Soal-soal Decision tree

1. *Suppose the marketing manager of a firm is trying to decide whether or not to

market a new product and at what price to sell it.
The profit to be made depends upon whether or not a competitor will introduce
a similar product and upon what price the competitor charges

note: that there are two decisions:

- introduce the new product or not
- the price to charge

likewise, there are two event:

- competition introduces a competitive product or not
- the competitor’s price
The timing or sequence of these decisions and event are very important in this
decisions. If the marketing manager must act before knowing whether or not
competitor has a similar product, the price may be different than with such
knowledge. A decision tree is useful in this type of situation, since it displays
the order in which decision are made and events occur.

Analysis of the decision problem

---------------------------------------
To analyze a decision tree, we begin at the end of the tree and work backwards. For
each set of event branches, the EMV is calculated as illustrated, and for each set of
decision branches, the one with the highest EMV is selected.

Figure 1 for example. First ,the EMVs are calculated for the event nodes associated
with competitor price. For example, the EMV of $ 5,000 in the top most right circle
in figure 1 represents the sum of the product or probabilities for high, medium ,and
low prices times the respective conditional profits:

EMV = (0.3)(150) + (0.5) (0) + (0.2) (-200) = 5

The other values are computed similarly.

Now if we move back on decision tree to the second decision point , we are faced
with two decision situations. The first –when a competitive product has been intro-
duced involves setting a high, medium, or low price with expected profits of $5,000 ,
$ 70,000 , and -$ 50,000 ,respectively. Assume the choice is the one with highest
expected profits  the medium price. A mark II is placed on the lines related to the
other alternatives, indicating that they are nonoptimal, and the expected profit
$ 70,000 is attached to the upper box of the second decision point.

When no competitive product is introduced, the best choice is a high price, with
profit of $500,000. At the event point to the left, an expected value of $ 156,000 is
computed by multiplying the expected profit given a competitive product ($70,000)
by its probability 0,8 and adding the profit given no competitive product ($500,000)
times its probability of 0,2.

The EMV = (0,8)(70) + (0,2)(500) = 156

Finally, the decision to market the product is made, since the expected net profit of
$156,000 is greater than the zero profit from not marketing product.
Strategy : Introduce the product and charge a high price if there is no competitive
entry , but charge a medium price if there is competition.

2. *A company has the options now of building a full-size plant or small plant that
can be expanded later. The decision depends primarily on future demands for
the product the plant will manufacture. The contruction of full size plant can be
justified economically if the level of demand is high. Otherwise , it maybe ad-
visable to contruct a small plant now and then decide in two years whether is
should be expanded.
The multistage decision problem arises here because if the company decides to
to build small plant now, a future decision must be made in two years regarding
expansion (assuming that it is decided to construct a small plant now).

Suppose that company is interested in studying the problem over a 10 year period
A market survey indicates that the probabilities of having high and low demands
over the next 10 years are 0,75 and 0,25, respectively.The immediate construction
of a large plant will cost $ 5 million and a small plant will cost only $1,000,000.
The expansion of the small plant 2 years from now is estimated to cost
$4,2million.
Estimates of annual income for each of the alternatives are given as follows
1. Full size plant and high (low) demand will tield &1,000,000 ($300,000)
annually
2. Small plant and low demand will yield $ 200,000 annually
3. Small plant and high demand will yield $ 250,000 for each of the 10 years
4. Expanded small plant with high (low) demand will yield $900,000
($200,000) annually
5. Small plant with no expansion and high demand in the first two years
followed by low demand will yield $200,000 in each of the remaining 8
years

