into 2020.5 to reach US$1 trillion, as predicted
term are used. It is assumed that in the 2015 Commonwealth Trade
Commonwealth trade will grow at With these assumptions and caveats Review. In this scenario, intra-
the same rate, with the same rate of about the global trade situation, the Commonwealth trade is projected
expansion for intra-Commonwealth results from the projection exercise to reach $700 billion by 2020, while
trade. It is assumed that the show that intra-Commonwealth proactive policy measures can trigger
global trade recovery expected in trade is broadly on a growth track, even greater gains (Figure 1.11).
14 \ Commonwealth Trade Review 2018
FIGU RE 1 . 9
COMPOSITION OF INTRA-CO M M O N WE ALT H T RAD E I N S E R V I C ES, NE A REST Y E A R ( % )
is considerably more than their share
of global GDP, which is approximately
2%
14 per cent (Table 1.4). However, FDI
Government, inflows into the Commonwealth have
n.i.e.
been uneven: 10 members received
1%
Personal, cultural more than 90 per cent of inflows
and recreational services between 2010 and 2016. The top five
23% recipients were the UK, Singapore,
Other business
Canada, Australia and India, in that
order. These five countries accounted
for nearly 80 per cent of total FDI
2%
Royalties/ flows into the Commonwealth.
licence fees
4% Geographical proximity invariably
Computer and plays a role in determining the
information
investment relationship between
5%
Financial the Commonwealth countries.
For example, Mauritius is the largest
4% investor in India (accounting for more
Insurance
than 20 per cent of total FDI inward
1% stock in India between 2010 and
Construction
2015). South Africa has significant
2% investment in other Commonwealth
Communications
SSA countries, such as the SACU
32% countries, and Mozambique and Nigeria.
Travel
24% In 2015, some US$3.6 trillion outward
Transportation FDI stocks were registered in the
Sou rce : Co m m o nwe a l t h Sec retari at (calc ulated fro m O EC D -WTO Ba TI S data ) Commonwealth and it was estimated
that some 20 per cent of these stocks
came from intra-Commonwealth
investments – or around $720 billion
(UNCTAD, 2017a). Intra-Commonwealth
1.5 Trends in Overall, global FDI flows into the investment remained steady at 20 per
Commonwealth are increasing
intra-Commonwealth (Figure 1.12). In 2017, inflows
cent of total outward FDI stock from
the Commonwealth since 2010. Intra-
investment were estimated at US$250 billion Commonwealth investment is likely
compared to almost $430 billion in to remain stable in 2016 at about 20
2016; the latter boost in FDI was per cent of total outward FDI stock.
1.5.1 Commonwealth FDI flows in a owed to three merger and acquisition
global context megadeals in the UK (UNCTAD, 2018). 1.5.2 Trends in productive investment
The accumulated FDI stock in the in the Commonwealth
Global FDI fell by 16 per cent in 2017,
Commonwealth is now over $5 trillion.6
to an estimated US$1.52 trillion, from In terms of FDI flows within the
$1.8 trillion in 2016. This is in stark The Commonwealth is a net recipient Commonwealth, productive
contrast with world GDP and trade of global FDI flows. Commonwealth investment – also known as greenfield
growth, which saw improvements member countries held about one-fifth investment – is increasingly important,
in 2017 (UNCTAD, 2018). of global FDI stock in 2016; and this especially to help advance the
Part 1: Commonwealth trade and investment trends \ 15
FIG U R E 1. 10
INT RA-COM MONW EA LT H T RAD E I N S E R V I C ES B Y M E M B E RS AS A PE RCE NTAGE OF TOTA L WORL D TRA DE , NE A REST Y E A R ( % )
Canada
United Kingdom
Dominica
Belize
St Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Cyprus
Jamaica
Cameroon
Singapore
Sierra Leone
India
St Vincent and the Grenadines
Seychelles
Antigua and Barbuda
Grenada
Nigeria
Trinidad and Tobago
The Bahamas
Pakistan
Malta
Rwanda
Mozambique
South Africa
Malaysia
Tanzania
Ghana
Namibia
Kenya
Australia
Guyana
Zambia
Uganda
Barbados
Lesotho
Mauritius
Sri Lanka
Vanuatu
Bangladesh
Malawi
Tonga
Brunei Darussalam
Botswana
Papua New Guinea
Kiribati
Samoa
Swaziland
Fiji
New Zealand
Solomon Islands
FIGU RE 1 . 11
INT RA-COMMONW EA LTH T RAD E P ROS P ECTS B Y 2 0 2 0 : T H E I M P ACT OF TH E GLOBA L TRA DE
types of FDI, for example flows emanating
S LOW DOW N, 2010– 20 ( U S $ B I L L I O N ) from mergers and acquisitions. This
is because it represents new capital
1,200 investment and leads to an increased
1,000
number of jobs in the host economy.
