JUGOS FUNCIONALES, PRONÓSTICO BASADO EN SUAVIZACIÓN

EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

diferencia entre
pronostico
Mes t ventas reales Yt venta real y
Yt´ pronostico |et|
1 91 91 0
2 64 91 27
3 89 85.6 3.4
4 66 86.28 20.28
5 57 82.224 25.224
6 112 77.1792 34.8208
7 77 84.14336 7.14336
8 58 82.714688 24.714688
9 113 77.7717504 35.2282496
10 98 84.8174003 13.18259968
11 65 87.4539203 22.453920256
12 93 82.9631362 10.0368637952
13 82 84.970509 2.9705089638
14 71 84.3764072 13.3764071711
15 98 81.7011257 16.2988742631
16 75 84.9609006 9.9609005895
17 102 82.9687205 19.0312795284
18 76 86.7749764 10.7749763773
19 59 84.6199811 25.6199811018
20 122 79.4959849 42.5040151185
21 88 87.9967879 0.0032120948
22 104 87.9974303 16.0025696759
23 73 91.1979443 18.1979442593
24 52 87.5583554 35.5583554074
25 111 80.4466843 30.553315674
26 90 86.5573475 3.4426525392
27 75 87.245878 12.2458779686
28 110 84.7967024 25.2032976251
29 85 89.8373619 4.8373618999
30 121 88.8698895 32.1301104801
ERROR 18.073204069
α 0.2

0≤α≤1
 TE VERDE, PRONÓSTICO SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL DOBLE

Te verde ventas
Mes "t" At At´ at bt
reales "Yt"

1 15 15 15 15 0
2 25 17 15.4 18.6 0.4
3 33 20.2 16.36 24.04 0.96
4 31 22.36 17.56 27.16 1.2
5 46 27.088 19.4656 34.7104 1.9056
6 64 34.4704 22.46656 46.47424 3.00096
7 72 41.97632 26.368512 57.584128 3.901952
8 68 47.181056 30.5310208 63.8310912 4.1625088
9 79 53.5448448 35.1337856 71.955904 4.6027648
10 81 59.03587584 39.91420365 78.15754803 4.780418048
11 101 67.42870067 45.41710305 89.44029829 5.502899405
12 102 74.34296054 51.20227455 97.48364653 5.785171497
13 110 81.47436843 57.25669333 105.6920435 6.054418776
14 115 88.17949474 63.44125361 112.9177359 6.184560284
15 128 96.1435958 69.98172205 122.3054695 6.540468437
16 150 106.9148766 77.36835296 136.4614003 7.386630918
17 152 115.9319013 85.08106263 146.78274 7.712709669
18 152 123.145521 92.69395432 153.5970878 7.612891683
19 166 131.7164168 100.4984468 162.9343869 7.804492504
20 169 139.1731335 108.2333842 170.1128828 7.73493733
21 172 145.7385068 115.7344087 175.7426049 7.501024525
22 180 152.5908054 123.105688 182.0759228 7.371279349
23 201 162.2726443 130.9390793 193.6062094 7.833391262
24 199 169.6181155 138.6748865 200.5613444 7.735807236
25 211 177.8944924 146.5188077 209.2701771 7.84392117
26 219 186.1155939 154.4381649 217.7930229 7.919357241
27 227 194.2924751 162.409027 226.1759233 7.970862037
28 235 202.4339801 170.4140176 234.4539426 8.004990625
29 243 210.5471841 178.4406509 242.6537173 8.026633296
30 250 218.4377473 186.4400702 250.4354244 7.999419274
PRONOSTICO P=1