3. Seorang penguasa pupuk alam ingin memutuskan apakah akan mengadakan peng-
galian sebuah gunung yang mengandung pupuk alam. Menurut perkiraan orang
orang yang berpengalaman, kemungkinan adanya deposit yang sedikit (S),cukup
(C) dan banyak (B) berturut-turut adalah 0,5 ; 0,25 ; dan 0,25. S berarti rugi se-
besar Rp 100 juta; C berarti untung Rp 100 juta dan B berarti untung Rp 500 juta.
Untuk mendapatkan informasi yang lebih tajam, dia bisa menyewa konsultan geo-
logi dengan biaya Rp 30 juta. Konsultan ini akan mengadakan pengeboran dan
menaksir kemungkinan adanya deposit pupuk alam secara lebih akurat. Tabel
 hubungan antara rekomendasi konsultan dan kemungkinan adanya deposit adalah
sebagai berikut:
------------------------------------------------------------
Rekomendasi
Deposit: ------------------------------------
Baik Tidak Total
------------------------------------------------------------
S 0,2 0,8 1
C 0,6 0,4 1
B 0,8 0,2 1
-------------------------------------------------------------
Ditanya :

a. Gambarlah decision tree dari masalah yang dihadapi si pengusaha, beserta

pay-off nya.
b. Apakah yang harus di putuskan oleh si pengusaha berdasar EMV?
c. Bila saudara menjadi konsultan bisnis, tanpa adanya informasi lain, apa yang
akan saudara sarankan pada si pengusaha (sebagai interpretasi hasil butir b)?.

4. Sebuah perusahaan pembuat suku cadang AC mobil, meramalkan terjadinya kena-

ikkan permintaan terhadap produk tertentu yang diproduksinya. Untuk mening-
katkan kapasitas produksi suku cadang tersebut, perusahaan sedang mempertim-
bangkan 3 langkah alternative, yaitu:
- Pasang Mesin Baru (MB)
- Dengan Kerja Lembur (KL)
- Menbiarkan keadaan seperti sekarang (SS)
Kemudian perusahaan membuat membuat tabel kemungkinan Permintaan beserta
Pay off-nya sebagai berikut:

(dalam jutaan rupiah)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Langkah perusahaan Demand Turun Demand Naik
Probability=0,3 Probabilitas=0,7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MB 260 440
KL 300 420
SS 300 340
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pertanyaan: gambarlah Decision Tree dan ambillah EMV tertinggi.

5. Bila untuk soal No.4 di atas dipakai jasa konsultan (dengan biaya Rp 10.000.000)
dengan kemungkinan hasil sebagai berikut:
 keadaan laporan konsultan total
pasar ------------------------------------ probability
Baik Tidak Baik
Favourable Unfavourable

Demand naik 0,80 0,20 1,00

Demand turun 0,10 0,90 1,00
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pertanyaan :
Gambar Decisioan Tree dan bagaimana keputusan perusahaan sebaiknya?
(pakailah prior & Posterior Probability)
Dengan menganalisis matriks pay off pada soal no.4 diatas, bagaimana keputusan
nya, bila perusahaan memakai:
- a/.kriteria Maximax
- b/.kriteria Maximin
- c/.kriteria Minimax Regret
- d/.EMV
- e/.EOL

6. *Daily demand for cases of Royal Cola Soda at Helen’s Food Shop has always
been five, six, or seven cases. Develop a decision tree that illustrates the decision
alternatives as to whether to stock five, six, or seven cases.

7. A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private cli-

nic. If the market is not favorable, they could realize a net profit of $ 100.000. If
the market is not favorable, they could lose & 40.000. They have also been appro-
ached by a marketing research team that will perform a study of the market for an
additional $ 5,000. The result of the study could be either favorable or unfavora-
ble. They would like to constract a decision tree and indicate its appropriate con-
ditional monetary values.