FIGU RE 1 . 12
INCREAS ING TR END OF F DI F LOWS TO T H E CO M M O N WE ALT H, 1 991–2017 ( US$ M IL L ION)
500
400
300
200
100
0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
TAB L E 1.4
FD I IN TH E COMMONW E ALT H , 2 0 1 5 – 1 7 ( U S $ B I L L I O N , % )
almost three times more in each
other than in other countries.
FIG U R E 1. 13
TOP S OU RC ES OF INTRA- CO M M O N WE ALT H GR E E N F I E L D I N VESTM E NT, 2005 ( L E F T) A ND 2016 ( RIGH T) ( US$ BIL L ION)
38% 26%
UK UK
1%
Others
2% 5%
South Africa Others
4%
Singapore
4%
6% South Africa
India
11% 14%
Malaysia Singapore
19%
India
14%
12% Malaysia
Australia 11%
Australia
26% 7%
Canada Canada
intra-Commonwealth investment China for the first time as the biggest global slowdown is likely to be slower
driven by India. In comparison, the destination for greenfield FDI. than those of the countries upon which
share contributed by Australia has While greenfield FDI contributes to they depend. Intra-Commonwealth
remained relatively stable. A decline in economic development and growth, FDI inflows to LDCs, however, have
intra-Commonwealth investment is high-growth economies attract more proved resilient to these impacts.
apparent for Canada, between 2005 investments, creating a virtuous
While the percentage of global FDI to
and 2016. Table 1.5 summarises the cycle of growth and investment.
LDCs declined by as much as 13 per
available data on job creation derived
Using simple trend analysis, cent in 2016, intra-Commonwealth LDC
from the project investments.
cumulative intra-Commonwealth FDI investment fell by only 2 per cent in
Major destinations of intra- greenfield investment is estimated to the same period, suggesting a greater
Commonwealth greenfield investment reach approximately US$870 billion concentration of intra-Commonwealth
by 2020 under certain conditions. investment in LDCs in comparison with
Between 2005 and 2016, India remained
inflows to LDCs from the rest of the
the top recipient of greenfield FDI While several Commonwealth
world. This pattern can be seen from
from the Commonwealth, more than developing countries are becoming
Figure 1.14. An average of 13 per cent of
doubling the amount it received over 10 increasingly attractive destinations
intra-Commonwealth FDI was invested
years. In 2016, Bangladesh, Singapore, for global FDI, the broader global
in Commonwealth LDCs between 2003
Nigeria and Sri Lanka emerged as the investment environment for LDCs
and 2016, aggregating a total of US$81
other major destinations attracting as a whole remains structurally
billion over this period; and the number
such FDI from the Commonwealth, weak, in large part because of the
of Commonwealth FDI projects to these
whereas Canada, Malaysia, Pakistan aforementioned economic slowdown
member countries has increased by 1.6
and Tanzania lost ground in relative and fall in commodity prices since
times since 2003, or 160 per cent. Five
terms. India is the leading country 2014. Since most LDCs are commodity
Commonwealth LDCs – Bangladesh,
for attracting greenfield FDI, not only exporters, and depend heavily on the
Mozambique, Uganda, Tanzania and
from the Commonwealth but also economic performance of advanced
Zambia – have received 89 per cent of
from the world. In 2015, it overtook economies, their recovery from the
this total. Papua New Guinea, which
TABLE 1 .5 is the highest recipient of FDI flows
MA JOR SOU RC ES OF INTRA- CO M M O N WE ALT H I N V EST M E N T AN D JOB CRE ATION
among Commonwealth small states,
recorded a remarkable total of $9
No. of FDI No. of jobs No. of FDI No. of jobs billion in intra-Commonwealth FDI
projects created projects created investment between 2003 and 2016.