ERROR
ONENCIAL DOBLE
diferencia entre P α
Yt venta real y
pronostico |et| 1 0.2
0≤α≤1
15 10
19 14
25 6 Yt= real
28.36 17.64 At= valor doblemente atenuado
36.616 27.384 at= similar a la interseccion
49.4752 22.5248 bt= similar a la medicion de la pendiente de una recta
61.48608 6.51392 Yt= pronostico
67.9936 11.0064 |et| = diferencia absoluta
76.5586688 4.4413312 α= constante de atenuacion
82.93796608 18.06203392 P1= periodos futuros
94.9431977 7.056802304
103.268818 6.7311819776
111.7464623 3.2535376896
119.1022962 8.8977038377
128.845938 21.154062019
143.8480312 8.1519687742
154.4954497 2.4954496534
161.2099795 4.7900205391
170.7388794 1.7388793593
177.8478201 5.8478201199
183.2436294 3.2436294019
189.4472022 11.5527978337
201.4396006 2.4396006488
208.2971517 2.7028483483
217.1140982 1.8859017725
225.7123801 1.2876198931
234.1467853 0.8532146946
242.4589332 0.5410667797
250.6803506 0.680350557
258.4348436

ERROR 8.030239356
de una recta
 ENSALADA DE FRUTAS,PRONÓSTICO SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL TRIPLE

mes "t" Yt At Tt St Yt

-2 1
-1 1
0 1
1 121 121 0 1
2 78 116.7 -0.86 0.867352185 121
3 76 111.856 -1.6568 0.871778 115.84
4 65 105.67928 -2.560784 0.846027414 110.1992
5 107 103.5066464 -2.48315392 1.013500017 103.118496
6 115 104.1798866 -1.8518751 0.961955274 87.62294695
7 132 107.2366798 -0.87014143 1.015435643 89.2073092
8 88 106.1314387 -0.91716136 0.839280661 89.98900743
9 79 102.4876201 -1.46249282 0.916429933 106.6346719
10 77 98.92714472 -1.88208933 0.888513395 97.18165403
11 102 97.38549958 -1.81400049 1.028214928 98.54300826
12 126 101.0272055 -0.7228592 1.002443919 80.21131089
13 144 105.9870606 0.413683654 1.093320526 91.92190537
14 93 106.2275914 0.379053079 0.883299541 94.53848649
15 75 103.2401748 -0.29424085 0.907513509 109.6145433
16 64 99.03573765 -1.07628012 0.859958898 103.1975256
17 111 98.31606973 -1.00495768 1.107597024 107.1010857
18 137 103.0900282 0.150825543 1.061553932 85.95486059
19 152 109.6658303 1.435820861 1.098919629 93.69246944
20 108 112.5502258 1.72553579 0.899803978 95.54285348
21 96 111.5155977 1.173503005 1.008904663 126.5714935
22 87 109.6157233 0.558827539 0.954405062 119.6255579
23 124 110.4409055 0.612098468 1.108460735 121.0729765
24 143 115.8400539 1.569508444 1.033666688 99.92593474
25 162 121.7256237 2.432720732 1.137687575 118.4550549
26 110 123.2680147 2.254654776 0.929588836 118.4973525
27 98 121.8114915 1.512419184 0.98688516 139.1369505
28 88 119.5049022 0.748617492 0.914748599 127.4758183
29 132 119.8306501 0.664043566 1.123234372 136.8109352
30 154 125.0116883 1.567442494 1.050507226 112.0105221
error
ENCIAL TRIPLE

error
L 4
α 0.1
β 0.2
γ 0.4

43 α= constante de atenuacion (0 < α < 1)

39.84 β= constante de la atenuacion de la estimulacion de tendencia (0 < β < 1)
45.1992 γ= constante de la atenuacion de la estacionalidad (0 < γ < 1)
3.881504 At= valor atenuado en el periodo t
27.3770530521 Tt= estimacion de la tendencia del periodo t
42.7926907961 St= estimacion de la estacionalidad del periodo t
1.989007429 L= longitud de la estacionalidad
27.6346718606 P= numero de periodos a pronosticar
20.1816540311
3.4569917363
45.7886891064
52.0780946262
1.5384864874
34.614543294
39.1975255571
3.8989143307
51.0451394116
58.3075305566
12.4571465218
30.5714934674
32.6255578847
2.927023464
43.0740652583
43.5449451058
8.4973525002
41.1369504965
39.4758182638
4.8109351922
41.9894779189
29.0666366327
endencia (0 < β < 1)