8. P.T. Segoro Mas Surabaya yang bergerak dibidang pengangkutan barang menda-
pat tawaran untuk 2 (dua) trayek, satu ke Jakarta dan satu ke Cirebon. Karena ke-
terbatasan waktu PT.Segoro Mas hanya dapt melayani 1 (satu) penawaran. Lang –
ganan Jakarta dapat menjamin angkutan bolak balik, sedangkan langganan Cire-
bon mempunyai kemungkinan 50% memberikan angkutan bolak balik. Ongkos
angkut ke Jakarta (bolak balik) Rp 2.500.000,00 sedang ongkos angkut ke Cire-
bon adalah Rp 2.000.000,00 (sekali jalan) dan Rp 4.000.000,00 bolak balik.
PT.Segoro Mas dapat menelpon kantor angkutan di Cirebon dan menanyakan apa
–kah situasi angkutan ramai atau sepi. Bila situasi angkutan ramai kemungkinan
untuk mendapat angkutan bolak balik menjadi bertambah. Bila angkutan ramai
ada kemungkinan kantor di Cirebon mengatakan “Baik” 90%. Bila angkutan sepi
ada kemungkinan kantor angkutan akan mengatakan “Tidak Baik”sebanyak 70%.
Apakah yang harus diputuskan oleh PT.Segoro Mas?.
Soal teori antrian (kelanjutan dari teori pohon keputusan)

9. Suatu perusahaan rumah makan “Niki Echo” mempunyai pegawai bagian

belakang 3 orang dan pegawai bagian depan 10 orang. Karena rumah makan ini
makin laku maka pengunjung makin banyak terutama pada waktu jam jam makan.
Menurut pengamat kepala bagian pelayanan sering terjadi pegawai bagian depan
harus menunggu. Dan dari pengamatan setiap jam dan yang dilakukan berulang-
ulang didapat:
------------------------------------------------------------------
Butuh waktu pelayanan Jumlah
-------------------------------------------------------------------
5 menit 10 orang
6 menit 25 orang
7 menit 30 orang
8 menit 35 orang
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Rata-rata waktu setiap kedatangan adalah 3 menit. Simulasi dilakukan 2 jam,
dari jam 10.00 sampai dengan jam 12.00.
Tabel I
Angka random untuk menentukan kedatangan pegawai depan

01/. 1328760932 11/. 0341624374 21/. 5432643970 31/. 7488495633

02/. 9792045062 12/. 8754526075 22/. 0319864177 32/. 3730192541
03/. 8330657291 13/. 9063217837 23/. 1962754456 33/. 5143067882
04/. 2094543721 14/. 1415623709 24/. 3624376719 34/. 6472133289
05/. 7404668731 15/. 2632745698 25/. 7470198566 35/. 5690487311
06/. 3049985743 16/. 3270994621 26/. 9801546732 36/. 4138765224
07/. 6638526088 17/. 8432765266 27/. 4361608257 37/. 8047961270
08/. 4375110659 18/. 7018654392 28/. 2817993260 38/. 2677526336
09/. 5089324677 19/. 6654701883 29/. 8431265579 39/. 5182965403
10/. 5366784012 20/. 5490826137 30/. 6313984025 40/. 6322701899

-waktu kedatangan mandor ada angka 3

-gaji bagian belakang per-jam = Rp 300,-
-gaji bagian depan per-jam = Rp 400,-
-waktu simulasi 2 jam,untuk pelayanan yang datang 1: dilayani awal periode,
kalau datang 2 orang: yang pertama awal periode, yang kedua awal menit ke-3,
kalau datang 3 orang: yang pertama awal menit pertama,ke-2 pada menit ke-2,
ke-3 :pada menit ke-3.

Tabel II
Angka random untuk menunjukkan waktu pelayanan pegawai depan

01/. 2204765762 11/. 9…… 21/. 2…… 31/. 9…….. 41/. 9…….
02/. 8…. 12/. 2…… 22/. 1…… 32/. 1……. 42/. 2…….
03/. 9…. 13/. 8…… 23/. 9…… 33/. 8……. 43/. 6……
04/. 1…. 14/. 3…… 24/. 8…….. 34/. 2……… 44/. 5…..
05/. 6…. 15/. 3…… 25/. 2…….. 35/. 6…….. 45/. 4…..
06/. 5…. 16/. 7…… 26/. 7…….. 36/. 4…..… 46/. 7….
07/. 0…. 17/. 4…… 27/. 5…….. 37/. 5…..… 47/. 2…..
08/. 4…. 18/. 5…… 28/. 6…….. 38/. 7…..… 48/. 8….
09/. 7…. 19/. 6…… 29/. 4…….. 39/. 3…….. 49/. 6….
10/. 1…. 20/. 0…… 30/. 0…….. 40/. 0…….. 50/. 4….
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(soal teori antrian dengan simulasi)
Hitung Total Cost / hari untuk waktu yang hilang dari soal tsb diatas.