Major sources 2005 2016
While analysis suggests no relationship
United Kingdom 137 34,949 251 29,845 between greenfield investment and the
Canada 76 17,306 72 5,566 presence of policy instruments such as a
bilateral investment treaty, other policy
Australia 49 10,828 100 10,047
variables such as contract enforcement
Malaysia 19 5,575 15 10,183 and the protection of minority investors
may exert an influence. Because
India 65 6,647 97 10,252
greenfield investment is the creation
Singapore 26 8,529 51 16,817 of new capital, investment policy
South Africa 16 3,172 54 4,814 frameworks will influence investors’
decisions. Recent trends are suggestive
Others 25 2,961 86 5,509
of the Commonwealth advantage in
Total 413 89,967 726 93,033 practice and the continued development
Source: fDi Markets (The Financial Times) of intra-Commonwealth trade and
investment networks, building on
Part 1: Commonwealth trade and investment trends \ 19
FIG U R E 1. 14
INT RA-COM MONW EA LT H I N V EST M E N T I N CO M M O N WE ALT H L DCS, 2003–16 ( % )
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Note : Co m m o nwe a lth LD Cs are Banglad esh, Ki ri b ati , Le sotho, Ma lawi, Moza m biqu e, Rwa nda , S ier ra Leone, Solom on I sla nds, Ta nzan i a ,
Th e Ga m bia , Tu va l u , Ugand a, Vanuatu and Zamb i a.
So u rce : Co m m o nwealth Sec retari at (calc ulated usi ng fDi Ma r kets (The Fina ncia l Tim es) data )
common frameworks and doing reinforce intra-Commonwealth of strong and diverse diasporas to
business practices (see Part 4). trade and investment flows. catalyse innovation and investment
and to bridge into new markets; and
Even without any formal arrangements,
making use of the Commonwealth
proactive initiatives by Commonwealth
1.6 Conclusion and member countries can generate
as a platform for establishing and
strengthening contacts between
way forward new commercial opportunities. For
traders and investors, including micro-,
example, Commonwealth members
small and medium-sized enterprises
could focus on achieving improved
(MSMEs) and young entrepreneurs.
The already substantial trade between trade logistics and implementing trade
Commonwealth members and its facilitation measures; tackling non-tariff At a coordinated pan-Commonwealth
rising relative significance will call barriers; harnessing new technologies, level, member countries can
for leveraging the Commonwealth including for e-commerce, financial strengthen dialogue and cooperation,
effect for greater trade gains. While technology (fintech) and transforming and share country experiences and
Commonwealth members enjoy an trade and productive capacities; best practices, to promote greater
inherent trade advantage that promotes utilising the opportunities to develop connectivity in the Commonwealth.
their intra-Commonwealth trade, this regional supply chains in sectors Such a connectivity agenda could
unique factor has not been driven by any where Commonwealth regions have focus on issues of physical, digital,
coordinated policy interventions like the comparative advantages; promoting regulatory, business-to-business
ones under regional or bilateral trading a gender-responsive approach to and supply-side connectivity, all
blocs. Productive capacity-building the development of trade policy framed by the need for inclusive and
and improved trade performance and to promote women’s economic sustainable trade to contribute towards
in individual member countries will empowerment; exploiting the potential the achievement of the SDGs.