Regional Climate Downscaling Under CORDEX

Southeast and the Southeast Asia Regional

Climate Change Information System (SARCCIS)
Fredolin Tangang PhD
Professor, National University of Malaysia
Visiting Professor, Ramkhamhaeng University, Thailand
IPCC WG1 Vice-Chair (AR5, 2008 – 2015)

The 2nd International Conference on Global Warming and Climate Change 2019 (GlobeWarm
’19), 3-4 October 2019, Bangkok, Thailand
Workshop components:

• Talk I: Regional Climate Downscaling, CORDEX Southeast Asia and highlights of

SARCCIS (Prof. Fredolin Tangang, National University of Malaysia)
• Talk II: Application of CORDEX Southeast Asia Data: Some case studies in Thailand
(Asst. Prof. Dr. Jerasorn Santisirisomboon, RU-CORE, Ramkhamhaeng University,
Bangkok)
• Talk III: The Southeast Asia Regional Climate Change Information System
(SARCCIS): Technical aspects (Dr. Kamphol Promjirapawat / Mr. Ratchanan
Srisawadong)
Outline

• Introduction to SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia Project and why this

project is important for adaptation to impact of climate change
• Key findings of SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia high-resolution and multi-
model simulations
• Brief highlights of SEACLID/CORDEX SEA Data Portal: The Southeast Asia
Regional Climate Change Information System (SARCCIS)
• For devising
adaptation measures,
practitioners and
decision makers must
have access to
information on how
CC / CV affect

Sustainable Development
important sectors

• Climate data must be

available at local scale
to be used as input to
impact model

• Together with
vulnerability and
exposure, climate
hazard information
form the basis to
determine the level of
risk of impact to CC /
CV
IPCC AR5 SYR 2014
 The amount of information supporting conclusion regarding
observed and projected impacts (Table24.2 IPCC AR5 WGII)

Lack of climate
change impact
assessment
studies in
Southeast Asia
region

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

 “Nesting”
regional
climate model
Downscaling

Resolution
100 - 300 km

Much higher resolution e.g. 25 km,

Too coarse to be used at local scale 10km, 5km
and as input to impact model

Inputs to impact models

Outputs of RCM can be used
e..g. hydrology model, crop
to provide climate change
model, economic model,
scenarios at local scales
forestry model etc

Users must have access to these hundreds of TB model data and

must be disseminated in efficient way
 Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD)
Landmasses in GCM and RCM

Dynamical Climate Downscaling

GCM

RCM
(25 km)

Requirement for multiple GCMs, RCMs and emission scenarios making RCD
is a resource-expensive and time-consuming exercise
 RCM outputs
• Model ensemble
combination of
several models

• Confidence &
Robustness
More models can
give more
BEST CASE confidence to
←--------- PROJECTIONS ---------→
model output &
NEAR MID FAR robustness in the
FUTURE FUTURE FUTURE
projection

Modified from http://bit.ly/Projection_Image & courtesy Julie Dado

• Model spread
Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
(CORDEX)

14 Domains across the globe

CORDEX Southeast Asia is the
(www.cordex.org) 14th domain
Phase 1: 25 km x 25 km
(completed)
Phase 2: 5 km on smaller sub-
domains (on-going)
 Thailand

Philippines Lao PDR

Indonesia Cambodia

Malaysia Vietnam

UK Australia Sweden South Korea Hong Kong Germany Japan

The Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID) / CORDEX Southeas
Asia Project
Fredolin Tangang
Project Leader/Coordinator, CORDEX Southeast Asia

• 14 Countries, 20 Institutions
• Phase I: 25 km x 25 km ~4yrs [Nov 2013 – June 2018; completed]
• Funded by APN and funds from individual countries
• Second phase 2017 – 2020 (further downscaling to 5 km x 5 km on 5
sub-domains; Led by Dr Jerasorn Santisirisomboon, RU-CORE)

(http://www.ukm.edu.my/seaclid-cordex)

Courtesy: UKMO
 Phase I: CORDEX SEA set of Regional Climate
Simulations (12 GCMs and 7 RCMs)

The most comprehensive multi-model simulations conducted in Southeast Asia!!

CORDEX-SEA scientific publications

Three of many papers that have

been published based on
CORDEX-SEA, many more
soon!!

https://www.apn-gcr.org/resources/items/show/1886
 Karmalkar &
Bradley (2017)

Based on
SEACLID/CORDEX
SEA ensemble mean,
SEAsia reaches 1.5
and 2.0C much later
than global
Projected Temperature Anomaly under Global Warming of 1.5oC,
2.0oC and 4.0oC
Projected
changes in
mean rainfall
over Southeast
Asia based on
multi-model
and high
resolution
simulations of
CORDEX
Southeast Asia
Projected
changes on the
Consecutive
Dry Days by
the end of 21st
century
Projected
changes on the
frequency of
Extreme
Rainfall by the
end of 21st
century
Projected
changes on the
Intensity of
Extreme
Rainfall by the
end of 21st
century
Launching of
SARCCIS and
LOI signing
between UKM
& RU, May 7,
2018
SARCCIS is jointly managed and
operated by

http://www.rucore.ru.ac.th/SARCCIS
ESGF data worldwide node
SARCCIS supports Robust Policy
Development & Decision-Making Process
in Southeast Asia
Policy
Robust Climate Information development,
Free access to user IAV community Decision-
Detailed information
at local scales Assessment of risk making
Assessment of
impacts of future Together with
process,
climate change information on Robust policy,
exposure &
vulnerability, risk of
Adaptation
assets, critical measures,
sectors, community
can be determined
SDGs,
SFDRR
 SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia

products & Other

Gridded Observed

various data portal

useful resources from
Bias
Case

High-

5km),

multi-
multi-

model
Studies

outputs
scenario

Correction
resolution

model and
km, 5 km x
(25 km x 25

Southeast Asia Regional Climate Change

Information System (SARCCIS)

Free data dissemination to user community, prepare documentation

on data reliability including uncertainties, provides training on how to
access, analyze and interpret the data
IAV Groups
 SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia

products & Other

Gridded Observed

various data portal

useful resources from
Bias
Case

High-

5km),

multi-
multi-

model
Studies

outputs
scenario

Correction
resolution

model and
km, 5 km x
(25 km x 25

Southeast Asia Regional Climate Change

Information System (SARCCIS)

Free data dissemination to user community, prepare documentation

on data reliability including uncertainties, provides training on how to
access, analyze and interpret the data
IAV Groups
http://www.rucore.ru.a
c.th/SARCCIS
Thank you