soal dengan metode matematis (lihat rumus):

10. Kita dihadapkan pada masalah bagian penyimpanan peralatan (tool room) yang
melayani para karyawan bagian bengkel (machinist). Para machinist ini datang di
tool room rata-2 sebanyak 18 orang per jam; dimana distribusi kedatangan ini
merupakan distribusi Poisson. Pelayanan di tool room dapat diselenggarakan
dengan kecepatan 20 orang per jam dengan satu orang karyawan (attendant).
Machinist dibayar Rp 500,- per jam dan attendant di tool room =Rp 300,-/jam.
Bagaimana menentukan jumlah optimal karyawan yang harus melayani bagian
penyimpanan peralatan (tool room) tersebut.

11. Seorang Grosir dihadapkan pada problem ttg berapa banyak susu yang harus
disediakan untuk memenuhi permintaan langganan esok harinya. Contoh diatas
sangat sederhana ,ttp menggambarkan prinsip-prinsip dasar dari Nilai Ekspektasi
dan Nilai kondisional. Catatan / rekaman Penjualan milik Grosir  Tabel 1.
Dengan harga pembelian $ 8 / bungkus susu dan harga Penjualan $ 10 / bungkus
susu.:

Tabel 1 : Historical Demand

Total demand Number of days each

Per day demand level was
Recorded
25 cases 20
26 cases 60
27 cases 100
28 cases 20
---------
200
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pilih stok terbaik ,penyelesaian dgn EMV & EOL; gmb. Pohon keputusannya

12. Room registration in the dr.Soegeng Hospital have been recorded for the past
nine years. Management would like to determine the mathematical trend of
patient registration in order to project future occupancy. This estimate would help
 the hospital determine whether a future expansion will be needed. Given the
following time series data, develop a regression equation relating registration to
time. Then forecast 1992 registration. Room registrations are in the thousands:
1982 : 17, 1983: 16, 1984: 16, 1985: 21, 1986: 20,
1987 : 20, 1988: 23, 1989: 25, 1990: 24.

13. Ken Reed is the principal owner of Reed Exploration,Inc. Presently Ken is
considering the possibility of purchasing some more equipment for Reed Explo-
ration. His alternatives are shown in the following table.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Equipment Favorable Market Unfavorable Market
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Drexel D1 $ 300,000 - $ 200,000

Oiler J $ 250,000 - $ 100,000
Texan Valve $ 75,000 -$ 18,000

For example, if Ken purchases a Drexel D1, and there is a favorable market, he
will realize a profit of $ 300,000. On the other hand, if the market is anfavorable
Ken will suffer a loss of $ 200,000. But Ken has always been a very optimistic
decision maker.

a/ What type of decision is Ken facing ?

b/ What decision criterion should he use?
c/ What alternative is best?.

14. Demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has
increased steadily in past few years, as seen in the following table.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR HEART TRANSPLANT
SURGERIES PERFORMED
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 45
2 50
3 52
4 56
5 58
6 ?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The director of medical services predicted six years ago that demand in year 1
would be for 41 surgeries.

a/ Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of 0,6 and then
with one of 0,9, to develop forecasts for year 2 through 6
b/ Use a three-year moving average to forecast demand in years 4, 5, and 6
 c/ Use the trend projection method to forecast demand in years 1 through 6
d/ With MAD as the criterion, which of the above four forecasting approaches
is best?

15. Kebutuhan suatu jenis obat di rumah sakit Suharto per triwulannya adalah
dengan persamaan garis:
Y = 10 + 3 X
dimana X = triwulan,

triwulan -1 th 1989 = 0
triwulan -2 th 1989 = 1
triwulan -3 th 1989 = 2
triwulan -4 th 1989 = 3
triwulan -1 th 1990 = 4, dst.

dan Y = demand per triwulan

demand akan obat tersebut adalah musiman, dan index untuk triwulan 1,2,3 & 4
adalah masing-2 :0.8; 1.00; 1.30; and 0.90
Forecast demand untuk masing-2 triwulan th 1990. Kemudian disesuaikan dng.
variasi index musiman triwulannya.

16. Beth Israel Hospital’s Cardiac Care Unit (CCU) has five beds,which are virtually
always occupied by patients who has just undergone major heart surgery. Two
registered nurses are on duty in the CCU in each of the three eight hour shifts. About
every two hours (following a Poisson distribution) one of the patients requires a
nurse’s attention. The nurse will then spend an average of 30 minutes (exponentially
distributed) assisting the patient and updating medical records regarding the problem
and care provided. Since immediate service is critical to the five patients, two
important questions are: what is the average number of patients being attended by the
nurses, and what is the average time a patient spends waiting for one of the nurses to
arrive at bedside?

17. Chuck Bimmerle is considering opening a new foundry in Denton, Texas,

Edwardsville,Illionis, or Fayetteville, Arkansas, to produce high-quality rifle
sights.He has assembled the following fixed and variable cost data:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location Fixed Cost/year per unit cost
Material Labor V.Cost overhead
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Denton $ 200,000 $0.20 $ 0.40 $ 0.40
Edwardsville 180,000 0.25 0.75 0.75
Fayetteville 170,000 1.00 1.00 1.00

a/. Graph the total cost lines

b/. Over what range of annual volume is each facility going to have a competitive
advantage?
c/. What is the point volume at the intersection of Edwardville & Fayetteville?

18. Southern Hospital Supplies, a company that makes hospital gowns, is considering
capacity expansion. Its major alternatives are to do nothing, build a small plant, build
a medium plant, or build a large plant. The new facility would produce a new type of
gown, amd currently the potential or marketability for this product is unknown. If a
large plant is contructed and favorable market exists,a profit of $100,000 could be
realized. On the other hand, a large plant would result in a $90,000 loss with an
unfavorable market.If a medium plant were to be constructed a $60,000 profit would
be realized with a favorable market. A $10,000 loss would result from an unfavorable
market. A small plant,on the other hand, would return $40,000 with favorable market
conditions. If the market conditions were unfa-vorable, the hospital supply company
would lose only $5,000. of course, there is always the option of doing nothing.
Recent market research indicates that there is a 0.4 probability of a favorable market,
which means that there is also a 0,6 probability of an unfavorable market. With this
information, the alternative that will result in the highest expected monetary value
(EMV) can be selected: …..

19. Break Even untuk 2 (dua) produk: lihat asumsi  > dari 1 produk, product mix
dan sales mix.
Produk A Produk B

Penjualan /produksi …….1.000 unit 2.500 unit

Total V.C. …………….Rp 500.000,- Rp 3.500.000,-
Total F.C ……………...Rp 200.000,- Rp 1.200.000,-
P /unit …………………Rp 1.000,- Rp 2.000,-

Berapa : BE – nya.
Sales-mix
Product-mix

20. *Room registrations in the dr.Soedono hospital have been recorded for the past
nine years. Management would like to determine the mathematical trend of Px
registration in order to project future occupancy. This estimate would help the
hospital determine whether a future expansion will be needed. Given the
following time series data, develop a regression equation relating regristations to
time. Then forecast 1992 registrations. Room regristations are in thousands:
1982 : 17 1987 : 20
1983 : 16 1988 : 23
1984 : 16 1989 : 25
1985 : 21 1990 : 24
1986 : 20
Soal ini sama dengan soal no.12